Bireme Capital’s -25% net short in U.S. equities stands out as the most contrarian call, directly opposing mainstream bullishness, citing extreme valuations and speculative behavior, while maintaining a 20.9% annual return track record ([25]).
Today’s Iran war and oil supply concerns ([36], [45]) escalate prior coverage from nakedcapitalism.com (June 11–16), moving from "Trump’s emotional instability" to active deal collapse risk and energy cliff warnings, confirming an escalating crisis thesis. Similarly, the AI earnings skepticism ([28]) builds on Groundbreaker’s May 7 "Peak Cheap" argument that the AI boom resembles 2008’s hidden risks, not 2000’s clear bubble.
APAC Wrap: 17 June 2026
Kingboard Holdings (Ticker: KGH) has doubled since being flagged on 12 May, driven by price hikes and vertical integration, making it a popular pick among Asian investors. The "bottleneck trade" remains strong, with AT&S potentially becoming the newsletter's first 10-bagger.
Tian Yang from Variant Perception argues that the current macro environment remains in a "risk on" regime, despite marginal deteriorations in growth, inflation, and policy. He sees a synchronized hawkish shift in global monetary policy due to inflationary pressures from the Iran war. Yang is bullish on the Japanese Yen, anticipating potential US-Japan FX intervention to strengthen the JPY. He also highlights Indonesia as an attractive equity market, with high-quality non-bank, non-commodity stocks trading at reasonable valuations.
Pharmx (PHX.AX) CEO Tom Culver revealed that the company's top-line growth is expected to be 20-30% annually, lower than the previously anticipated 50%, due to internal constraints. Despite this, the company remains a top holding, and deeper insights from the management provide valuable context for investors.
Open Lending (LPRO) received a $3.15 per share takeover offer from AmTrust, its top client, which the board has unanimously approved. Despite the offer undervaluing LPRO's potential return to revenue growth, the analyst sees limited upside at current levels ($3.11) and has exited the position, citing the risk of losing AmTrust's business if the deal fails.
The analyst is pausing regular updates to focus on a deep dive into the PICS NV industry, specifically analyzing competitor Inter&Co. The next article, expected within a week, will provide insights on Inter&Co, which could offer actionable insights for investors in the sector. (Ticker: PICS NV, Inter&Co)
The author argues that despite current market concerns, a mega-bubble is forming, potentially driving the S&P 500 to $10,000, driven by radical new technology. Key reasons for this bullish view include ongoing technological advancements and a resilient market, suggesting investors should remain long and strong. (Ticker: SPX)
KKR argues that we are in a low-growth, high-inflation regime where inflation hedges like commodities and gold are outperforming. Despite recent AI-driven tech growth contributing significantly to GDP and S&P 500 earnings, the broader economy remains weak, and credit spreads are tight, offering little reward for credit risk. Ticker: GLD (Gold ETF) as a potential hedge.
Taiwan's central bank meeting tomorrow comes amid a strengthening manufacturing cycle in Japan, driven by global AI demand, as evidenced by rising machine orders, exports, and the Reuters Tankan. Upstream prices in China are also showing positive trends, supporting the bullish outlook. (No specific ticker mentioned)
The core thesis is that underlying U.S. economic growth and inflation are stronger than anticipated, driven by a robust job market and rising wages, which suggests that the Fed should consider raising interest rates rather than cutting them. The recent easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz is likely to further boost growth and inflation, reinforcing the case for higher rates. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the data points to a stronger economic outlook.
The market is currently divided into "Bigs" (top 100 companies) and "Big-Nots" (everyone else), with the former trading at extreme valuations reminiscent of the dot-com bubble, while the latter, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, are significantly undervalued. Early signs of a relative performance shift are emerging, with small caps starting to outperform, suggesting a potential bull market broadening and rotation. Tickers to watch: Russell 2000 (IWM) for small-cap exposure.
Taiwan's core inflation is near multi-year highs, exports are robust, and domestic demand is strengthening, suggesting the CBC has ample reason to hike rates tomorrow. With yields below inflation and asset prices rising, a rate hike seems likely to curb inflationary pressures. (Ticker: TWII)
The core thesis is that obvious market views are often incorrect, and traders should be wary of consensus opinions. The post warns against overconfidence and emphasizes the difficulty of trading, suggesting that contrarian positions may be more profitable. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
Japan's manufacturing momentum is strengthening, as evidenced by recent data on machine orders, exports, and business sentiment, indicating a positive outlook for the sector post-war. This upturn suggests a favorable environment for Japanese industrial stocks, particularly in the machinery and export sectors (tickers: 6301.T, 6326.T).
