The author revisits a highly asymmetrical investment setup previously highlighted, which has garnered significant attention. The update suggests renewed interest or a material development, but specific details are behind a paywall. No actionable ticker or data point provided.
The author emphasizes self-control in investing over outperforming others and has invested $30,000 into $ONFO as of 08.17.2026, aiming for transparency by showing all current holdings.
Ticker: JD
Summary:
JD.com, despite facing competition from Alibaba and PDD, maintains a strong, integrated, and high-quality delivery model. Recent Q2 results show a 2.9% YoY decline in net revenue, but JD Logistics grew by 24% with a 16% increase in operating income. The company is investing heavily in new businesses like food delivery and international expansion, which are currently loss-making but show promising growth. The stock, trading at 7x forward earnings and 4.3x EV/EBITDA, is undervalued, making it a compelling long-term investment for patient value investors.
The post argues that while AI companies like Anthropic (Claude) are generating impressive revenue figures, the broader AI boom is creating more losers than winners, with the exception of semiconductor companies. The actionable insight is to focus on chipmakers, as they are the primary beneficiaries of the AI surge. (TSM, NVDA)
The S&P 500's valuation metrics are at record highs, suggesting a cautious approach to large equity allocations. Copper prices are rising despite China's housing downturn, indicating potential supply shortfalls and long lead times for new mines, which could support higher copper prices in the medium term (ticker: HGG).
Global liquidity remains elevated, but momentum is waning due to weak central bank liquidity growth, despite supportive funding market conditions. Asset markets are becoming increasingly reliant on stable funding conditions in the absence of significant expansion in the supply of money and credit (SMB).
Core Thesis: The post highlights the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, which have driven oil prices and US Treasury yields higher, and the potential economic impact on China. It also notes the mixed economic data and the shift in market expectations for Fed rate cuts, with a focus on key economic data and earnings reports this week.
Actionable Market View: Be cautious on Chinese markets due to weak domestic consumption and geopolitical tensions. Monitor US retail earnings, particularly Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Walmart, for insights into consumer health. Watch the FOMC minutes and ADP Employment data for signals on Fed policy. Tickers to watch: Micron Technology (MU), Nike (NKE), and Anthropic (private).
The MacroTourist argues that the recent strength in the U.S. dollar is unsustainable due to excessive positioning and Fed rate cut expectations, suggesting a potential reversal. actionable: Long EUR/USD or short USD/JPY.
Summary:
Quest Diagnostics (DGX) has outperformed, gaining 18% since the June 5 recommendation, driven by a strong Q2 earnings report. The stock's performance, including a $0.86 quarterly dividend, significantly outpaces the S&P 500's 6% gain over the same period. The thesis remains bullish, with potential for further upside.
A 127-year-old American manufacturer posted its best quarter ever, with revenue up 8.9% and core operating profit up 22.8%, yet the stock declined. The company has a strong balance sheet with $231.8 million in net cash and $95.8 million in physical gold, trading at $60 per share, implying the market values the core business at just 2.7x EBITDA, significantly below private market multiples. The ticker is not provided, but the write-up suggests a compelling undervaluation opportunity.
Acres of Diamonds, a local charity in Duvall, Washington, effectively supports homeless mothers and children, housing and assisting 44 families and 50 children last year. The charity is highly efficient, with 94.5% of revenue from public support, fundraising costs of $10.80 per $100 raised, and a 79% efficiency rate, meeting or exceeding standards set by CharityWatch, Charity Navigator, and the BBB. Contributions have doubled to $4 million in 2025, and the organization's financials and impact are transparent and verifiable.
Ticker: AADX
Thesis: Applied Aerospace & Defense, Inc. (AADX) is a critical supplier of essential components to major aerospace and defense contractors, with a strong backlog, long-term customer relationships, and significant growth in key segments. Despite a recent stock drop due to a one-time, non-cash accounting charge related to its IPO, the company's fundamentals remain strong. The stock is undervalued, with a price target of $26.00, representing a 45% upside from current levels.
Actionable View: Long AADX at current prices, with a target of $26.00, driven by robust demand, sole-source contracts, and a favorable regulatory environment pushing for domestic sourcing.
