[dry-run excerpt] Josh Woodward is the head of Google Labs, the Gemini app, and AI Studio. He has spent over 17 years at Google and oversees its longest-running and largest labs team, whose products include NotebookLM (now Gemini Notebook), Project Genie, and Flow. His job is to find, experiment with, and scale new AI products, and he has built one of the most distinctive product cultures in the industry for genera…
[dry-run excerpt] Article type: Quarterly update Basic Market capitalisation: ~A$57m, October 12, 2026; source: Yahoo Finance Average daily trading volume: ~200k shares over the 90 trading days ending October 12, 2026; source: Yahoo Finance Company: PharmX Technologies Limited Ticker / exchange: PHX / ASX Research stance: Mixed Meaning of stance: Positive operational progress, but based on FY26 financials, valuatio…
[dry-run excerpt] The Latticework Monday Morning Briefing is our weekly “Guide to the Markets” for long term-oriented investors. It is sent on a separate mailing list (complimentary to members). If you do not wish to receive it, opt out here . We have a great agenda for Latticework 2026 (November 10-11). The summit features fireside chats, panel discussions, idea pitches, and a group dinner. Capacity is strictly li…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Kevin Dunlap on Unsplash Introduction Over the weekend, as I was sorting out the Stripe accounting for this Substack, I found my thoughts wandering to the general topic of innovation in payments, and, because of my general interest in the topic of inflation, I got the inspiration for this rather quick article posing a simple question that I think is surprisingly complicated. Technological…
[dry-run excerpt] In a land of investors with no view. The one eyed CIO with imagination is king. I say that because I’m kind of amazed. I’ve participated in two PM/HNWI/FO best ideas conferences in the last two weeks and listened to over 40 investment professionals stand up and share their best investment ideas on stocks, FX, commodities, economics, technology and macro trends. Both events were fun, with great peo…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to another edition of the Capital Employed Newsletter. To enjoy all the content we publish in full consider becoming a paid subscriber. Subscribe now Exclusive stock pitches by fund managers → #143 - Orlando Muyshondt (Elena Partners) 📗 #142 - Christian Putz (ARR Investment Partners) 📗 #141 - Dylan Marrello (Marrello Capital) 📗 #140 - Dean and Deiya (Pernas Capital) 📗 #139 - Sébastien Laga…
[dry-run excerpt] “I’m no genius. I’m smart in spots—but I stay around those spots.” - Tom Watson Sr. Subscribe now *Main Portfolio Snapshot* *I am NOT a financial advisor. I’m sharing my investing journey. Not investment advice. Do your own research.* As of 10.10.2026 As of 10.10.2026 As of 10.10.2026 Holding since: Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Issue covered today: EU-China auto trade, machine tool orders in Japan, trade for the first ten days of October for Korea, and September reserve money data in Taiwan. Also (again) a link to the podcast I did last week with Macro Hive.
[dry-run excerpt] A lot of hopeful policy pronouncements related to the oil markets have come in recent days, and yet, the screens suggest it ain’t worth a hill of beans. If anything the physical oil market looks to … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Recent weekly moves in Federal Reserve liquidity raise a basic but important question: how much monetary tightening is actually reaching the financial system? Fed funds alone do not measure the pace of US monetary tightening. Rather collateral conditions, bond volatility, the dollar and yield-curve signals are better policy indicators. The investment twist is that this may not just be a bond story…
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[dry-run excerpt] China's auto trade balance with Asia and the EU, the manufacturing upturn in Japan, another large current account surplus in Korea, and further acceleration in Taiwan's exports. Also, I was very happy to have the chance to go back on the Macro Hive podcast, with the link included here.
[dry-run excerpt] I don't think the China-EU sectoral deal means a China-EU CNY deal is coming. The cycle continues to improve in Japan. Export momentum in Korea and Taiwan remain strong, with more signs of spillover into inflation in Taiwan. Links to all last week's research, as well as my latest podcast appearance.