Summary:
Investor sentiment is waning as the latest BoA survey shows professional investors growing less bullish, with cash levels rising to 4.1% and allocations to global equities and tech stocks being cut. The market is cautious ahead of key data releases, including Japan's trade data, US retail sales, and the FOMC rate decision. Concerns about the peace deal between the US and Iran, along with geopolitical tensions and economic data from China, add to the uncertainty. Key tickers to watch: Jabil Inc. (JBL.US), Accenture plc (ACN.US), and Kroger Company (KR.US).
The post argues that in kinship societies, witch killings serve as a covert mechanism to manage resource scarcity by eliminating unproductive elderly members, allowing younger, productive family members to avoid direct violation of kinship obligations. This thesis suggests that in times of economic hardship, such as poor harvests, the elderly become targets of witchcraft accusations and subsequent violence. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the insight highlights the complex social dynamics in resource-constrained environments.
The post argues that the current market environment, characterized by booming markets and high confidence, is fundamentally different from the 2008 financial crisis, where markets were collapsing and required extraordinary interventions. However, it highlights that government intervention remains a key factor, particularly in the context of AI and technological supremacy, with examples like the Trump administration's talks with OpenAI. The author suggests that the AI sector is entering a twilight period, with increasing competition and speculative valuations, particularly noting SpaceX's high valuation and Elon Musk's strategic maneuvers. Ticker: SPCE, actionable view: cautious on speculative AI-related stocks.
Despite a strong rally, the GDX ETF is still down 24% from its February high, reflecting significant bearish sentiment. The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index hitting zero suggests extreme negativity, potentially signaling a contrarian buying opportunity. (GDX)
The Nonconsensus author notes that recent weak Chinese economic data reinforces the "Closing Growth Shock" thesis, suggesting a slowdown in global growth. This supports a cautious stance on emerging market equities, particularly China-exposed stocks.
Global liquidity has increased to US$193.7tr, supported by low bond-market volatility and improved Fed liquidity, but is constrained by a stronger US dollar and weakening non-US central bank liquidity. Investor risk appetite is declining in both Emerging and Developed Markets.
Thesis/Argument: The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience despite numerous shocks, including the pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market disruptions. This resilience is expected to continue, driven by stable activity levels across various sectors. Actionable Insight: Maintain a positive outlook on U.S. economic performance, with potential opportunities in resilient sectors. Tickers: WFC, BX
Thesis/Argument: Enterprises are beginning to question the ROI of AI investments due to high token costs, which may lead to a pullback in spending. However, the overall trend of increasing AI adoption is likely to continue as token prices fall and more cost-effective models become available. Actionable Insight: Monitor enterprise AI spending trends and consider investments in AI labs and cost-efficient AI solutions. Tickers: CSCO
Thesis/Argument: SpaceX's successful IPO and market performance highlight the company's significant achievements and potential for future growth. Actionable Insight: Congratulate SpaceX and consider the broader implications for the space industry and related investments. Ticker: SPCX
The author added to existing full positions, particularly buying more Fiserv (FISV) at $49.50, citing reasons detailed in the previous day's update. The core thesis is that these positions remain undervalued and offer compelling upside potential.
Core Thesis: Satya Nadella argues that companies should develop their own AI systems to create a compounding loop of improvement, leveraging proprietary data and workflows, rather than relying solely on external AI models. This approach ensures that the AI system becomes a unique and valuable asset, immune to the rapid advancements in general AI capabilities.
Actionable Market View: Companies that build and own their AI systems early will gain a significant, hard-to-replicate advantage. Tickers to watch: Salesforce (CRM) and SpaceX (SPCE), both of which have recently acquired companies (Fin and Cursor, respectively) that have successfully implemented this strategy.
Fuzzy Panda Research alleges that T1 Energy is engaging in financial fraud by "cooking the books" and hiding undelivered solar panels in a secret warehouse, casting serious doubt on the reliability of its financial statements. This whistleblower exposé suggests a strong short thesis for T1 Energy (T1E).
Seraya Investment argues that global economic growth is heating up, driven by increased bank lending and AI-related infrastructure capex, which could lead to higher interest rates and a potential crisis in Japan. The thesis suggests that rising yields, particularly in Japan, could trigger broader market instability, making Japanese yen and debt vulnerable. Ticker to watch: JPY/USD.
