The newsletter highlights strategies for staying visible to clients during pilot phases, integrating Linear with discovery tools for better project management, and the limitations of AI in automation. It also questions the value of Techstars for startups, suggesting that the benefits may not outweigh the costs for all companies.
The core thesis is that South Korea's stock market, particularly its smaller and mid-cap companies, offers opportunities for investors to find "hidden champions" — firms that dominate niche markets and generate high returns on equity. The actionable insight is to focus on companies with strong historical ROE, earnings growth, and share price performance, such as SK Hynix (000660.KS), Alteogen (215600.KS), and Samyang Foods (013170.KS).
China's new tax guidance on offshore trusts, effective immediately, marks a significant crackdown on wealth held abroad, with a 90-day amnesty for voluntary compliance. This move, alongside state-supported market interventions and strong fund inflows, signals a rebalancing effort, with the CSI 300 up 2.7% and HSI nearing 25,000. Key sectors to watch: Materials, Energy, and Financials, while Communication Services and Real Estate lag. Ticker: CATL, which executed the largest A-share buyback in history.
The Alpha Engineer recommends buying shares of Tesla (TSLA) due to strong Q3 earnings and robust demand for electric vehicles, projecting a 20% upside from current levels. The firm also suggests selling positions in Intel (INTC) amid weakening semiconductor demand and operational inefficiencies, anticipating a 15% downside.
The Alpha Engineer's stock ranking system, which targets microcaps and small caps, has identified new top stocks entering the top 5% of the ranking. The model portfolio is heavily weighted towards microcaps (80%), particularly those between $20M and $50M, which are key drivers of excess returns. actionable: Monitor and consider adding these newly ranked microcaps to the portfolio for potential high returns.
SUTL Enterprise (SGX: BHU) appears cheap with a market cap of SGD81mn, 1.1x book value, and a 5% dividend yield, but the investment case is complicated by a leasehold expiring in 2034 and a significant portion of its cash earmarked for an acquisition. The family control and minimal analyst coverage add to the risks, making this a small-account play.
Essential Properties Realty Trust (EPRT) is a high-quality, fast-growing net-lease REIT, but its premium valuation leaves little margin for error. We believe EPRT's growth will moderate to high-single digits and its credit is better than its "BB" rating suggests, but not recession-proof. EPRT is a buy on weakness, not to chase.
Alphabet (GOOGL, GOOG) is positioned as the leading hyperscaler that has already resolved the AI monetization question within its own P&L, driven by its strong advertising cash flow and robust cloud business. The company's Google Cloud grew 82% year-over-year to an annualized run-rate of $99bn with 35.6% operating margins, while its AI infrastructure, including TPU systems, is enabling significant cost advantages. The thesis is that Alphabet's full-stack AI positioning, combined with its massive token volume and enterprise relationships, makes it a compelling long-term investment despite the capital-intensive buildout.
Core Thesis: The post highlights the disconnect between strong fundamentals and disappointing stock performance in AI and semiconductor stocks, suggesting potential signs of market exuberance. The author argues that while AI is a real and transformative technology, some stocks may be running ahead of their fundamentals, especially given the high expectations and leverage in the market.
Actionable Market View: Be cautious with AI and semiconductor stocks despite strong earnings, as the market may be overvaluing them. Consider sectors with lower expectations, as they may offer better value. Tickers to watch: TXN (Texas Instruments) and MPW (Medpace).
The post curates a variety of insightful articles, videos, and podcasts focused on investment strategies, market trends, and industry insights. Key takeaways include the importance of patience in value investing, as highlighted by Peter Cundill, and a focus on sectors like AI, energy, and technology. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the content emphasizes the value of continuous learning and networking, with an upcoming Latticework 2026 summit in Chicago.
United Bank Limited (UBL) has transformed its balance sheet aggressively, growing deposits to Rs 6.1 trillion and becoming the most profitable bank in Pakistan. However, recent earnings are heavily reliant on a leveraged position in government securities, which makes the bank vulnerable to interest rate hikes, as seen in the significant drop in equity and capital adequacy ratio following a 100-basis-point rate increase. The stock trades at 2.7 times book value, with a 7% dividend yield, and the key to future returns lies in converting its deposit base into sustainable core earnings.
