The Daily Brief

Notes & Analysis

The Pulse: What can we learn from the Railway hack? · The Pragmatic Engineer
The Railway hack underscores growing risks of unsecured AI models being exploited, with attackers leveraging "abliterated" models lacking safeguards to compromise cloud platforms. Railway’s… more »↳ earlier: Don't Worry About the Vase, 2026-10-23

Nvidia and the World Without Jensen · SemiAnalysis
Jensen Huang’s abrupt departure as CEO—likely forced by U.S. national security concerns over GPU smuggling to China and his ties to Chinese entities—removes the central architect of Nvidia’s… more »↳ earlier: quoththeraven.substack.com, 2026-11-10

What Huawei’s Horinger data center reveals about China’s compute gap · Epoch AI
Huawei’s Horinger data center, one of China’s largest AI facilities, delivers an estimated 81,000 H100-equivalent (H100e) of AI compute—just 7% of SpaceX’s Colossus 2 in Tennessee—highlighti… more »↳ earlier: SemiAnalysis, 2026-11-07

Buying a cheap premium grocer, and a London bank (SFM, MTR.LN) · Acid Investments
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM) trades at ~10x FY26E P/E and ~6x EBITDA despite best-in-class margins, strong cash flow, and a clean balance sheet, pricing in overly pessimistic margin and comp… more »↳ earlier: The Compounding Tortoise, 2026-10-22

Sea Limited Q3 2026 Earnings Review · GabGrowth
Sea Limited delivered a record Q3 with $8.58B revenue (+43.4% YoY) and strong segment growth, but EPS missed at $0.78 vs. $0.81 estimate, sparking volatility; core concern is Shopee’s aggres… more »↳ earlier: Six Sigma Capital, 2026-11-11

The Quiet Rail Supplier · DB Silverfox
OMER’s 2025 revenue growth of 8.9% was offset by a 2.8% EBITDA decline, as cost increases—particularly a 29.5% jump in subcontracting expenses for ongoing projects like Orient Express—outpac… more »↳ earlier: The Compounding Tortoise, 2026-11-05

Ottobock: A high-quality MedTech business with a complicated equity story · Heavy Moat Investments
Ottobock is a high-quality MedTech leader in prosthetics and orthotics with a durable, recurring revenue model, exposure to structural tailwinds (ageing population, tech innovation), and a p… more »↳ earlier: Best Anchor Stocks, 2026-10-23

New Position: A Quality Compounder That Just Fell 18% · Schwar Capital
Schwar Capital initiated a new position in a high-quality compounder following an 18% post-earnings selloff on 10x average volume, driven by a revenue decline in a lumpy segment while the co… more »↳ earlier: Schwar Capital, 2026-11-09

Industry Primer: Alternative Asset Managers · Latticework
Listed alternative asset managers generate steady fee income from committed capital, insulating them from short-term fund performance, but 2026 saw broad share price declines (6–35%) despite… more »↳ earlier: Latticework, 2026-11-06

Industry Primers Podcast: Alternative Asset Managers, Part Two: The Deep Dive · Latticework
The podcast deep dive explores the structural advantages and fee dynamics of leading alternative asset managers, emphasizing their high margins, capital-light models, and scalability. Key di… more »↳ earlier: Latticework, 2026-11-06

Industry Primers Podcast: Alternative Asset Managers, Part One: The Story · Latticework
The podcast traces the evolution of the alternative asset management industry through key founder-led firms—including KKR, Blackstone, Oaktree, Brookfield, EQT, and Partners Group—highlighti… more »↳ earlier: Latticework, 2026-11-06

Buybacks vs dividends – what actually creates shareholder value? · Undervalued Shares
The article argues that buybacks create more shareholder value than dividends when shares are undervalued, as repurchases increase earnings per share and long-term returns by reducing shares… more »↳ earlier: The Acquirer's Multiple, 2026-11-10

A 40% Compounder’s First Bump: Timing or Trouble? · Best Anchor Stocks
The article analyzes a high-growth Japanese small-cap—compounding revenues and operating profits at ~40% annually—recently announcing its first share buyback, raising its dividend, and targe… more »↳ earlier: The Onveston Letter, 2026-10-25

