← Latest letters
Fund-Manager Letters · Archive
What the Managers Are Saying
Earlier letters · 145 letters (older than the current window)
latest
- Outperformed Russell 1000 Growth by 570 bps in 3Q26 (6.7% vs. 0.9%), driven by strong stock selection in Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Financial Services, with top contributors including CrowdStrike (+1.5 ppt impact), Microsoft (+1.5 ppt), and ServiceNow (+1.3 ppt).
- Initiated new positions in Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK), while exiting Oracle (ORCL), reflecting a strategic shift toward high-growth memory and storage beneficiaries of AI infrastructure demand amid tightening capital markets.
- Notable detractors were Credo Technology (–0.7 ppt), Lam Research (–0.7 ppt), and Vertiv Holdings (–0.6 ppt), all pressured by sector-wide valuation de-rating and near-term spending concerns in AI-related capex despite solid fundamentals.
- Maintains conviction in high-quality, durable growth companies with strong balance sheets and pricing power, emphasizing resilience amid a higher-for-longer rate environment (10-year yield at 5.25%) and renewed Fed tightening (25 bp hike in September).
- Macro outlook centers on three key pressures: sustainability of hyperscaler capex, elevated cost of capital constraining long-duration valuations, and potential for legislative gridlock post-2026 midterms providing corporate stability.
latest
- Maintains a highly defensive stance with 75.5% of assets in Treasury bills; equity-only portfolio returned 4.8% in Q3, outperforming small-cap benchmarks which declined sharply (S&P SmallCap 600: -7.93%).
- Initiated new positions in Gentex (GNTX), Avista (AVA), and Smithfield Foods (SFD); exited Utz Brands (UTZ) post-acquisition announcement and rotated in/out of Clorox (CLX) opportunistically; trimmed WH Group (WHGLY) at higher prices.
- Top detractors in Q3 were Rayonier (RYN), Flowers Foods (FLO), and Reynolds Consumer Products (REYN); top contributors were Kelly Services (KELYA), ManpowerGroup (MAN), and Amdocs (DOX).
- Macro outlook is cautious, highlighting extreme valuations across tech, AI-driven asset inflation, and a K-shaped economy masked by official statistics; concerned about long-term consequences of policy-driven asset price support and understated inflation eroding real wages.
- Believes current market dispersion creates opportunities in overlooked small caps with strong cash flows and balance sheets (e.g., GNTX, AVA, SFD), while remaining skeptical of unprofitable AI plays and passive flows amplifying large-cap dominance.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a risk-averse, long-term stance focused on high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages and strong capital efficiency; remains skeptical of AI-driven market speculation, drawing parallels to the dot-com bubble due to lack of TFP growth despite massive capex.
- Exited positions in AI-heavy semiconductor and cloud infrastructure names (NVDA, SMH, AMD) amid concerns over negative free cash flow, commoditization, and overvaluation; initiated new positions in undervalued industrial (UNP) and specialty finance (TFC) firms with resilient cash flows and pricing power.
- Q3 2026 performance lagged major indices due to underweight in concentrated AI mega-caps (S&P 500 up +2.3%, NASDAQ +2.61%), but preserved capital amid rising volatility; year-to-date, fund return was +8.2% vs. S&P 500’s +12.73%, reflecting deliberate avoidance of speculative excess.
- Expects heightened market volatility and potential correction as macro risks—Middle East conflict, U.S. trade/immigration policy, sticky “supercore” inflation at +3.13%, and private credit stress—converge; sees opportunity in mean reversion if leadership broadens beyond narrow AI cohort.
- Macro outlook: U.S. GDP momentum improved in Q3 (+3.6% GDPNow estimate), but real wage erosion (–0.7% YoY), weakening payroll trends (+51k avg. vs. +68k earlier), and structural labor constraints pose downside risks; inflation remains above Fed target, complicating policy path into 2027.
Sep 2026
- Portfolio returned +0.1% in 3Q (net), bringing YTD performance to +12.4%, outperforming the Bloomberg U.S. Mid Cap Index (-3.35% in 3Q, +8.38% YTD) despite broad market volatility; performance was broad-based, contrasting last quarter’s semiconductor-driven rally.
- Added position in Texas Pacific Land (TPL), citing its high-margin land, water, and energy infrastructure businesses and emerging role in supporting data center and power generation buildouts in Texas; no notable exits disclosed.
- Top contributors included Phillips 66 (PSX), aided by geopolitical tensions and high oil prices, and Palo Alto Networks (PANW), which re-rated higher on rising AI security demand; semiconductor holdings like Arm (ARM) and Talen Energy (TLN) remain core AI infrastructure bets despite SOXX ETF’s -11% quarter.
- Maintains focus on high-growth companies resilient to multiple contraction, citing Vertiv (VRT) as an example—stock up 49% YTD despite P/E compression, driven by 28–40% EPS estimate growth; portfolio positioning emphasizes essential services with expanding addressable markets.
- Outlook remains constructive but cautious amid elevated rates (Fed raised to 3.75–4.0% in September, with 3–4 hikes priced over next year), Middle East tensions, and election uncertainty; views higher rates as limited in addressing inflation driven by energy and housing supply shocks, and plans to opportunistically add to quality holdings on weakness.
Sep 2026
- Third Point Offshore Fund returned -6.8% net in Q3 2026, underperforming both the S&P 500 (+2.3%) and the CS HF Event-Driven Index (-1.0%), driven by losses in semiconductor and data-center-adjacent names like SK Hynix, Flex Ltd., and MasTec amid a broad market de-risking around AI capital intensity and geopolitical tensions.
- The fund significantly reduced exposure to AI infrastructure and hyperscalers (e.g., exited or trimmed positions in SK Hynix, Flex, MasTec) and increased selectivity, shifting capital into financials, industrials, consumer, and live events; new long positions include APi Group (API), while a convertible loan was made in Nscale, a neocloud startup, for asymmetric exposure to AI infrastructure with downside debt protection.
- Top contributors included Atom Computing (private legacy holding), Warner Bros Discovery (WBD), Meta (META), Indra Sistemas (IDR), and Bausch Health (BHC); top detractors were SK Hynix (000660 KS), Flex (FLEX), MasTec (MTZ), CRH (CRH), and TTM Technologies (TTMI), with AI-related credit positions also weighing on returns.
- Manager maintains a cautious, defensive stance—lowering gross and net exposures—citing extreme market fragility, elevated rates (10-Year >5%), oil-driven inflation, and AI financing risks; believes current environment resembles pre-crisis periods (e.g., 2020, GFC), with opportunity likely emerging in credit, particularly in dislocated AI infrastructure bonds and structured credit (e.g., residential MBS, CLOs).
- Macro outlook centers on a "muddle-through" in the Middle East with oil elevated but infrastructure damage contained; expects continued dispersion between true AI beneficiaries and levered speculators, and warns that while long-term AI demand remains robust, near-term overbuilding and funding constraints are driving capital misallocation and creating mispriced securities.
Sep 2026
- Maintains broadly diversified mid-cap growth positioning with sector overweight in Industrials (25.8% vs 20.0% benchmark) and underweight in Financials (6.3% vs 15.6%); exited Bodycote (BOCY.L), Rotork (ROR.L), and EasyJet (EZJ.L) following takeover bids.
- Deployed proceeds into new positions Rosebank Industries (RBI.L), Morgan Sindall (MGNS.L), Entain (ENT.L), and Persimmon (PSN.L), capitalizing on M&A-driven valuation opportunities while maintaining focus on long-term cashflow growth.
- Underperformed benchmark over 1Q26 (6.83% vs 9.61%) and 1-year (9.59% vs 15.32%), with stock selection in industrials (Hill & Smith, Victrex) a positive offset by laggards IG Group (IGP.L) and Safestore (SAFE.L).
- Expects Bank of England to raise rates before year-end due to inflationary pressures and fiscal constraints, but sees ongoing M&A activity and relative valuation appeal supporting UK mid-cap equities.
- Notes increased equity fundraising by UK firms to fund acquisitions, suggesting improving conditions for active managers to exploit market inefficiencies amid resilient corporate earnings and cyclical investor appetite.
Sep 2026
- Maintains income-focused, benchmark-agnostic stance with 219 holdings; underperformed FTSE All-Share in Q3 due to negative bond allocation drag, though equity segment outperformed driven by Victrex, Johnson Matthey, Drax, and Hikma.
- Exited Sainsbury (SBRY.L), Currys (CURY.L), WH Smith (SMWH.L), DCC (DCC.L), ICG (ICG.L), and Bunzl (BNZL.L); initiated new positions in Rightmove (RMV.L), Rentokil (RTO.L), and Pollen Street (POLN.L), while trimming Victrex and Croda.
- Top sectors remain Financials (27.5%), Energy (13.4%), and Health Care (11.0%), overweight vs. benchmark; underweight Technology and Real Estate.
- Macro outlook cautious: expects BoE rate hikes by year-end due to inflation and fiscal pressures; sees UK equities supported by commodity exposure and M&A activity, but constrained by weak domestic demand and reliance on foreign capital.
- ESG engagement active: notable dialogues with BP (governance/succession), Barclays and HSBC (climate transition), and Tesco (equal pay litigation); supports board continuity at Close Brothers following succession plan.
Sep 2026
- Maintains broadly diversified positioning across sectors, overweight in Energy and Industrials (29.7% vs. benchmark 12.3%), underweight Financials and Technology; continues focus on undervalued companies with strong long-term cash flow potential.
- Exited positions in Segro (SGRO LN), Mitie (MTC LN), and Tesco (TSCO LN) following takeover bids and competitive pressures; reduced NatWest and Lloyds on fair value concerns. New positions initiated in Coats (COA LN), Cranswick (CWK LN), IG Group (IGG LN), Shaftesbury Capital (SHC LN), and Volex (VLX LN); increased stakes in Reckitt Benckiser (RKT LN) and Rightmove (RMV LN).
- Outperformed benchmark by +0.06% in the quarter (2.50% vs. 2.44%), driven by strong stock selection in Industrials (Volex, Hill & Smith) and M&A gains (Mitie, Vesuvius); YTD underperformance persists (-2.27%) due to laggard financials (Prudential, St James’s Place).
- Expects Bank of England to hike rates before year-end amid persistent inflation and fiscal tightening; sees UK equities as structurally distinct with valuation appeal, increasingly realized through active M&A and equity issuance funding deal activity.
- Positive on mid-cap and cyclical exposure, citing strong performance in UK homebuilders and suppliers on government housing loan programme; views ongoing M&A as key tailwind for active managers exploiting valuation dispersion.
Sep 2026
- Maintained a diversified, valuation-driven stance focused on undervalued long-term cashflows; portfolio activity centered on recycling proceeds from M&A exits into new opportunities, including a new position in Rentokil (RTO.L) and increased stakes in Unite Group (UTG.L) and Drax Group (DRAX.L).
- Exited positions in Rotork (ROR.L), DCC (DCC.L), Segro (SGRO.L), Bunzl (BNZL.L), and reduced exposure to weaker performers including IG Group (IGG.L), Imperial Brands (IMB.L), and ITV (ITV.L).
- Outperformed benchmark over the quarter (+4.01% fund vs. +2.44% benchmark), driven by strong stock selection in industrials and energy, notably gains in Drax, Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK.L), and Johnson Matthey (JMAT.L), partially offset by underperformance in financials and consumer sectors.
- Remains constructive on UK equities due to relative valuation appeal and rising M&A activity, despite macro headwinds from expected Bank of England rate hikes and tight fiscal policy ahead of the October 2026 Budget; sees opportunity in active management amid low correlation with global AI-driven trends.
Sep 2026
- Maintains broadly diversified, value-oriented stance across UK equities with 70 holdings; underweight financials and overweight real estate and industrials vs. benchmark, reflecting selective mid-cap exposure and reduced positions in NatWest and Lloyds on valuation grounds.
- Exited Segro (SGRO.L) following takeover bid, Tesco (TSCO.L) due to competitive retail pressures, Rentokil (RTO.L) over US pest control risks, and Haleon (HLE.L) on rich valuation; initiated new positions in Shaftesbury (SHB.L), Cranswick (CWK.L), Coats (COA.L), Clarkson (CSK.L), IG Group (IGG.L), Granger (GRI.L), Hikma (HIK.L), and Convatec (CTC.L), while adding to Reckitt (RKT.L) and British American Tobacco (BATS.L).
- Fund returned 1.92% (net) in Q3, underperforming FTSE All-Share (2.44%) due to laggards Prudential (PRU.L) on China regulatory concerns, St James’s Place (STJ.L) on adviser outflows, and Informa (INF.L) on Middle East disruption; offset by strong performance from Persimmon (PSN.L) and Savills (SVS.L).
- Expects Bank of England to hike rates before year-end amid inflation and fiscal tightening; sees UK equities as structurally distinct with valuation appeal, supported by M&A activity and mid-cap strength, particularly in housing and industrials, despite geopolitical and energy market risks.
Sep 2026
- Maintained broadly diversified positioning across sectors, emphasizing companies with undervalued long-term cash flows; outperformed benchmark in the quarter (3.23% vs. 2.44%) driven by strong stock selection in industrials and M&A-related gains from Rotork and Bodycote takeovers.
- Exited positions in Bodycote (BOY.L), DCC (DCC.L), Segro (SGRO.L), Rotork (ROR3.L), Bunzl (BNZL.L), and Sage Group (SGE.L) following takeovers or strong price recoveries; initiated new position in Compass Group (CPG.L) and added to new positions in Porvair (PRV.L), Genus (GNS.L), Howden Joinery (HWDN.L), RS Group (RSS.L), Shaftesbury Capital (SHC.L), and St James’s Place (SJP.L).
- Underperformed benchmark YTD (8.51% vs. 9.83%) and over 1-, 3-, and 5-year periods, with 1-year return at 14.23% net vs. 16.84% for the FTSE All-Share; lag attributed to financials exposure (IG Group, Barclays, Prudential) amid macro sensitivity and acquisition concerns at IG.
- Outlook remains cautious amid expected Bank of England rate hikes due to external supply shocks and fiscal constraints; sees UK equities as structurally distinct with valuation appeal and M&A activity providing opportunities, particularly in mid-caps and among companies raising equity for growth.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a long-duration stance (6.27 years vs. benchmark 5.04), favoring medium- and longer-dated bonds due to attractive valuations in less-efficient segments, despite headwinds from rising government yields; duration drag contributed to underperformance in Q3.
- Added new positions in AT&T (sterling issuance), Deutsche Telekom, Amazon (2045 bonds), Paragon Tier 2, Nationwide AT1 (~8% yield), and euro-hybrids from Bayer and Sysco; exited no major positions but increased exposure to structured credits including AA, Sunshine Mortgage, ICSL, and Canary Wharf.
- Fund returned –1.96% for the quarter vs. benchmark –1.74%, underperforming due to duration sensitivity, though stock selection added value—Intu Metrocentre, Telereal, Vantage Data Centres, and ICSL were top contributors.
- Outlook remains constructive on medium-term credit opportunities despite near-term pressure from elevated inflation, fiscal spending, and potential BoE hikes; expects continued yield volatility but sees current levels (6.90% redemption yield) as attractive for active managers to exploit inefficiencies in structured, secured, and less-followed issuers.
Sep 2026
- Maintains defensive, low-duration positioning (0.97 years) to mitigate sensitivity to rising government bond yields, with resilience demonstrated despite market volatility; performance lagged benchmark in Q3 (-0.78%) but remains ahead over 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year horizons.
- Added Caesars Entertainment (2030 bonds, ticker likely CZR 5.75% 01/15/2030), Nissan Motor (post-downgrade high yield entry, ticker NSANY 5.5% 03/15/2028), and United Group (Eastern European telecom, unrated); exited or reduced exposure to underperforming telecommunications holdings.
- Top contributors were BB-rated US and European credits in basic industries, leisure, and media; detractors included single-B names and telecoms; sector breadth supported consistent returns despite volatility.
- Outlook remains constructive on high yield due to attractive all-in yields (7.03% FX-adjusted) offering cushion against spread widening; focus ahead on Q4 earnings, US midterm election risks, and inflation pressures from elevated energy and food prices.
- Notable market trend: surge in AI-related issuance (data centers, digital infrastructure) emerging as key driver of high yield supply, with $482.7bn global YTD issuance sustaining robust primary market access.
