The most contrarian call is Grizzly Research’s allegation that Pirelli (PIRC.MI) poses a national security threat due to its embedded Russian operations and technology ties ([25]). While most focus on AI, energy, or macro, this deep dive on a niche auto supplier frames corporate exposure to Russia as a systemic risk—amid peers who have already exited—making it a high-differentiation, high-risk thesis.
Today’s coverage meaningfully extends prior themes:
This is not new noise—it’s escalation.
Prime Minister Takaichi's zero-immigration policy, driven by a desire to preserve social cohesion, risks exacerbating Japan's demographic crisis and economic challenges. Without immigration, Japan faces a severe labor shortage, unsustainable pension systems, and the potential bankruptcy of rural municipalities, leading to a two-tiered economy where large corporations thrive while small businesses collapse. This could result in higher wages and concentrated corporate profits, potentially boosting the Nikkei, but at the cost of widespread economic and social disruption. (Tickers: ^N225)
Thesis/Argument: SpaceX's upcoming IPO is poised to be the largest in history, with a targeted valuation of $1.75T to $2T, driven by its revolutionary cost reductions in space launches and its diversified business segments in connectivity (Starlink) and AI compute. However, the valuation is extremely high at 94x P/S, and the company's reliance on the Anthropic deal for a significant portion of its AI segment revenue introduces risk.
Actionable Market View: Given the high valuation and potential risks, investors should approach SpaceX's IPO with caution. The ticker will be $SPCX, and the synthetic SPCX-USD contract on Hyperliquid is already implying a $2.2T valuation, suggesting the market is already pricing in significant optimism.
The thesis is that the Japanese company, with a market cap of ¥12.45b, is significantly undervalued at 0.6x TBV and 3.7x FCF, given its strong financials and growing operating business. The stock offers an attractive entry point, as the company's tangible assets and consistent cash flow generation suggest significant upside potential. Ticker: Not provided.
Ticker: VRT
Thesis: Vertiv Holdings (VRTX) is positioned as a leading player in the AI infrastructure buildout, with a unique integrated portfolio of power and thermal management solutions. The company is benefiting from the shift to liquid cooling and 800V DC distribution, driving significant revenue and margin growth. Despite a high valuation (46x 2026 EPS, 34x 2026 EV/EBITDA), the market underprices its recurring services revenue and strong competitive position, making it a compelling long-term investment.
Intrum, a debt collection company, announced a large capital increase last month, causing the stock to plummet 50%. The core thesis questions whether investors should accept dilution from a management with a history of destroying shareholder value or participate in the capital increase despite poor management alignment. Ticker: INTRM.
The post argues that the current AI boom shares similarities with historical technology bubbles, such as the dot-com bubble, where speculative investments in unprofitable companies led to a market crash. Despite strong returns in AI infrastructure companies, the author warns that high valuations and unsustainable capital expenditures by hyperscalers (e.g., Meta, Alphabet) could lead to a bubble burst. The actionable view is to be cautious of AI-related stocks, especially those with high valuations and no clear path to profitability, while identifying winners like Anthropic and OpenAI, which have strong revenue models and user bases.
The Hermit's 24th portfolio review highlights a strategic shift from concentrated bets to a more balanced and resilient portfolio, focusing on diversified commodities, high-operating-leverage tech, and programmatic market consolidators. The review covers updates on 24 companies, emphasizing the importance of finding compounders. Key actionable insights include the successful 1,184% return on Carvana (CVNA) and the transition to a professionalized fund structure for better risk management.
Family offices are increasingly concerned about geopolitical and macroeconomic risks, leading to a shift towards geographic diversification and multishoring strategies to mitigate political instability and regulatory shifts. Despite these concerns, their portfolios show a disconnect, with only minor adjustments to gold and commodities, and a notable increase in real estate allocations. AI, power, and related infrastructure are emerging as key investment themes, while confidence in the US dollar's reserve status is waning, with 65% expecting it to weaken.
The post argues that despite the hype, AI's impact on productivity and the economy is overblown and not materializing as quickly as predicted. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the implication is to be cautious about overvalued AI-related stocks.
Inflation pressures are rising due to the Middle East conflict, and real estate prices are surging in Tokyo and Seoul, with Taipei beginning to rebound. Monitor inflation-sensitive sectors and consider exposure to real estate in these markets. (Tickers: JREIT, SREIT)
China's gold price in Yuan is poised to break below the critical RMB30,000/oz level, driven by the PBoC's significant liquidity withdrawal of RMB 1.8 trillion (US$260 billion) over 12 weeks. This suggests a bearish outlook for gold prices in both Yuan and USD terms, potentially dampening China's gold buying momentum. (Ticker: GLD)
The MacroTourist argues that rising inflation and hawkish central bank policies will continue to pressure equity markets, particularly tech stocks. actionable view: Short NASDAQ-100 (QQQ) as tech valuations remain stretched despite recent pullbacks.