Jensen Is Out: Can Nvidia Work Without Him? · Crack the Market
Jensen Huang’s abrupt resignation as CEO—driven by governance issues tied to personal conduct and geopolitical tensions—triggers a derating of NVDA, not a fundamental collapse; the stock, no… more »↳ earlier: Cassandra Unchained, 2026-11-12

This Week in Special Situations: Coursera, eToro, Fluor, Trade Desk · Latticework
Coursera (COUR) presents a compelling activist-driven opportunity, trading at a $150M EV despite holding $775M in cash and Treasuries and zero debt, with Pale Fire Capital accumulating a 14.… more »↳ earlier: Giles Capital, 2026-10-26

SpaceX: The Rocket Company That Became an AI Bet · StockOpine
SpaceX’s recent transformation into an AI infrastructure player via its merger with xAI has redefined its value proposition, with AI segment revenue ($7.6B in Q3’26) now surpassing its legac… more »↳ earlier: MBI Deep Dives, 2026-10-21

Borr at $3: The Best Way to Play the Jackup Cycle, or Just the Most Levered One? · Undervalued and Undercovered
Borr Drilling (BORR) trades at ~$3, offering levered exposure to a potential jackup rig recovery, but faces near-term pressure from post-Iran conflict demand delays, weak Middle East tenders… more »↳ earlier: Trader Ferg, 2026-10-29

The Entertainment Economy · Off the Charts
Goldman forecasts 5.8% annual growth in global music revenues, driven by streaming’s dominance and underpenetrated European markets, creating upside potential for music-related assets. Sport… more »↳ earlier: Under-Followed-Stocks, 2026-10-26

“There’s A Dragon in My Garage!” · Nonconsensus
Core thesis: Despite claims of AI as a transformative productivity tool, there is a conspicuous absence of measurable productivity gains in economic data, suggesting AI's impact remains over… more »↳ earlier: The Acquirer's Multiple, 2026-11-01

East Asia Today · East Asia Econ
China's slowing credit growth and declining M1 point to mounting deflationary pressures into 2027, while a widening current account surplus in Q3 provides partial offset. Korea’s October TOT… more »↳ earlier: East Asia Econ, 2026-10-15

Korea – first signs of a peak · East Asia Econ
October's dip in Korea's terms of trade signals a potential peak in the recent surge in national incomes, though it remains unclear if this is temporary noise or the end of the first growth… more »↳ earlier: East Asia Econ, 2026-10-27

Asian Market Sense - Friday 13... what could go wrong? Could get China Loans data today, otherwise a data light day. US initial claims rose; does anyone care? · Asian Market Sense
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang resigned following board scrutiny over personal conduct, sparking uncertainty despite no immediate impact on operations; stock rebounded from -14% to -4.3% but remain… more »↳ earlier: Asian Market Sense, 2026-11-05

Premium Trading Alert · Haymaker
Haymaker identifies a structural shift in AI infrastructure demand, favoring high-bandwidth memory (HBM) suppliers amid tightening supply and rising AI chip complexity. The firm highlights M… more »↳ earlier: StockOpine, 2026-10-29

Fly on the Wall with Shrub & Cloudbear · Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
Post is satire with no actionable market view; disclaims financial advice and underscores fictional, humorous intent. No ticker, data point, or investment thesis provided. more »↳ earlier: Cassandra Unchained, 2026-10-19

IS S&P 500 THE ONLY INFLATION HEDGE? · Capital Flows and Asset Markets
The core argument is that the S&P 500 has effectively become the "default risk-free asset" due to structural forces—dominant share buybacks, favorable tax policy, and U.S. energy independenc… more »↳ earlier: Value Zoomer, 2026-11-09

Haymaker Daily · Haymaker
U.S. shale—driven by fracking—has accounted for ~80% of global oil supply growth over the past 15 years, with the Permian Basin responsible for nearly all of the ~10 million bpd increase. Th… more »↳ earlier: libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org, 2026-11-05

“NVIDIA MUST DIE!” - Part Deux · Reminiscences of a Shrub Operator
The post argues that Jensen Huang and NVIDIA could face a reputational or market setback ahead of a major U.S.-China meeting and the planned Anthropic (ticker: "ANT") IPO in 2026, drawing co… more »↳ earlier: sinocism.com, 2026-11-12