Winmark Corporation (NASDAQ: WINA) operates as a franchisor of category-specific resale stores under brands like Plato’s Closet, Once Upon A Child, and Play It Again Sports, with 1,378 franchised stores as of 2025. Unlike traditional retailers, Winmark provides the brand, training, and operational systems, while franchisees handle store operations and inventory. The company's focus on a multichannel retail model, combining physical stores with online platforms, positions it to capitalize on the growing resale market.
Vanshap Capital's Evan Vanderveer argues that Nubank ($NU) is undervalued, comparing it to Capital One in 1994 due to its tech-driven model, 140 million customers, 20% efficiency ratio, and 30% ROE. However, the post questions if Nubank is more akin to Capital One in 2006, given the risks of mature market dynamics, high NPLs, and the potential for AI to commoditize financial products.
The post draws a parallel between Nvidia's financial backing of AI data centers and the telecom equipment vendor financing boom of the late 1990s, highlighting the risk of vendor-enabled demand creation. The key thesis is that while Nvidia's current structures are more sophisticated and asset-backed, a slowdown in AI compute demand could still lead to significant financial risks. Ticker: NVDA.
DoorDash’s focused and integrated approach to autonomous delivery offers a more coherent and less risky long-term strategy compared to Uber’s fragmented and divested efforts, as evidenced by Uber’s recent sale of its stake in Serve. This divergence suggests DoorDash (DASH) is better positioned in the autonomous delivery space, warranting a closer look for potential investment.
EOG Resources (EOG) delivered a 16.6% annualized return on a put-selling trade, exceeding the initial 9.4% target, due to a rally in energy prices. The trade was closed early after 36 days, allowing for capital reallocation to other opportunities.
Institutional investors, including AQR Capital Management, Greenlight Capital, and GAMCO Investors, have shown significant buying interest in Versant Media Group Inc. (VSNT), with AQR initiating the largest position of 5.8 million shares valued at $210 million. This broad institutional support across diverse investment strategies suggests strong potential in VSNT.
The core thesis is to identify and invest in high-quality businesses with strong returns on capital and trustworthy management, even if they are not deeply discounted. The actionable view is to focus on companies that can sustain high returns over the long term, such as those with durable competitive advantages. No specific ticker or data point is provided.
The post discusses how Western oil supermajors, particularly Chevron, capitalized on Kazakhstan's independence from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, leading to significant oil production increases. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in Novorossiysk, a critical export route for Kazakh and Russian oil, have raised concerns about the broader implications of the Ukraine conflict on global energy infrastructure and Western strategic interests. Ticker: CVX.
Bison Insights, focused on mispriced small-cap energy stocks, has seen its composite index rise 93% in the past year, outperforming the XOP (48%) and S&P 500 (24%). The key thesis is that smaller companies, often overlooked by large funds, offer significant upside potential due to under-appreciated asset value and improving financials, making them attractive for active, selective investors.
The post argues that the decline of North Sea gas production is leading the UK to rely more on carbon-intensive LNG imports, which could be mitigated by increasing domestic North Sea production. However, this raises complex geopolitical and environmental questions, including the UK's leadership role in global climate efforts and the potential signal it sends to other nations. The author also highlights that Norway's North Sea production has outpaced the UK's, suggesting that political and economic factors, not just geological maturity, play a significant role.
Actionable Insight: Investors should monitor the UK's North Sea drilling policies and their impact on LNG imports, as this could influence carbon emissions and energy costs. (Tickers: BP, RDS.A, RDS.B)
The Lund Loop argues that crypto is not dead, despite recent market turmoil, citing the resilience of core blockchain infrastructure and growing institutional interest. The post suggests that investors should consider accumulating positions in undervalued crypto assets, particularly in protocols with strong fundamentals and real-world utility, such as Ethereum (ETH).
Trump's aggressive rhetoric, including threats of nuclear strikes, escalates tensions with Iran, potentially impacting energy supplies and prices. This could lead to higher oil prices, benefiting oil producers like XOM.
France is resisting the implementation of online age verification systems, viewing them as a potential trojan horse for broader digital identity tracking. This resistance could impact companies like IDnow (IDNW) and Jumio (JMO), which provide age verification services, as regulatory hurdles and public scrutiny increase.