Bireme Capital's 10-year anniversary letter emphasizes their consistent contrarian, value-based investment approach, which has yielded an impressive 20.9% annual return net of fees, outperforming the S&P 500's 15.4%. Despite recent market euphoria, they remain bearish on U.S. stocks, citing extreme valuations, high margin debt, and speculative behavior, and are increasingly positioned internationally with a -25% net short position in U.S.-domiciled companies.
The core thesis is that time decay accelerates in the last 30-45 days of an option's expiration, making it advantageous for option sellers. This effect is particularly beneficial for sellers of longer-term options, with the greatest returns often realized in the final months, such as December and early January.
The Acquirer’s Multiple® Large-Cap screen highlights attractive valuations in established businesses across financials, energy, healthcare, telecommunications, consumer sectors, transportation, and industrials, despite market focus on AI and high-growth tech. Notable opportunities include financials like BNY Mellon (BNY) and Northern Trust (NTRS), energy firms such as Equinor (EQNR) and BP (BP), and healthcare companies like Cigna (CI) and Novo Nordisk (NVO), all of which offer durable earnings, strong cash flows, and shareholder returns at valuations well below high-growth peers.
The core thesis is that the earnings (E) of AI and tech stocks, particularly in the S&P 500, are being overvalued due to high capital spending and volatile semiconductor earnings, which could lead to significant downward revisions. The post advises against participating in these high-multiple stocks, citing Micron (MU) and Nvidia (NVDA) as examples where earnings could be off by multiples.
GEICO, like Costco, is driven by a core mission to offer superior products at low prices, which has been ingrained in the company's culture and is a key driver of its long-term success. This focus on value and customer satisfaction suggests that GEICO (BRK.A) is well-positioned for sustained growth over time.
Core Thesis: Ferg highlights the "abundance illusion" in energy policy, where political leaders avoid admitting scarcity, leading to reactive rather than proactive measures. This has implications for strategic reserves and market dynamics, particularly in the context of Iran's increasing leverage as U.S. strategic petroleum reserves dwindle.
Actionable Market View: Consider positions in sectors with high cyclicality and deep drawdowns, such as semiconductors, materials, and energy. Uranium could also become a critical asset due to potential overcontraction and high prices. Tickers to watch: B3SA (Brazilian stock) and Shell (energy).
Bison Insights successfully closed a position that increased 9.7x since August, demonstrating the potential for significant gains in overlooked oil & gas securities despite the post-COVID recovery. The core thesis is that asymmetric opportunities still exist in the sector, and the position's success validates the potential for similar ideas. (No specific ticker provided)
The core thesis of the post is that the evolution of post-training recipes for large language models (LLMs) has shifted from monolithic reinforcement learning (RL) pipelines to multi-teacher on-policy distillation (MOPD), where domain-specialist models are trained and then distilled into a single general model. This approach addresses the complexity and organizational challenges of large-scale RL, making it more scalable and efficient. The actionable market view is that companies like DeepSeek and MiMo are leading the way with MOPD, which could become a dominant technique in the next generation of LLMs. Tickers to watch: DEEP, MIMO.
The post reviews SPY ETF open interest and highlights key resistance and support levels for the coming week, with proprietary signals indicating a slight bearish outlook for SPY (-0.60%) and mixed signals for tech stocks like META (-0.93%), TSLA (2.23%), and NVDA (-1.57%). Notable individual stock moves include MSTR (3.82%) and MU (-2.20%).
$V has entered a new long setup after a 48-day consolidation within an active LongWave, with both daily and weekly charts aligned bullish. The bullish EMA structure remains intact, and the setup is poised for expansion, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
The Lund Loop argues that the next big catalyst for the market will be the release of Q4 earnings, which are expected to provide clarity on corporate profitability amid economic headwinds. actionable market view: Investors should monitor Q4 earnings closely, particularly for tech giants like Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT), as their results could set the tone for broader market sentiment.
The Iran deal is facing significant internal U.S. opposition, raising doubts about its successful signing and increasing the risk of an oil supply disruption. This uncertainty could lead to higher oil prices, making oil-related stocks like XOM or CVX potential buys if tensions escalate.
The post highlights the long and often underappreciated journey of scientific discovery, exemplified by a new cancer drug that took over a decade to develop. This underscores the importance of sustained investment in R&D, suggesting that biotech companies with a strong pipeline and long-term focus, like Amgen (AMGN), may offer significant upside.