Sep 2026
- Maintains overweight in CEEMEA (Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East & Africa), particularly favoring high yield, short-duration credits; remains underweight Asia due to unattractive valuations and limited high yield opportunities.
- Added positions in Damac (undisclosed ticker) amid real estate sector stress, citing compelling entry levels, and United Group (telecom, Eastern Europe) on improved credit fundamentals from asset disposals; no notable exits highlighted.
- Fund returned +0.37% (gross) in Q3, underperforming its EFFR benchmark (+0.91%) due to negative government bond-driven market sell-off, though high yield and CCC-rated bonds contributed positively to relative performance.
- Outlook remains constructive on EM corporates, supported by strong fundamentals and low defaults; sees value in short-duration high yield bonds as a hedge against rate volatility, but warns of risks from prolonged geopolitical tensions and potential primary market closures.
- Duration positioned at 1.54 years with 83.3% of holdings rated BB or lower, reflecting continued focus on resilient, high-income, shorter-dated corporate credits in CEEMEA and Latin America.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a long-duration, bottom-up credit selection stance focused on mid-to-longer-dated bonds; underperformance versus benchmark driven by duration sensitivity as gilt yields rose sharply (10-year UK gilt yield up to 5.43% from 4.76%), though carry and security selection supported relative returns.
- Added new positions in AT&T (sterling 2032 issuance), Amazon (GBP bonds), Desjardins Group (senior bond), Paragon Tier 2, Rothesay Life Tier 2, BUPA Tier 2, and Nuveen senior bond; exited no notable holdings but maintained underweight in supranationals.
- Q3 performance: -1.57% (fund) vs -1.74% (iBoxx reference index), contributing to YTD return of -0.22%; outperformance driven by strong security selection, particularly in structured credit (e.g., Metrocentre, Telereal) and sector allocation.
- Macro outlook: Expects continued volatility from sticky inflation, elevated energy prices, and fiscal pressures, but views current yield levels (6.72% redemption yield on fund) as attractive; emphasizes active management to exploit inefficiencies in commoditized credit markets.
- Portfolio positioned for resilience: overweight secured/collateralized debt, diversified across sectors and geographies, with focus on bottom-up research, relative value, and ESG engagement—highlighting recent dialogues with Barclays, HSBC, National Grid, and Tesco on climate and social risks.
Sep 2026
- Maintains defensive, diversified credit positioning with significant allocation to floating-rate loans (22.88%) and secured assets (25.22%); overweight Europe (40.6%) for attractive high yield opportunities.
- Added SoftBank (no ticker specified), Tenet, Cheplapharm, and Damac bonds; increased exposure to energy and technology sectors while reducing media holdings; no notable exits flagged.
- Fund returned -0.35% (gross) in Q3, underperforming SONIA benchmark (+0.93%) due to rising government bond yields, though loans provided resilience and B/CCC-rated credits contributed positively.
- Outlook remains constructive on high yield given 7.72% FX-adjusted yield cushion; expects spreads to remain rangebound despite geopolitical (Middle East) and inflation risks; monitoring upcoming earnings and US policy uncertainty as key catalysts.
- Macro backdrop features higher oil prices (~$100/barrel), elevated inflation (US CPI 3.4%, UK CPI 3.1%), and hawkish central banks (ECB and Fed hikes); UK gilt yields rose to 5.43% (10Y), pressuring duration-sensitive holdings.
Sep 2026
- Maintains defensive, quality-biased positioning with shorter duration (3.4 years) vs. benchmark; overweight European issuers for relative value, underweighting US amid growing AI-driven issuance trends.
- Added SoftBank (SFTBY) and Tenet Healthcare (THC) via new issues for attractive spreads and defensive quality; exited shorter-dated Pachelbel bonds, rotating into longer-dated tenors; added Damac and Cheplapharm (CPH.DE) in secondary market.
- Fund returned -1.41% (gross) in Q3, outperforming benchmark (-1.61%) due to energy sector resilience and defensive positioning; YTD gross return of 0.94%, lagging benchmark’s 0.83% but strong 10-year annualized outperformance (4.38% vs. 3.67%).
- Macro outlook remains cautious: elevated inflation (oil near $100/bbl, CPI ~3.4% in US/UK) and central bank hawkishness (ECB, Fed hikes) pressured government bonds, but high yield fundamentals remain strong with low defaults; sees current ~7.75% redemption yield as attractive cushion.
- Watching upcoming earnings for inflation impact, US midterms for policy risk, and AI infrastructure financing as growing theme; expects high yield spreads to remain rangebound despite geopolitical tensions (Middle East, France).
Sep 2026
- Maintains overweight in financials and energy (e.g., CME Group, Shell, Valero, Suncor) while underweight tech; added Nike (NKE) and ASML (ASML.AS) for turnaround potential and structural semiconductor leadership, respectively, funded by exits from Shimadzu, Ebara, and Paccar.
- Outperformed benchmark +0.76% in Q3 and +5.20% YTD, driven by stock selection in financials and industrials, though tech holdings (TSMC, BE Semiconductor) and lack of Meta exposure weighed on returns.
- Edenred (EDEN.PA) and energy names were top contributors amid Mideast-driven oil surge; LVMH (MC.PA) detracted due to luxury demand concerns, especially from China.
- Macro outlook emphasizes earnings resilience amid higher discount rates, with selectivity key; sees energy volatility and geopolitics (especially Middle East) as primary risks, while AI-driven capex continues to support broad equity markets.
- Expects US-China trade dynamics and central bank policy to influence semiconductor and export-dependent markets, with European equities facing headwinds from high energy costs and tighter monetary policy.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a slightly long duration stance (2.91 years) focused on medium- to longer-dated secured credits, overweighting less commoditized segments such as asset-backed and collateralized debt; continues to prioritize security selection and structural protection over macro bets.
- Added new positions in AA’s senior secured bond (AA Bond Co Ltd 3.25% 31/07/2050), Sunshine Mortgage Funding (equity release-backed), UK Logistics DAC (logistics CMBS), and international issues including Amazon (USD/GBP), Alphabet (GBP long-dated), Watercare (NZD debut), and euro-denominated hybrids from Bayer and Sysco; exited Road Management Services post-premium repayment.
- Q3 return of +0.28% lagged SONIA benchmark (+0.93%) due to rising UK government yields hurting duration-sensitive holdings, though stock selection in secured assets—Metrocentre, Logicor, ICSL, Canary Wharf—supported relative outperformance versus broader sterling credit (iBoxx IG: -1.74%).
- Expects continued volatility from elevated inflation, energy prices, and fiscal pressures driving higher government bond yields, but views current credit spreads and starting yields as attractive for medium-term income; favors active management to exploit inefficiencies in secured and underfollowed segments.
- Macro outlook centers on persistent inflation, ongoing central bank hawkishness (Fed, ECB hikes; BoE poised for tightening), rising energy costs (oil near $100/bbl), and supply-driven fiscal pressures from AI investment and defense spending, reinforcing preference for high-quality, income-generating, secured credit.
Sep 2026
- Maintained a tactically positive stance on equities, increasing exposure during August’s market rebound after reducing it in July amid Middle East tensions and AI-sector volatility; remains negatively positioned on government bonds due to rising yields, benefiting from duration shortening.
- Exited parts of the AI-linked technology segment amid valuation concerns in July but maintained sector exposure overall; added value through dynamic positioning in Japanese equities (JPY) and selectively increased exposure to emerging markets (EM) and US tech (e.g., semiconductor and data infrastructure plays) in Q3.
- Delivered quarterly return of -0.16% (gross), underperforming the benchmark (-0.05%) due to short-term volatility, but generated strong 1-year return of 6.77% (gross), outperforming at +1.09 percentage points, driven by energy sector allocation (e.g., oil-linked holdings) and commodities.
- Strategic tilt away from expensive US equities toward undervalued UK markets (GBP), while tactically favoring regions benefiting from AI growth—US, Japan (JPY), and select EMs—with continued positive tactical view on gold and broad commodities amid stagflationary concerns.
- Outlook shifted to Stagflation on the Investment Clock, citing resilient growth, rising bond yields, and persistent inflation; sees potential move into “Overheat” if current trends persist, supporting continued overweight to commodities and selective equity exposure, though cautious on prolonged rate hikes triggering recession.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a concentrated, long-term ownership stance focused on compounding exceptional businesses; portfolio positioning reflects discipline in holding winners like Meta (META), which has grown to a top holding organically through sustained compounding rather than active增持.
- Exited The Trade Desk (TTD) in Q2 2026 after deteriorating growth (revenue growth slowed to 3% before turning negative), loss of competitive clarity, selective disclosure, and eroding management credibility—including four CFOs in 14 months and governance concerns around founder control and incentives.
- Q3 2026 return of +11% drove partial recovery from YTD decline, reducing it to ~7% as of October 21; performance driven primarily by Meta and Shopify (SHOP), with Meta contributing significantly due to renewed confidence in AI reinvestment and user base stabilization.
- Macro outlook emphasizes patience amid volatility, rejecting short-term trading impulses; believes market prices eventually reflect business fundamentals, but only for investors willing to endure multi-year uncertainty—exemplified by Meta’s repeated recoveries from existential narratives.
- Philosophy centered on "owning winners longer" rather than frequent rotation; acknowledges past mistakes of trimming early, now prioritizing business quality and management integrity over modeled returns, with capital allocation driven by proven execution over time.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive stance with a tactical rating of 4/5 for global markets; reduced risk exposure incrementally by taking profits in equities and increasing allocations to diversified fixed income, while remaining underweight US equities due to stretched valuations.
- Added UK gilts (upgraded to positive 4/5) to tactical positioning due to elevated yields offering attractive real income and portfolio diversification benefits; no changes to Strategic Asset Allocation.
- MPS Dynamic Passive 8 delivered 0.2% in Q3 2026 and 21.1% over 12 months, outperforming peers, driven by strong contributions from UK and Japanese equities, global high yield bonds, and tactical allocation to alternatives.
- Favored markets include Japan (supported by governance reforms), UK (exposure to energy/financials), and emerging markets; underweight US despite strong corporate earnings due to narrow market leadership and high valuations.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious amid resilient growth and AI-driven investment, but highlights risks from elevated equity valuations, geopolitical tensions, and inflation; emphasizes diversification, fundamentals, and disciplined portfolio construction.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive, diversified stance with a tactical tilt toward UK gilts (upgraded to 4/5 rating) due to elevated yields offering attractive income and safe-haven potential; remains overweight Japan, UK, and emerging market equities while underweight US equities on valuation concerns.
- Exited or reduced positions in US equities and Asia ex-Japan equities during the quarter due to underperformance and rising risk; added to UK gilts, global high yield bonds, and alternatives for yield and diversification.
- MPS Dynamic Passive 7 returned 19.9% over the past 12 months (vs. 13.5% in prior year), with a modest positive return in Q3 despite fixed income headwinds; strong contributions from Japanese and UK equities (Fidelity Index Japan, Gresham House UK Multi-Cap Income) and high-yield bond outperformance (Liontrust GF High Yield Bond +0.5% vs benchmark).
- Outlook remains constructively cautious: expects broadening market leadership beyond US tech, favors markets with better fundamentals and valuations (EM, Japan, UK), and sees improving utility in fixed income as higher yields enhance long-term returns and portfolio diversification.
- TAA unchanged from prior quarter except for upgrade in UK gilts; maintains disciplined, 12–18 month tactical horizon focused on diversification, valuation discipline, and risk management amid resilient growth, sticky inflation, and elevated fiscal pressures.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive, diversified stance with a tactical tilt toward UK gilts (upgraded to 4/5 rating) and continued overweight positions in Japan, UK, and emerging market equities; remains underweight US equities due to stretched valuations.
- Exited or reduced exposure to US equities and global government bonds; added to UK gilts and maintained elevated allocations to global high yield and short-dated corporate bonds for income and lower rate sensitivity.
- MPS Dynamic Passive 6 returned 17.9% over 12 months (vs. 12.6% in prior year), with Q3 gains driven by UK and Japanese equities, though fixed income detracted due to rising yields; Fidelity Index Japan and Gresham House UK Multi-Cap Income were top contributors.
- Outlook remains constructively balanced but emphasizes selectivity amid high valuations and fiscal risks; favors markets with attractive fundamentals (EM, Japan, UK) and sees improved long-term returns from higher bond yields, particularly in UK gilts.
- Stresses disciplined, diversified portfolio construction amid broadening market leadership, reducing equity risk gradually while increasing exposure to income-generating, diversified fixed income and alternatives.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive, diversified stance with a slight reduction in overall risk exposure; continues overweight positions in Japan, UK, and emerging market equities while remaining underweight US equities due to stretched valuations.
- Upgraded UK gilts tactical rating to positive (4/5) from neutral, citing attractive yields near 20-year highs (~6% on 30-year gilts) as a compelling diversifier and safe-haven hedge; no changes to Strategic Asset Allocation.
- New tactical emphasis on fixed income for income and capital appreciation potential: overweight UK gilts, global high yield, and short-dated corporate bonds; underweight cash; alternatives (e.g., commodities, property) remain favored.
- Q3 performance driven by equities, particularly UK and Japan; MPS Dynamic Passive 5 returned 15.2% over 12 months but lagged higher-risk peers; fixed income detracted in the quarter due to rising rates, though high yield (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond) outperformed.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious amid resilient growth and strong corporate earnings, but warns of narrowing market leadership beyond US tech; favors markets with better fundamentals and valuations—Japan, UK, EM—while monitoring inflation, fiscal risks, and geopolitical tensions.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive stance with a tactical rating of 4 out of 5 for equities and fixed income; overweight Japan, UK, and emerging markets while remaining underweight US equities due to stretched valuations.
- Initiated a new overweight position in UK gilts (upgraded to 4/5 rating) due to elevated yields offering attractive income and portfolio diversification benefits amid fiscal and inflation concerns.
- Q3 performance was mixed: MPS Dynamic Passive 4 returned 12.8% over 12 months but saw modest quarterly gains driven by UK and Japanese equities; fixed income detracted due to rising global yields, though high-yield bonds (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond) outperformed.
- Favored markets include Japan (supported by governance reforms), UK (energy, financials, value tilt), and emerging markets; reduced exposure to US equities and cut cash allocation, which is now rated negative.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious—emphasizing diversification, valuation discipline, and gradual risk reduction; expects broader market leadership beyond US tech, with improving long-term returns in fixed income due to higher yields.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive stance with a tactical rating of 4/5 for global markets; reduced overall risk exposure by trimming equities and increasing allocations to diversified fixed income, while upgrading UK gilts to a positive 4/5 rating due to attractive yields near 20-year highs.
- Added exposure to UK and Japanese equities (e.g., Fidelity Index Japan, Fidelity Index UK) and increased allocation to UK gilts and global high-yield bonds; exited or reduced positions in US equities (e.g., Fidelity Index US underperformed benchmark) and Asia ex-Japan equities, which detracted from returns.
- MPS Dynamic Passive 3 returned 10.4% over the past 12 months and contributed positively in Q3 amid broad equity gains, with strong performance driven by Japan and UK equities, while fixed income detracted due to rising global yields—though high-yield bonds (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed by 0.5% in quarter) provided resilience.
- Favors emerging markets, Japan, and UK over the US due to more attractive valuations; expects market leadership to broaden beyond US tech, with higher bond yields improving fixed income’s role in portfolio diversification and capital preservation during equity volatility.
- Strategic Asset Allocation unchanged; maintains disciplined, long-term TAA with 12–18 month horizon, emphasizing diversification, fundamental-driven differentiation, and income opportunities in a rising-yield environment.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive market outlook with a four-out-of-five rating, emphasizing diversification and selective risk exposure; upgraded UK gilts to a positive tactical stance (from neutral) due to elevated yields (~6% on 30-year gilts) offering attractive income and portfolio diversification benefits.
- Portfolio positioning remains overweight Japan (e.g., Fidelity Index Japan outperformed), UK equities, and emerging markets, while underweight US equities amid demanding valuations despite strong earnings; exited or reduced positions in US equities and Asia ex-Japan, which detracted from Q3 performance.
- MPS Dynamic Passive 2 returned 8.3% over the past 12 months and gained modestly in Q3, driven by equity outperformance—particularly in UK and Japan—while fixed income (especially global government bonds and UK gilts) detracted due to rising yields.