Core Thesis/Argument: As summer ends, there's a rise in Covid-19 infections and rare mosquito-borne diseases like dengue, while vaccination rates for preventable diseases are declining. The FDA has approved a new mRNA flu vaccine (mFlusiva) for adults aged 50 and older, which is more effective but comes with more side effects.
Actionable Market View: The decline in vaccination rates could lead to increased demand for vaccines and related healthcare services, benefiting companies like Moderna (MRNA) and Pfizer (PFE). The new mRNA flu vaccine, while more effective, faces challenges in availability and uptake, particularly for those aged 50-64.
Nvidia (NVDA) is expanding its partnership with OpenAI to enhance data center capabilities, while Anthropic continues to impress with its growing revenue. Google's acquisition of Spirit Airlines data suggests a renewed focus on leveraging data as a strategic asset, potentially validating the "data is the new oil" narrative.
The core thesis is that rising bond yields in the U.S. and Japan are signaling a significant repricing of risk, which could lead to a bursting of the AI bubble and broader market volatility. The actionable market view is to be cautious on long-duration assets, particularly AI stocks, as higher interest rates will compress valuations. Key data points: U.S. 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.32%, its highest since 2007, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield reached 2.945%, its highest since 1996.
A group of 17 Malaysian motorcyclists faced multiple fines and a lengthy traffic stop in Hat Yai, sparking calls for a boycott of Thailand on social media. This incident, combined with perceived double standards in traffic enforcement, could exacerbate the decline in Thai tourism, where foreign arrivals are already down 2.9% year-over-year. Ticker: THAI Tourism Authority (TAT) or related tourism stocks may face pressure if the boycott gains traction.
The post discusses how Western oil supermajors, particularly Chevron, capitalized on Kazakhstan's independence from the Soviet Union in the 1990s, securing lucrative deals that significantly boosted the country's oil production. Recent Ukrainian drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) pipeline, which is crucial for Kazakh oil exports, have raised concerns about the broader implications of the Ukraine conflict, potentially threatening Western strategic interests and energy security. Ticker: CVX.
The author reflects on a recent trip to Kyiv during a tense geopolitical period, feeling cynical about human nature. However, an act of kindness from an elderly Ukrainian woman on the train ride back to Warsaw, who shared her limited food and supplies, rekindled the author's faith in humanity. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the post emphasizes the enduring human capacity for generosity and kindness.
The post highlights the widening economic disparity in NYC, where a small segment of the population is thriving while the majority is struggling, a trend reflective of a K-shaped recovery. This divergence could impact consumer spending and urban real estate, suggesting a cautious approach to retail and commercial property stocks like Simon Property Group (SPG) and Macy's (M).
The author argues that San Francisco's restaurant scene, while not as robust as NYC or LA due to smaller population and high rent, still offers good value and quality, particularly in pseudo-izakayas, which blend traditional Japanese small plates with creative, experimental dishes. The post emphasizes "yums per dollar" as a key criterion for restaurant recommendations, focusing on value rather than just quality. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The post argues that the "Desert Storm Model" of American military dominance, characterized by precision strikes and rapid, low-casualty operations, is now broken due to the "Second Missile Age," where cheaper and more precise missile technology has leveled the playing field. This shift, evident in the ongoing Iran conflict, signals the end of American military preeminence and the transition to a multipolar world. The actionable market view is that the depletion of U.S. missile stockpiles and the increased vulnerability of forward bases will lead to higher defense spending and a push for allies to increase their own military capabilities, benefiting defense contractors like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTX).
John Quiggin explores how Taylor Swift transformed from a pop megastar to a cultural and economic phenomenon by re-recording her back catalogue and leveraging her business acumen, setting her apart from contemporaries and aligning her with iconic figures like Elvis and The Beatles. Swift's success highlights a shift in the music industry where innovation is less about radical new styles and more about building a broad, loyal audience over decades, particularly among women aged 16-36. Quiggin's analysis suggests that Swift's billionaire status raises questions about income distribution and public policy, which he will explore further with additional donations. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
The post argues that a sharp rise in anti-Rohingya hate speech on Malaysian social media since mid-2026 is driven by organized, paid cybergroups rather than spontaneous public anger. These groups use coordinated amplification, fabricated content, and engagement farming to generate high engagement, which platforms reward through algorithms. The actionable market view is that companies benefiting from anti-refugee narratives, such as those bringing in foreign workers, may see indirect financial gains, while social media platforms like Meta (META) and TikTok face ongoing challenges in moderating this content.