Say It Ain’t So - NVIDIA on Fire - Read all About It! · Cassandra Unchained
The post argues that NVIDIA’s leadership is grappling with a self-inflicted crisis: aggressive, poorly managed financing deals—reportedly led by Jensen Huang’s son-in-law—and a looming suppl… more »↳ earlier: Stratechery by Ben Thompson, 2026-11-10

QXO Inc Earnings Update: Q3 2026 · Six Sigma Capital
QXO’s Q3 2026 results, driven by TopBuild and Kodiak acquisitions, delivered $4.9B in sales (+79.4% YoY) and $557M adjusted EBITDA (+85%), but adjusted EPS fell due to higher interest expens… more »↳ earlier: Six Sigma Capital, 2026-10-28

Trading Post November 12, 2026: Enough is Enough, NVIDIA, SMH vs SOXX, Earnings Quality · Cassandra Unchained
DOJ is probing NVIDIA (NVDA) for antitrust and export violations, with prior allegations of $2.5B in GPUs illegally routed to China via Super Micro (SMCI), raising concerns over governance a… more »↳ earlier: quoththeraven.substack.com, 2026-10-29

Floor & Decor 3Q’26: Déjà Vu, But Priced For A Lost Decade · MBI Deep Dives
Floor & Decor (FND) cut its 2026 guidance again, with comp and EBITDA outlooks lowered, marking the sixth downward revision in three years—highlighting a persistent pattern of overpromising… more »↳ earlier: Speedwell Research, 2026-11-08

Looking Back at Another Successful Thesis · The Value Road
DoubleU Games increased its tender offer for DoubleDown Interactive from $11.25 to $16.25 per ADS after the original bid became untenable relative to net cash levels; a revised fairness opin… more »↳ earlier: Cassandra Unchained, 2026-11-02

Weekly Investing Roundup – News, Podcasts, Interviews (11/13/2026) · The Acquirer's Multiple
No substantive content provided in the post—only section headers without details. No core thesis, actionable insight, ticker, or data point to summarize. Monitor for future updates with conc… more »↳ earlier: The Acquirer's Multiple, 2026-11-05

Magnificent 7 Valuations: Could the AI Chip Boom Turn Into a Bust? · The Acquirer's Multiple
The Acquirer's Multiple podcast argues that the "Magnificent 7" stocks, particularly those riding the AI chip boom like NVIDIA (NVDA), are priced for perfection with elevated EV/EBIT multipl… more »↳ earlier: murrayhunter.substack.com, 2026-11-02

US Housing Market: Why High Mortgage Rates Are Freezing Home Sales · The Acquirer's Multiple
High mortgage rates are suppressing US home sales by creating a “rate lock” effect, where homeowners avoid selling to preserve sub-2020 mortgage rates, limiting supply and distorting the mar… more »↳ earlier: quoththeraven.substack.com, 2026-10-29

Links - 11/12/2026 · Value Investing World
The post emphasizes that all sound investing is inherently value investing, centered on the principle that price paid must be less than intrinsic value received. Citing Buffett, it argues th… more »↳ earlier: macroops.substack.com, 2026-10-30

(MEMO) Memo - Sentiment Change Is In The Air · HFI Research
The core thesis is that the ongoing Iran conflict creates an unsustainable status quo, with escalating risks to oil supply if Iran responds to attrition by the U.S. with disruptive actions l… more »↳ earlier: murrayhunter.substack.com, 2026-11-06

🇺🇸 Kalshi Will Pay Up To $120,000 To Study GTA VI’s Economy And Stream It To Young Men · Global Fintech Insider
Kalshi is offering up to $120,000 for a researcher to play and stream GTA VI, analyzing its in-game economy, signaling a novel customer acquisition strategy targeting young male gamers—its c… more »↳ earlier: The Science of Hitting, 2026-11-06

Deep Dive: EVS ($EVS) – When Your Brand Becomes a Job Title · Quality Investing with Rene Sellmann
EVS ($EVS) trades at €18, down 68% from its 2013 peak, with a depressed 4.3x EV/EBIT multiple and 6.7% dividend yield (4.7% net after Belgian withholding tax), reflecting market pessimism ov… more »↳ earlier: Boredom Baron, 2026-11-11

