The most contrarian call is Fuzzy Panda Research’s short thesis on T1 Energy (TE) (see [21]), alleging the company is funneling U.S. tax credits to China and acting as a shell for Trina Solar. This goes beyond typical valuation skepticism to allege systemic fraud and national security-adjacent financial misbehavior—rare in public commentary and highly specific in its whistleblower-driven claims.
Today’s coverage meaningfully connects to prior analysis: The Iran deal’s fragility (today [38], prior nakedcapitalism.com 6/17-6/18) continues to drive oil market volatility; China’s economic debate (today [12] vs [41], prior East Asia Econ 6/16) reflects an ongoing split on stabilization vs. crisis; and local pushback on data centers (today [56], prior Teach What I Know 6/12) shows policy responses escalating from scrutiny to formal regulatory frameworks (Texas PCLR, FERC actions).
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following a U.S.-Iran deal has led to a significant drop in oil prices, with Brent falling to $83 and WTI to $80. The market is now oversupplied due to returning Hormuz traffic, increased OPEC+ spare capacity, and new supply routes, suggesting a lower and calmer price range, likely around the low $70s. China, the world's largest crude importer, stands to benefit significantly from lower oil prices, potentially saving $100-150 billion annually, which could boost its domestic demand recovery.
The post argues that SharonAI (SHAZ) is an intriguing speculative bet on the neocloud space, particularly due to its strategic position in Australia and the APAC region, which is crucial for developing domestic AI capabilities amid geopolitical tensions. With recent capital raises and a partnership with NVIDIA, SHAZ is financially and operationally derisked, aiming to deploy up to 55,000 GPUs by mid-2027. The current valuation, pegged at around US$3.5-4bn, suggests significant upside potential if the AI market continues to grow, making it a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
Associated British Foods (LON: ABF) is undervalued due to the market ascribing near-zero value to its FoodCo divisions, despite strong underlying businesses. The spin-off of Primark, which generates £1.1bn in EBIT, could unlock significant value, with a potential 50% upside post-spin, driven by the undervalued Grocery and Ingredients divisions and Primark's U.S. expansion opportunity.
David Ridland from Castlebay Investment Partners emphasizes the importance of quality and value in investing, using a cashflow lifecycle analysis to identify mismatches in capital allocation behavior. He highlights two key metrics: a 6% free cash flow yield and a 4% dividend yield, both at record levels since the fund's launch in 2015, indicating undervalued quality compounders. The fund has outperformed peers and the market by 10% since March, with valuations still at extreme levels despite strong operating results and double-digit earnings growth.
The post discusses the growth potential of property management services in Hong Kong, highlighting the sector's resilience and increasing demand for high-quality services. It recommends buying stocks in companies with strong portfolios and operational efficiency, specifically mentioning Sino-Ocean Services (0668.HK) as a top pick due to its robust financials and expanding market share.
The core thesis of the post is that growth is a non-negotiable factor in value creation, and investors should focus on secular growth themes like physical AI, complex biologics, infrastructure renewal, defense & reshoring, and semiconductors. The Best Anchor Stocks portfolio is positioned to benefit from these trends, particularly in physical AI, which is poised to shape the next decade. The actionable market view is to invest in companies that are part of the physical AI ecosystem, such as those involved in perception, interaction, and reaction technologies, as well as picks-and-shovels businesses that provide essential components and services. Tickers to consider include NVIDIA (NVDA) and other semiconductor and robotics firms.
Core Thesis: The report highlights actionable special situations, focusing on activist campaigns, capital returns, strategic alternatives, and mergers and acquisitions. Notable picks include Elliott Management’s push for a strategic review at Northern Star Resources (NST AX), Dine Brands Global’s (DIN) deep-value buyback, Tate & Lyle’s (TATE L) clean merger arbitrage, and Steadfast Group’s (SDF AX) board-endorsed buyout.
Actionable Market View: Investors should consider Northern Star Resources for potential upside from a strategic review, Dine Brands Global for its aggressive buyback at a low valuation, Tate & Lyle for a clean merger arbitrage with a clear upside, and Steadfast Group for a high-premium buyout with a defined risk profile.