The yen is testing 160 to the USD again, and markets are concerned about potential U.S. tariffs on 60 trading partners, including China and the EU, over forced labor allegations. The OECD warns that prolonged Middle East conflict could lead to a global recession and higher inflation, with global growth potentially decelerating to 2.1% this year and 1.8% next year under a worst-case scenario.
Actionable View: Consider hedging against yen weakness and monitor U.S. tariff developments, which could impact global trade and economic growth. Tickers to watch: CIEN, LULU, 00113.HK.
Jesse Felder, a favored market commentator, argues that the current market dynamics, with a limited number of stocks hitting new highs while major indices set records, resembles pre-correction patterns. This suggests a potential near-term market pullback, warranting caution. (Ticker: SPY, QQQ)
The author argues that while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are showing strength due to supply constraints and economic activity, the current pro-labor environment and lack of faith in central banks and governments still favor gold. Despite the potential for copper to outperform in a free market, the author believes gold will continue to outperform, especially if treasury yields rise significantly. No specific ticker is recommended, but the thesis suggests maintaining or increasing exposure to gold (GLD) over copper (HG).
The BOJ governor's speech was notably hawkish, signaling potential shifts in monetary policy. In China, despite a weak official services PMI, the RatingDog/S&P version was strong, and PBC liquidity withdrawals indicate robust FX inflows in May, suggesting continued economic resilience.
Google's $80 billion equity raise to expand AI infrastructure signals intense competition in the tech sector, potentially crowding out other industries, as evidenced by high Info Tech allocations and low Consumer Discretionary allocations. The shift could push Treasury yields higher, making 10-Year TIPS with a 2.74% yield an attractive option for risk-averse investors.
The author is launching a second newsletter, Rebounders, focused on concentrated bets on quality names that have been soured by the market but have limited downside and significant upside potential. The Compounders portfolio, which has historically outperformed major indices, will continue to focus on quality companies with strong, steady growth and wide moats, held for the long term. The portfolio is currently composed of 20 equal-weighted positions, selected from a screened list of 250 companies, with a blended expected return of around 18% annually.
ASB Partners reported a net return of +1.1% in May and +14.4% YTD as of 5/31/2026. No specific actionable market views or tickers were provided.
The post highlights a bullish SaaS play, emphasizing strong setup and positive signals but lacks unique insights into the business. The core thesis is that the company is well-positioned in a growing market with solid fundamentals, making it a compelling buy. Ticker: XYZ.
Nat Stewart argues that micro-cap stocks, particularly those in the biotech and tech sectors, are poised for a significant turnaround due to undervaluation and improving fundamentals. The thesis is supported by recent insider buying and positive earnings surprises, with actionable opportunities in stocks like CytoDyn (CYDY) and Aethlon Medical (AEMD).
The Value Road is launching a Founding Member tier offering same-day access to deep-value and special situation analyses, a comprehensive research vault organized by ticker, and a private chat for real-time discussions. The tier, priced at $800 per year, aims to provide a structured and continuously updated resource for serious investors focused on neglected micro and nano-caps.
Ticker: TLF
Thesis: Tandy Leather Factory (TLF) is a niche market leader in leather and leathercraft products, trading at a deep value multiple of 0.25x cash-adjusted TB. Despite thin profitability and exposure to discretionary spending, the company has a strong balance sheet with net cash of $1.24 per share and a low EV of $9m. Potential upside scenarios, including margin expansion and a return to profitability, suggest a 26% CAGR to $4.72 per share by 2028, driven by a 5x EV/EBITDA multiple. The new CEO, Johan Hedberg, and significant shareholder Bandera Partners (35% ownership) are focused on operational improvements and cost management.
💥QVC: 'C' for Confirmation?💥
QVC Group Inc. (QVCG) and subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, proposing a plan that fast-tracks reorganization around the revolving credit facility and QVC Inc. notes, leaving preferred equity holders with ~$1.3b in claims largely uncompensated. The preferred equity holders are contesting the plan, alleging unfair treatment and a $400mm inter-company claims settlement that they view as a giveaway to QVC Inc. The combined hearing for plan approval is set for June 4, 2026, and is expected to be contentious. Ticker: QRTEA
Ticker: PIRC.MI
Grizzly Research argues that Pirelli’s continued operations in Russia, generating about 10% of its profits, pose significant national security risks due to close ties with Russian state-owned entities and potential technology transfers to the Russian military. The report suggests that Pirelli's Russian operations are more critical than disclosed, and the company's reluctance to exit Russia could lead to reputational and financial risks, especially as competitors like Nokian, Michelin, Continental, Goodyear, and Bridgestone have already divested and taken major write-downs.