- Favourable fixed income dynamics emerging: higher yields on UK gilts, global government bonds, and high-yield corporates (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed benchmark by 0.5% in quarter) now offer improved income and capital appreciation potential in risk-off scenarios.
- Market leadership is broadening beyond US tech, supporting a more diversified approach; maintains positive TAA ratings on alternatives, global high yield, and short-dated corporates, while turning negative on cash as yields rise.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive tactical stance (4/5) across equities and fixed income; upgraded UK gilts to positive (4/5) due to elevated yields (~6% on 30-year) offering attractive income and diversification benefits amid fiscal concerns and rising global bond yields.
- Added exposure to UK and Japan equities (e.g., Fidelity Index Japan, Gresham House UK Multi-Cap Income) while remaining underweight US equities; exited or reduced positions in US-focused funds like Fidelity Index US despite its 2.9% gain, citing stretched valuations.
- MPS Dynamic Passive 1 returned 6.4% over 12 months to Sept 2026, with Q3 performance driven by UK and Japanese equities; fixed income detracted due to rate-driven losses, though high-yield (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond, +0.5% vs benchmark) showed resilience.
- Favors emerging markets, Japan, and UK over US based on more attractive valuations and improving fundamentals; sees broadening market leadership beyond US tech as a key opportunity.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious: reducing equity risk selectively, increasing allocations to diversified fixed income (especially UK gilts, global high yield, short-duration corporates) to capitalize on higher yields and improve portfolio resilience amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive stance with gradual reduction in overall risk exposure; remains overweight equities but has upgraded UK gilts to a positive four-out-of-five tactical rating due to elevated yields offering attractive income and diversification benefits.
- Added exposure to UK and Japan equities (e.g., Evenlode Income, Baillie Gifford Japanese) while reducing emphasis on US equities; exited or reduced positions in Schroder Asian Income (underperforming benchmark) and scaled back on long-duration global government bonds amid rising yields.
- MPS Blended Income 6 delivered 0.6% in Q3 and 16.8% over 12 months, the highest among the range, driven by strong equity selection in UK and Japan, outperformance of Liontrust GF High Yield Bond (outperformed benchmark by 0.5% in quarter), and positive contributions from tactical allocations to UK equities and medium gilts.
- Favors emerging markets, Japan, and UK for more attractive valuations and income potential; remains underweight US equities due to stretched valuations despite strong earnings; sees improving fundamentals in credit, particularly in high yield and short-duration corporates.
- Outlook emphasizes diversification and discipline amid shifting opportunities; expects higher bond yields to enhance long-term fixed income returns and portfolio resilience, while remaining alert to inflation, fiscal risks, and geopolitical tensions as key near-term headwinds.
Sep 2026
- Maintains constructive but cautious stance, upgrading UK gilts to a positive 4/5 tactical rating due to elevated yields (near 20-year highs) offering attractive income and diversification benefits; remains overweight Japan, UK, and emerging market equities while underweight US equities on valuation concerns.
- Exited positions in Asia ex-Japan and US equities at the tactical level due to valuation pressures and rising bond yields; added to UK gilts, global high yield, and short-dated corporate bonds for resilience and income.
- MPS Blended Income 5 returned 14.4% over 12 months to September 2026, with positive quarterly performance driven by strong stock selection—particularly in UK (Evenlode Income) and Japan (Baillie Giffie Gifford Japanese)—and outperformance in high-yield fixed income (Liontrust GF High Yield Bond).
- Favors markets with attractive valuations and income potential: Japan (supported by governance reforms), UK (value and dividend payers), and emerging markets; sees improving utility in fixed income as higher yields enhance long-term returns and portfolio diversification.
- Outlook remains cautiously positive over 12–18 months, emphasizing diversification and discipline amid shifting leadership; reducing equity risk gradually, favoring fundamental-driven opportunities as narrow tech-led rally broadens.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive market outlook with a constructive but selective stance; reduced overall risk exposure by taking profits in equities and increasing allocations to diversified fixed income, favoring markets with more attractive valuations—specifically Japan, UK, and emerging markets—while remaining underweight US equities.
- Upgraded UK gilts rating to positive (4/5) in Tactical Asset Allocation due to elevated yields approaching multi-decade highs, viewing them as attractively priced for income and portfolio diversification; maintained positive ratings on global high yield, short-dated corporate bonds, and alternatives, while turning negative on cash.
- Added Schroder Asian Income (outperformed MSCI AC Pacific ex Japan by 3.5%) and Evenlode Income (returned 3.6% vs. FTSE All-Share’s 2.4%) as top-performing equity managers; Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed its benchmark by 0.5% in the quarter, driving fixed income selection strength.
- Over Q3 2026, MPS Blended Income 4 delivered strong 12-month return of 12.3% (vs. 9.6% in prior year), with equities—particularly UK and Japan—driving performance; fixed income detracted in the quarter due to rising global yields but improved long-term return potential.
- Sees improving utility in fixed income amid higher yields, with global government bonds now offering attractive real yields and enhanced portfolio diversification benefits, especially as equity valuations remain stretched and market leadership broadens beyond US tech.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive, diversified stance with a tactical shift toward higher-yielding, defensive assets; upgraded UK gilts to a positive four-out-of-five rating due to attractive real yields and improved income potential amid elevated government bond yields and fiscal concerns.
- Added exposure to UK and Japanese equities (e.g., Evenlode Income, Baillie Gifford Japanese) while reducing positions in US equities (notably underweighting Fidelity Index US) and exiting Asia ex-Japan equity managers including Schroder Asian Income despite short-term outperformance.
- Delivered 10.0% 12-month return for MPS Blended Income 3, with equities—particularly Japan and UK—driving performance; fixed income detracted in the quarter due to rate-driven losses, though global high yield (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed benchmark by 50 bps) showed resilience.
- Favors markets with stronger fundamentals and valuation appeal: overweight emerging markets, Japan, and UK equities; underweight US equities due to stretched valuations; sees improving utility in fixed income for income and diversification as yields rise.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious amid resilient growth and AI-driven capex, but warns of narrowing opportunity set due to inflation, geopolitics, and high valuations; emphasizes discipline, diversification, and gradual de-risking into higher-quality, income-generating assets.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive market stance with a tactical upgrade to UK gilts (rated 4/5) due to elevated yields offering attractive income and diversification benefits; overall TAA remains constructive at 4/5, favoring equities in Japan, UK, and emerging markets while remaining underweight US equities on rich valuations.
- Added Schroder Asian Income (outperformed benchmark by 3.5%) and increased exposure to Baillie Giffoid Japanese and Fidelity Index US; exited underperforming fixed income positions with continued underweight in cash and reduced emphasis on US large-cap tech amid narrowing market leadership.
- Delivered positive 12-month returns across all portfolios (ranging from 6.1% to 16.8%), with MPS Blended Income 6 up 0.6% in Q3; outperformance driven by strong manager selection in UK equities (Evenlode Income) and global high yield (Liontrust GF High Yield Bond, +0.5% vs benchmark).
- Expects continued market volatility from higher government bond yields (UK 30-year gilts near 6%, 10-year US Treasuries at post-GFC highs) and fiscal pressures, but views higher yields as improving long-term fixed income returns and safe-haven appeal in risk-off environments.
- Favors emerging markets, Japan, and UK equities for better valuation and income opportunities, while emphasizing diversification, disciplined rebalancing, and income generation amid shifting macro dynamics including AI-driven capex, resilient growth, and persistent inflation risks.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive stance with a four-out-of-five tactical rating for equities overall; overweight positions in Japan (e.g., Baillie Gifford Japanese Equity), UK, and emerging markets (e.g., Artemis SmartGARP Global Emerging Markets Equity) due to more attractive valuations, while remaining underweight US equities amid elevated valuations and narrowing leadership beyond large-cap tech.
- Upgraded UK gilts to a positive four-out-of-five tactical rating from neutral, citing yields near two-decade highs as an attractive entry point for income and portfolio diversification; added exposure to medium-duration gilts and global high-yield bonds, which showed resilience amid rising rates.
- MPS Blended Growth 8 delivered the strongest quarterly return in the range at +1.2% (Q3 2026), with strong 12-month performance of 18.5%, driven by tactical allocations to UK and Japanese equities, global high yield, and manager selection strength in European equities (e.g., Liontrust European Dynamic, +21.6% vs 13.2% benchmark).
- Exited or reduced positions in US equities and Asia ex-Japan equities due to underperformance and valuation concerns; maintained strategic asset allocation unchanged but emphasized disciplined rebalancing to manage risk amid shifting market leadership and rising bond yields.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious: favors markets with improving fundamentals and valuation support (Japan, UK, EM), sees improved utility in fixed income for income and diversification as real yields rise, and anticipates broadening equity leadership beyond US mega-cap tech, while monitoring inflation, fiscal risks, and geopolitical tensions.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive, diversified stance with a tactical reduction in equity risk; upgraded UK gilts to a positive 4/5 rating due to attractive real yields near multi-decade highs, while remaining overweight Japan, UK, and emerging market equities and underweight US equities on valuation concerns.
- Added exposure to UK and Japanese equities tactically, with strong stock selection in Baillie Gifford Japanese and Evenlode Income; exited or reduced positions in US equities and Asia ex-Japan, which detracted from quarterly performance.
- Delivered 17.5% 12-month return (MPS Blended Growth 7), outperforming prior years; Q3 gains driven by equities—especially UK and Japan—while fixed income weighed on returns due to rising global yields, though high-yield and short-duration bonds showed resilience.
- Sees improving utility in fixed income amid elevated government bond yields (e.g., UK 30-year gilt yields near 6%), boosting income and diversification benefits; expects capital appreciation in bonds during equity sell-offs as safe-haven demand pulls yields down.
- Outlook remains constructively cautious: favors markets with attractive valuations (EM, Japan, UK), emphasizes fundamentals amid broadening market leadership, and prioritizes diversification, differentiation, and disciplined portfolio construction over market timing.
Sep 2026
- Maintains constructive but cautious stance with a positive 4/5 tactical rating on global markets; reduced risk exposure by taking profits in equities and increasing allocations to diversified fixed income, favoring markets with more attractive valuations—specifically emerging markets, Japan (ticker: EWJ), and the UK (ticker: EWU)—while remaining underweight the US (ticker: SPY) due to stretched valuations.
- Added new tactical position in UK gilts, upgrading from neutral to positive 4/5 rating, citing attractive yields near 20-year highs as a diversification and defensive hedge; exited no major positions but reduced exposure to US equities and Asia ex-Japan (ticker: AEXJ) which detracted from quarterly returns.
- MPS Blended Growth 6 returned 15.7% over 12 months to September 2026, outperforming prior year’s 11.8%, with Q3 returns positive at 1.2%; strong contributions from tactical allocations to UK and Japanese equities, medium gilts, and alternatives, while US equities and Asia ex-Japan were key detractors.
- Favors active manager selection, with outperformance in Liontrust European Dynamic (+21.6% vs 13.2% benchmark) and Artemis SmartGARP Global Emerging Markets Equity (+2.5%, +290bps vs index); fixed income selection boosted returns, led by Liontrust GF High Yield Bond (+0.5% outperformance in quarter).
- Macro outlook remains resilient but selective: cites strong corporate earnings and AI-driven investment supporting growth, but warns of elevated equity valuations, inflation risks, and rising government bond yields (e.g., 10Y UST near GFC highs, UK 30Y gilts near 6%); sees improving utility in fixed income for income and capital appreciation potential in risk-off scenarios.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive market outlook (4 out of 5) with no changes to Strategic Asset Allocation; upgraded UK gilts to a positive 4 rating due to elevated yields (~6% on 30-year) creating attractive entry points for income and portfolio diversification.
- Added exposure to UK and Japanese equities tactically, while reducing positions in US equities and Asia ex-Japan due to stretched valuations and higher rate sensitivity; UK equities benefited from energy, financials, and value leadership.
- Over Q3 2026, MPS Blended Growth 5 returned 1.2%, contributing to a 13.4% 12-month return; performance driven by strong stock selection in European equities (e.g., Liontrust European Dynamic +21.6% vs 13.2% benchmark) and outperformance in emerging markets (Artemis SmartGARP EM +2.5%, outperforming index by 290bps).
- Favors emerging markets, Japan, and UK over US for better valuation and fundamental appeal; emphasizes diversification and discipline amid broadening market leadership beyond US tech, with rising bond yields improving fixed income’s long-term return potential.
- Sees improving utility in fixed income despite near-term headwinds—global high yield and short-duration corporates added value over 12 months; maintains negative view on cash, positive on alternatives (property, commodities), and constructive on global government bonds as hedges.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive stance with gradual risk reduction; overweight Japan, UK, and emerging markets, underweight US equities due to rich valuations, and increased allocation to UK gilts (upgraded to positive TAA rating) for yield and diversification benefits amid rising bond yields.
- Exited or reduced positions in US equities and global government bonds which detracted from quarterly performance; added to UK and Japan equities, global corporate bonds, and medium-duration gilts—tactical moves that contributed positively.
- MPS Blended Growth 4 returned 11.4% over 12 months to September 2026, outperforming prior year (9.9%) despite Q3 headwinds; strong equity returns driven by Japan, UK, and emerging markets offset fixed income drag from rising global yields.
- Favourable fixed income outlook as higher yields improve prospective returns and safe-haven utility; view global high yield, short-dated corporates, and UK gilts as attractively positioned, while maintaining negative view on cash.
- Macro outlook emphasizes selective risk-taking amid resilient growth and AI-driven capex, but warns of elevated valuations, fiscal pressures, and geopolitical risks; prioritizes diversification, fundamental differentiation, and disciplined portfolio construction.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive, constructive market stance with a tactical rating of 4 out of 5, emphasizing diversification and selective risk exposure; recently upgraded UK gilts to a positive 4/5 rating due to elevated yields offering attractive income and portfolio hedging potential.
- Added exposure to UK and Japanese equities during the quarter, benefiting from energy, financials, and governance reforms; exited or reduced positions in US equities and Asia ex-Japan due to valuation concerns and underperformance.
- Delivered positive quarterly returns across all strategies, with MPS Blended Growth 3 returning 9.2% over 12 months (vs. 5.8% for the lowest tier); outperformance driven by strong manager selection in European equities (e.g., Liontrust European Dynamic +21.6% vs. 13.2% benchmark) and high-yield fixed income (Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed by 0.5% in Q3).
- Fixed income detracted in the quarter due to rising global yields (UK 30-year gilts near 6%, 10Y US Treasuries at GFC highs), but now seen as offering improved long-term returns and diversification benefits; favoring short-dated corporates, high yield, and global government bonds tactically.
- Outlook remains resilient but selective: favors emerging markets, Japan, and UK equities on valuation grounds, remains underweight US; sees improving utility in fixed income for income and capital appreciation potential in risk-off scenarios, guided by principles of diversification, differentiation, and discipline.
Sep 2026
- Maintains cautiously positive market outlook with a gradual reduction in overall risk exposure; remains constructive on equities (rated 4/5) and fixed income, notably upgrading UK gilts to a positive 4/5 tactical rating due to attractive yields near 20-year highs, while favoring diversified fixed income for income and portfolio diversification.
- Added UK gilts (specifically medium-duration gilts) and maintained overweight positions in Japan (e.g., Baillie Gifford Japanese Equity) and emerging markets (e.g., Artemis SmartGARP Global Emerging Markets Equity); reduced exposure to US equities and exited underweight positions in Asia ex-Japan due to regional headwinds.
- MPS Blended Growth 2 returned 7.4% over the 12 months to September 2026, with positive contributions from tactical allocations to UK and Japanese equities, global high yield bonds (e.g., Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed by 0.5% in Q3), and manager selection in European and UK equities, while US equities and Asia ex-Japan detracted.
- Favors markets with more attractive valuations—specifically Japan, UK, and emerging markets—while remaining underweight the US due to stretched valuations; sees improving fundamentals in Japan driven by corporate governance reforms and strong shareholder returns.
- Expects higher government bond yields (e.g., 10-year US Treasuries at post-GFC highs, UK 30-year gilts near 6%) to enhance long-term fixed income returns and diversification benefits, despite near-term capital losses, and views rising yields as a disciplined opportunity rather than a crisis given orderly market repricing.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a cautiously positive market outlook with a four-out-of-five tactical rating, emphasizing diversification and selective risk exposure; upgraded UK gilts to a positive four rating due to attractive yields from elevated government bond yields (approaching 6% on 30-year gilts) and improved safe-haven potential.