He Spent $100 Million On A Sky Computer - EP 96 Mikkel Vestergaard Frandsen · Core Memory
Mikkel Vestergaard Frandsen, founder of Sceye, is deploying high-altitude airships (HAPS) for persistent telecommunications, imaging, and broadband delivery, leveraging long-endurance flight… more »↳ earlier: Kairos Research, 2026-11-09

Jensen Out, Email Down. · The Data-Driven Investor
Market sentiment turned bearish on big tech amid speculation of a near-term top, with Nvidia earnings and the upcoming Anthropic IPO looming as key catalysts. The post cautions against short… more »↳ earlier: Asian Market Sense, 2026-11-11

What Could Go Huang? · The Lund Loop
The Lund Loop argues that sentiment around semiconductor firm Huang (likely referring to NVIDIA) is overly optimistic, with stretched valuations and rising competitive pressures from AI chip… more »↳ earlier: Stratechery by Ben Thompson, 2026-11-10

What’s next for health in the U.S.? · yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com
The post argues that post-midterm U.S. health policy must prioritize affordable care, transparency, and trusted leadership through bipartisan cooperation to break cyclical dysfunction. While… more »↳ earlier: yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com, 2026-11-04

Jensen Huang Ouster at Nvidia: Bigger Governance and Coming Financial Train Wreck than Hank Greenberg Exit from AIG · nakedcapitalism.com
The post argues that speculation around Jensen Huang’s potential ouster from Nvidia—though unfounded—reveals deeper governance risks and overreliance on a single leader, echoing the destabil… more »↳ earlier: Cassandra Unchained, 2026-11-12

Brad and Noah discuss the reindustrialization of America · noahpinion.substack.com
Brad DeLong and Noah Smith argue that U.S. reindustrialization should be driven primarily by geopolitical and security needs—reducing reliance on China for critical supply chains—rather than… more »↳ earlier: gulzar05.blogspot.com, 2026-11-01

Why China’s Election Interference Falls Short in Taiwan · asiasentinel.com
Recent opinion polls indicate China-backed candidates in Taiwan’s “nine-in-one” local elections are underperforming, challenging Beijing’s influence efforts. Market implication: diminished C… more »↳ earlier: andrewsinger.substack.com, 2026-11-05

Data Centers Really Are Ripping You Off · nakedcapitalism.com
Data centers are exploiting regulatory loopholes to shift infrastructure upgrade costs onto residential ratepayers, inflating electricity bills. This cost-shifting, already evident in states… more »↳ earlier: Crack the Market, 2026-11-05

An Artist Animation Needs · animationobsessive.substack.com
The article profiles Russian animator Tatiana Kiseleva, highlighting her artistic significance and the revival of Soyuzmultfilm through her work on projects like *Prostokvashino* and *The Ti… more »↳ earlier: animationobsessive.substack.com, 2026-10-19

Sharp Tech on Video: Nvidia After Jensen Huang, Ominous News for American AI, D.C. Gets Its Revenge · Stratechery by Ben Thompson
The post introduces Sharp Tech’s new video format but offers no substantive analysis on Nvidia, AI, or D.C. policy—making it purely promotional. No actionable market view, data point, or inv… more »↳ earlier: Stratechery by Ben Thompson, 2026-11-06

Malaysia’s Deep Corruption The evolution of The Deep State · murrayhunter.substack.com
The post promotes a free PDF of Murray Hunter’s book *Deep Corruption: The Deep State*, which argues that systemic corruption in Malaysia has evolved into a deeply entrenched "deep state" in… more »↳ earlier: murrayhunter.substack.com, 2026-11-11

Can I Call You Dad Too? · thenewfatherhood.org
Sentimental narrative about adoptive fatherhood and presence over biology; no actionable market view, ticker, or data point. Story underscores cultural shift toward non-traditional families… more »↳ earlier: thenewfatherhood.org, 2026-11-06

AI Company Employees Should Unionize · astralcodexten.substack.com
AI researchers, due to their稀缺性和高议价能力，can leverage informal "concerted activity" protections to form employee unions or councils—without formal unionization—to push for safety measures, tran… more »↳ earlier: Philoinvestor, 2026-10-28

