[dry-run excerpt] How Meta designed Muse: an AI agent people actually want to talk to | Alex Cornell (Design Director) Listen now on YouTube • Spotify • Apple Podcasts Brought to you by: WorkOS —Make your app enterprise-ready, with SSO, SCIM, RBAC, and more Alex Cornell is a design director at Meta, where he leads design for Muse. In this episode, he explains how progressive disclosure makes Muse approachable for c…
[dry-run excerpt] Alex Cornell is a design director at Meta, where he leads design on Muse, Meta’s consumer AI agent. He came to the role with a long background in software product design, including time as a founder, and has spent the past year building one of the most thoughtful agent interfaces in the consumer AI space. Muse ships with a custom avatar, a three-layer status display, a personalized ideas surface, …
[dry-run excerpt] By the Panda Perspectives Team | 12 October 2026 Good morning, A somewhat delayed wrap but nevertheless we wanted to push one out as a lot is going on. Without much ado, China recorded 826 million domestic trips over Golden Week. Travellers spent roughly Rmb894 per trip, a little less than last year. Home sales improved in selected cities, but the housing inventory remained substantial. The holida…
[dry-run excerpt] I am continuing to build up the REIT pocket of my portfolio. Currently I hold $WY, $BYG.L, $DLN.L, $GRI.L and now $RYN. I look at and more as land REITs than as timber REITs. The land is the core asset, timber is a realized option. THE THESIS IN SHORT Rayonier owns 4.1 million acres of American timberland — 3.2 million in the South, 930,000 in the Pacific Northwest — together with six sawmills, an…
[dry-run excerpt] We are delighted to share with you our audio program on Charlie Munger, vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway and chairman of Wesco Financial and the Daily Journal Corporation, part of the Great Investors podcast by Latticework. Each program in the series is an hour-long narrated profile of one investor, drawn from the investor’s own letters, talks and meetings. We make these programs so that member…
[dry-run excerpt] Mercado Libre is a 95 Billion USD e-commerce and finance company in Latin America. I wanted to give it a deeper review to Mercado Libre for a while, in order to see if I am not missing an incredible opportunity. In this article, I want to see the big picture and I focused all my energy on estimating the potential of the company as a long term investment. 1.Short History “In 1999, four entrepreneur…
[dry-run excerpt] We’re really astounded by everyone in this community. Thank you so very much for all of your support and for such detailed questions. If you couldn’t make it, here’s the recording for our Inner Circle members. Again, we went a bit overboard with 90 minutes of discussion, so if your question wasn’t answered, expect a DM with our take. We’ve left a timetable below in case you want to jump directly t…
[dry-run excerpt] The Bristlemoon Global Fund returned -8.4 percent for the September 2026 quarter, with a -5.9 percent return for the month of September 2026, net of fees. Key performance contributors in the month of September included ASML, Sandisk, and Lam Research. Notable performance detractors over the same period included PAR Technology Corporation, Hemnet Group, and Baltic Classifieds Group. In our Septembe…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the 87th investment case and 48th AI & Technology idea on Crack The Market (and the most comprehensive Marvell investment case you will find online). Join me as I dissect the company that went from $190m of data center revenue when its CEO arrived to a guided $18bn next year , that traded at around 13x forward earnings in March while the market argued it had lost its largest custom chip…
[dry-run excerpt] Today's batch contains 6 new net nets, with the better one behind the paywall. With this batch, I’ve now written up 32 stocks on the list and ranked them all in the Google Sheet tracker for premium subscribers. 8 of the 32 have a 1 (out of 5, with 1 being the most attractive). Again, a 1 just means I’d consider it for a net net basket. It isn’t a recommendation to buy, and nothing here is investme…
[dry-run excerpt] You can access the PDF of the Jenga IP Quarterly letter here . The Jenga Global Master Fund returned 8.10% in Q3 2026, versus the benchmark (MSCI World Index) return of 1.88%. The Fund outperformed its benchmark by 6.22% during the quarter, bringing the YTD 2026 return to 4.49%, versus the benchmark’s 11.75%. Global Outperformers is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support …
[dry-run excerpt] While the AI mania will no doubt be front of mind for most folks as the driver of the now 4 year bull market, it’s important to recognize just how much fiscal and monetary policy greased the wheels a… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Equity market breadth improved last week. However, the Russell 2000 has fallen for five consecutive weeks despite relatively healthy underlying earnings growth. The macro begins shifting towards earnings this week. Utilities were the best performing sector, while technology was the worst. An important week ahead, with bank earnings and Wednesday’s U.S. CPI report. 10Y yields fell 3 bps in the U.S.…
[dry-run excerpt] Regional import price inflation has eased, but will likely rebound before year-end. Export price inflation is accelerating, being lifted by chips and other AI-tech. Consumer price expectations and bank lending in Japan remain strong. Taiwan tax revenue is growing by 20% YoY.