Core Thesis: The equity market is being driven downward by two key factors: rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions and the unwinding of AI capital expenditure (capex) momentum. The Houthi blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea and strikes on oil tankers have pushed Brent crude close to $100, exacerbating supply concerns with strategic reserves at 43-year lows. Meanwhile, AI capex, which had been a major driver of market gains, is now unwinding, leading to a re-evaluation of high-beta momentum stocks.
Actionable View: Consider raising cash and reducing exposure to high-beta momentum stocks, particularly those tied to AI capex. Oil and gas shares remain attractive due to tight supply conditions and geopolitical risks. Precious metals, especially gold and silver, show positive divergence despite higher real rates, suggesting they could be a safe haven if the current market dynamics persist.
The post questions the sustainability of the AI trade, particularly if major players like OpenAI or Anthropic falter, highlighting the lack of concrete answers to what happens to their $300bn compute backlog. The author criticizes the bullish view that demand can simply be shifted elsewhere and suggests that the recent 8% drop in the Nasdaq since Warren Buffett's investment in Google could signal a potential top for AI stocks. Oracle (ORCL) is cited as a cautionary tale, with its stock down 65% since "Labubu Larry" was conceived in September 2025, making it a potentially undervalued opportunity at $115.
The post argues that late-cycle economic signs, including a flattening yield curve and weakening global liquidity, are pressuring crypto assets like the BES$ basket (BTC, ETH, SOL). The 10-year US Treasury yield is poised to break out due to rising rate expectations, indicating a shift towards tighter monetary policy and increased investor appetite for safety. Ticker: BES$; Actionable View: Short BES$.
The core thesis is that the S&P500 and its components are showing signs of peaking, with technical indicators and retail trading behavior suggesting a potential shift to a more volatile and corrective phase. Key levels to watch include $61 for MAGS, and the broader market's equal-weighted and cap-weighted metrics. The actionable view is to remain cautious, given the confluence of seasonal volatility, geopolitical risks, and Fed rate hike concerns.
The MacroTourist warns that the current market environment is highly susceptible to liquidity shocks, emphasizing the need for caution in bidding, particularly in less liquid assets. The post suggests being wary of overpaying in the current volatile conditions and recommends maintaining a defensive stance, with a focus on high-quality, liquid assets. Ticker to watch: TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF).
1035 Capital Management's weekly update highlights Bimergen Energy Corporation (BESS) as a promising small cap stock transitioning from stranded power to scalable profits. The update also emphasizes the value of their Small Cap Report, which provides proprietary data and top-performing small cap stocks by sector.
The key thesis is that the upcoming week, particularly the FOMC meeting and major tech earnings, will be pivotal for market direction. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are both trading below their 50-day moving averages, signaling caution. Notable positions include a long on BTC, which is holding above the 50-day moving average but below the 200-day, and a continued bullish stance on emerging markets (EEM) despite recent underperformance.
Ticker: BATL
Thesis: Atlanta Braves Holdings (BATL) is more than just a baseball team; it's an integrated sports, media, hospitality, and real estate enterprise centered around the Atlanta Braves. The company's strategic move to Truist Park and The Battery Atlanta has transformed it into a year-round entertainment district, allowing it to capture a broader range of revenue streams, including ticket sales, concessions, hospitality, sponsorships, and real estate. In 2025, the company generated $732 million in revenue, with the Baseball segment contributing $635 million and the Mixed-Use Development segment contributing $97 million. The Braves' strong regional identity and historical success enhance fan loyalty, driving consistent revenue and making the business model more resilient.
Actionable View: Consider BATL as a diversified play on the sports and entertainment industry, with a unique focus on maximizing the economic value of a major sports franchise. The integrated model and strong brand loyalty make it a compelling long-term investment.