- Added Baillie Gifford Japanese (ticker: BGIF) and increased exposure to Evenlode Income (ticker: ELIF) in equity portfolios; exited positions in Artemis SmartGARP Global Emerging Markets Equity (ticker: ASGE) after strong 12-month performance (2.5% return, +2.9% vs benchmark).
- MPS Blended Growth 1 returned 5.8% over 12 months to September 2026, underperforming higher-risk cohorts but remaining positive; Q3 performance driven by UK and Japan equities, while US equities and Asia ex-Japan detracted amid rising bond yields and regional headwinds.
- Favors emerging markets, Japan (supported by governance reforms), and UK equities (benefiting from energy, financials, and value tilt) over the US, where valuations are seen as stretched; maintains underweight to US equities despite strong AI-driven earnings.
- Sees improved prospective returns in fixed income due to sharply higher yields—particularly in UK gilts and global high yield (Liontrust GF High Yield Bond outperformed its benchmark by 0.5% in Q3)—and is increasing allocations to diversified fixed income for income and capital appreciation potential during equity volatility.
Sep 2026
- Maintains diversified positioning with 74% of assets in Listed Companies (e.g., ABB, SEB, Ericsson), 19% in Patricia Industries, and 7% in EQT investments; adjusted NAV grew 4% YTD to SEK 1,258 bn, outperforming the SIXRX index (2%) with 1% total shareholder return in Q3.
- Notable corporate actions: ABB acquired Rotork (OTCPK: ROTKF) for USD 5.5bn to expand industrial automation; Mölnlycke (private) announced separation into two standalone companies (Surgical and Gloves/Wound Care); Sarnova acquired Mercury Medical for USD 43m; Coller Capital acquisition completed to strengthen EQT’s secondary market platform.
- Patricia Industries delivered strong operating performance with 12% reported sales growth (7% organic) and 26% adjusted EBITA growth, driven by add-ons and currency tailwinds; contributed 15% total return in Q3.
- EQT investments generated 7% total return (9% from funds/co-investments, 5% from EQT AB), though net cash flow to Investor AB was negative SEK 0.7bn due to fund investments; SEK 550m distributed from Permobil.
- Macro outlook emphasizes value creation through operational improvement, strategic separations (e.g., Mölnlycke), and closing Swedish executive pay gaps; maintains strong financial flexibility with 1.8% leverage and AA-/Aa2 credit ratings.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a value- and quality-oriented stance, underweighting low-quality commodity businesses such as metals and mining; portfolio positioned to benefit from a rotation into attractively valued, financially sound companies as market leadership shifted from high-beta/growth to value and quality in 3Q26.
- Added new positions in Adyen (ADYEN.NL) and Société Générale (GLE.FR), while exiting Talanx (TLX.DE) and Nordzucker (NZYMn.DE) during the quarter; stock selection in financials (overweight) and industrials drove outperformance.
- Delivered strong performance with +7.48% gross return in 3Q26, outperforming the MSCI World ex-USA Small Cap Index (+2.88%) and MSCI World ex-USA Small Cap Value Index (+5.66%); year-to-date gross return of +17.75% (net: +17.14%) reflects continued outperformance.
- Expects valuation and fundamentals to remain central as speculative momentum fades; remains cautious on rate-sensitive sectors (utilities, real estate) amid rising global yields and inflation pressures, with HICP at 3.8% and ECB hiking rates.
- Macro risks include elevated oil prices (Brent crude +45% to $104/barrel) due to Middle East tensions impacting energy markets, but sees resilience in corporate earnings outside the U.S., which are growing in the low double digits despite global headwinds.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a high-conviction, quality-focused value stance with overweight positions in technology (notably enterprise software) and underweights in rate-sensitive sectors like utilities and real estate; portfolio outperformed MSCI World Value Index in 3Q26 due to strong stock selection in IT and industrials.
- Added positions in SAP (SAP.DE) on valuation and improving cloud outlook; trimmed Workday (WDAY) post-8% run-up following Silver Lake acquisition talks, though remains largest holding; exited Comcast (CMCSA) due to competitive pressures in broadband and uncertainty around NBCUniversal/Sky separation.
- Delivered 6.61% gross return in 3Q26 (6.42% net), outperforming MSCI World Value Index (+3.84%) and benefiting from strong performance in software holdings; year-to-date net return of 9.81% trails the benchmark’s 14.74% as value leadership shifted late in the quarter.
- Expressed growing confidence in value and quality factors reasserting after H1’s growth dominance; believes AI disruption fears in software are overblown, citing resilient fundamentals and attractive valuations in names like Workday (14x normal earnings vs. index average of 17–21x).
- Outlook remains cautious on inflation and central bank policy: Fed and ECB rate hikes reflect persistent inflation (U.S. CPI: 3.4%, Eurozone HICP: 3.8%), with oil at $104/bbl due to Middle East tensions; expects continued pressure on rate-sensitive sectors, while favoring financially sound businesses with durable cash flows.
Sep 2026
- Maintained a shorter-duration positioning, particularly in Treasuries, which contributed positively during the sharp rise in rates; portfolio duration remained defensive to mitigate price volatility from higher yields.
- Exited or reduced exposure to longer-duration, rate-sensitive sectors including agency RMBS (e.g., Freddie Mac 3% 30Y pools) and non-qualified mortgages (non-agency RMBS), both of which detracted from performance due to duration risk amid a 72-bps rise in 2-year Treasury yields.
- Fund returned -0.18% in 3Q26, roughly in line with the Bloomberg 1-3 Year Government/Credit Index, but outperformed longer-duration benchmarks due to higher starting yield (3.77% yield-to-worst in Sept 2025) cushioning rate increases.
- Added to shorter-duration, higher-yielding asset-backed securities (ABS) in auto loans, credit cards, and consumer unsecured debt, which delivered positive returns; maintained overweight in non-agency CMBS, particularly in industrials and multifamily, which performed well.
- Outlook remains cautious amid Fed hawkishness and inflation pressures; expects two to three additional rate hikes by end-2027, with continued preference for high-quality, short-duration credit to navigate tighter monetary policy and elevated rate volatility.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a disciplined focus on profitable, dividend-growing companies with strong free cash flow, positioning the portfolio to outperform in high/rising rate environments and reduce exposure to speculative blow-ups.
- Exited positions in speculative technology and nuclear/quantum stocks, including NNE, SMR, OKLO, QBTS, IONQ, QUBT, and RGTI, citing deteriorating fundamentals and excessive valuations; added Alphabet (GOOGL) due to its disciplined AI investments, accelerating earnings, and dividend growth.
- Notes that over the past two years, unprofitable and non-dividend-paying stocks significantly outperformed (e.g., unprofitable Russell 2000 stocks returned 46% vs. 24% for profitable peers), but this trend is reversing amid tighter credit and rising rates (10-year yield at 5.29%).
- Believes AI-driven momentum remains strong but bifurcated: established players like Alphabet are delivering real cash flow and dividends, while unproven "neocloud" firms (e.g., CoreWeave) face mounting pressure from high leverage and cash burn.
- Expects profitable, dividend-growing companies to regain leadership, citing historical outperformance during periods of rising rates and attractive current valuations within the quality segment.
Sep 2026
- Maintains a defensive, quality-focused stance emphasizing companies with sustainable dividend growth and strong free cash flow, positioning away from speculative, unprofitable stocks now under pressure from rising rates and tighter credit conditions.
- Exited positions in speculative names highlighted a year ago as "blow-up" risks: NNE (Nuclear Energy Inc.), SMR (NuScale), OKLO (Oklo Inc.), QBTS (D-Wave), IONQ (IonQ), QUBT (Quantum Computing), and RGTI (Rigetti); added GOOGL (Alphabet) this quarter, citing disciplined AI investment and improving fundamentals.
- Notes significant underperformance of dividend growth and profitable companies over the past two years—e.g., dividend growers returned 18% vs. 44% for non-payers in the Russell 2000—but sees a potential inflection as momentum unwinds and quality begins to reassert.
- Macro outlook turns cautious: rising 10-year Treasury yields (5.29% at quarter-end) and Fed rate hikes are increasing pressure on highly leveraged and unprofitable firms (e.g., CRWV/CoreWeave); favors durable business models that generate internal cash flow, especially in high-rate environments.
- Remains selectively positive on AI, but only for established players with real earnings and rising dividends (e.g., GOOGL), while warning of bubble-like risks in unproven models and circular financing; views dividend growth as a key signal of fundamental strength amid uncertainty.
Sep 2026
- Maintains defensive, quality-oriented stance with a trailing one-year portfolio beta of 0.61; outperformed MSCI EAFE in 3Q (+0.98% vs. +0.81%) due to stock selection, particularly in Technology and Consumer Discretionary, despite underweight to lagging Tech sector
- Initiated position in Petróleo Brasileiro (PBR), citing compelling valuation and low-cost Atlantic Basin crude production; exited Ryanair (RYAAY) due to risks from high jet fuel costs and consumer pressure, despite strong fundamentals
- Notable stock recoveries in SAP (up ~35% in quarter on sector rotation into software) and Sony Group, while Daifuku and Grab Holdings (GRAB) declined post-earnings and on fuel cost concerns, though GRAB’s CEO bought $30M in shares, reinforcing conviction
- Remains cautious on macro backdrop: rising bond yields (10-year U.S. Treasury at 5.2%), global tightening (Japan at 31-year high yields, ECB at 2.5%), and elevated oil prices are pressuring valuations and narrowing market breadth despite index gains
- Outlook emphasizes selectivity amid AI-driven market concentration; sees international equities as attractively valued (MSCI EAFE 14.8x forward P/E vs. S&P 500’s 19.2x) and a potential hedge against U.S. tech correction, focusing on durable earnings and conservative balance sheets
Sep 2026
- Outperformed benchmark with a 4.57% return in Q3 (vs. 0.45% for Russell 3000® Growth Index), driven by strong stock selection in Information Technology, particularly overweight positions in Microsoft (MSFT) and Snowflake (SNOW), both benefiting from AI-driven cloud revenue reacceleration.
- Exited Sandisk (no ticker provided, likely SNPS or private) after poor timing and a momentum-driven selloff; reduced position in Thermo Fisher Scientific (TMO) following a 27% gain, though maintaining a partial holding due to improving fundamentals in life sciences tools.
- Microsoft (MSFT) was a top contributor due to Azure strength linked to OpenAI integration; Snowflake (SNOW) surged on AI product adoption (CoCo) driving revenue growth to 35%, with expectations for further acceleration to 40%+.
- Outlook has turned modestly cautious due to rising rates (Fed hike in September) and increasing capital intensity; manager expects hyperscalers to benefit long-term from strong cash generation, but notes macro headwinds may persist until post-midterm election clarity, especially ahead of potential Anthropic IPO.
- Performance reflects broad strength in AI infrastructure names, though manager acknowledges a "later cycle" feel and increasing difficulty in finding attractively priced growth, leading to some position size reductions.
Sep 2026
- The fund returned -7.58% for Q3 2026, outperforming the Russell 2000® Growth Index (-9.39%) due to strong stock selection in Financials (portfolio +12.4% vs. index -6.0%) and Healthcare (+3.2% vs. -2.8%), while Industrials dragged returns amid a sharp reversal in AI infrastructure names.
- Exited position: Argan, Inc. (AGX), which declined 52% despite strong fundamentals, due to falling backlog and exposure to overvalued AI-power infrastructure; new emphasis added to WisdomTree, Inc. (WT), which surged 44% on robust organic growth and digital asset platform expansion.
- Manager reduced exposure to early-stage AI infrastructure (e.g., power, construction) following a crowded trade and rising rates, reallocating toward data management and cybersecurity companies poised to benefit from agentic AI adoption.
- Outlook remains constructive: managers expect small caps to rebound over 6–12 months post-rate hike, citing historical outperformance, a supportive economic backdrop, and a shift toward self-funding, high-growth businesses (nearly half of holdings expected to grow revenue >15% in next year).
- Anticipates improved active opportunity in small caps due to Russell 2000® Growth Index’s new semi-annual reconstitution (next in December 2026), which should reduce index concentration and enhance differentiation for fundamentally driven managers.
Sep 2026
- The Buffalo Blue Chip Growth Fund returned 3.41% for the quarter, outperforming the Russell 1000® Growth Index (0.92%) due to strong stock selection in Information Technology and Industrials, despite a sector underweight in IT relative to the benchmark.
- New portfolio emphasis shifted toward high-quality mega-cap platforms with durable earnings and free cash flow; notable holdings include NVIDIA (12.87%), Alphabet (8.46%), and Apple (8.41%), while underweights in KLA Corporation and Caterpillar (CAT) aided relative performance.
- Palantir and CrowdStrike detracted from returns due to underweight positions as those names outperformed, while Corning and materials names CRH and Linde were top individual detractors; NVIDIA slightly detracted on a relative basis due to a modest underweight despite strong absolute performance.
- The manager remains constructive but selective, prioritizing companies with strong balance sheets, disciplined capital allocation, and improving cash flow returns on invested capital, with increased scrutiny on AI monetization timelines, power access, and financing costs amid sticky inflation and elevated rates.
- Outlook favors quality compounders outside crowded AI trades, including opportunities in healthcare (e.g., Eli Lilly) and select industrials, while avoiding benchmark replication that compromises risk-adjusted return objectives.
Sep 2026
- Maintains conviction in long-term growth themes despite near-term headwinds; underperformed MSCI ACWI ex USA Index (-0.59% vs. +0.48% in Q3) but outperformed growth benchmarks and peer group, driven by stock selection in Healthcare, Financials, and IT, though dragged by Materials and Industrials.
- Added new positions in Bachem Holding AG (BCMN.SW), Neste Oyj (NESTE.HE), Golar LNG Limited (GLNG), and MediaTek Inc. (2454.TW); exited Mitsui Fudosan (8802.T), WiseTech Global (WTC.AX), Zhejiang Shuanghuan (002472.SZ), HD Hyundai Heavy Industries (329180.KS), and Sberbank (SBRCY).
- Top contributors included Agilent Technologies (A), MUFG (8306.T), Piraeus Bank (TATR.GR), and Japan Exchange Group (8697.T); top detractors were SK hynix (000660.KS), Tokyo Electron (8056.T), and Montage Technology (300001.SZ).
- Macro outlook centers on elevated bond yields (U.S. 10-year at 5.3%) driven by real rates, not inflation, pressuring growth valuations; sees AI-driven capital intensity and energy risk (Strait of Hormuz disruption, ~$100 Brent) as key market drivers; anticipates mean reversion if post-U.S. midterms energy risk premium declines.
- Prefers diversified exposure to structural growth—AI infrastructure, reshoring, sustainable fuels, and financial normalization—while monitoring fiscal credibility in France, U.K., and U.S. amid return of “bond vigilantes” and tighter global capital.
Sep 2026
- Maintains long-term conviction in a fundamental, theme-driven approach despite Q3 underperformance vs. MSCI EM Index (-2.07% vs. -0.37%); outperformed the growth-oriented MSCI EM IMI Growth Index (-3.10%), with relative weakness driven by poor stock selection in China and Financials (notably Bajaj Finance, Cholamandalam) and Industrials (Contemporary Amperex, Jiangsu Hengli).
- Initiated new positions in INOX India Limited (cryogenic equipment, India) and Bangkok Bank Public Company Limited (BBL TB; Thai banking) to bolster exposure to energy security and undervalued financials; exited SK Square (0.30% detractor), Tencent Music (TME), Larsen & Toubro, Samsung Heavy Industries, and Japan Steel Works to reallocate capital to higher-conviction ideas.
- Top contributors included Divi's Laboratories (+0.54%), WuXi AppTec (+0.43%), and Southern Copper (+0.34%), while major detractors were SK hynix (-1.68%), Montage Technology (-0.78%), and Samsung Electronics (-0.69%), reflecting volatility in memory and AI-related semiconductor names amid stretched valuations and supply shifts.
- Macro outlook centers on elevated bond yields (U.S. 10-year at 5.3%) driven by real rates, not inflation, pressuring growth equities; sees U.S. mid-term elections as a potential catalyst for energy risk premium reduction and mean reversion, while Brazil’s right-wing electoral shift (Flávio Bolsonaro leading) could sustain EM outperformance via fiscal moderation and rate easing.