China: Despite recent poor economic data, the thesis argues that China's economy may be bottoming out, suggesting a potential buying opportunity. Japan: Inflation remains modest on official measures due to government subsidies, particularly on fuel prices, but a weaker JPY could offset some benefits. Korea: PPI inflation accelerated to 8.5% YoY in May, with services PPI inflation reaching 4.9% YoY, indicating broad-based inflationary pressures, largely driven by the insurance sector.
The post highlights the tightening spreads in private credit due to capital influx, emphasizing the importance of manager selection in alternative investments. It also notes Canada's progress in diversifying crude exports through the TMX pipeline and the energy sector's disciplined investment approach. The actionable insight is the significant impact of rising energy costs on lower-income households, with energy comprising nearly 20% of their annual spend, suggesting a focus on energy-sensitive investments (ticker: XLE).
The post highlights growing market divergences and increasing leverage in both bond and equity markets, signaling a cautious outlook. No specific tickers or actionable data points are provided, but the overall thesis suggests reducing risk exposure.
Japan Exchange Group (8697.T) continues to outperform, driven by its monopoly-like market position, BoJ normalization, corporate governance reforms, and data/derivatives diversification. Despite a 25% return since October 2025, the re-rating opportunity remains, making it an attractive, domestically-driven, and AI-uncorrelated investment in Japan.
The core thesis is that despite recent weak economic data, China's economy is stabilizing, driven by factors like a weak currency boosting exports and capital inflows. The author argues that while consumption weakness is a long-term concern, it is not significant for the short-term cycle, and industrial production (IP) growth should recover, supported by global manufacturing trends. Key indicators to watch include IP growth, M1, imports, and property, with a potential downturn signaled by a weakening CNY.
Summary:
Asian markets are largely closed for holidays, leading to light trading volumes. The MSCI China Index has entered a bear market, down 20% from its October peak, driven by weak earnings and subdued domestic demand. Oil prices are easing as the Straits of Hormuz re-open, and the USD has strengthened, with a high probability of a US rate hike in December. The yuan is becoming an attractive funding currency due to low borrowing costs, with increased issuance of panda bonds by foreign entities. Japan's inflation data is in focus, with the yen hitting 161.3, a level that could trigger intervention.
Actionable Insights:
Kevin Warsh's first FOMC meeting as Fed Chair saw rates unchanged but the removal of the easing bias, driven by firmer inflation data and Warsh’s monetarist stance. Bond markets sold off, but the long end was more resilient, signaling a shift towards bonds. The investment outlook now favors commodities and cash, with equities likely to see lower returns and higher volatility, and the yield curve expected to flatten further. (TLT, GLD)
The core thesis is that the market's bullish outlook on the Iran peace treaty and the expected normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz overlooks the ongoing disruptions on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. The actionable view is to be cautious on oil and shipping stocks (tickers: OIL, TSL) as the full impact of these disruptions may not be fully priced in.
The analyst has been accurate on major macro calls, including the limited impact of closing the Straits of Hormuz, rising JGB yields, and the challenges for private equity and AI markets. They maintain a cautious outlook, favoring a weak dollar and seeing potential in Japanese banks (Topix Bank Index), while noting mixed signals in the AI sector and the primacy of politics over economics. The analyst expects a bearish market washout to clean out leverage, with further analysis to follow in Part II.
The FDA's pragmatic shift, exemplified by its acceptance of uniQure’s (QURE) 3-year Phase I/II data for AMT-130’s accelerated approval, is bullish for Biotech. This change has already turned QURE into a >10x-bagger in calls and a >2x-bagger in equity, with potential for further gains. The author suggests one more Biotech investment opportunity, hinting at another high-potential play.
No major policy changes from Taiwan's CBC, and China's May trade data shows persistent import growth, which is positive amid growth concerns. No specific actionable market view or ticker provided.
The post advocates for dollar cost averaging into rapidly declining stocks, particularly when volume confirms a shift to steadier hands. The author bought Mercado Libre (MELI) at $1,630, noting it is down 39% from its June 2025 high and has seen significant turnover, suggesting a potential bottom.