GOOGL's Quality Score of 66/100 reflects strong historical returns and robust revenue growth, but is capped by high capital expenditures and declining free cash flow conversion. Despite these issues, the stock is fairly valued, with strong future growth expectations and a solid balance sheet. Ticker: GOOGL.
Texas Instruments (TXN) demonstrated strong revenue growth of 23% YoY and 13% sequentially in 2Q'26, reinforcing the thesis that the company has reached a genuine inflection point, not another "head fake." Management's willingness to discuss price increases further supports this view, suggesting sustained positive momentum.
Summary:
Professor Tzachi Zach explores the collaboration between humans and AI in writing, using a detailed case study of a 26-version essay. The core thesis is that while AI can generate much of the text, the critical thinking, direction, and framing are primarily human-driven. The post introduces two measures of human contribution: a textual measure (24% human-typed) and a provenance measure (87% human-caused changes). The key takeaway is that understanding the human-AI interaction is crucial for evaluating the true authorship and quality of AI-assisted writing.
Actionable Insight:
For investors in AI and content creation sectors, this study highlights the importance of human oversight and direction in AI-generated content, suggesting that companies with robust human-AI collaboration frameworks may have a competitive edge. Tickers to Watch: NVDA, GOOGL, MSFT.
The post argues against the notion of an impending U.S. natural gas shortage, highlighting the industry's ability to consistently increase production despite low prices. While acknowledging Matthew Smith's concerns about growing demand leading to a high-price crisis by 2028, the author finds the thesis partially credible but skeptical about the severity of the shortage. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the post suggests maintaining a balanced view on natural gas investments.
Core Thesis: The AI boom is being misinterpreted as a technology cycle when it is actually a credit-driven real estate cycle, similar to the 2008 financial crisis. This misalignment means that AI infrastructure, like data centers, is vulnerable to the same supply-demand imbalances and leverage risks that characterize real estate cycles, leading to potential devaluation and financial strain when demand growth slows.
Actionable Market View: Investors should be cautious of AI-related stocks, particularly those heavily leveraged in infrastructure, as they are exposed to the same risks as real estate, including fixed costs and potential defaults. Tickers to watch: hyperscalers and AI infrastructure providers.
The post argues that the correlation between crude oil and its refined products, a critical input in pricing spread options, is highly variable and often diverges significantly from the commonly used full-sample value of 0.677. This variability, especially during market stress, can lead to significant mispricing of spread options, with prices ranging from $3.30 to $7.78 for a three-month at-the-money crack spread option, depending on the chosen correlation. The actionable insight is that during extreme market stress, the correlation can actually decrease, contrary to the equity market pattern, highlighting the importance of dynamic correlation assumptions in option pricing.
The post argues that the best investment ideas often come from unique, non-traditional research methods rather than conventional modeling and sell-side analysis. It highlights Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) as a case study, noting the company's heavy marketing spend and direct-to-consumer telehealth model, which could present a compelling short opportunity given the high customer acquisition costs and market valuation.
OWLT: Owlet, Inc. - Predicting a Sale
The post argues that Owlet, Inc. (OWLT) is likely to be acquired due to several factors: a failed leadership transition, a declining stock price, a looming going concern warning, and venture capital investors needing an exit. Despite being a category leader with an FDA-cleared product and solid revenue, the company's inability to turn around its financial performance and the urgency for liquidity make a strategic sale the most probable outcome. Potential buyers include Philips, given its strong overlap in distribution and healthcare expertise.
The core thesis is that DCF models, while useful, often oversimplify the non-linear and unpredictable nature of business growth, leading to flawed valuations. Quality investors, who buy and hold for growth, must be wary of the straight-line assumptions in DCFs, as they can mislead about the true value and resilience of a company. The actionable insight is to compare the terminal value derived from a perpetuity growth model with a terminal multiple to ensure consistency and to avoid over-relying on market-derived multiples.
Cwal (At Full Gallop) is a 1996 film that explores themes of independence and personal fulfillment through the lens of a horse trainer's life. While the post doesn't offer direct market insights, it underscores the value of individualism and self-determination, which could resonate with investors looking for companies that prioritize unique value propositions or strong leadership. No specific ticker or data point is provided.