[dry-run excerpt] Last week ended on a bit of a whimper as the incremental AI news got digested, with some folks surprised at the new numbers and AI manics largely ignoring it as known. Either way, things stayed pret… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] When Ralph Lauren hired P&G veteran Patrice Louvet as its CEO in May 2017 , the brand appeared to be at a make-or-break juncture. Louvet’s appointment followed the abrupt departure of his predecessor, Stefan Larsson, who had held the CEO role at Ralph Lauren for less than 18 months. ( WSJ on Larsson’s hiring : “The choice of an outsider as CEO comes as Ralph Lauren is trying to shore up its busine…
[dry-run excerpt] There was a piece on the Tampa Bay Rays in the WSJ about how they’ve tipped Moneyball upside down. They’re bunting, stealing bases, hitting ground balls… basically playing old school small ball, with great success: they won 98 games and are now in the ALCS with a chance to move on to the World Series. This “base hit” strategy (a team after my own heart) has surprised the baseball world. Tactics li…
[dry-run excerpt] This week I was mostly busy writing, and I encourage everyone to read the post I put out on Wednesday, Short Thoughts: The AI Cloud Oligopoly, Stages of Grief & a Flashing Bear Market Indicator, subtitled Other Peoples’ Money, Market Breadth & Market Structure, The Difference This Time I’m always chasing a certain standard I am seeking to establish here. Thank you all for your feedback. I am conti…
[dry-run excerpt] In March 2008, Floyd Norris of the New York Times wrote about the Big 4 (and the next tier firms) contradictory claims regarding their global networks versus their approach to liability for affiliate firms’ bad acts. I wrote about Norris’ column at the time. Norris tells the story of the global networks based on the litigation regarding BDO and Banco Espiritu Santo. BDO’s lawyer actually argued ag…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash With a dearth of macroeconomic news this past week — market pricing for a Fed hike in October now stands at just a 17.2% — we can turn to some more restructuring-oriented headlines. Mega chapter 11 bankruptcy cases may be in short supply but filings are, in fact, happening. Here, as reported in ABL Advisor and provided by Epiq AACER , are the stats: Source: ABL Adv…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Matthew Henry on Unsplash Key Statistics EV/EBIT = 26.5x ROE = 17.2% Debt/Equity = 193% FCF Yield = 1.9% Dividend Yield = 3.3% Market Cap = $161.15 billion The Company NextEra Energy (NEE) is one of … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below, we will be previewing the upcoming week’s events and providing a portfolio update as usual. Format for what is covered in this weekly preview: A Look at the Indices Key Upcoming Economic Events Upcoming Earnings Charts Current Portfolio Holdings Sizing | Cost Basis | Timeframe | Planned Moves Closing Thoughts (Scroll to here for my Market Commentary) …
[dry-run excerpt] This week’s Acquirer’s Multiple® Large-Cap screen highlights attractive valuations across energy, financials, materials, healthcare, technology and media. Energy remains particularly prominent, accounting for four of the 10 cheapest stocks . However, Synchrony Financial (SYF) remains the cheapest company overall, trading at an Acquirer’s Multiple of just 2.4x . The Acquirer’s Multiple® compares en…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed: Cash-Secured Puts Explained: Get Paid to Buy Stocks at a Discount The Options Wheel Strategy: Generate Income With Puts and Covered Calls Real Options Trades: Covered Calls on Blue Owl and Puts on ServiceNow Selling Put Options on Undervalued Stocks: Fiserv and Alexandria Real Estate How to Evaluate Options Trades…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Jeff Weniger discussed: Is the Stock Market Already Crashing Beneath the Surface? Rising Bond Yields: The Biggest Threat to Stocks? Why the Magnificent Seven Are Holding Up the Stock Market Are Long-Term Treasury Bonds Finally Worth Buying? The Hidden Risk Behind the AI Earnings Boom Jake’s Veggies: What Australia’s Cane Toad Disaster Reveals Abou…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Sunday’s Idea Brunch , your interview series with great off-the-beaten-path investors. We are very excited to interview Chris Colvin! Chris is the portfolio manager of Breach Inlet Capital , a Charleston, South Carolina-based investment manager that he launched in March 2016. Breach Inlet runs a concentrated portfolio of small cap companies undergoing transformation. Before launching Br…
[dry-run excerpt] I have more questions than answers. I am going to present you with three charts, offer some explanation, and I want you to try to make sense of this. The first chart is the Brent short position versus global onshore crude oil inventory: This is the first time in history with the lowest visible onshore global crude oil inventory data and the highest relative Brent short positioning. We first saw th…
[dry-run excerpt] Anna and Ben both have 100,000$ to invest, and both pick the same 20 stocks. Anna puts the same amount into every stock: 5,000$ each. Ben puts in different amounts. He puts more into the stocks he likes most and less into the others. A year later, every stock has done exactly the same in both portfolios. Anna and Ben still end up with different results. Ben carries more risk than Anna, and on aver…
[dry-run excerpt] “Our tobacco model continues to deliver sustainable growth in net revenue and adjusted operating profit. This translates into earnings per share growth and robust cash flow, underpinning strong returns for shareholders.” - Imperial Brands Pre-Close Trading Update FY26 Leo Guida, Collapse, 1975, etching I’ve touched on it at least once before, but the key point to keep in mind is that Imperial Bran…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to The Bear Cave! The last premium articles for paid readers were “ Problems at Jackson Financial ($JXN) ” and “ More Problems at Ethos (LIFE) .” Our next special investigation is scheduled for Thursday, October 15. Subscribe now New Activist Reports Jehoshaphat Research published on PROG Holdings (NYSE: PRG — $1.21 billion), alleging that looser lending standards and optimistic loss assum…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Airam Dato-on on Unsplash Why are so many Americans not getting married—or not even dating, in the first place? The share of 40-year-olds who have never been hitched has quadrupled since 1980, as Americans get married later, or not at all. This US Census data shows that 80 percent of women born in the 1940s were married by age 25, compared to 30 percent of women born in the 1990s. It’s no…
[dry-run excerpt] ‘The recurring hero of the ancient Greek world was the man who was willing to pay any cost for a cause worthy of his loyalty.’