South Korea's economy is projected to grow by 3% this year, driven by strong semiconductor exports, boosting per capita income to nearly $50,000. This positive trend supports President Lee's political survival and underscores the critical role of the semiconductor sector, benefiting companies like Samsung (SSNLF).
PAS is rebranding itself as a modern, technocratic party that emphasizes ethical governance, transparency, and accountability, while respecting the constitutional rights and cultural practices of all Malaysians. This shift aims to position PAS as a credible government-in-waiting, capable of managing a diverse and complex society. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the article suggests that PAS's policies could support a more stable and inclusive economic environment, potentially attracting investment and fostering regional development.
Weak July economic data from China highlights a domestic-demand slowdown, with service retail sales and high-tech investment areas showing resilience (electronic-circuit manufacturing investment up 57.7%, integrated-circuit manufacturing up 11.5%). Consider overweight positions in high-tech and digital manufacturing sectors, particularly in companies like Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC: 688981.SS).
The post is an open thread with no specific investment thesis. However, it highlights two actionable points: 1) The AI Security Bootcamp is running a free, intensive program in San Francisco from October 4-10, focusing on securing emerging AI systems (apply at [https://aisb.dev/sf26/](https://aisb.dev/sf26/)). 2) Preorders for Garrison Lovely’s book "Obsolete," which discusses AI existential risk from a left-wing perspective, are now available on Amazon.
Mark Walter, the LA Lakers owner, was compelled to sell the team amid a criminal investigation linked to a sovereign wealth fund, likely Mubadala. The buyout by Jared Kushner and Michael Iger suggests potential regulatory or reputational risks for entities involved with Mubadala, warranting caution in related investments (e.g., Disney, ticker: DIS).
Vanshap Capital's Evan Vanderveer argues that Nubank ($NU) is undervalued, comparing it to Capital One in 1994 due to its tech-driven model, 140 million customers, and high efficiency ratio. However, the post questions if Nubank is more like Capital One in 2006, given the challenges of sustaining high ROEs and expanding across borders. Despite these concerns, Vanderveer remains bullish, highlighting Nubank's potential to tap into Brazil's $100 billion banking profit pool and expand into Mexico, Colombia, and the US.
Core Thesis: MicroStrategy (MSTR) common stock has become a sacrificial asset, repeatedly diluted to finance the company's broader capital structure, including building a cash reserve and supporting preferred securities, rather than being used to acquire more Bitcoin. This strategy prioritizes the protection of Bitcoin holdings and preferred shareholders over common shareholders, leading to significant underperformance and increased risk for MSTR holders.
Actionable Market View: MSTR is down 73% over the last year, and recent capital raises, such as the $333.7 million from selling 3.46 million shares, were used to repurchase preferred shares (STRC) and build a cash reserve, not to buy more Bitcoin. This suggests that owning MSTR is increasingly unattractive, especially for those bullish on Bitcoin, who might consider holding Bitcoin directly or preferred securities instead.
The Tax Foundation argues that vehicle miles traveled (VMT) taxes can fund roads efficiently without compromising driver privacy, addressing a key concern that has hindered their adoption. This could lead to increased support for VMT taxes, benefiting infrastructure-focused companies like CAT and AECOM.
The Maryland Tax Court has invalidated the state’s digital advertising tax, ruling it unconstitutional and ordering refunds for collections dating back 5.5 years. This decision could positively impact companies like Facebook (FB) and Google (GOOGL), which have been paying this tax, potentially boosting their near-term financials.
The Dominican Republic's rushed tax reform process highlights the importance of consultation, transparency, and clarity in successful tax legislation. Effective tax reform requires a deliberate and inclusive approach to avoid market disruptions and ensure broad support. No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.
The growing market share of electric vehicles (EVs) is eroding the gas tax's ability to fund road projects, leading to a fiscal gap in road expenditures. This trend could pressure states to implement alternative funding mechanisms, such as EV-specific taxes or fees, to bridge the funding shortfall. (No specific ticker, but watch for potential impacts on infrastructure and EV-related stocks.)