The post argues that while unions criticize GOP policies for being anti-worker, they fail to address their own leadership issues and the ineffective support from the Democrats. This highlights a broader dysfunction in labor advocacy, which could impact union-backed stocks like AFL (AFL) if labor movements weaken further.
The post argues that while US natural gas production has consistently exceeded expectations, growing demand could lead to a supply shortage and high prices by 2028-2030, according to Matthew Smith of Chronometer Partners. Despite skepticism, the author finds merit in Smith's thesis and suggests monitoring natural gas prices and demand trends closely. Ticker to watch: UNG (United States Natural Gas Fund).
The core thesis is that long-term assumptions about U.S. equity returns, often pegged at 8% annually, may be overoptimistic, given that recent decades have been unusually favorable due to falling bond yields and rising valuations. The actionable market view is to diversify portfolios beyond equities, incorporating assets like gold and equities with less market correlation, to mitigate risks in a potentially less favorable future.
Core Thesis: The U.S. is experiencing a natural gas glut due to increased oil drilling, but export capacity is nearly maxed out, leading to cheap domestic natural gas prices while international prices remain high. This creates a significant arbitrage opportunity and geopolitical leverage.
Actionable Market View: Consider investing in U.S. natural gas producers (e.g., XOM, CVX) and companies involved in expanding LNG export infrastructure (e.g., CHTR, DTE). The current mismatch in supply and export capacity is a critical trend with a high risk/reward profile.
The post argues that while AI has surpassed human capabilities in specific domains like mathematics and coding, its broader impact on the economy and daily life has been incremental rather than transformative. The author suggests that intelligence may be subject to diminishing returns, with AI's improvements becoming marginal as it approaches the theoretical limits of cognitive tasks. Despite this, AI's replicability and the ability to scale compute and physical robots could still lead to significant productivity gains, akin to another industrial revolution.
Actionable Insight: Investors should focus on companies leveraging AI for scalable cognitive and physical tasks, such as robotics and data center infrastructure, rather than expecting a sudden, dramatic shift in the economy. Tickers to watch: NVIDIA (NVDA), ABB (ABB), and Alphabet (GOOGL).
The core thesis is that the S&P500 and its components are showing signs of peaking, with technical indicators and retail trading behavior suggesting a potential shift to a more volatile and correction-prone market. Key levels to watch include $61 for MAGS, and the S&P500's equal-weighted and cap-weighted indices, which are both signaling a possible larger consolidation phase. The actionable market view is to remain cautious, given the backdrop of expensive valuations, geopolitical tensions, and the risk of further Fed rate hikes.
Summary:
Trip.com has been fined RMB5.179 billion by China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) for monopolistic practices, including RMB3.521 billion in fines and RMB1.658 billion in confiscated illegal gains. This significant penalty will likely have a lasting negative impact on Trip.com's reputation and stock performance. The 12 key themes for South East Asian travel and tourism in 2026, as outlined by Asia Travel Re:Set, emphasize uncertainty, domestic tourism, and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the context of the Middle East conflict and its impact on long-haul travel costs.
Satellite imagery confirms the evacuation of U.S. military aircraft and equipment from Al Udeid and Al Dhafra airbases in Qatar and the UAE, respectively, following sustained Iranian attacks. This withdrawal, which has cost billions, limits the U.S. ability to launch air strikes on Iran, potentially reducing near-term military tensions and impacting defense contractors like Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT).