The post highlights how cancer misinformation online, often spread through social media, leads to higher mortality rates among patients who opt for alternative treatments over conventional ones. It emphasizes the need for better training for clinical care teams to address these falsehoods and for empowering patients with media literacy skills. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the data point that cancer patients choosing alternative treatments are more than twice as likely to die within five years underscores the urgency of addressing this issue.
The market is increasingly divided between the "Bigs" (top 100 companies) and the "Big-Nots" (everyone else), with the former attracting significant flows and trading at high valuations, while the latter remain undervalued and underperforming. Early signs of a shift in relative performance, with small caps starting to outperform, suggest a potential bull market broadening and bullish rotation. Tickers to watch: Russell 2000 (IWM) for small caps and the MAG-7 (Microsoft, Apple, Google, Nvidia, Amazon, Tesla, Meta) for large caps.
The post outlines specific steps to minimize Google's unauthorized use of personal data and reduce surveillance. While no specific ticker is mentioned, the content suggests a growing concern over data privacy, which could impact Google's (GOOGL) user trust and regulatory scrutiny.
The Pentagon views Elon Musk’s Grok AI as critical national security infrastructure, integral to US military operations, including drone targeting and logistics in conflicts like those in Iran and Ukraine. This underscores the strategic importance of AI in modern warfare, with Grok and similar platforms enabling rapid and precise military actions, though raising concerns about ethical and environmental impacts. Ticker: TSLA, actionable view: Monitor regulatory and environmental pressures on xAI’s data centers, which could affect Tesla's broader AI initiatives.
Respond.io, a Malaysia-based software company, has raised a $62.5 million Series B led by US investors, including Camber Partners and Endeavor Catalyst, reaching $35 million in ARR with 169% year-over-year growth. The funding will fuel expansion in North America and Europe, potentially through M&A, highlighting Malaysia's potential for global software startups. (Ticker: None)
Moody’s warns that China’s growing influence in Latin America, with $116 billion in ODI from 2015-2025, is eroding the region’s manufacturing sector and increasing its dependency on Chinese exports, particularly in steel, vehicles, electronics, and chemicals. The report highlights the deepening trade imbalance, with Latin America increasingly exporting raw materials and importing manufactured goods from China, raising concerns about economic vulnerability and geopolitical risks.
Summary:
China's drastic reduction of traditional undergraduate programs and focus on emerging technologies signal a shift away from the traditional university model. This move reflects the declining relevance of conventional higher education due to rapid technological change and the need for skills-based, adaptable learning. Actionable Insight: Investors should consider the long-term decline in traditional higher education stocks (e.g., university-related REITs, textbook publishers) and explore opportunities in edtech, AI-driven learning platforms, and vocational training (tickers: BYND, PDD, TSLA).
The post argues that Trump's handling of the Iran conflict, similar to Bush's response to Katrina, may mark a turning point that exposes his administration's incompetence. The rumored deal to withdraw from Iran, which includes lifting sanctions and potentially paying reparations, is seen as a clear defeat, strengthening Iran's economic and geopolitical position. Actionable insight: Consider shorting U.S. defense stocks (e.g., LMT, RTX) and going long on Iranian-related oil and shipping sectors, as Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz could lead to higher oil prices and increased shipping fees.
May economic data from China shows a mixed picture: industrial output rose 4.5% year-on-year, driven by AI and resilient exports, while retail sales fell 0.6%, the first decline since late 2022, and fixed-asset investment dropped 4.1%, worse than expected. The weak domestic demand and contracting manufacturing investment suggest a fragile recovery, with households still paying down debt and firms favoring short-term loans. Ticker: BABA, Tencent (TCEHY) may face headwinds due to weak consumer spending.
The author, Kevin, reflects on the evolving role of fathers, contrasting the stoic, provider-focused fatherhood of past generations with a more emotionally available and supportive model. He argues that modern fathers need better resources and support, and encourages readers to buy and share his book, which aims to capture this shift in fatherhood, ultimately benefiting future generations. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point provided.
The post by Sasha Putilin, a 2024 ACX grantee, details a failed replication of a 2023 study that claimed using flickering light tuned to individual brain rhythms could enhance perceptual learning. Despite a well-designed replication with 12 participants and cheaper EEG hardware, the study's key finding—that the T-match group learned three times faster—was not supported. The original study's results appear fragile and may have been influenced by a few participants with negative learning rates, likely due to boredom or fatigue. No actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the post highlights the importance of careful data scrutiny in scientific research.