[dry-run excerpt] Personal Day — No Update
[dry-run excerpt] In the 2026 midterms, congressional leaders of both parties are drawing very big money from megadonors, while small donors barely register.
[dry-run excerpt] Technological and material investments are being mobilized to preserve the expectation that a particular version of the present can be sustained into an increasingly unstable future.
[dry-run excerpt] Share Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s Budget 2027 announcement that the national minimum wage will rise from RM1,700 to RM2,000 in June 2027 was widely welcomed as a step toward better living standards. Yet the simultaneous exemption for micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) with annual turnover below RM50 million has sparked sharp criticism. This carve-out risks creating a two-tier labour ma…
[dry-run excerpt] There are two important trends that are likely to impact cross-border capital flows for the foreseeable future. The first is the already high and increasing public debt burdens and persistently high budget deficits across the developed world. The second is the growing efforts to reshore manufacturing and reduce the dependency on China. The US is at the forefront of both these trends. Both are havi…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to Asia Tech Review, your curated digest to keep up to date with tech news across Asia. Firstly, apologies to our subscribers. The last week in Singapore was intense and we missed two issues of ATR. But we’re back with major news for DeepSeek, Manus, Moonshot AI, Revolut and more. I’ll recap the Token2049 event later this week when there’s a chance. Thanks for your patience, time and …
[dry-run excerpt] A Hayao Miyazaki concept sketch for Rowlf , courtesy of the book Nausicaä Prehistory Welcome! It’s a new Sunday edition of the Animation Obsessive newsletter. Here’s the agenda for today: 1. Rowlf and Miyazaki’s turnaround. 2. Animation newsbits. 3. The last word. With that, let’s go! 1. Transforming In 1980, Hayao Miyazaki turned 39 years old. He was just shy of middle age, but he’d made almost n…
[dry-run excerpt] When I posted a piece on the latest failure of the US Navy a while back, I predicted that I wouldn’t be changing any minds. That was one of my safer predictions, confirmed almost immediately by Robert Farley at Lawyers, Guns and Money, Farley declined to respond, saying “whatever his other virtues, Dr. Quiggin is not a serious voice on naval questions” . I wasn’t surprised by this. Farley is the e…
[dry-run excerpt] Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform , and for my monthly email newsletter . For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here .