[dry-run excerpt] Global liquidity fell for the first time in almost three months as weaker collateral values and a stronger US dollar weighed on liquidity conditions. Still the collateral multiplier is at a record high indicating that collateral haircuts have yet to adjust to the recent jump in volatility. Investor risk appetite is easing, with flows shifting away from Asian EM toward commodity producers and the U…
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[dry-run excerpt] Hello, Haymakers: Regular Haymaker readers have been repeatedly informed of our affinity for both Brazilian stocks and bonds. On the latter, we pointed out the extreme attraction of 15% yields on their 10-year government bonds, denominated in Brazil’s currency, the real, earlier this year. As you can see, those yields have now receded materially for a reason to be shortly discussed. (We’ll also sh…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now There is a widely held belief that the cover of the Economist is a contra indicator. The Economist itself also covers this question in an article . The quantitative analysis concludes no. For me, I feel like the cover is too narrow. I feel you need to read the main lead article to see what their logic is to really get an idea of it contra indicator ability. For me, reading the articl…
[dry-run excerpt] The setup September CPI hits Wednesday at 8:30 ET. The Fed hiked to 3.75% to 4.00% last month, and the next decision is October 28. Record gasoline prices tied to the Hormuz disruption areng the heavy lifting on the headline. The Cleveland Fed nowcast sits at 0.53% headline and 0.20% core. What the market is pricing These are Kalshi odds as of Monday morning. NinjaTrader Predict trades the same co…
[dry-run excerpt] The 3rd quarter of 2026 is over. Here’s a recap of some of the themes that we’ve seen and are watching going forward at The Transcript. We have made this edition available to all subscribers. If you’re not a premium subscriber already, we hope that you will read this and subscribe. Share The Transcript Macro The US economy remains strong. Consumer spending and employment are steady. Business confi…
[dry-run excerpt] This week we’re joined by Phil Trammell , economist at Stanford and senior researcher at Epoch AI , and co-author (with Chad Jones) of the “When GDP Misleads” paper we covered earlier. Phil is one of the most original thinkers on the economics of AI, and he brought his priors to an unusual assignment: a science-fiction scenario. We read the AI 2040 “Plan A” essay: a future in which the US and Chin…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi, Resending the free-month offer since only 12 of you have used it so far. The Guardian Research Discord opened on Whop a few days ago. Paid subscribers get their first 3 months free: https://whop.com… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] $100 put into the book on March 13, 2025 was worth $230 at the end of September. The same $100 in the S&P 500 was worth $131. That is +129.6% time-weighted and net over about a year and a half, or 71.0% a year annualized against 19.2% for the index. This year alone the book is up 49.0% to the S&P’s 12.4%, a 36.6 point lead. It has beaten the index in 13 of 19 months and finished positive in 12. Th…
[dry-run excerpt] We wrote about Sprouts Farmers Market Inc (SFM) on 1 st Oct 2024. This was an “Initiating Coverage” type note and can be found here . We wrote subsequent reports on Nov 14, 2024, and on 27 th October 2025, and these can be found here. and here. We had invested 1% of our portfolio on October 1 st , 2024 at ~$111 per share. We added a further 1% on November 14, 2024, at $142 per share. Our average c…
[dry-run excerpt] On September 8 this year, Meta launched Muse. The very next day, I shared my first impressions of Muse, and in that piece, I promised I would share more thoughts in a month on how I’m actually using the product. Today’s piece delivers on that promise. Rather than walking through everything I’m doing with Muse, I’ll start with the use cases where Muse has surprised me most positively, and then ment…
[dry-run excerpt] Today’s idea: Shares down 80% from 2022 highs Recently cut dividend by 50% leaving room for deleveraging FLO trades at 7.5x earning and 6.4x EBITDA with 3.6x leverage For new subscribers — these write-ups are meant to be a “jumping off point” for the idea generation process (i.e. a surface level review). Each write-up includes: (1) company background; (2) why the idea is interesting; and (3) fair …
[dry-run excerpt] Disclaimer: Nothing posted by P14 Capital should be considered financial advice. The author of this post may hold positions in the tickers discussed. Please consult a financial advisor and/or conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions. Subscribe for free. The name of the game is to buy low and sell high. Easy to say, exceptionally hard to time, especially with a stock as sen…
[dry-run excerpt] CT Automotive designs, develops and manufactures bespoke automotive interior components, kinematic assemblies and associated tooling for global OEMs and Tier-1. CTA now trades at P/TB 0.68x after the stock declined 60% since July. Note that CTA’s financials are in USD while the stock trades in GBP. This is the 36th write-up of our net-net / deep value project through which we aim to look under the…