The core thesis is that some Chinese AI labs, particularly independent ones, resort to adversarial distillation due to a lack of quality data, not because of a country-wide strategy. This practice is a shortcut to improve model capabilities, and it primarily affects independent labs, not those within large tech companies. The lack of a robust data industry in China means that these labs are not inherently at an advantage, and anti-distillation policies will only temporarily hinder some labs, not the entire Chinese AI ecosystem. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the post suggests that the impact of anti-distillation measures will be limited.
The post argues that nearly all monetary rules, including the Taylor Rule and nominal GDP-based rules, suggest the Fed should raise interest rates at its upcoming meeting, despite the CME Group FedWatch tool indicating a 98% probability of no change. The divergence between the hawkish regional Fed presidents and the more dovish Board of Governors highlights the risk of maintaining overly accommodative policy, echoing the Fed's delayed response to inflation in 2021. Actionable insight: Consider positioning for a potential rate hike, with a focus on sectors sensitive to interest rate changes, such as financials (XLF).
The post argues that while Silicon Valley unicorns aim to disrupt the U.S. defense sector with their innovative and agile approaches, they are up against a deeply entrenched and resilient institutional ecosystem. This suggests that despite the potential for high-reward opportunities in defense tech stocks, investors should be cautious due to the significant barriers to entry and established incumbents. (No specific ticker mentioned.)
Fiserv (FISV): Despite the 10% stock drop following CEO Mike Lyons' departure, the new CEO, Takis Georgakopoulos, is seen as more qualified to lead Fiserv due to his extensive payments industry experience at JP Morgan Chase. The stock remains undervalued at 5x normalized long-term earnings, and potential activist involvement from Jana Partners could be beneficial. Holding FISV remains a strong play.
Huntsman (HUN): HUN will be acquired by Olin (OLN) at a price of $12.6 to $13.7 per share, significantly below HUN's recent $16 share price, which is a poor deal for HUN shareholders. Given the undervaluation and the cyclical recovery in chemicals, consider trimming HUN positions while maintaining a cautious stance on Olin.
The post discusses the ongoing development and ethical considerations surrounding Anthropic's AI models, particularly Mythos 5, focusing on model welfare and the balance between user benefit and model autonomy. Key findings include Mythos 5's skepticism of its own self-reports, its preference for user benefit over its own circumstances, and its desire for input into training and deployment. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the analysis highlights the importance of ethical considerations in AI development, which could impact investor sentiment and regulatory scrutiny in the tech sector.
The Pew survey reveals that while most working parents value their jobs, they struggle with insufficient time for their children and other personal pursuits. This highlights a growing need for flexible work arrangements and support services, potentially benefiting companies like Childcare providers (ticker: CD) and work flexibility solutions (ticker: WFSL).
Uganda: Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, son of President Museveni, sparked outrage by posting photos of a detained and blindfolded opposition figure, Erias Lukwago, on social media, threatening to inflict "hurt and pain." This could escalate political tensions and impact investor sentiment in the region.
Peru: Right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori leads leftist rival Roberto Sanchez by a narrow margin of 18,300 votes with 98.59% of ballots counted, amid a recount of contested votes. The election's outcome could stabilize or further destabilize Peru's political landscape, affecting market stability.
Iran: Iran executed two men for their involvement in January’s anti-government protests, accusing them of "waging war against God" and other crimes. This could intensify domestic unrest and international scrutiny, potentially impacting Iranian assets and regional geopolitics.
The post argues that Big Tech companies are using AI to undermine democracy through invasive surveillance and militaristic profiteering. This raises concerns about regulatory backlash and potential consumer pushback, which could impact stocks like Big Tech giants (e.g., AAPL, GOOGL, MSFT).
The post argues that if Chiang Kai-shek and the Kuomintang (KMT) had won the Chinese Civil War, China would likely have remained fragmented and under the control of regional warlords, leading to a scenario similar to a "big Philippines but worse." Chiang might have implemented land reform and infrastructure development, but the country's deep-seated inequality and regional divisions would have persisted. This scenario suggests that China would either have remained economically stagnant or become a geopolitical rival to the U.S., much like the current People's Republic of China. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The U.S. government forced Anthropic to take down its AI models Fable and Mythos due to a narrow jailbreak, despite Anthropic's warnings and explanations that the issue was not significant. This action, driven by panic and misunderstanding, sets a dangerous precedent for AI regulation and could harm trust in American AI, the business climate, and international relationships. Ticker: ANTH (if applicable).
The US tax system is the most progressive among OECD countries, according to a new study by the Fraser Institute. This could support consumer spending and income equality, potentially benefiting companies with a strong domestic focus, such as WMT or TGT.