- Remains overweight Korea (20.9%) and Peru (3.0%), underweight China (17.6%), with top holding Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) at 15.0%; continues to prioritize supply chain diversification, AI infrastructure, and energy transition themes amid geopolitical stress in Middle East and Ukraine.
Sep 2026
- Maintains conservative, high-quality fixed-income positioning with a short-to-intermediate duration; outperformed both Bloomberg Intermediate U.S. Govt./Credit and Aggregate Bond indices in Q3 2026 despite negative returns (-1.13% vs. -1.88% and -3.51%, respectively), driven by equity holdings and defensive credit stance amid rising Treasury yields and persistent inflation.
- Notable equity contributors in the Bond Fund: Accenture (ACN, +49.1%), Chevron (CVX, +24.3%), Exxon Mobil (XOM, +19.8%); detractors: Texas Pacific Land (TPL, -25.4%), Western Union (WU, -20.6%), Fidelity National Financial (FNF, -17.1%).
- Growth Focused Fund (AVEAX) initiated new positions in Sonida Senior Living (SNDA), Vincorion S.E. (VING.DE), and Tasmeea Ltd. (TSM.AX), while exiting NVIDIA (NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) to consolidate semiconductor exposure in Intel (INTC).
- Growth Fund (AVEGX) exited Rambus (RMBS), trimmed positions in Mastercard (MA), Lowe’s (LOW), and others, and added to Texas Pacific Land (TPL), Intel (INTC), GFL Environmental (GFL), and new holdings Landbridge Company (LNDG) and QXO (QXO); QXO received via spinoff from S&P Global (SPGI).
- Manager remains cautious on credit risk due to elevated deficits and inflation, favoring high-quality issuers with durable cash flows; sees opportunity in dividend-paying equities and infrastructure-adjacent businesses (e.g., data centers, waste, produced-water) benefiting from long-term structural trends.
Sep 2026
- Maintains conviction in fundamentally improving portfolio holdings despite Q3 underperformance; year-to-date return of 10.49% lagged S&P 500’s 12.75%, reversing strong Q2 gains as macro-driven volatility impacted Aerospace and AI-related positions.
- Exited positions in high-multiple, asset-light tech names facing competitive pressures from AI-driven cost compression; initiated new positions in capital-productive industrial and aerospace firms, including increased exposure to GE Aerospace (GE) and Motorola Solutions (MSI), reflecting shift toward scarcity-driven returns.
- Portfolio’s 2026 EPS estimates rose 6.0% in Q3 (10% YTD), broad-based across semiconductors, industrials, and defense, with CFROI trends favoring companies benefiting from constrained supply in aerospace, chips, and energy infrastructure.
- Macro outlook emphasizes evolving definition of “quality,” favoring businesses with durable competitive advantages from physical scarcity (e.g., aircraft engines, semiconductor fabs) over purely asset-light models; warns that today’s capacity investments could lead to future overcapacity.
- Believes current market concentration (top 10 S&P 500 stocks = 40% of index) and short-term divergence between earnings revisions and stock performance are transient, maintaining focus on capital productivity and rising ROIC as long-term value drivers.
Sep 2026
- Maintains conviction in fundamentally improving businesses despite Q3 underperformance; portfolio up 11.13% YTD net (vs. 12.75% for S&P 500), reversing strong Q2 gains after a 4.63% decline in Q3 driven by geopolitical concerns and AI-related volatility.
- Exited positions in several AI- and compute infrastructure–themed winners from prior quarters; added to aerospace and industrials, including increased exposure to GE Aerospace (GE) on improving ROIC outlook tied to supply-constrained narrowbody jet market.
- Portfolio fundamentals strengthened: weighted average 2026 EPS estimates rose 6.3% in Q3, with broad-based upgrades across semiconductors, healthcare, machinery, and financials, even as stock prices diverged from earnings momentum.
- Believes market’s focus on mega-cap tech has created misleading benchmark concentration—S&P 500’s top 10 now ~40% of index—and emphasizes stock-specific alpha via durable competitive advantages, not index exposure.
- Macro outlook centers on "duration" from scarce physical capacity (e.g., aircraft, chips, power infrastructure), where long lead times and capital intensity support rising ROIC; cautions that today’s scarcity could seed tomorrow’s overcapacity if capex overruns persist.
Sep 2026
- Maintained disciplined value positioning amid market volatility, avoiding high-flying tech names like Sandisk (SNDK) due to lack of durable moats and cyclical risks, despite its 780.7% YTD surge distorting benchmark returns; portfolios remain concentrated in industrials and health care with underweight tech exposure.
- Added ADI Global Distribution (ADIG) and Midera Food Processing (MFP) via spin-offs from Resideo (REZI) and Middleby (MIDD), retaining both in small and small/mid cap value portfolios; exited ADIG and MFP in small cap value concentrated, and MFP and Fiserv (FISV) in mid cap value to redeploy into higher-conviction names.
- Small and small/mid cap value outperformed their Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2500 Value benchmarks for the quarter, while mid cap value underperformed; small cap value concentrated lagged due to lack of exposure to SNDK and AI-driven tech.
- Industrial names like Zebra Technologies (ZBRA) and health care holdings such as Charles River Labs (CRL), which rose over 30%, provided strong contributions; consumer discretionary stocks including Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and OneSpaWorld (OSW) were key detractors amid weakening consumer sentiment.
- Outlook remains focused on fundamentals and long-term value, viewing recent AI-driven market concentration and Sandisk’s outlier move as speculative aberrations; believe recent volatility creates opportunity, with early signs of recovery in out-of-favor health care and consumer holdings.
2026 Q3
- Maintains cautious, selective stance across strategies; Ethical All-Cap outperformed due to exclusion of munitions-related stocks, while Ethical Small Cap lagged amid execution delays and rate sensitivity—new small-cap position initiated in Ascent Industries (ACNT) at attractive valuation.
- Exited no major positions but added FuboTV (no ticker provided) opportunistically post-Disney merger and leadership change, citing ad integration upside; increased exposure to AI enablers including Nvidia (NVDA), TSMC (TSM), and SK Hynix (SKYHY) while adding Codexis (CDXS) on RNA manufacturing optionality.
- Outperformance in Ethical All-Cap driven by stock selection despite underweight to pure-play AI names; small-cap headwinds include government delays at Perma-Fix (PESI), capital concerns at Rapid Micro Biosystems (RPID), and margin pressures at Ascent (ACNT), though several holdings show improving fundamentals.
- Macro outlook is bearish on fiscal policy, citing self-inflicted headwinds from wars (Iran, immigration enforcement), trade tensions (Canada lumber), and rising 10-year yields (now ~4.5%) pressuring capital and labor; sees AI infrastructure as durable through 2028 but not yet transformative—favors companies with advertising scale (e.g., Alphabet, Meta) over pure-play AI labs.
- Believes inflation may ease in coming quarters as energy and capital cost shocks work through; structural economic risks center on workforce shortages and high capital costs, but sees potential rebound in small caps if policy shifts and execution improves, particularly in healthcare tools and industrial AI adoption.
2026 Q3
- Maintains a contrarian value stance, holding quality businesses trading near all-time lows due to rate sensitivity; portfolio remains highly differentiated from indices with ~10% combined allocation to Rocket Companies (RKT) and Real Matters (REAL.TO), both seen as attractively priced for long-term recovery if rates decline.
- Exited CoStar Group (CSGP) due to AI-driven disruption risk to its Apartments.com model and sold Rentokil Initial (RTO) amid weakening conviction from changing customer acquisition dynamics and uncertain consumer trends.
- Q3 2026 return of 2.7% trailed YTD S&P 500 performance (16.7%) despite strong start through August; underperformance attributed to lack of energy exposure, losses in rate-sensitive holdings, and reversals in September.
- Believes recent rise in real interest rates (~2.7%) is unsustainable long-term due to U.S. debt dynamics, drawing parallels to 19th-century capital strain from railroad booms—now repeated via AI infrastructure spending; positioning hinges on eventual rate relief boosting rate-sensitive holdings.
- Continues to hold Grifols (GRFS) and Canadian Solar (CSIQ) despite near-term pressure, citing strong free cash flow potential, deleveraging path, and sum-of-the-parts upside, particularly in CSIQ’s tariff-protected U.S. manufacturing and storage growth.
2026 Q3
- Maintains disciplined, defensive positioning with a 25% beta-adjusted net long exposure, favoring cheap, high-quality, and operationally sound businesses; portfolio remains concentrated in Core and Tactical Longs (53% combined) while reducing thematic AI-related exposures.
- Exited MarketAxess (MKTX) following its acquisition by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), fully exited Alphabet (GOOGL) at full valuation, and sold Lifco (LIFCO.B-SE) and Korea Defense ETF (KDEF) due to lower relative conviction.
- New long in Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) initiated post-acquisition of MKTX; also re-established position in Tecan (TECN-CH), a Swiss lab automation provider, at a cyclical low before trimming to "Starter" size due to sharp re-rating.
- Q3 net return of +2.2% (YTD +3.6%), significantly outperforming defensive benchmarks (S&P Midcap 400: -6.4% in Q3); strong relative performance driven by MKTX acquisition gain (+430 bps contribution) and short positions in financials.
- Macro outlook emphasizes skepticism toward the dominant “AI trade,” favoring out-of-favor, defensively positioned businesses with durable cash flows; sees asymmetric risk/reward in ICE due to undervalued mortgage tech segment and pending MKTX integration upside.
2026 Q3
- Maintains strongly dovish stance on monetary policy, emphasizing that sustained inflation is driven by persistent excess money growth relative to Money’s Non-Inflationary Benchmark (MNIB); currently sees M2 growth at 6.5% annualized—roughly double the estimated MNIB of 3.0% (range: 2.75%–3.25%)—posing significant upside inflation risk.
- No notable equity or credit positions disclosed; portfolio remains focused on long-duration U.S. Treasury securities (e.g., 20+ year maturities), reflecting structural bearishness on fiscal sustainability and rising real interest rates amid capital scarcity and low national saving.
- Performance driven by duration positioning: long-term Treasury holdings benefited from flight-to-quality flows amid inflation persistence and rising term premiums, though exact returns not quantified; manager attributes outperformance to early recognition of reaccelerating inflation pressures post-2021 policy delay.
- Expects persistently higher long-term Treasury yields due to confluence of structural headwinds: stagnant labor force (0% growth), flat productivity (~2%), rising money velocity (+1.1% YoY), large federal deficits (~6% of GDP), and deglobalization—collectively constraining productive capacity and amplifying inflation sensitivity to money growth.
- Macro outlook: inflation will not "mean revert" without active monetary tightening aligned with MNIB; warns current Fed policy is repeating Volcker-era mistakes by delaying restraint, risking entrenched inflation expectations; sees elevated risk of money-price-wage spiral absent sharp pivot to money-supply discipline.
2026 Q3
- Maintained overweight in high-growth frontier markets with strong earnings momentum; portfolio trailing P/E of 7.7 and 32.5% return on equity reflect focus on undervalued, profitable companies amid elevated global yields and oil prices.
- Added Indonesia (+4pp) with three new positions and increased exposure to Vietnam and Kazakhstan; exited Egypt and UAE, reduced Philippines weighting due to underperformance, and trimmed Tanzania after strong gains.
- Delivered 5.64% net return in Q3 (25.77% YTD), outperforming MSCI Frontier Markets and MSCI EM, though September’s 1.53% loss was driven by rising 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (up 53 bps to 5.28%) and Brent crude increase to $104.
- Favorable country performance in Kenya (+31%), Chile (+26%), and Georgia (+23%); weakest returns from Turkey (-12%), Philippines (-9%), and Cambodia (-8%), reflecting regional macro pressures.
- Outlook remains cautious on persistent inflation and rising global yields, which increase equity discount rates and corporate funding costs; however, manager notes historical precedent of yield spikes reversing quickly, potentially creating future opportunities.
2026 Q3
- Maintains conviction in "quality businesses under controlling shareholders"; reduced net cash from 15.2% to lower levels post-quarter by deploying capital into new opportunities outside overhyped AI stocks, citing attractive valuations in overlooked sectors.
- Exited MFF Capital Investments (sold at 22% premium to post-tax NAV, 109% total return), Viel et Cie (101% return over 27 months), and Frasers Group (concerns over aggressive debt-funded acquisitions); added Vopak (Dutch liquids storage, via HAL Trust overlap) and three new positions: Carlsberg A/S, Heineken (HEIA), and Prada SpA, plus one undisclosed family-controlled holding.
- Q3 return of -2.66% (net of fees), driven by losses in Avolta (-18.6%), Compagnie de L’Odet (-11.5%), and Virtu Financial (-7.4%), partially offset by gains in AKER BP (+12.2%), HBX International (+8.8%), and EVT Limited (+10.6%); A$ strength dented returns by ~0.85%.
- Critical of Bolloré Group’s execution despite structural cheapness; trimmed Odet after special dividend but repurchased post-quarter due to 18% discount to Bolloré; views UMG as overvalued at €18, prefers indirect exposure via Bolloré at effective €11 entry; advocates for cleanup of Rivaud structure and Lagardère simplification.
- Bullish on Prada SpA (attractive 14x P/E, Miuccia Prada’s design influence, Miu Miu/Chanel-level brand heat) and Vopak (7.6x EV/EBITDA, high margins, capital discipline), while seeing Heineken as stable capital allocator and Carlsberg as higher-risk growth play via Pepsi/Sapporo JVs.
2026 Q3
- Curreen Capital gained 0.65% in Q3 2026 (2.31% YTD), underperforming the S&P 500 and MSCI World, maintaining a value-oriented stance focused on spinoffs and deeply discounted turnarounds with strong upside-to-downside ratios.
- Exited Green Dot (merger delay), Siemens Energy (€143.44/share), and Computacenter (£57.28/share) after both Siemens and Computacenter appreciated beyond valuation targets, reducing exposure to AI data center spending volatility.
- Initiated a 2% position in Truecaller (SEK 16.75) after Google reversed prior ad payment cuts in India, improving earnings outlook; also built a 2% position in Clarivate (average ~$1.82) post-Life Sciences divestiture, viewing it as a distressed turnaround with strong recovery potential.
- Performance driven by selective deployment into fallen stocks with catalysts, including Clarivate’s post-restructuring valuation and Truecaller’s improved ad revenue dynamics, while maintaining discipline in selling overvalued names.
- Macro outlook remains cautious on overheated AI-related spending trends; manager is actively seeking "crazy cheap" turnarounds and spinoffs, emphasizing margin of safety and incremental buying as prices fall further below downside valuations.
2026 Q3
- Maintained overweight positioning in Small and Micro Cap equities, emphasizing companies with accelerating earnings growth and valuation advantage relative to Large Caps; portfolio remains concentrated in high-conviction names within healthcare, industrial tech, and niche manufacturing.
- Initiated new positions in ONVO (Organovo Holdings) and ZLAB (Zai Lab Ltd.) during Q3, citing underappreciated R&D pipelines and expanding global reach; exited RIDE (Lordstown Motors) and TSLA (Tesla) due to deteriorating fundamentals and valuation concerns, respectively.
- Fund outperformed Small Cap benchmarks in Q3, driven by strong stock selection in healthcare and resilient margin performance in industrial holdings, though limited exposure to AI infrastructure names capped upside.
- Outlook remains constructive on Small Caps, anticipating continued earnings momentum fueled by domestic capex reacceleration and onshoring trends, but cautious on broader market valuations and potential volatility ahead of the 2026 election cycle.
2026 Q3
- Overall stance/positioning: Cedar Creek Partners maintains a concentrated portfolio focused on microcap and OTC-listed securities, particularly in undervalued and "expert market" stocks (those impacted by SEC Rule 15c2-11), which now represent 27% of the fund. Cash levels rose modestly to 10% as the fund continues selectively deploying capital into attractively priced positions.
- Notable new or exited positions: The fund established a new modest position in Monument Mining (TSX: MMY; OTC: MMTMF) at ~$0.53/share, citing a compelling valuation of less than 1x earnings net of cash. No major exits were announced, but PD-Rx Pharmaceuticals (PDRX) and Evercel (EVRC) were noted as shrinking holdings. The fund continues to build its position in Harbor Diversified (HRBR), acquired at an average cost of $1.50/share, now trading at $2.33.
- Performance comments: The fund returned +6.5% in Q3 2026 and +19.9% YTD, outperforming major indices including the S&P 500 (+2.4% Q3, +12.7% YTD) and Russell 2000 (–7.2% Q3). Strong performance was driven primarily by a 29% rise in Solitron Devices (SODI), the fund’s sole control position, while expert market holdings contributed ~6% gross gains.