[dry-run excerpt] I have put together a Weekly Trading Ideas summary table below. This will be a useful resource if/when the market improves. As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on both Substack and Discord). Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This week’s Acquirer’s Multiple® All Investable Stocks Screener highlights a broad range of potentially undervalued businesses beyond the largest and most closely followed companies. The All Investable universe includes the Large Cap 1000 but extends further into the middle of the market-cap spectrum, where companies generally receive less analyst coverage and may be more likely to become misprice…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed How to Evaluate Options Trades: Risk, Return and Capital Protection. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Tobias] Right. They’re not speculative positions. We’re trying to find positions that have a good risk reward, good handicapping, and you can see what your expected return is and also where you’re likely, if th…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Jeff Weniger discussed Is the Stock Market Already Crashing Beneath the Surface? Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Jeff] Well, you never know, but Nike’s a good example of just the fickle nature of apparel, fashion trends. That one was so fascinating because I’m going to take a wild guess here that that thing was unstoppable for a good 15 years…
[dry-run excerpt] “When you look at it from the perspective of it being your money, it doesn’t keep us up at night if somebody else is making some money on principles that we don’t agree with…. Compounding works best if you shoot for absolute returns. Inflation plus 10% has always been our bogey…. There have always been periods where others did very well in worlds that w… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Old trends intact Watches, intact, now Omega-led. r/omegawatches is new on the trending list at +34,790/mo (18%). r/vintagewatches is in its third week at +20,831/mo (15%). r/reptime +38% YoY. Seiko Presage 104 to 127 pop, momentum +13.6 to +20.8; Seiko Prospex cooled from +8.3 to +1.5. Tudor, Bulova and Grand Seiko rows carried over. Fountain pens, intact. r/fountainpens +44,022/mo, flat versus l…
[dry-run excerpt] Please see the chronological order of the oil trade game plan write-ups: August 25, Sept 1 , Sept 8, Sept 23, Sept 30 In my last game plan article, I explained that: All intervention policies were exhausted (US and Europe SPR, and fake peace-deal headlines). I noted that the possibility of a deal was very low, and if the US did not concede to Iran’s demands, we would see escalation in the Oman Lan…
[dry-run excerpt] Editor’s Note : This article was first published to paid subscribers on October 6th. On Sept 28, I wrote an article titled, “ The Oman Lane Flow Is Giving The Oil Market A False Sense Of Stability .” Market participants began pointing out that Oman Lane flow was reaching “pre-war” levels. Instead of asking why oil prices remained so elevated or why the physical market remained in distress, most ma…
[dry-run excerpt] I was fortunate to be invited to share my views on oil markets on CNBC last night: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2026/10/12/oil-prices-are-a-coiled-spring-ready-to-snap-back-cio.html Subscribe now I shared my perspective on the oil market - that oil prices are likely to rise from here, for a number of reasons, as I most recently wrote in this article last week: And we discussed various recent news ev…
[dry-run excerpt] The Fed spent last week explaining why it can wait. The September minutes showed most participants expecting another hike by year-end, with little urgency about timing. Waller wants two more hikes, though not at consecutive meetings, and Williams sees no need to rush. Even Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who said earlier this month that rates need to rise at least another 50bps, noted that highe…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to another issue of Recent Academic Research ! Let’s get into it. The Activeness Hiding in Passive Investing Japanese index funds built on niche themes charge higher fees, attract investors who stop paying attention to those fees, and then go on to underperform. Japan has moved into passive investing faster than the US. As plain market trackers raced toward zero fees, fund managers fo…
[dry-run excerpt] Executive Summary SVRN, Inc. is not an AI infrastructure company, and it didn't start as a digital asset treasury. Until this year, it was OceanPal Inc., a small shipping company spun off from Diana Shipping in November 2021. What the market is valuing today is a listing that has been reverse split four times since 2022, for a lifetime factor of 100,000 to 1, wrapped around roughly 55.5 million NE…
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[dry-run excerpt] European governments cannot uphold the social contract as systemic shifts have stripped monetary control and constrained fiscal policy.