OpenAI, still private, has reportedly submitted a confidential S-1, and recent financial leaks suggest the company's financials are becoming more transparent. The core thesis is that current investor expectations and valuations are based on these leaked financials, which subscribers can access in a detailed financial model. No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.
Fuzzy Panda Research exposes T1 Energy (TE) for funneling US tax credits to China and continuing IP payments to Trina Solar through FY 2026, raising concerns about regulatory scrutiny and financial integrity. This could lead to significant reputational and financial risks, suggesting a short position or risk reduction in TE.
The post highlights concerns over a potential tech bubble, with notable investors like Seth Klarman and Jim Chanos warning about overvaluation and market volatility. Key takeaways include Bill Ackman's big tech bets, SpaceX's IPO as a market indicator, and the rise of triple-digit gainers in 2026, suggesting a cautious approach to tech stocks and a focus on value investing for defense. Ticker: $SPCX.
The post argues that increased volatility in Meta, Visa, and Mastercard presents an opportunity to buy these high-quality companies at significant discounts to their intrinsic value. Utilizing options can help investors capitalize on this volatility by manufacturing cheaper entry prices or collecting premiums, enhancing the attractiveness of these stocks (META, V, MA).
The DCF analysis of Amazon (AMZN) yields an intrinsic value of $88 per share, significantly below the current market price of $245, indicating a -64% margin of safety. Despite Amazon's strong competitive advantages and growth prospects in e-commerce, AWS, advertising, and AI, the current valuation appears to reflect overly optimistic assumptions, suggesting limited upside potential.
The author highlights two precedents in Germany—Rhoen Klinikum (2014) and Rocket Internet (2022)—where separable tender rights were issued in large buyback tenders. This suggests that Norma Group might also issue such rights, potentially requiring investors to actively manage their positions if the rights trade separately. Ticker: NRM.
Chuck Royce highlights the tendency of investors to chase performance, often investing just as a period of strong returns is about to end. This suggests being cautious of assets or strategies that have recently outperformed, as the risk of a reversal may be high.
The core thesis is that while AI is driving significant changes, proper valuation and changes in expected cash flows are key to understanding the performance differences between AI stocks. Micron (MU) has outperformed Lam Research (LRCX) due to a significant upward revision in future cash flow expectations, while LRCX's intrinsic value has not increased as much, limiting its upside. actionable view: MU may continue to outperform LRCX if AI bullishness persists.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) confirmed GTA VI pre-orders will open on June 25, with the game launching on November 19, 2026, exclusively on PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. The announcement marks a critical conversion event, shifting consumer discussion from delay fatigue to commercial intent, with positive social media reactions to the game's realistic graphics. The market may be underestimating the financial impact due to higher pricing, a greater digital mix, and faster live-service monetization, suggesting GTA VI could outperform GTA V's initial sales and recurring revenue, even without matching lifetime units. Key data points to watch include the June 25 price reveal, pre-order conversions, and GTA Online launch timing.
WTI oil prices have fallen to $75 due to Trump's MOU with Iran and increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but the risk of supply disruptions remains. Bison Insights recommends a large oil producer (ticker not specified) with improved guidance, strong downside protection, and significant upside potential in both lower and higher oil price environments.
Oddity Tech ($ODD) faces a broken customer acquisition cost (CAC) model, leading to a 26% revenue decline and negative EBITDA in 1Q'26. Despite these issues, the company's $600 million zero-coupon exchangeable notes due 2030 trade at 69, offering a 9.5% YTM, making them an attractive distressed debt play.
The post argues that the Boltzmann Framework provides the full probability distribution of an option's value at expiry, offering more comprehensive risk management insights compared to the single expected value provided by Black-Scholes. This approach can help in better assessing the probability of an option expiring worthless and the range of potential payoffs, enhancing risk management and trading strategies. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
The post argues that Andrew Left, a prominent activist short seller, was unjustly prosecuted for market manipulation and securities fraud, as his practices were standard in the industry and often benefited the market by exposing fraud. The author suggests that the government's case against Left is flawed and that clearer regulations are needed to address the practices of activist short sellers, rather than selective prosecutions. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
David Holz is demonstrating a successful model of building wealth and maintaining control by avoiding external funding, showcasing an alternative to the common Silicon Valley practice of raising large sums from investors. This approach, while challenging, can lead to significant personal and financial independence. (No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.)