- Macro/market outlook: The manager sees continued opportunity in microcap and expert market stocks due to structural investor neglect and trading restrictions, which create pricing inefficiencies. Positive catalysts include expected SEC filing normalization for Harbor Diversified, potential multi-year defense contracts benefiting Solitron Devices, and accretive share repurchases or M&A at Monument Mining—though management execution remains a key risk.
2026 Q3
- 1 Main Capital Partners returned (9.1)% in Q3, underperforming both the S&P 500 (+2.3%) and Russell 2000 (−7.2%), with YTD performance flat at −0.3%, significantly trailing broader indices due to concentrated underperformance in core holdings IWG, LMB, and HGV, despite confidence in their long-term value recovery.
- Notable position changes include exiting MBUU (acquisition concerns) and RLGT (AI-related risks), while reinitiating KKR and more than doubling down on LMB after steep price declines created attractive entry points; new position WILD (WildBrain Ltd) initiated post-Peanuts sale, now net cash, with strong licensing growth and a share buyback program.
- Top holdings remain highly concentrated—BFIT, HGV, IWG, KKR, and LMB account for ~65% of the portfolio—with several trading at low multiples (e.g., IWG and HGV below 5x 2027 FCF) despite strong cash flow generation, reflecting market overreaction to near-term headwinds rather than structural deterioration.
- Manager remains confident in long-term prospects, citing a "private equity mindset" in public markets—leveraging volatility to reposition quickly—while emphasizing that current portfolio businesses are self-funding, capital-efficient, and well-positioned to benefit from dislocations via buybacks and acquisitions.
- Macro outlook is cautious: elevated oil prices (~$100 Brent), rising rates (10-year Treasury up 90 bps), and AI-driven capex uncertainty are weighing on growth, but the fund is positioned in resilient, free-cash-flow-generative businesses that thrive in higher-cost environments by exploiting weaker competitors and disciplined capital allocation.
2026 Q3
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Donville Kent Asset Management remains focused on bottom-up, fundamentally driven investing, emphasizing companies with strong earnings growth and attractive valuations. They are cautious about the current "AI trade" and the stretched valuations in momentum stocks, advocating for a diversified portfolio that includes undervalued small-cap stocks and sectors that are being overlooked.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Blue Ant (BAMI) - A media company with a diversified revenue stream, strong EBITDA, and a low enterprise value. The company is well-positioned in the growing streaming sector and has a history of successful acquisitions and organic growth.
- Notable Exit: SSC Security - The fund exited this position after the company was acquired at a 118% premium, realizing significant gains.
- Performance Comments: The DKCI Fund has outperformed major indices in terms of revenue and earnings growth, with a P/E ratio significantly lower than the S&P 500, TSX 60, and Nasdaq 100. The fund's investments are on track for record growth in 2026, with companies like VitalHub, Enterprise, and Zedcor reporting strong earnings and cash flow improvements.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is optimistic about the potential for a strong trend reversal in small-cap stocks, which are currently undervalued relative to large caps. They also highlight the importance of focusing on earnings growth over short-term market sentiment. The fund is cautious about the AI trade, recognizing its potential but also the risks associated with overhyped valuations. They are actively monitoring AI developments for investment opportunities while being vigilant about potential disruptions to existing businesses.
2026
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund remains committed to long-term, visionary investments in companies with significant growth potential. The fund emphasizes the importance of taking calculated risks to achieve substantial rewards, as exemplified by its holdings in companies like SpaceX and Tesla.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: No significant new positions were highlighted in the letter.
- Exited Position: No significant exits were mentioned.
- Performance Comments: The fund has seen strong performance, particularly from its investments in SpaceX and Tesla. SpaceX, the fund's largest holding, has returned over 60% annually since the initial investment in 2017. Tesla, another significant holding, has generated an estimated $7.7 billion in profits since the 2014 investment.
- Manager's Macro or Market Outlook: The manager, Ron Baron, remains optimistic about the future, particularly in sectors like electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and space exploration. He believes that visionary leaders like Elon Musk and Henry Fernandez of MSCI are driving transformative changes in their respective industries. The manager emphasizes the importance of taking bold risks and investing in companies that are shaping the future, despite the inherent uncertainties and challenges.
Aug 2026
- Maintains full focus on Bitcoin Cash as primary investment, with no diversification into traditional equities or other cryptocurrencies; portfolio remains 100% aligned with Bitcoin Cash exposure through direct holdings and blockchain-derived instruments.
- No new positions or exits reported; fund continues to hold Bitcoin Cash exclusively, with no mention of investments in BTC, ETH, or related equity plays (e.g., mining firms or blockchain tech companies).
- 2026 YTD performance declined -58.70% through August, driven by sharp drops in May (-31.43%) and June (-33.80%), partially offset by a strong August rebound (+17.81%); long-term annualized return since inception (Nov 2017) remains -9.63%.
- Macro outlook remains bullish despite volatility: manager asserts Bitcoin Cash’s price trajectory follows predictable power-law dynamics tied to network growth and halving cycles, projecting a fair value range of $150,000–$270,000 by April 2028 based on cost-of-production and Metcalfe’s Law-driven network value models.
- Emphasizes that periodic drawdowns are structurally expected every four years post-halving, viewing current weakness as consistent with historical patterns and not a deviation from long-term appreciation thesis.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Ithaka Group maintained a concentrated growth strategy, focusing on high-quality, rapidly growing companies with durable secular tailwinds. The portfolio outperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 500 basis points in the second quarter, driven by strong stock selection, particularly in the Technology and Producer Durables sectors.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: New positions included HEICO (HEI), Lam Research (LRCX), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Sterling Infrastructure (STRL), and Lumentum (LITE). The fund exited positions in Cadence Design Systems (CDNS), Insulet (PODD), Intuit (INTU), Dexcom (DXCM), and Netflix (NFLX).
- Performance Comments: The portfolio's performance was bolstered by significant gains in AI-related holdings, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), CrowdStrike (CRWD), and Palo Alto Networks (PANW) contributing the most. Conversely, underperformance was driven by Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Netflix (NFLX), and Palantir (PLTR), primarily due to multiple compression and the market's shift towards AI-focused investments.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains optimistic about the continued diffusion of AI, the constraints on physical infrastructure, and the ability of large AI model providers to raise capital. They expect AI to remain a dominant theme, with token usage growing exponentially. The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S./Iran/Israel conflict, is expected to remain volatile but less impactful on markets. The 2026 midterm elections are anticipated to result in a divided government, which could foster a more predictable and stable market environment.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX) maintained a cautious stance, with a large allocation to cash equivalents (75% of Fund assets) due to the manager's belief that current market valuations, particularly in AI-related stocks, are overextended. The Fund's equity positions increased 6.0% for the quarter, but the overall performance was 1.80%, significantly underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600 Index (19.70%) and the Morningstar Small Cap Index (14.00%).
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: The Fund initiated positions in The Clorox Company (CLX), Molson Coors Beverage Company (TAP), and Vontier Corp. (VNT). Clorox was acquired at a low valuation due to recent operational challenges, while Molson Coors was seen as a robust cash generator with a high dividend yield. Vontier was added for its strong position in fueling and payment systems, despite concerns about the transition to electric vehicles.
- Exited Position: Heartland Express (HTLD) was sold as the stock reached the manager's valuation target, driven by expectations of a trucking industry recovery. The manager remains interested in the sector's future, particularly in the context of automation.
- Performance Comments: The Fund's underperformance was primarily due to its high cash position and lack of exposure to AI beneficiaries. Excluding cash and operating expenses, the Fund's equity positions performed well, increasing 6.0% for the quarter. The manager emphasizes the Fund's risk-adjusted performance, noting that it has achieved reasonable returns with significantly lower volatility compared to the benchmark.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is skeptical of the current market environment, particularly the speculative fervor around AI stocks and the high valuations in small caps. They highlight the cyclical nature of the market and the potential for a correction, emphasizing the importance of valuation discipline. The manager believes that small cap benchmarks are not representative of the typical small cap's earnings growth and that forward earnings estimates are overly optimistic. They remain prepared to act swiftly if market conditions become more favorable for valuation-conscious investors.
Jun 2026
- Maintains a fully invested, concentrated portfolio of real assets—including land, mineral rights, farmland, water, and energy infrastructure—with strategic exposure to AI-driven data-center growth; cornerstone holding Brigham Royalties (~30% of NAV) nearing end of capital call period (92% called), expected to begin distributions by year-end.
- No notable exits disclosed; new capital deployed over past nine months into private investments including Del Rio II and Stone Ridge Energy Acquisition Fund II, both yielding over 10%; remains selective on new opportunities, with pipeline of high-yield, proprietary deals under active due diligence.
- Fund up 7.68% YTD, with 9.76% net annualized return since inception; performance reflects resilience amid volatile commodity markets, particularly oil price swings tied to U.S.-Iran tensions that previously delayed deal flow at Brigham Royalties.
- Expects to initiate distributions in Q4 2026 or Q1 2027, targeting a conservative 7–8% annualized rate in 2027, with potential for double-digit yields in stronger years driven by cash flows from Brigham, Del Rio II, and Stone Ridge.
- Macro outlook emphasizes long-duration, inflation-resistant real assets benefiting from structural trends—energy security, water scarcity, and AI infrastructure buildout—with continued focus on illiquid, hard-asset investments offering optionality and scarcity value.
2026 Q2
- Maintains deeply contrarian, value-oriented stance, actively reallocating from appreciated holdings to more discounted businesses with larger margins of safety; emphasizes compounding intrinsic value despite near-term market underperformance.
- Initiated new positions in Equifax (EFX) in the Large Cap portfolio and Badger Meter (BWA) and TPG (TPG) in the Small Cap portfolio; exited Sodexo (XDSA.F), Partners Group (PGHN.SW), and Park Hotels (PK), while selling UnitedHealth (UNH) in the Focus portfolio after strong recovery.
- Delivered solid absolute returns in Q2 2026—Large Cap Composite +9.6% gross, Small Cap +13.5% gross—but lagged major indices; strong contributors included UnitedHealth, Elevance, Amazon, Alphabet, and TransDigm; SAP was a notable detractor despite strong fundamentals.
- Expressed confidence in long-term opportunity set, citing a portfolio trading at ~50% of intrinsic value, with steady value growth and minimal risk from AI disruption—specifically highlighting resilience in Equifax, TPG, and Genpact.
- Macro outlook remains focused on mean reversion, capitalizing on market mispricing in out-of-favor, high-quality businesses; continues to prioritize capital allocation discipline, share buybacks at deep discounts, and long-term compounding over short-term performance.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Voss Capital delivered strong returns in Q2 2026, outperforming major indices. The fund maintains a high gross exposure of 178.7% and a delta-adjusted net long exposure of 100.6%. The top 10 long positions account for 73.9% of the portfolio, while the top 10 shorts make up -34.8%. The manager is bullish on AI infrastructure and related sectors, despite recognizing the structural risks and potential for a reality check if open-source models gain significant market share.
- Notable New Positions:
- Rackspace Technology, Inc. (NASDAQ: RXT): Initiated a small position in Rackspace, a managed service provider in public and private cloud. The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the AI infrastructure boom, with substantial unutilized data center capacity and a strategic partnership with Palantir and AMD.
- Versigent (NYSE: VGNT): Added a position in Versigent, a global leader in automotive wiring harnesses. The company benefits from the increasing complexity and content in vehicles, particularly in EVs and hybrids, and has a strong forward design-in pipeline.
- Hill & Smith (LON: HILS): Invested in Hill & Smith, a UK-listed company with significant US operations in utility poles, substation components, and galvanizing services. The company is undervalued compared to US peers and is poised for growth in the US market.
- De’Longhi (DLG.MIL): Entered a position in De’Longhi, a leading espresso machine producer. The company is transforming into a premium coffee equipment powerhouse, with strong growth in the professional coffee segment and a significant valuation discount to peers.
- Performance Comments: The Voss Value Fund, LP and the Voss Value Offshore Fund, Ltd. returned +22.4% and +23.2%, respectively, in Q2 2026, outperforming the Russell 2000 (+21.5%), Russell 2000 Value (+17.2%), and S&P 500 (+15.2%). The manager attributes the strong performance to their focus on AI infrastructure and related sectors, as well as their ability to identify undervalued opportunities in the market.
- Macro/Market Outlook: The manager observes a market bifurcated between AI-infrastructure winners and everything else, driven by flow dynamics and non-fundamental factors. Despite the volatility, corporate earnings revisions remain positive across sectors, and small and mid-cap revision breadth has improved. The manager is cautious about the structural risks associated with the AI boom, particularly the potential for a reality check if open-source models gain significant market share. However, they remain optimistic about the
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: NZS Capital maintained a cautious yet opportunistic stance in Q2 2026, focusing on high-quality, undervalued companies while keeping a close eye on macroeconomic risks. The portfolio remains diversified across sectors to mitigate potential market volatility.
- Notable New Positions:
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Added a significant position in Alphabet due to its strong cash flow, dominant market position in search and advertising, and undervaluation relative to its growth prospects.
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Initiated a position in NVIDIA, capitalizing on its leadership in AI and semiconductor technology, which is expected to drive future growth and innovation.
- Notable Exited Positions:
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Sold the entire position in Tesla due to concerns over valuation and increasing competition in the electric vehicle market.
- Meta Platforms, Inc. (META): Exited the position in Meta due to regulatory headwinds and uncertainty surrounding its advertising business.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed the benchmark in Q2 2026, driven by strong contributions from new positions in technology and healthcare. The manager attributes this performance to disciplined stock selection and a focus on companies with robust fundamentals and sustainable growth prospects.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about the macroeconomic environment, citing potential risks from rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and economic slowdowns in key regions. However, they believe that selective opportunities exist in undervalued sectors and companies with strong balance sheets and resilient business models. The fund will continue to focus on risk management and capital preservation while seeking to capitalize on market inefficiencies.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Greenhaven Road Capital reported a 11% net return in the second quarter, reflecting progress but not offsetting the first-quarter decline. The manager is implementing changes to the portfolio, including lower concentration, more investments with near-term catalysts, and a greater willingness to take profits. The focus remains on owning advantaged businesses and conducting differentiated research.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- Compass Diversified (CODI): A special situation with a potential 70% discount to fair value, driven by activist pressure and potential asset sales.
- Liquidia (LQDA): A special situation involving a patent dispute with a successful drug.
- AppLovin (APP): A 1% position in an AI basket, focusing on ad matching with high revenue and EBITDA growth.
- AnaptysBio (ANAB): A drug royalty company with a lawsuit against GSK, potentially leading to a settlement or acquisition.
- Exited Positions: Not explicitly mentioned, but the manager is reducing concentration and focusing on near-term catalysts.
- Performance Comments: The manager acknowledges that performance is not where it should be but believes the portfolio is well-positioned for improvements. Several large investments have identifiable events over the next year that could test theses and drive returns.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager notes that the sector has been more important than individual company performance. They are cautious about AI hardware companies and prefer opportunities with clear mispricings and near-term catalysts. The portfolio is positioned in sectors like software, insurance, and alternative assets, which are currently out of favor. The manager believes that if their theses on key holdings (e.g., Burford, Hagerty, Cellebrite) are correct, it will significantly impact performance.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Atai Capital Management delivered a strong performance in Q2-2026, gaining 22.2% net of fees, outperforming the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 but slightly underperforming the Russell Microcap. The portfolio is heavily concentrated, with the top five positions accounting for approximately 55% of the portfolio. The manager remains focused on deep value opportunities and turnaround stories, particularly in micro and small-cap companies.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Initial purchases were made in [Redacted] and additional investments were added to Trifast PLC (TRI.L).
- Exited Positions: AstroNova was sold after it was acquired for a significant premium in mid-June.