Partners Group Holding AG is capping redemptions at 5% of net asset value per quarter in its evergreen private equity fund due to a surge in withdrawal requests to 9.8% in Q2, leading to an 18% drop in its stock price today. This aligns with Grizzly Research's previous concerns about the firm's valuation practices, suggesting potential overvaluation in its evergreen funds. (Ticker: PGHN)
Jeremy Grantham argues that the current market, particularly in AI, exhibits classic bubble characteristics, similar to past speculative episodes like the dot-com boom. While AI is a transformative technology, Grantham cautions that the intense competition and high valuations may lead to disappointing long-term returns, making it crucial for investors to distinguish between the technology's value and the speculative premium. Ticker: No specific ticker mentioned, but the "Mag 7" (likely referring to large tech stocks like AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, and TSLA) are highlighted as key players in this rally.
The post discusses using value-based options strategies, such as selling cash-secured puts, to capitalize on undervalued stocks. Specifically, it highlights Salesforce (CRM), which has fallen 40% YTD, as an attractive opportunity. By selling an August 2026 $150 put, investors can target a 15.1% annualized return, with a breakeven price of $144.90, well below the 52-week low. This strategy leverages high volatility and undervaluation to generate income and potentially buy the stock at a discounted price.
The post argues that despite numerous warnings and regulations, people will continue to believe in perpetual good times, leading to market booms and busts. The core lesson is that while these cycles are inevitable, the focus should be on managing risk and preparing for downturns rather than trying to prevent them entirely. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
Samsung and SK Hynix are set to distribute massive employee bonuses, with estimates reaching 30 trillion won by 2028, driving a surge in high-income discretionary spending. Shinsegae (KRX: 004170) is positioned to benefit significantly, with its Department Store segment (63% of revenue) and luxury exposure (35-40% of department store GMV) poised to see accelerated growth. Early consumer interest trackers and luxury brand data support this thesis, suggesting a strong tailwind for Shinsegae into 2027.
The post highlights the significant natural gas reserves off Newfoundland, estimated at 27.6 trillion cubic feet, which could position the province as a major player in the natural gas sector. Given Europe's current natural gas shortage, this resource could be crucial, but development hinges on political, regulatory, and economic factors. Ticker: No specific ticker mentioned, but watch for companies involved in Canadian LNG projects.
The market is underestimating the prolonged impact of the ongoing oil supply shock through the Strait of Hormuz, with a current effective deficit of 5 million barrels per day (bpd) that cannot be quickly resolved. This persistent deficit will force oil prices higher, acting as a tax on a slowing economy and potentially leading to a severe decline in stock prices, particularly in the S&P 500, which has been rising despite the crisis. (Ticker: SPY)
Financial conditions are tightening, pressuring asset prices, with the S&P 500 (SPY) down 0.60% and key tech stocks showing mixed performance (TSLA +2.23%, META -0.93%, NVDA -1.57%). Large traders are making notable index option trades, suggesting caution in the near term.
The Lund Loop argues that current market conditions and valuations may be signaling an opportune time to take profits, suggesting investors should consider cashing out and writing themselves a big fat check. No specific ticker is mentioned, but the core thesis is to be cautious and lock in gains given potential market risks.
Iran's military response to US actions has been stronger than anticipated, while Israel continues attacks in Lebanon despite a ceasefire. Iran's economy remains resilient against sanctions, performing comparably to Saudi Arabia, and rice prices in Asia are surging. Consider long positions in Iranian or Saudi energy stocks (e.g., ARAMCO) and Asian agricultural commodities (e.g., rice futures).
Xi Jinping is pushing for China to dominate six key future industries, backed by new State Council regulations that could impact domestic and foreign firms, as well as financial institutions and investors. The EU is considering tougher trade policies against China, and tensions are rising, with the recent expulsion of a New York Times journalist and reciprocal actions from the U.S. No specific tickers, but sectors like tech, semiconductors, and financials may see increased volatility.
The post highlights the significant natural gas reserves off Newfoundland, estimated at 27.6 trillion cubic feet, which could position the province as a major player in the natural gas sector. Given Europe's current natural gas shortage, this resource could be crucial, but development hinges on political, regulatory, and economic factors. Ticker: No specific ticker mentioned, but focus on Canadian energy companies and LNG exporters.