Rene Sellmann shares his personal watchlist of 150 high-quality global stocks, emphasizing the importance of identifying compounders early, buying with a margin of safety, and holding for the long term. He suggests using a "lost decade" filter to identify buying opportunities when high-quality stocks are undervalued due to temporary setbacks, and stresses the value of maintaining a well-curated watchlist to capitalize on market panics.
$WMT has entered a new short setup with both daily and weekly charts in a ShortWave, indicating a confirmed bearish crossover and a failed recovery attempt at the 50D EMA. The pullback and rejection are already evident, suggesting a potential larger correction phase. Consider short positions with defined risk parameters.
The post argues that missing out on a potential investment is different from actively losing money, emphasizing the importance of disciplined investing over FOMO. It suggests that investors should focus on their long-term strategy rather than chasing short-term gains. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
The Next Trading Week provides a curated list of technical setups for U.S. stocks, focusing on identifying interesting charts and key levels before the market moves. Each setup includes the ticker, technical pattern, activation and invalidation areas, and a specific strategy, helping traders prepare and monitor opportunities systematically.
Iran has suspended nuclear negotiations due to Israel's ongoing attacks in southern Lebanon, complicating the "deal" and raising geopolitical tensions. This could impact oil prices and regional stability, potentially benefiting defensive stocks like Raytheon (RTX) or Northrop Grumman (NOC).
Colombia’s Trump-endorsed presidential candidate has vowed to wage an all-out war on left-wing “enemies” if elected, raising concerns of renewed civil unrest and instability. This could impact investments in sectors sensitive to political volatility, such as energy (EC) and mining (COPX).
Human Rights Watch reports severe abuses by ICE during a Minneapolis raid in late 2025, highlighting a significant human rights crisis. This could impact companies with significant government contracts in immigration enforcement, such as Geo Group (GEO) and CoreCivic (CXW), potentially leading to increased regulatory scrutiny and reputational damage.
Ed Dowd argues that China’s real estate crisis is entering an acute phase, contrary to the belief that the worst has passed. This crisis is transforming into a global manufacturing shock as Beijing pushes excess industrial capacity onto the world market. Key stocks to watch include Futu Holdings (FUTU), Li Auto Inc (LI), Xpeng Inc (XPEV), PDD Holdings (PDD), and CSPC Pharmaceutical (1093 HK).
The author argues that the impact of blogging and intellectual discourse has diminished due to the rise of populism, the shift to monetized direct-to-audience platforms like Substack, and the proliferation of AI-generated content. These factors have reduced the influence of intellectuals and created silos, making it harder to engage in meaningful, cross-disciplinary conversations. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
MidJourney's new medical scanner uses ultrasound tomography to create 3D body images without harmful radiation, but it faces significant limitations due to ultrasound's inability to penetrate bone or air, making it unsuitable for many critical medical applications. While it could potentially serve niche screening uses or appeal to health-conscious individuals as a cheaper, more comfortable alternative to MRI, it is unlikely to replace existing imaging modalities in the near term. Actionable Insight: The technology's primary value lies in its potential to benefit from future AI advancements, but current investment should be cautious given the limited immediate medical utility. Ticker: No specific ticker mentioned, but keep an eye on AI and medical imaging companies for potential partnerships or acquisitions.
The post details Kihachiro Kawamoto's transformative 1963 trip to communist Czechoslovakia to study under stop-motion master Jiří Trnka, which significantly influenced Kawamoto's artistic and personal development. No actionable market view or ticker provided, but it highlights the cultural and technical exchange in the animation industry.
The post argues that global imbalances, driven by structural issues in the U.S., China, and Europe, cannot be effectively addressed through tariffs alone. Instead, coordinated global efforts are needed, including China boosting consumption, Europe increasing productive investment, and the U.S. repairing its public finances, while also addressing financialization to prevent asset bubbles. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the analysis suggests that comprehensive policy reforms and international cooperation are essential for sustainable rebalancing.