[dry-run excerpt] Carney is doing what he has always done: defend the interests of the international rentier class.
[dry-run excerpt] SpaceX's mobile strategy is becoming clearly with its latest spectrum purchase, and it might work.
[dry-run excerpt] Show Notes: On today’s show Andrew and Bill begin with an extended survey of EU-PRC trade dynamics in the wake of an eventful week. Topics include: a deal on hybrid exports that may have averted a trade war, potential loopholes that may complicate the effectiveness of that reform, the tools proposed by France and Germany that may have forced a compromise, tensions that remain unresolved as the EU …
[dry-run excerpt] June was busy and kind of rough, both personally and with the business. Lots of travel and still dealing with the financial fallout of a big tax bill and continuing cash burn from my real estate investments. It’s hard when you feel you are making little to no progress. We are wired for progress so when you feel like your momentum is gone, it’s easy to feel down. Being a bit sick from a cold due to…
[dry-run excerpt] Image via The Nobel Prize I have a Google Doc with a long list of posts I’ve been meaning to write. Far down the list was a line that read “New Keynesian macroeconomics deserves a Nobel”. Somehow I never got around to writing that post, and now I never will. Because today, it happened! This year’s Econ Nobel went to Bob Hall and Mike Woodford, two of the theory’s most important creators. First, le…
[dry-run excerpt] Share In the global effort to combat institutional corruption, whistleblowers stand as a critical line of defense. However, governments seeking to insulate deeply entrenched systems of power often weaponize broad security laws to maintain control. In Malaysia, where political elites, powerful corporate networks, and royalist factions hold significant sway over public life, the Sedition Act 1948 ha…
[dry-run excerpt] The UN, whose duties extended to combatting war crime and genocide, has been reduced to bearing witness.
[dry-run excerpt] Sailors aboard the Japanese destroyer JDS Kongo as it moors in Pearl Harbour. Less than 10 percent of Japanese support sending troops to fight China in a Taiwan contingency. Thats according to the 19th National Public Opinion Poll on Media, conducted by the Japan Press Research Institute (新聞通信調査会) and released on October 10. Just 9.9 percent of respondents support sending the Self-Defense Forces (…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Cameron Magusic Photo from Georgetown University Acclaimed Uyghur poet and human rights advocate Abduweli Ayup has been invited to give a presentation at the Sorbonne University in Paris on Oct. 24, documenting linguicide and family separation in Xinjiang. Speaking from his home in Norway, Ayup said he plans to use the occasion –which he will fund using his own resources – to reveal that 47,00…
[dry-run excerpt] Share For almost a century the media stood as the “Fourth Estate,” charged with keeping governments honest by exposing what those in power preferred to hide. It brought a measure of transparency and accountability to both parliamentary and presidential systems of government. The Fourth Estate exposed Watergate, the realities of Vietnam, the false premises of the Iraq war, and the tortures carried …
[dry-run excerpt] This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit , Discord , and bulletin board , and in-person meetups around the world . Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here . Also: 1: Meetup updates: Stanford EA is changing from October 13 to October 25. 2: ACX grantee Legal Impact For Chickens…
[dry-run excerpt] In this issue: 1. Guidelines for developing new quality productive forces 2. Outcomes from EU-China trade talks 3. Improving new car design safety and quality 4. Cracking down on food safety violations The Feed: Business, Economy and Trade - Politics and Law - Foreign and Defense Affairs - Hong Kong - Taiwan - Tech and Media - Society, Arts, Sports, Culture and History - Energy, Environment, Scien…
[dry-run excerpt] On my jog yesterday morning I was listening to a podcast about gambling addiction and heard the host bring up the age-old story of a guy selling sports betting picks. The host laughed and asked the obvious question: if this guy is so good at picking winners, why does he need to sell his picks? Why doesn’t he just bet on them himself and get rich? It’s a fair question, and one I’ve asked about plen…
[dry-run excerpt] Three OpenAI safety researchers, Tomek Korbak, Mikita Balesni and Jasmine Wang , were fired, ostensibly for ‘mishandling sensitive company information.’ Those employees have published an open letter. The employees have said they believe they were fired for safety advocacy, and that the reasons given were pretextual. The letter calls upon OpenAI to take actions going forward on open discussion and …
[dry-run excerpt] Djibouti At least 139 people, including at least 15 children, drowned after a boat capsized while sailing from Djibouti to Yemen, according to the United Nations' International Organization for Migration (IOM). About 84 passengers from the vessel, which was carrying more than 300 people, are unaccounted for, meaning the death toll may rise. There were around 82 survivors, the IOM said, all of whom…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. 🆕 New on the site: follow the companies and funds you care about Follow a company and we email you whenever a fund manager writes about it — a full pitch or a single paragraph in a quarterly letter. Follow a fund and we email you the day its new letter is out. Every stock now has its own pag…
[dry-run excerpt] Whether called "artifiical intelligence" or "super intelligence" the biggest players in the industry need massive capital infusions.