The post argues that Iran may possess nuclear weapons, despite a Fatwa prohibiting them, due to the existential threats from Israel and the U.S. This is supported by Iran's technological sophistication and potential collaboration with Pakistan and North Korea. If Iran demonstrates its nuclear capability, it could shift the balance of power and force Israel and the U.S. to reconsider their aggressive stance. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the geopolitical implications suggest increased volatility in defense and energy sectors.
Satyajit Das argues that oil-poor Asian countries are facing a severe energy crisis, which could lead to economic instability and financial market turbulence. He suggests that these countries need to diversify their energy sources and implement structural reforms to mitigate the impact, but the immediate outlook remains challenging. No specific tickers mentioned, but exposure to energy-importing Asian economies (e.g., India, Indonesia) should be approached with caution.
The post argues that Liu Cixin's "The Three-Body Problem" trilogy provides deep insights into the modern Chinese Communist Party's technocratic and brutal approach to survival and power, reflecting a worldview where only the most ruthless can thrive. This perspective highlights the stark contrast between the West and the CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, North Korea) and underscores the need for the West to recognize and adapt to this competitive reality. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the post implies a strategic focus on geopolitical risks and technological innovation.
The post highlights the abusive and corrupt practices of Thai police and prosecutors in criminal defamation cases against foreigners, often leading to wrongful arrests and financial exploitation. The actionable insight is that the Thai legal system's handling of these cases poses significant risks for foreign investors and travelers, potentially impacting tourism and foreign direct investment in Thailand. (No specific ticker or data point provided.)
Europe faces a looming energy crisis with annual energy prices expected to surge by 11% in May, exacerbating economic pressures. This could lead to heightened volatility in energy stocks and increased demand for alternative energy solutions, making companies like IBERDROLA (IBE) and ENEL (ENEL) attractive plays.
The author, once a proponent of the "Anti-monopoly" movement, now doubts its effectiveness, arguing that the movement's leaders, like Barry C. Lynn, attribute an overly broad range of social ills to corporate concentration, often without strong empirical evidence. The author highlights recent research showing that markups and employer concentration have not increased as much as claimed, and that corporate greed is not a significant driver of inflation. Actionable Insight: Be cautious about overestimating the impact of antitrust actions on market dynamics and economic outcomes. Ticker: None specific, but consider sectors like tech, meat processing, and pharmaceuticals where antitrust scrutiny is high.
Pakistan's efforts to broker international peace, such as the recent ceasefire between the US and Iran, contrast sharply with its ongoing domestic insurgency in Balochistan, where the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has intensified its attacks and formed alliances with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Despite massive military operations, the insurgency remains resilient, and Pakistan's credibility as a regional stabilizer is at risk. A shift from military to political solutions, addressing Baloch grievances and resource sharing, is crucial to achieving long-term stability. (Ticker: None)
The post highlights the ongoing absence of Xi Jinping from official media since May 26 and the continued security crackdown on any remembrance of the June 4th Tiananmen Square events, including in Hong Kong. No actionable market views or specific tickers are provided, but the political stability and censorship in China remain key risks to monitor.
The post highlights a bullish setup for a premium SaaS company, emphasizing strong signals and market dynamics that suggest upside potential. The core thesis is that the company's unique value proposition and market positioning make it an attractive buy, though the author lacks deep differentiation on the business. Ticker: NOT PROVIDED.
The post calls for community assistance to narrow down 162 book reviews to a dozen finalists by rating them 1-10 on a dedicated website built by Rob Ennals, a software engineer who blogs at Messy Progress and works on AI education. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point is provided.
Centrist Democrats secured a victory in California, while Trump suffered a loss and Schumer won in Iowa. Democratic insiders are turning against Graham Platner, signaling internal party tensions. No direct market impact or specific ticker noted.
Substack has introduced Reply Rules, allowing creators to set custom moderation guidelines for comments and replies, reducing the administrative burden and enhancing community engagement. This feature, combined with a machine-learning system that hides unwanted replies, empowers creators to maintain a more personalized and controlled environment, potentially boosting user engagement and content quality. (STOCK: SUBS)
The core thesis is that job dissatisfaction often stems from treating work as separate from personal meaning, rather than from having the wrong job. The concept of ikigai, which aligns one's passions, skills, societal needs, and financial viability, suggests that true fulfillment comes from designing a life that integrates these elements, rather than just optimizing external job factors. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
Thesis/Argument: Nvidia's new RTX Spark SoC brings data-center-grade AI capabilities to laptops, potentially disrupting Intel and AMD's x86 dominance. SpaceX's AI investments, particularly in Colossus, are significant and could bolster its IPO prospects. Frontier AI models, despite being only marginally better, can capture disproportionate value in high-risk, high-reward tasks. Token subsidies for AI models are unsustainable and will likely end, similar to the "all-you-can-eat" pricing models of the past. OpenAI's consumer-focused monetization strategy is facing challenges, echoing Dropbox's past struggles.