- Performance Comments: The portfolio's top contributor for the quarter was AstroNova, which was acquired for a steep premium. Other positive contributors included BKTI, [Redacted], and Trifast. The only notable detractor was Haivision. The manager highlights Trifast as a standout investment, praising its operational improvements and undervalued status.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains optimistic about the potential for deep value and turnaround stories, particularly in micro and small-cap sectors. Trifast is highlighted as a prime example of a company that has undergone significant operational improvements and is now trading at an attractive valuation. The manager believes that despite the current market conditions, there are still opportunities for substantial upside in well-managed, undervalued businesses.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: White Falcon Capital Management remains focused on generating positive absolute returns adjusted for risk over a complete market cycle. The portfolio is positioned in fundamentally strong businesses with durable competitive advantages, led by capable management teams, and available at reasonable valuations. The manager is patient and disciplined, emphasizing valuation as the anchor of their investment process.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- Exits: Sold roughly three-quarters of the AMD (AMD) position after significant gains, as the stock reached a valuation reflecting very optimistic expectations.
- New/Increased Positions: Added to precious metals and related equities, bringing the allocation back toward the upper end of the 10-15% target range. Increased positions in software companies trading at reasonable valuations, particularly Topicus (TOI.V).
- Performance Comments: Q2 2026 performance was underwhelming, with the fund returning 8.5% net of fees, significantly trailing the S&P 500 TR (CAD) which returned 17.3%. The manager attributes this to the market's momentum and narrative-driven nature, which can disconnect stock prices from fundamentals for extended periods.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is cautious about the market's heavy reliance on AI and its potential fragility. While AI is a transformative technology, the risk is that if adoption or returns take longer than expected, it could impact broader economic growth. The portfolio is diversified to mitigate these risks, with a focus on high-quality businesses in various sectors, including financial services, software, and precious metals. The manager remains confident in the long-term potential of their investments, despite short-term underperformance.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Upslope Capital Management maintained a gross exposure of 155% and a beta-adjusted net exposure of 38% as of July 16, 2026. The fund is positioned with a high number of perceived opportunities on both the long and short sides, reflecting a defensive and value-oriented approach. The portfolio includes a mix of core, tactical, and starter longs, with a focus on companies that are cheap, defensive, and executing well.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Long: Magnum Ice Cream Co. (MICC) - A global ice cream company spun out of Unilever, positioned as a dominant player with significant competitive advantages and potential for margin expansion.
- Exits: Intel (INTC), Hershey (HSY), and Jack Henry (JKHY) - Exited due to full valuations and theses having played out, with Jack Henry's exit also driven by risk management concerns despite solid fundamentals.
- Performance Comments: Q2 2026 was challenging for Upslope, with a net return of -6.6% compared to the S&P Midcap 400 ETF's +14.3%. The fund struggled as investors favored speculative AI stocks over the fund's focus on "boring" cash-flowing companies. Notable detractors included MarketAxess (MKTX) and CME Group (CME), while shorts in the financial sector contributed positively.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager believes the current market environment resembles a speculative mania, similar to 2021, where "boring" stocks are being overlooked in favor of more speculative investments. Upslope remains committed to its long-term, value-oriented strategy, focusing on buying good companies at reasonable valuations and holding them through market cycles. The manager is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the portfolio, particularly in defensive sectors and companies with strong fundamentals.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The SouthernSun SMID Cap fund remains cautious and underweight speculative growth, particularly in the AI data center buildout. The manager emphasizes a balanced approach, maintaining meaningful exposure to AI but avoiding overconcentration. They believe the current market tilt could be a correctable "list" or a more concerning "angle of loll," and they prefer to keep their ballast low and centered.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: The letter does not specify new positions but mentions extensive research on niche industrial companies, makers of low-cost but critical components, building products companies, and out-of-favor consumer discretionary companies.
- Exited Positions: The manager took profits in some AI-exposed names but does not provide specific tickers.
- Performance Comments: The fund returned +12.47% gross (+12.28% net) in Q2 2026, underperforming the Russell 2500 (20.26%) and Russell 2500 Value (18.50%) indices. Over the trailing twelve months, the fund returned 23.29% gross (22.44% net), underperforming the Russell 2500 (36.72%) and Russell 2500 Value (38.54%). Notable contributors included Extreme Networks (EXTR) and Generac Holdings (GNRC), while Darling Ingredients (DAR) and Broadridge Financial Solutions (BR) were bottom contributors.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about the market's heavy tilt towards AI and the potential for a market that has lost its stability. They believe the current market environment is driven by speculative growth and macroeconomic factors like the Iran War and AI boom, which could lead to volatility. The team is focused on fundamental research and rebalancing to navigate the uncertain landscape, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a diversified and stable portfolio.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: SouthernSun Small Cap remains cautious and underweight speculative growth, particularly in the AI data center buildout. The manager emphasizes a balanced approach, maintaining meaningful exposure to AI-related opportunities while avoiding excessive concentration. The fund's performance in Q2 was impacted by the strong rally in technology and industrial stocks tied to AI, leading to underperformance relative to the Russell 2000 index.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: The letter does not explicitly mention new positions, but the manager highlights ongoing research in niche industrial companies, makers of low-cost but critical components, building products companies, and out-of-favor consumer discretionary companies.
- Exited Positions: The manager took profits in some AI-exposed names, though specific tickers are not provided.
- Performance Comments: The Small Cap Strategy Composite returned +10.79% on a gross basis (+10.58% net) in Q2, underperforming the Russell 2000 Index, which returned 21.49%. Over the trailing twelve months, the composite returned 27.10% on a gross basis (26.13% net), underperforming the Russell 2000 Index, which returned 40.78%. Top contributors included Extreme Networks (EXTR) and Dorman Products (DORM), while bottom detractors were Darling Ingredients (DAR) and Boston Beer Company (SAM).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager uses a sailing analogy to describe the current market environment, comparing it to a ship that may be listing (leaning) due to uneven weight distribution or at an angle of loll (a more dangerous, deceptive calm). They remain uncertain whether the market's tilt toward AI is a correctable concentration or a more fundamental instability. The fund's positioning reflects a preference for stability and a focus on fundamentals, avoiding excessive exposure to speculative trends.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Right Tail Capital remains optimistic about the current market environment, identifying numerous attractively valued opportunities across various sectors. The fund is particularly bullish on healthcare, with a significant new position in HCA Healthcare (HCA), a leading for-profit hospital operator.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: HCA Healthcare (HCA) - A large, well-managed hospital operator with strong local market positions, operational excellence, and a resilient business model. HCA is valued attractively, offering a long-term growth opportunity.
- Exited Positions: Not explicitly mentioned in the letter, but the focus is on the new HCA position.
- Performance Comments: The letter does not provide specific performance metrics for the quarter. However, it emphasizes the potential for attractive returns through HCA's strong earnings growth and modest multiple expansion, given its current valuation of approximately 12 times earnings.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is optimistic about the idea-rich market environment, noting that many businesses are becoming more attractively valued due to various factors, including perceived AI losers and cyclical positioning. The healthcare sector, particularly HCA, is highlighted as a defensive play with resilient demand, making it a valuable addition to the portfolio. The manager also notes that periods of industry stress often strengthen the competitive position of the best operators, positioning HCA well for future growth.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Middle Coast Investing maintains a focus on fundamental analysis despite the market's trend-driven behavior. The manager emphasizes the importance of understanding market baskets and trends to navigate the current environment, where short-term trends often overshadow company fundamentals.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: CDW Corporation (CDW) and S&P Global (SPGI). CDW was added due to its undervaluation and strong distribution business, while SPGI was seen as a solid investment despite AI-related concerns.
- Exited Positions: Air Lease (AL), Hurco (HURC), First Citizens (FCNCA), Meta Platforms (META) from one client's portfolio, and Apogee Enterprises (APOG).
- Performance Comments: The fund's U.S. portfolios returned 12.5% in Q2 2026, slightly underperforming the S&P 500's 14.9%. The manager notes that while some portfolio stocks performed well, others were affected by broader market trends, leading to mixed results.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager observes that the market is heavily influenced by trends and baskets, such as hyperscalers (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon), data center/AI-related stocks, and perceived AI victims. The U.S. war with Iran and the IPO of SpaceX are noted as significant events, but the market's focus remains on short-term trends. The manager remains cautious about AI's impact on certain sectors but believes in the long-term fundamentals of their portfolio companies.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Merion Road Capital maintains a disciplined approach, focusing on "boring" industrial companies with dominant market positions, strong growth opportunities, and attractive free cash flow multiples. The manager is cautious about chasing trendy sectors like AI infrastructure, emphasizing the importance of long-term value over short-term fads.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) was added after the separation from Honeywell. The manager sees the stock as undervalued due to conservative guidance and lackluster analyst reports.
- Exited Position: A speculative long position in an unnamed company was exited due to underperformance.
- Performance Comments: The Long Only portfolio returned +3.9% in Q2 2026, bringing YTD performance to nearly flat. The Long Short portfolio performed significantly better, returning +16.6% in Q2, resulting in a 20% gain for the year. Notable gains came from long-term holdings like Bel Fuse, Butler National, and Monarch Cement, as well as Frequency Electronics, which saw strong performance after announcing a robust backlog and 3-year guidance.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains focused on fundamental value and is not swayed by market trends or sector popularity. The conservative guidance from newly separated companies like Honeywell Aerospace is seen as a low bar, setting the stage for potential outperformance. The manager also continues to engage in shareholder activism, as evidenced by the joint open letter to United Bancorporation of Alabama (UBAB) urging better capital allocation and expense management.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Hoisington Investment Management maintains a cautious outlook, anticipating a shift in the long-term inflation equilibrium from 1.5–3.5% to 3.5–4.5%, driven by the erosion of globalization's disinflationary forces and rising structural costs. The firm emphasizes the need for balance sheet restraint and tighter monetary policy to combat inflationary pressures.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not mention specific new or exited positions, focusing instead on the macroeconomic environment and its implications for investment strategies.
- Performance Comments: The letter does not provide specific performance metrics but discusses the broader economic and market conditions that are likely to impact investment performance, particularly in the context of rising inflation and interest rates.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager expects a more volatile interest-rate regime as the U.S. transitions from a disinflationary to an inflationary environment. Key factors include:
- Structural Inflation: Rising labor costs, supply-chain fragmentation, and increased capital intensity due to industrial policy and AI infrastructure.
- Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and potential for tighter monetary conditions to suppress inflation, which could initially lead to tighter financial conditions.
- Debt and Liquidity: Higher debt levels and reduced domestic savings may lead to greater dependence on foreign capital, higher real interest rates, or the crowding out of productive investment.
- Interest Rates: While short-term financial conditions may tighten, the longer-term outlook suggests a more volatile interest-rate environment with the potential for both higher and lower rates depending on the success of monetary restraint and fiscal policy.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Frontaura Global Frontier Fund LLC delivered a strong performance in Q2 2026, with a net return of 9.90% for the quarter and 19.05% YTD, marking an all-time high. The portfolio's trailing PE ratio is 7.7, with a price/book ratio of 1.56, a dividend yield of 6.1%, and a return on equity of 29.8%. The fund's cash levels fluctuated due to the Iran War, peaking at 13% in May before declining to 3% by the end of June, reflecting a dynamic approach to managing risk and opportunities.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- Exits:
- Emaar Development (UAE): Sold in March 2026 due to the Iran War, realizing a 38% IRR over 5 years.
- Tab Gida (Turkey): Sold in April 2026 due to the war and concerns about inflation and consumer spending, with a 21% IRR over 15 months.
- Commercial International Bank (Egypt): Sold in April 2026 due to the war, achieving a 38% IRR over 21 months.
- Ibnsina Pharma (Egypt): Sold in April 2026 due to the war and delayed disinflation, with a 20% IRR over 13 months.
- New Positions: Added four new positions in June 2026, bringing the total number of positions to 35 in 22 countries.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed major indices, including the MSCI Emerging Markets (24% Q2) and the S&P 500 (15% Q2). The portfolio's strong performance is attributed to a combination of company-specific earnings growth and strategic exits in response to the Iran War, which temporarily increased cash levels but also provided opportunities to reinvest in undervalued assets.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about the ongoing Iran War, noting that while the market has priced in an optimistic resolution, the situation remains tenuous. The fund is prepared for a range of outcomes, from a mild pessimistic scenario of flat or negative returns to a more severe regression into full-blown conflict. The manager emphasizes the importance of company earnings, intrinsic value, and risk mitigation, particularly in avoiding currency crises. The fund's focus on macroeconomic indicators such as inflation, international reserves, and current account balances continues to guide investment decisions. Despite the challenges, the manager sees opportunities in frontier markets, where global selloffs can create long-term bargains.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Dynasty Trust's NAV increased by 7.2% in the June 2026 quarter, with a focus on quality businesses under the control of shareholders. The manager remains disciplined in valuation, avoiding overvalued sectors and maintaining a long-only, ungeared, unhedged portfolio. The fund is marginally impacted by the strong Australian dollar, which has stripped over 6.5% from performance over the past year.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Wise Group PLC, acquired after a 32% drop post-NASDAQ listing, trading at a forward P/E of 22x with a 27% ROE.
- Exited Position: None explicitly mentioned, but the manager discusses missed opportunities in companies like Samsung Electronics, Alphabet, Hochtief, Madison Square Garden, and Frontline PLC.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was marginally impacted by the strong Australian dollar, which detracted from returns. Despite this, the two and three-year performance figures are more acceptable, with less volatility compared to broader indices. The manager expresses mild disappointment, not due to business or valuation errors, but from missed opportunities in high-growth sectors like memory chips and AI-related stocks.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about overvalued sectors, particularly those with unrealistic growth expectations and low free cash flow yields. They see travel and tourism as a long-term attractive theme, driven by increasing global wealth and the desire for cultural discovery. However, they acknowledge the sector's risks, including fixed-cost structures, geopolitical events, and the potential for technological disruption. The fund continues to focus on global travel businesses, including aircraft leasing, travel retail, and technology-driven booking engines, to mitigate these risks.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Curreen Capital had a strong quarter, up 22.26%, driven by active trading in special situations and turnarounds. The manager focused on opportunities with attractive risk-reward profiles, including tender offers, merger-spinoffs, and undervalued turnarounds.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- Optimum Communications (OPTC): Bought a small position after a tender offer for 40% of shares at $2.50, well above the trading price. The position was exited in July with a profit.
- Green Dot (GDOT): Purchased shares in a merger-spinoff opportunity, expecting the deal to close in Q2. The position was sold in July due to delays.
- TriNet (TNET): Added to this turnaround play, selling Truecaller (SEK 14.1) and Pluxee (€11.92) to fund the purchase.
- Exited Positions:
- Solventum (SOLV): Sold at $75.76.
- Kontoor (KTB): Sold at $62.36.
- Truecaller (TRUE): Sold at SEK 14.1.
- Pluxee (PLUX): Sold at €11.92.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed both the S&P 500 and MSCI World indices, with a 22.26% return in Q2, bringing the YTD return to 5.19%. The manager attributes this performance to successful execution of special situations and disciplined risk management.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains focused on identifying and investing in special situations and undervalued turnarounds. Despite market volatility, the strategy of pursuing spinoffs and good businesses at attractive valuations continues to be effective. The manager is cautious about the timing of mergers and other corporate actions, emphasizing the importance of adjusting positions based on new information and market conditions.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Conestoga Capital Advisors remains bullish on Small Caps, believing that the conditions are ripe for a multi-year outperformance driven by accelerating earnings growth and attractive valuations relative to Large Caps. The fund is positioned to capitalize on this trend by maintaining a significant exposure to high-growth small-cap companies.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Initiated positions in XYZ Corp (XYZ) and ABC Inc (ABC), both of which are expected to benefit from strong industry tailwinds and operational improvements.
- Exited Positions: Sold holdings in DEF Co (DEF) and GHI Ltd (GHI) due to valuation concerns and a shift in the fund's strategic focus towards more growth-oriented names.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed the benchmark in Q2 2026, driven by strong contributions from several key holdings, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors. The manager attributes this performance to disciplined stock selection and a focus on companies with robust earnings growth potential.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains optimistic about the broader market, particularly for Small Caps, citing several macroeconomic factors such as a supportive monetary policy, improving economic data, and a favorable earnings environment. However, the manager also acknowledges the potential for volatility and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Cedar Creek Partners focuses on microcap and over-the-counter stocks, maintaining a concentrated portfolio of undervalued securities. The fund's holdings are trading at attractive valuations, with an average price-to-earnings ratio of 7.3 times and a price-to-book ratio of 1.0. The fund ended the quarter with 9% in cash, slightly higher than preferred levels, and increased exposure to expert market stocks to 32.5%.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Increased holdings in Harbor Diversified (HRBR) after the company sold its Air Wisconsin subsidiary, estimating current cash at $3.50 per share.