[dry-run excerpt] Another very worrying week with S&P making a new all time high. As I said last week, the pain trade is up. As I also wrote last week, I think people are spending far too much time worrying about the next hike, and I think the focus this quarter will shift back to micro. I still think this earnings season gets us to 8,000 which isn’t too far now, compared to when I first mentioned it. But beyond th…
[dry-run excerpt] Summary: Just a short one this week. I’m traveling back to my home in Costa Rica and my first leg didn’t have wifi, so here we go… The evidence still points to the pain trade being higher, but rotation looks likely, with overpositioning in the AI trade crossed against underpositioning in everything else, especially smallcaps, which may see relief on a rebound in deeply oversold bonds. We go over m…
[dry-run excerpt] Microsoft is amping up its AI chip game. On Monday, the company announced plans to expand its Azure Maia AI chip program to multi-gigawatt-scale deployments starting next year. Microsoft also said its next-generation Maia 300 chip will deliver 40% more tokens per megawatt than leading GPU-based competitors and will begin production deployments in 2027. Microsoft is a giant hyperscaler and one of t…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to another issue of Recent Academic Research ! Let’s get into it. The Activeness Hiding in Passive Investing Japanese index funds built on niche themes charge higher fees, attract investors who stop paying attention to those fees, and then go on to underperform. Japan has moved into passive investing faster than the US. As plain market trackers raced toward zero fees, fund managers fo…
[dry-run excerpt] Asian Century Stocks recently did a report on elevator stocks that’s worth noting: 💻 Toll roads in the sky (Asian Century Stocks) $ Clients then typically enter into long-term contracts of, say, 5 years, where the OEM provides recurring maintenance, routine inspections, emergency dispatch, repairs, etc. Elevators tend to be sold at razor-thin margins, with most profits coming later through these m…
[dry-run excerpt] Happy Thanksgiving! _______________ London’s Most Star-Studded Street: The Legacy of Cheyne Walk Famous Rock and Rollers, Royalty, Artists, Authors, Politicians, Billionaires, and Aristocrats have lived at London’s Cheyne Walk: Musicians: Mick Jagger, Marianne Faithfull, Keith Richards, Ronnie Wood, and Joe Strummer. Aristocracy & Early Owners: Lord Cheyne, Sir Hans Sloane, and Henry VIII (who own…
[dry-run excerpt] Last Thursday, the Dallas Cowboys fell to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 24-16, a football game in which the heavily favored Cowboys fell behind early and came up short after a late comeback attempt. What makes this game notable is the furious public reaction to the Cowboys’ sound 1 but counterintuitive endgame strategy, which echoes the furious public reaction to sound but counterintuitive public poli…
[dry-run excerpt] Our brain is designed to promote survival, not to make you happy. It rewards you with happy chemicals when you take action to meet a survival need. Travel is not consciously about survival needs, but our conscious brain doesn’t control the happy chemicals. They’re controlled by the limbic brain we’ve inherited from earlier mammals. Let’s see how travel helps your inner mammal to turn on the happy …
[dry-run excerpt] The federal government’s debt burden and interest on the debt are near record levels and headed higher, raising legitimate concerns about an eventual debt crisis. Given the increasingly dysfunctional budget process, the most viable option on the table to stave off such a crisis is a statutory bipartisan fiscal commission with buy-in from leaders of both parties.
[dry-run excerpt] Imposing sales taxes on rental car companies’ fleet purchases, in addition to the sales and rental car excise taxes levied when those cars are rented, yields double taxation and causes harmful tax pyramiding.
[dry-run excerpt] In addition to the federal estate tax, which has a top marginal rate of 40 percent, 12 states and the District of Columbia impose estate taxes, while five states levy inheritance taxes.
[dry-run excerpt] Suppose you get a $1,000 payment. How much do you consume? Before answering, we’d want to know a few things: Is this a one-time payment? The first of many? Can you borrow? Do you already have savings? This year’s Nobel Prize went to Robert Hall and Michael Woodford for providing the theory to make this concrete, the empirical work to test the theories, and showing how policy, optimal, and realisti…