Actionable Market View:
The author, after decades in the markets, has decided to step away from active trading due to the realization that being fundamentally correct does not always translate to profitable trading. He emphasizes the importance of identifying trends and communicating ideas over active trading, noting that modern markets resemble a "digital casino on cocaine" and that clarity often emerges from less screen time and more thoughtful reflection. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the broader message is to focus on long-term, thoughtful analysis rather than constant trading.
The Supreme Court is ruling on key cases that could significantly impact President Trump's second-term agenda. Monitor potential market reactions and policy shifts, particularly in sectors like healthcare (XLV) and energy (XLE), as rulings could lead to regulatory changes.
The post argues that the proliferation of propaganda and false information in the post-truth era is eroding trust in humanitarian organizations, hindering their ability to protect civilians and save lives. This could impact NGOs and related sectors, potentially affecting stocks like those in the healthcare and social services, such as UNH or AET.
The market is experiencing a semiconductor stock bubble, with significant gains in companies like AMD, ASML, and Micron, driven by unprecedented demand and AI investments. However, the trade is extremely crowded, and cyclical risks remain, suggesting a potential sharp sell-off if earnings disappoint. The optimal strategy is to avoid the hype and look for undervalued opportunities elsewhere.
The post highlights the development of a new, improved vegetarian chopped liver recipe, emphasizing its savory, umami-rich flavor and high protein and fiber content. The author argues that this dish deserves more attention and shares the recipe with paid subscribers. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point is provided.
💥QVC: 'C' for Confirmation?💥
QVC Group Inc. (QRTEA) and its subsidiaries filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, proposing a plan that fast-tracks reorganization around the revolving credit facility and QVC Inc. notes, leaving preferred equity holders with minimal recovery. Preferred equity holders, holding ~$1.3 billion, are contesting the $400 million inter-company claims settlement, arguing it unfairly transfers value to QVC Inc. and leaves them with nothing. The combined hearing for the plan's confirmation is set for June 4, 2026, with significant objections from the preferred equity group and the UCC. The RCF lender group and QVC noteholder group have shifted, with traditional banks exiting and distressed debt investors increasing their stakes. Actionable View: QRTEA preferred equity remains highly speculative and likely to face further legal challenges.
The post addresses common misconceptions about sunscreen, emphasizing that while there is mixed evidence on its effectiveness against skin cancer, rigorous studies show a significant reduction in squamous cell carcinoma and melanoma with daily use. Sunscreen is also highly effective against photoaging. The FDA's recent passage of H.R. 5371 may lead to the approval of new, more effective sunscreen ingredients, such as bemotrizinol (BEMT). The best sunscreen is one that users will apply consistently and adequately. Actionable View: Consider investing in companies with a strong pipeline of new sunscreen ingredients, such as Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) or L'Oréal (LRLCY), as they stand to benefit from regulatory changes and increased consumer demand for advanced sun protection products.
The post argues that warning signs across the economy and financial markets, including high-yield bond sales, overvalued equities, and consumer debt, indicate ongoing stress, particularly in the private credit market. Two recent developments suggest this stress is spreading, signaling potential broader market implications. (No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.)
The Florida ballot proposal to reduce property taxes on primary residences could undermine the state's competitive tax structure, potentially leading to long-term fiscal issues. This could negatively impact Florida-based real estate investments and state revenue-dependent sectors. (Tickers: DHI, Lennar (LEN))
Chilean Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz discusses a recent tax reform aimed at boosting growth and competitiveness by simplifying the tax code and reducing corporate rates. The reform is expected to enhance Chile's attractiveness to investors, potentially benefiting companies like SQM (SQM) and Cencosud (CNCO).
Tax Prom, an annual gala in Washington, DC, is a key event for tax policy influencers and experts, set for November 19. While the event itself doesn't offer direct market insights, attending or monitoring it can provide valuable networking and policy trend information, which may indirectly impact sectors sensitive to tax changes (e.g., REITs, MLPs).
The post argues that wealth tax proposals, like the one in California, are risky due to their narrow tax base and limited lifespan, despite sympathetic causes. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.