160th anniversary of Sun Yat-sen’s birth; US-China; Nvidia fallout; Social security · sinocism.com
Nvidia fallout continues amid U.S.-China tensions, with no immediate resolution despite Jensen Huang’s resignation; ongoing geopolitical friction remains a headwind for tech exposure. PBoC’s… more »↳ earlier: quoththeraven.substack.com, 2026-11-10

Delfingen: a family founded business which has a strong link to the car industry · frenchhiddenchampions.substack.com
Delfingen, a family-owned French supplier specializing in cable protection systems for both thermal and electric vehicles, stands to benefit from automotive electrification trends. However,… more »↳ earlier: Best Anchor Stocks, 2026-10-21

El-Sayed Laughs at the Muslim Brotherhood Because It’s Mostly Dead, Despite the Propaganda · nakedcapitalism.com
The post argues that the Muslim Brotherhood has been effectively dismantled since Egypt’s 2013 coup and no longer poses a threat, but Israel and the UAE perpetuate its mythos for geopolitica… more »↳ earlier: proximities.substack.com, 2026-10-26

‘This Is an Insane Scandal’: How Jensen Huang’s Downfall Could Change Everything · Derek Thompson
Jensen Huang’s resignation following revelations of an affair with Alice Huang—a Singapore-based executive and suspected Chinese intelligence asset—has triggered a $1+ trillion erosion in Nv… more »↳ earlier: quoththeraven.substack.com, 2026-11-10

✍️ Nvidia & S&P 500, The ‘3x L’ + AI FCF = Maverick Equities Charts of the Week #66 · maverickequityresearch.substack.com
Nvidia’s stock dropped 22%—erasing $1.2T in market cap—following CEO scandal-driven "key man risk," highlighting valuation dislocation as its 13.7x forward P/E now undercuts the S&P 500’s 19… more »↳ earlier: Crack the Market, 2026-10-23

Your Substack, now with more ways to customize · on.substack.com
Substack launched enhanced website design tools—featuring seven new themes, a mini-editor for quick tweaks, and a full editor for granular control over fonts, colors, and layout—enabling pub… more »↳ earlier: johnquiggin.com, 2026-11-09

Jensen Huang Resigns. Who Should Replace Him to Keep Nvidia Successful? · firstadopter.substack.com
Jensen Huang has resigned as Nvidia CEO following revelations of personal misconduct, including an affair with a subordinate and alleged ties to a Chinese spy, prompting the board to appoint… more »↳ earlier: Cassandra Unchained, 2026-11-12

Why Is Work Getting Worse? · nakedcapitalism.com
The post argues that despite job satisfaction in the UK remaining stable, employee well-being and perceived quality of work have sharply declined since the 1990s due to increased job insecur… more »↳ earlier: The MacroTourist, 2026-11-08

The World's Best-Prepared Patient · vitaliy.substack.com
The author argues that individuals must take proactive, data-driven control of their health by leveraging AI as a tool to augment—not replace—doctors, using continuous monitoring and central… more »↳ earlier: nakedcapitalism.com, 2026-10-22

AI #194: Spy Versus Guy · Don't Worry About the Vase
Claude Fable 5.2 is a top-tier model for complex tasks but faces skepticism due to underbaked aspects and strong competition from Opus 5.5 and Gemini 4 Carbon, which shows solid benchmarks b… more »↳ earlier: SemiAnalysis, 2026-11-02

Banking System Vulnerability: 2026 Update · libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org
Three of four Fed stress measures—capital, fire-sale, and run vulnerability—show rising banking system risks through 2026:Q2, driven by declining capital ratios, higher leverage, and unstabl… more »↳ earlier: Macro Musings, 2026-11-11

Deep Dive: Anthropic ($ANT) · marketsentiment.substack.com
Anthropic’s IPO at a ~$1.3T valuation (down from $2T) presents a high-stakes test for the AI trade, leveraging its safety-first positioning to capture enterprise clients—with 75% of revenue… more »↳ earlier: Crack the Market, 2026-10-28

I Still Think There's More Bad News Coming · quoththeraven.substack.com
The author argues that the Nvidia scandal—sparked by CEO Jensen Huang’s alleged personal and geopolitical entanglements—is far from resolved and could trigger prolonged market turmoil, parti… more »↳ earlier: Stratechery by Ben Thompson, 2026-11-10