India's Zojila Tunnel, the world's longest single-tube bi-directional road tunnel at high altitude, significantly enhances India's defense posture along the Line of Actual Control with China by providing year-round connectivity and reducing travel time from three hours to 20 minutes. The $820-850 million project, executed by Megha Engineering & Infrastructure Ltd (MEIL), is expected to be fully operational by 2028, boosting military logistics, economic activities, and tourism in the region. Ticker: MEIL.
The data from 730 million Wordle games shows that players in standard mode, despite having more freedom, are less efficient compared to those in hard mode, suggesting that constraints can lead to better outcomes. No actionable market view or ticker provided.
The post argues that many popular management books, such as "In Search of Excellence" and "Blue Ocean Strategy," rely more on compelling narratives and selective storytelling than on rigorous, replicable data. While these books offer memorable and actionable principles, their success is often driven by engaging stories rather than empirical proof, highlighting that management is more art than science. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the core message suggests being cautious about treating these books as proven scientific theories.
The post argues that the Boltzmann Framework provides the full probability distribution of an option's value at expiry, unlike Black-Scholes, which only gives the expected value. This offers better insights for risk management, enabling more precise planning for various outcomes and probabilities. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
Vincent Bolloré remains in good health and will continue as managing director for another 5 years, despite expressing a plan to step down at 80. The shareholder meeting was dominated by older, less engaged attendees, but a few knowledgeable minority shareholders were present, indicating ongoing interest in the company's direction. (Ticker: COD)
The Chinese government, through a joint initiative by multiple ministries, is accelerating the development of "AI+Consumption" to enhance consumer experiences and drive economic growth, guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. This initiative could boost companies in the AI and consumer technology sectors, such as Baidu (BIDU) and Alibaba (BABA).
Gaza: Over 1,000 people have been killed in Gaza since the October ceasefire, with Israeli troops occupying 60% of the territory and displacing residents. This ongoing conflict could impact regional stability and humanitarian aid stocks (e.g., UNRWA, MSF).
Colombia: The ELN rebels are open to peace talks with the next president, but the frontrunner, a right-wing candidate, promises a military crackdown. This political shift could affect security and investment in Colombia, potentially impacting companies with local operations (e.g., Ecopetrol, ticker: EC).
Iran: The U.S. is believed to be behind the attack on an Iranian school that killed 175 people, with Trump deflecting accountability. This incident could escalate tensions and influence U.S.-Iran relations, affecting oil prices and defense stocks (e.g., LMT, RTX).
The Dialog leak exposes a tech oligarchy, akin to historical elite networks like Bilderberg, indicating that figures like Peter Thiel are increasingly comfortable operating in the public eye. This transparency could signal a shift in how tech leaders influence policy and markets, potentially impacting regulatory scrutiny and tech stock valuations. Ticker: TSLA.
Hunter Harris, the creator of the Substack newsletter "Hung Up," discusses her deep dive into pop culture and her insatiable curiosity, which resonates with her nearly 200,000 subscribers. She emphasizes the importance of fulfilling her commitment to her newsletter readers, viewing them as her primary customers, while also exploring other ventures like podcasts and TV writing. Harris's core thesis is that her tunnel vision and insatiable nature, both personal and professional, are what make her work compelling and loyal. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the focus on content creation and audience engagement is clear.
The post discusses how the author used a creative analogy of a Jewish farmer buying a cow from "Fiddler on the Roof" to explain discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis in his book "Active Value Investing." The core thesis is that creativity and storytelling can make complex financial concepts more relatable and memorable. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
Local communities are increasingly opposing the construction of big tech data centers due to concerns over noise, pollution, and rising electricity bills. This growing resistance could lead to regulatory hurdles and higher operational costs for companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN), potentially impacting their expansion plans and profitability.
The White House imposed export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Claude Mythos 5 due to a "jailbreak" issue, leading to a shutdown and potential long-term deployment pause. Anthropic is in talks with the Trump Administration to resolve the issue, but the core problem—AI's inability to distinguish between offensive and defensive coding—cannot be easily fixed. The market impact is uncertain, but the pause in AI deployment could affect companies like Anthropic and Microsoft, which are exploring alternative AI solutions like DeepSeek.