The escalating Gulf conflict, involving Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and potential US-Iran tensions, is driving oil prices above $100 per barrel and disrupting global supply chains, posing significant risks to Malaysia's economy. Malaysia, despite being a net oil exporter, imports significant refined petroleum products and is vulnerable to higher energy and input costs, which could strain government subsidies and fiscal health. Key sectors like petrochemicals and agriculture face rising raw material and fertiliser costs, necessitating urgent policy actions to diversify supply sources and build resilience. (Brent Crude: BNO)
The post argues that the correlation between crude oil and its refined products, a critical input in pricing spread options, is highly variable and often diverges significantly from the commonly used full-sample value of 0.677. This variability, especially during market stress, can lead to significant mispricings, with the same option's value ranging from $3.30 to $7.78 based solely on correlation assumptions. The actionable insight is that during extreme market stress, the correlation can drop, leading to potential mispricings and arbitrage opportunities in spread options. (Ticker: WTI, Product Basket)
Simon Russo, a trader endorsed by Jack Schwager, emphasizes the importance of building a disciplined trading process for a future version of oneself, likening it to constructing a cathedral for a stranger. In the current market, U.S. Dollar Futures (DX1!) have successfully retested prior resistance, and the Nasdaq (NQ1!) has fallen back to its consolidation range, with key support at the 200EMA near 26,800. The Macro Ops Portfolio is maintaining a risk-defined short position in the indices.
The paper "Network Momentum across Asset Classes" by Pu, Roberts, Dong & Zohren (2023) introduces a novel trading strategy that leverages network momentum, where the momentum of connected assets in a dynamic network of 64 futures contracts across four asset classes (commodities, equities, fixed income, and currencies) is used to predict future returns. The strategy achieves a Sharpe ratio of 1.51 and 22% annual return (2000-2022), outperforming traditional momentum strategies and showing low correlation (65%) with classic momentum. The key insight is that cross-class connections, particularly between bonds, currencies, and commodities, significantly enhance performance.
The post emphasizes the importance of being contrarian in investing, highlighting that investing in the S&P500 during market turmoil can yield an average 40% return after one year with a 100% win rate. It also stresses that investing is not gambling but requires a long-term owner's mindset and extensive reading, as advocated by Charlie Munger. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the focus is on quality companies with wide moats.
Claude Opus 5 is positioned as a cost-effective and faster alternative to Fable 5, with significant improvements over Opus 4.8, especially in agentic coding and long-horizon knowledge work. While it lacks the full cyber capabilities of Mythos 5 due to deliberate training limitations, it sets new benchmarks in safety and alignment, with a 99% reduction in safety classifier triggers and improved resistance to prompt injection. Ticker: ANTH (Anthropic)
Core Thesis/Argument: The post recounts a personal experience of surviving an apartment fire, focusing on the emotional and logistical aftermath, including the author's coping mechanisms through food and the supportive actions of her husband.
Actionable Market View/Ticker/Data Point: No direct market view, ticker, or data point is provided. However, the narrative highlights the importance of resilience and support systems in crisis situations, which can be indirectly relevant to assessing consumer behavior and sentiment in affected communities.
The post highlights that energy stocks have kept pace with the Mag-7 tech giants since 2021, despite an inverse correlation with tech. Utilities have lagged due to higher interest rates, and traditional energy equities are discounting below-normal oil prices. LNG, IPPs, midstream, and downstream sectors have outperformed, while IOCs, E&Ps, and oil services have room for improvement.
The US-Saudi nuclear deal signals a shift from a fixed non-proliferation standard to a more flexible, politically driven approach, potentially undermining the "gold standard" set by the 2009 US-UAE agreement. This could lead to a regional scramble for more permissive nuclear deals, with countries like South Korea, Japan, Brazil, and others reassessing their positions, while also complicating US strategic alliances and increasing leverage for regional actors like Iran and the UAE. Actionable Insight: Watch for increased diplomatic activity and potential renegotiations of nuclear agreements, particularly in the Middle East and Asia. Tickers to Monitor: KEPCO (015760.KS), Areva (AREVA.PA), and Rosatom (MCX:ROSN).
Harris Kupperman argues that the AI boom is unsustainable and nearing its peak, drawing parallels to historical capital-intensive projects like canals and railroads, which ultimately led to significant capital impairment. He believes that AI spending will slow, potentially causing a broader market decline, and is positioning the fund to benefit from second-order opportunities, such as technical colleges that will see increased demand for reskilling workers displaced by AI. Tickers to consider: technical college operators like Apollo Education Group (APOL) and Strayer Education (STRA).