Senator Moreno’s 100% Federal Tax on Data Center Incentives Would Usurp Sound State Sales Tax Policies · taxfoundation.org
Senator Bernie Moreno’s RECLAIM Act (S. 5689) proposes a 100% federal tax on state and local incentives for AI data centers, effectively nullifying sales tax exemptions for servers and chips… more »↳ earlier: taxfoundation.org, 2026-10-31

Senator Kelly’s Plan to “Make AI Work for Americans” Is Funded by Three Poorly Designed Taxes · taxfoundation.org
Senator Kelly’s proposed AI funding plan relies on three poorly designed taxes—on AI services, data center energy use, and stock buybacks—that risk distorting investment and innovation. The… more »↳ earlier: taxfoundation.org, 2026-10-31

The great economic theorist, Richard Posner (1939-2026) · Economic Forces
Richard Posner pioneered the economic analysis of law by arguing that common law evolves toward economic efficiency, offering a unified framework to explain diverse legal outcomes—reducing t… more »↳ earlier: nakedcapitalism.com, 2026-11-05

Podcasts

Odd Lots · Oct 26
How a Chicago Restaurant Has Stayed Open For Nearly Three Decades | Odd Lots — Richard Mott's first foray into hospitality was in the 1980s at the Uni… listen »

All-In Podcast · Nov 07
Midterm Blood Bath, $4T AI Sell Off, Data Center Freeze, What’s Next for Trump — *This episode was recorded Friday morning Bestie intros! Midterms pos… listen »

Dwarkesh Podcast · Oct 30
What Robert Caro learned about power after studying it for 50 years — 𝐄𝐏𝐈𝐒𝐎𝐃𝐄 𝐋𝐈𝐍𝐊𝐒 * Transcript: https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/robert-caro * Apple Podca… listen »

Behind the Balance Sheet · Nov 13
Will Anthropic Flop? Benedict Evans analyses its prospects — In a special edition of the podcast, Benedict Evans, technology analyst and writer, joins… listen »

EconTalk · Nov 09
Hubris, Humility, and the AI Revolution with Walter Isaacson — The people building artificial intelligence worry there’s a real chance it could doom u… listen »

Uncommon Knowledge · Nov 02
The Counter Revolution: Victor Davis Hanson on the Fall and Rise of Trump (Part 2/2) — How did Donald Trump go from political defeat and the aftermath… listen »

Invest Like the Best · Nov 11
GLP-1s Are a Bigger Business Than AI — In this episode of Invest Like The Best, Patrick O'Shaughnessy sits down with Zach Reitano, co-founder and CEO… listen »

The Meb Faber Show · Nov 06
The AI Narrative Is Hiding a Much Bigger Problem — Today's guest is Albert Edwards, Global Strategist at Societe Generale. In today’s episode, Albert… listen »

Books

The Psychology of Money: The transformative multimillion-copy personal finance bestseller
more »

Bad Blood: Secrets and Lies in a Silicon Valley Startup
more »

Die With Zero: Getting All You Can from Your Money and Your Life―A Revolutionary Approach to Maximizing Life Experiences Over — Bill Perkins
more »

Good to Great: Why Some Companies Make the Leap...And Others Don't
more »

I Will Teach You to Be Rich: No Guilt. No Excuses. Just a 6-Week Program That Works (Second Edition) — Ramit Sethi
more »

Profit First: Transform Your Business from a Cash-Eating Monster to a Money-Making Machine
more »

The AI Advantage: How Ordinary People Are Using AI to Build Extraordinary Lives
more »

The Intelligent Investor Third Edition: The Timeless Guide to Value Investing and Financial Wisdom for a Volatile Market — Benjamin Graham
more »

The Millionaire Next Door: The Surprising Secrets of America's Wealthy — Thomas J. Stanley Ph.D.
more »

Fanatical Prospecting: The Ultimate Guide to Opening Sales Conversations and Filling the Pipeline by Leveraging Social Sellin — Jeb Blount
more »

The Total Money Makeover Updated and Expanded: A Proven Plan for Financial Peace — Dave Ramsey
more »

Millionaire Mission, Revised and Updated: A 9-Step System to Level Up Your Finances and Build Wealth — Brian Preston
more »