The Fed's hawkish stance led to a market sell-off, with Fed officials signaling they will no longer provide reassurances about future rate cuts. This shift suggests a more aggressive tightening path, which could pressure equity valuations and benefit short positions in interest-rate-sensitive sectors. (No specific ticker mentioned)
Hidden Rock Capital argues that Mammoth Energy Services (TUSK) has seen a significant rebound in its stock price, rising from under $2/share at the end of 2025 to over $3/share in recent months, driven by deep value investors recognizing its net cash value and the company's return to adjusted EBITDA profitability. The thesis is that further upside remains, supported by management's clearer focus on aviation leasing and upcoming catalysts.
The Jewish Table highlights a must-try Eggplant Caviar recipe that was a hit at a recent Shabbat dinner, praised for its smoky-tangy flavor and versatile uses. While not a direct investment recommendation, the post underscores the cultural and culinary significance of this dish, which could be an interesting angle for consumer goods or food retail companies with a focus on ethnic and artisanal products.
AIA Group (1299 HK): AIA Group, a leading Asian insurer, is positioned for high single-digit premium growth and double-digit earnings growth over the next five years, driven by a strong agent network and structural tailwinds like a growing middle class and rising health awareness.
American Express (AXP US): American Express, a premium payments and card franchise, is seeing strong brand power and rising spend, with earnings growth of 11%-13% per year and a return on equity above 30%. The stock is fairly valued at a PE multiple of about 15 times the 2027 earnings estimate of ~$20 per share.
ASML (ASML NA): ASML, a monopolistic lithography equipment leader, benefits from major barriers to entry and semiconductor tailwinds, with potential for high-teens earnings growth. Recent innovation in light source technology could further boost machine throughput and pricing.
Bajaj Finance Limited (BAF IN): Bajaj Finance Limited, a leading non-bank financial company in India, is well-positioned to benefit from secular growth in consumer finance, driven by strong management and conservative risk controls.
Banco Bradesco S.A. (BBDC4 BZ): Banco Bradesco S.A., a major Brazilian bank, is undergoing a profitability turnaround with ROE expected to expand to the high teens, driven by a shift in loan mix
The post argues that eliminating property taxes in Florida could lead to significant budget shortfalls and potentially undermine public services, suggesting that voters should consider these trade-offs carefully. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the implication is that investments in Florida municipal bonds (e.g., FLMB) or local real estate could be impacted by such policy changes.
The Reform UK proposal to exempt overtime pay from income tax is politically appealing but flawed, as it undermines economic fairness, distorts labor markets, and threatens tax revenues. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the proposal's negative impact on fiscal stability could affect UK-related investments.
FERC has initiated a transparency wave by issuing six regional show-cause orders to RTOs/ISOs, demanding tariff reforms to address issues like cost allocation, transparency, and efficient integration of large loads. The MISO order (Docket No. EL26-70-000) is a key example, requiring MISO to either justify its existing tariff or propose changes within 60 days, with a 45-day window for requesting abeyance to develop a Section 205 filing. This move pressures RTOs/ISOs to innovate regionally while preventing delays, signaling a significant shift in national grid policy.
The core thesis is that economic analysis should never be based solely on accounting identities, as they do not explain causation. For example, reducing the trade deficit through tariffs may increase net exports but can simultaneously decrease other components of GDP, leading to an overall negative impact. The actionable insight is to be wary of policy proposals that rely on simplistic accounting relationships without considering the broader economic effects. Ticker: None specific, but relevant to macroeconomic policy and trade discussions.
The Public Utility Commission of Texas approved PGRR145, establishing a robust framework for determining baseload eligibility and allowing reliance on affiliates, enhancing the Speed to Power (PCLR) process. Despite a request for expedited review of 150 MW of load, the Commission did not adopt this specific condition. This approval sets a precedent for more efficient and reliable market entry for large loads, benefiting ratepayers and improving grid reliability. (Ticker: None specified)