[dry-run excerpt] This reads better in your browser - so click on the title above to do so… Charts of the Week: Quote of the Week: “Supreme excellence consists in breaking the enemy’s resistance without fighting.” — Sun Tzu READS OF THE WEEK Difference between open- and closed-minded people (FS Blog) FT – How AI Tempts the Lazy Mind LISTENS OF THE WEEK Macro Hive – Jay Pelosky Hidden Forces – Rana Foroohar WATCHES …
[dry-run excerpt] Share Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim recently admitted what many on the ground already feel, that the 2027 federal budget cannot single-handedly resolve Malaysia’s economic woes or substitute for deeper structural and governance reforms. He is right. The aggregate numbers look respectable, with GDP growth hovering around 5 percent, foreign direct investment flowing into selected corridors, stock mar…
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[dry-run excerpt] Introduction This “Librarian Capital’s Monthly Letter” tracks our “Select 15” model portfolio, which we have run since the start of 2023. The portfolio showcases our most-preferred stocks, quantifies our view of the relative attractiveness of each, and closely resembles how we manage capital in real life, including more than 80% of my personal assets. We last published an update after H1 . Since t…
[dry-run excerpt] In the journal Immunity a paper with an obscure title was published on October 9th, 2026. It was entitled “Single-cell analyses of global cohorts outline determinants of immune aging and link the ratio of GZMK+ to GZMB+ Tem cells to health trajectories ,” which I think is one of the worst titles I have ever seen for, ironically, one of the most important papers in the science of aging. I still don…
[dry-run excerpt] Rubis is the last holding where Bolloré has a stake which I hadn’t studied. This mistake is now being corrected. It has a commandite structure which is a red flag in itself as we are not aligned with the owners. But Bolloré (with other minority shareholders) have been trying to shake things up. And needless to say that Bolloré has a know-how in putting an end to a commandite structure (look at Lag…
[dry-run excerpt] This week was going to be a further exploration of the impact of AI on our society, but (preview) I simply didn’t have it in me to publish a largely somber observation written ENTIRELY by AI in a week that I want to express gratitude to the (largely) human contributions that are bringing Tier1 to launch. A consideration of the “non-human” contributions flows naturally. The objective at Tier1 is to…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Sunday’s Idea Brunch , your interview series with great off-the-beaten-path investors. We are very excited to interview Chris Colvin! Chris is the portfolio manager of Breach Inlet Capital , a Charleston, South Carolina-based investment manager that he launched in March 2016. Breach Inlet runs a concentrated portfolio of small cap companies undergoing transformation. Before launching Br…
[dry-run excerpt] When I was first experimenting with chatbots in the earliest release of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, a friend asked me, not quite joking, to use it to predict her future. A few weeks ago, I heard a speaker at a conference call AI a “black box.” Then he called it magic. I understand the impulse in both instances, and these anecdotes stick with me. AI is extremely boring computer science. Of all the things wor…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Anne Nygård on Unsplash With a dearth of macroeconomic news this past week — market pricing for a Fed hike in October now stands at just a 17.2% — we can turn to some more restructuring-oriented headlines. Mega chapter 11 bankruptcy cases may be in short supply but filings are, in fact, happening. Here, as reported in ABL Advisor and provided by Epiq AACER , are the stats: Source: ABL Adv…
[dry-run excerpt] In early September Meta launched Muse in the US. Among many other things, this AI agent checks if the holiday rental you are about to book is listed somewhere else for less money, and it tells you. Same house, same photos, same owner, but 10-15% cheaper on the owner’s own website. In the month after the launch, both Airbnb and Booking fell around 20%. So the question the market is asking is quite …
[dry-run excerpt] A couple of recent fund updates starting with the Pacific Assets Trust plc (LON: PAC ): 🏦 Schroder Investment Trusts (Various) ⚠️ NOTE: Pacific Assets Trust plc (LON: PAC ) - “Following the passing of the special resolution by the Company’s Shareholders on 24th September 2026, the scheme of reconstruction offering shareholders a cash exit or to roll over their investment into Schroder Asian Total …
[dry-run excerpt] With less than three months remaining in 2026, I wanted to take a little time to update readers on where my thinking stands, what has worked this year, what hasn’t, and where I’m starting to look as we head into 2027. As always, my goal isn’t to predict everything, it’s to identify areas where I think the risk/reward is attractive and find opportunities that the broader market may be overlooking. …
[dry-run excerpt] Merhaba! It’s Monday morning and I am done with Istanbul. Done with overpriced sights, with relentless restaurant promoters, and with haggling to make my souvenir purchases at a remotely fair price. I decide to see the Hagia Sophia at last, then retire to a cafe. Auf Wiedersehen , I am out. An hour later I wonder how I let myself get scammed at the Hagia’s official ticket counter (ok technically i…
[dry-run excerpt] I haven’t written about private equity for a while. The themes I was concerned about over the last two to three years have been playing out – harder to achieve exits, rising numbers of companies in portfolios and massive amounts of dry powder. But recent upward pressure on bond yields now presents the industry with a new and serious problem. Below I review two major 2026 reports from McKinsey and …
[dry-run excerpt] George Morrison, detail of Construction in Fantasy, 1953 La cosa più anticonformista di tutte non è opporsi alla folla, ma pensare con la propria testa. Il paradosso delle opzioni “Il mercato sembra tranquillo perché l'indice è tranquillo. Ma sotto la superficie abbiamo già una correzione enorme, una concentrazione estrema nei titoli AI, una volatilità artificialmente compressa e posizionamenti qu…