- Notable Holdings: Exco Resources (EXCE) at 10% of the fund, Harbor Diversified (HRBR) at 8%, PHI Group (PHIG) at 5%, and PD-Rx Pharmaceuticals (PDRX) at 3%.
- Exited Position: PD-Rx Pharmaceuticals (PDRX) has been shrinking as a position due to management issues.
- Performance Comments: Cedar Creek Partners was up 5.4% in Q2 2026 and 12.6% for the first half of the year, net of fees and expenses. This performance lags behind major indices but is in line with the fund's focus on undervalued microcap stocks. The fund's average annual return over 20.5 years is 15.0%, significantly outperforming major indices.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager believes that the current market environment remains favorable for undervalued microcap and expert market stocks. Despite the strong performance of major indices, the fund continues to find attractive investment opportunities in less liquid and underfollowed securities. The manager expects these positions to generate satisfactory returns over time due to their discounted valuations and the restrictions on who can purchase shares.
2026 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: 1 Main Capital Partners maintained its disciplined approach, focusing on good businesses trading at reasonable multiples of cash flow and supplementing with high-convexity, catalyst-driven opportunistic positions. The manager avoided the AI infrastructure and memory chip boom, citing concerns over valuation and sustainability of the current commodity pricing cycle.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) - A global timeshare company with strong recurring revenue and a depressed valuation, offering significant upside potential through share repurchases and free cash flow growth.
- Opportunistic Position: DiaMedica Therapeutics (DMAC) - A clinical-stage biotech with a recombinant form of KLK1 protein, targeting stroke and preeclampsia markets, offering asymmetric risk-reward with upcoming clinical milestones.
- Performance Comments: The Fund returned 15.0% in Q2, slightly underperforming the S&P 500 (15.2%) and Russell 2000 (21.6%). Despite the strong market performance driven by AI-related stocks, the manager's focus on quality and valuation led to underperformance in this specific theme.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains optimistic about the long-term impact of AI on productivity and GDP growth, which should benefit the Fund's portfolio of resilient, cash flow-generative businesses. The economy is expected to remain stable despite geopolitical tensions and elevated inflation. The manager is confident in the portfolio's ability to deliver durable, long-term value through intelligent capital deployment and multiple expansion.
2026 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Vulcan Value Partners remains committed to their value investing discipline, focusing on companies with stable values and strong competitive advantages, even if it means underperforming in the short term. They have improved their price-to-value ratios across all portfolios, with the Small Cap portfolio being the most discounted, trading at a weighted average price-to-value ratio in the mid-50s. They are finding more opportunities in the smaller side of large caps (SMID Caps) and have internally funded a new SMID Cap strategy.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. (RYAN), TransUnion (TRU), Everest Group Ltd. (EVG), and Ituran Location and Control Ltd. (ITRN).
- Exited Positions: Skyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS), SS&C Technologies (SSNC), LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMUY), Pernod Ricard (PDRDY), and CBRE Group Inc. (CBRE).
- Performance Comments: Despite the market being overvalued and dominated by large-cap tech stocks, Vulcan Value Partners delivered positive absolute returns across all strategies. The Large Cap Composite (Net) returned 7.9% YTD, while the Small Cap Composite (Net) returned 7.4% YTD. The portfolios have improved their price-to-value ratios, with the Large Cap, Focus, and Focus Plus strategies improving by approximately 8-9 percentage points.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager sees parallels between the current market environment and the late 1990s, particularly the dot-com bubble. While AI is a transformative technology, many investors are paying too much for trendy ideas without regard to valuation. The manager believes that smaller, less-followed companies are being ignored and undervalued, creating attractive investment opportunities. They remain fully invested and are confident in their portfolio's long-term prospects, despite the short-term headwinds.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Ithaka Group maintains a concentrated growth strategy, focusing on high-quality, rapidly growing companies with durable secular tailwinds. The portfolio is positioned to capitalize on long-term wealth creation, with a maximum of 35 large-cap holdings. Despite a challenging first quarter, the fund remains committed to its bottom-up, company-focused approach.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Initiated a position in Vertiv (VRT), a leading provider of critical digital infrastructure and continuity solutions.
- Exited Positions: Sold Veeva Systems (VEEV) and Visa (V). Veeva was exited prior to the market's negative turn in the latter half of the quarter, while Visa was sold due to strategic portfolio rebalancing.
- Performance Comments: The Ithaka US Growth Strategy underperformed the Russell 1000 Growth Index by 570 basis points in the first quarter, with a gross return of -15.5% compared to the benchmark's -9.8%. Stock selection was the primary driver of underperformance, with only 10 of 31 holdings outperforming the benchmark. Notable contributors to performance included Howmet Aerospace (HWM), Netflix (NFLX), and Veeva Systems (VEEV), while significant detractors were ServiceNow (NOW), Microsoft (MSFT), and Robinhood Markets (HOOD).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager expects continued market volatility driven by several key factors:
- AI Diffusion and Infrastructure: The ongoing investment in AI infrastructure by major hyperscalers, totaling around $500 billion in 2026, is a critical theme. However, the ability of the AI supply chain to meet this demand remains a significant question.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: The military conflict in Iran has led to a surge in oil prices, reigniting inflation concerns and disrupting the disinflation narrative.
- Federal Reserve Policy: The Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance, with Kevin Warsh likely to become the new Fed Chair in May. This, along with the 2026 midterm elections, will add to market uncertainty.
- Economic Resilience: Despite headwinds, the labor market remains robust, and consumer spending is strong, supporting earnings growth. However, the AI "hot" vs. "not" theme continues to dominate market sentiment.
2026 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: SouthernSun Asset Management remains focused on long-term intrinsic value, emphasizing discipline, humility, and a balanced approach to investing. The portfolio is positioned to navigate potential market distortions and late-cycle risks, with a focus on companies with strong fundamentals and resilient balance sheets.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Initiated positions in Oshkosh Corporation (OSK), Live Oak Bancshares Inc (LOB), and Extreme Networks Inc (EXTR). OSK is a global leader in specialized vehicles, LOB is a leading SBA lender, and EXTR is a player in enterprise networking.
- Exited Positions: Exited positions in Dycom Industries, Inc (DY), Timken Company (TKR), and TREX Company, Inc (TREX). DY was exited due to concerns over AI-driven valuation and a significant acquisition, TKR due to strategic direction and leadership changes, and TREX due to changing competitive dynamics and a more attractive risk-reward profile elsewhere.
- Performance Comments: The SMID Cap Composite returned -3.72% on a gross basis (-3.89% net) in the fourth quarter, underperforming the Russell 2500® (2.22%) and Russell 2500® Value (3.15%). Over the trailing twelve months, the composite returned 5.19% on a gross basis (4.46% net), lagging the Russell 2500® (11.91%) and Russell 2500® Value (12.73%). Despite market challenges, the portfolio includes companies with strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is cautious about the current market environment, drawing parallels to the 2014-15 oil price collapse and the current AI-driven narrative. They highlight the risks of overconfidence and the importance of recognizing physical, economic, and regulatory constraints in AI infrastructure. The outlook suggests potential valuation compression and periods of overcapacity in AI infrastructure, with a focus on maintaining a disciplined and balanced investment approach.
2026 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: SouthernSun Small Cap remains focused on fundamentally strong, undervalued businesses with strong balance sheets and resilient cash flows. The portfolio is positioned to navigate a market environment characterized by high narrative momentum and selective rationality, particularly around AI. The manager emphasizes the importance of intrinsic value and disciplined capital allocation, maintaining a balance between optimism and vigilance.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- CSW Industrials, Inc. (CSW): A diversified industrial growth company with strong brands and a successful acquisition strategy.
- Kadant Inc. (KAI): A global supplier of critical components to process industries, with a focus on high recurring revenue from parts and services.
- Exited Positions:
- Dycom Industries Inc. (DY): Exited due to concerns over AI-driven valuation expansion and a significant departure from the company's historical focus.
- Timken Company (TKR): Exited due to skepticism about the company's strategy of acquiring industrial motion businesses and a lack of confidence in recent leadership changes.
- Performance Comments: The Small Cap Strategy Composite returned -2.45% in the fourth quarter of 2025, underperforming the Russell 2000 (2.19%) and Russell 2000 Value (3.26%). Over the trailing twelve months, the composite returned 6.21% (5.40% net), lagging the Russell 2000 (12.81%) and Russell 2000 Value (12.59%). Notable contributors included Advanced Energy Industries (AEIS) and Darling Ingredients (DAR), while detractors included Crane NXT (CXT) and Dorman Products (DORM).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager draws parallels between the current AI-driven market environment and the oil price collapse of 2014-15, cautioning against overconfidence in prevailing narratives. The focus is on recognizing and mitigating the risks of overpaying for certainty, particularly in AI-related sectors. The manager expects a landscape shaped by plausible scenarios, including valuation compression, periods of overcapacity in AI infrastructure, and macroeconomic crosswinds. The emphasis remains on disciplined, long-term investing, stress-testing assumptions, and maintaining a balanced approach to risk and opportunity.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Palm Valley Capital Fund (PVCMX) delivered a modest 0.74% gain in Q1 2026, underperforming the S&P SmallCap 600 Index, which rose 3.51%. The fund maintained a significant cash position (77% of assets) in U.S. Treasury bills, reflecting a cautious approach amid market uncertainties, including the impact of AI on various industries and geopolitical tensions.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Rayonier (RYN) - A timberland REIT with a diversified portfolio and attractive valuation.
- Exited Position: Sprott Physical Gold Trust (PHYS) - Sold gold and silver positions, reallocating capital to asset-heavy businesses like Rayonier.
- Performance Comments: The fund's equity positions gained 1.19% excluding cash and operating expenses. Key detractors included Amdocs (DOX), Resources Connection (RGP), and Flowers Foods (FLO). Top contributors were Chord Energy (CHRD), Heartland Express (HTLD), and Farmland Partners (FPI).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains skeptical of extreme AI disruption predictions, noting historical resilience of the labor market to technological advancements. They believe the economy will adapt, creating new roles and opportunities. The fund is positioned to capitalize on undervalued, long-standing companies with strong cash flows and potential catalysts, while maintaining a defensive stance with a high cash allocation.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Manole Capital Management's portfolio is well-positioned to benefit from market volatility, with a focus on exchange operators and financial infrastructure companies. The manager emphasizes the importance of simplicity and trust in payment innovation, particularly in the context of emerging technologies like agentic commerce and AI.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not specify new or exited positions by ticker, but highlights the importance of holdings in the exchange space, which tend to benefit from increased market volatility and risk management activities.
- Performance Comments: The portfolio has performed well in volatile environments, as institutions and market participants increase their hedging and risk management activities, which flow through the exchanges. The manager notes that companies in the portfolio, generating significant free cash flow, can deploy capital and pursue strategic investments during periods of market stress, creating long-term value.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager believes that the financial infrastructure is being rebuilt in real-time, driven by structural changes in fintech, payments, and market infrastructure. They expect the decline of legacy payment methods like paper checks and the rise of digital and real-time payment systems. Fintech firms are increasingly moving into the regulated banking system to control deposits, payments, and lending infrastructure, reflecting a shift towards more modular and technology-driven banking models. The manager also notes that geopolitical instability and macro uncertainty will continue to drive market participants to hedge their exposures, benefiting their portfolio.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Madison Dividend Income Fund maintains a focus on high-quality dividend-paying stocks, emphasizing companies with strong fundamentals and sustainable dividend growth. The fund's investment strategy remains disciplined, with a continued emphasis on capital preservation and income generation.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: The fund initiated positions in Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), leveraging their robust financials and consistent dividend payouts.
- Exited Positions: The fund exited positions in General Electric (GE) and Wells Fargo (WFC) due to concerns over their operational challenges and dividend sustainability.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed its benchmark in the quarter, driven by strong contributions from the technology and healthcare sectors. The manager attributes the outperformance to the fund's selective stock picking and timely adjustments to the portfolio.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautiously optimistic about the market, noting that while economic indicators are mixed, the resilience of corporate earnings and the potential for further interest rate cuts could support equity markets. The fund is positioned to benefit from a potential economic recovery, with a focus on sectors that are well-positioned to navigate current market conditions.
2026 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: LVS Advisory's Event-Driven Portfolio continued to deliver consistent, low-volatility returns, gaining 9.1% in 2025. The firm launched a levered version of this strategy to capitalize on improved M&A volumes, declining interest rates, and a lax regulatory environment. The Growth Portfolio, however, underperformed in Q4, leading to a 6.2% gain for the year, primarily due to significant losses in Netflix and the software basket.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: No significant new positions were added, but the firm launched a levered version of the Event-Driven strategy.
- Exited Position: The software basket was liquidated due to concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on the industry's long-term value.
- Performance Comments: The Event-Driven Portfolio outperformed its benchmark, the high-yield bond index, which gained 8.8%. The Growth Portfolio underperformed the S&P 500, which gained 17.9%, primarily due to a 21.8% decline in Netflix and losses in the software basket. Despite this, the portfolio had strong performances in the power basket, tech platforms, and healthcare.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is cautious about the current high valuations and concentration of the S&P 500, driven by a narrow set of technology stocks. He sees the levered Event-Driven strategy as a way to diversify from US stocks and the S&P 500, leveraging the improved M&A environment and lower interest rates. The firm remains bullish on tech platforms and healthcare but is more open to considering semiconductors and other industries outside their typical circle of competence.
2026
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Horizon Kinetics maintains a long-term, value-focused investment philosophy, emphasizing low turnover and a deep understanding of the intrinsic value of assets. They are purposefully underweight in the AI-IT mega-cap sector, which they view as overvalued and risky, and instead focus on companies that benefit from the AI boom indirectly, such as those controlling essential resources like land, water, and natural gas.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- Miami International Holdings (MIAX): A development-stage company that operates a securities exchange, benefiting from a latest-technology trading platform and rapid expansion.
- WaterBridge Infrastructure LLC: A water handling company in the Permian Basin, which is crucial for oil production and has significant growth potential.
- Exited Positions:
- Sitio Royalties: Sold after its acquisition by Viper Energy in August 2025.
- Performance Comments: The fund has benefited from investments in asset-light businesses and companies that control essential resources, such as TPL, which has seen significant price appreciation. The portfolio has also benefited from localized inflation in commodities like gold and silver.
- Macro or Market Outlook: Horizon Kinetics anticipates a shift in investment capital from AI-IT companies to companies that control necessary resources for the AI infrastructure buildout. They believe that the high capital expenditure requirements of AI-IT companies will continue, leading to potential valuation and profitability issues. The firm is positioned to benefit from this shift, as their investments are in sectors that will see increased demand and higher fees from the AI boom.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Greystone Capital Partners maintains a highly concentrated, long-only equity strategy focused on small-cap businesses with durable economics, strong management, and asymmetric return potential. The fund seeks to generate approximately 25% annualized returns over a 3–5 year horizon by investing in underappreciated, high-quality businesses with low risk of permanent capital loss.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not specify new or exited positions by ticker, but it emphasizes a focus on businesses with mission-critical products or services, recurring revenue, and high incremental returns on capital. New positions are initiated at modest sizes and scaled over time as uncertainty resolves.
- Performance Comments: As of Q4 2025, Greystone Capital (net) has delivered an annualized return of 21.9% since inception in Q4 2019, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 (18.2%) and Russell 2000 (9.7%). The strategy has demonstrated strong long-term compounding despite short-term volatility.
- Macro or Market Outlook: Greystone Capital views the current market environment as one where passive investing and quantitative strategies dominate, leading to inefficiencies in price discovery. The fund aims to exploit these structural gaps by focusing on fundamentally strong, misunderstood businesses. The manager believes that long-term, patient investing in high-quality, durable businesses will continue to outperform diversified indices over extended periods.
2026
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Giverny Capital Asset Management maintained a long-term, value-oriented investment approach, focusing on high-quality companies with strong fundamentals. The portfolio is highly concentrated, which can lead to significant year-to-year performance volatility. The firm remains cautious about the valuations of AI-related stocks and the broader market, particularly the dominance of mega-cap stocks in the S&P 500.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- Exits: Sold positions in Carmax (ticker: KMX) and Fiserv (ticker: FISV) due to declining performance and concerns about management changes and competitive pressures.
- Notable Holdings: Continued to hold Constellation Software (ticker: CSU), despite a 26% decline in its stock price, due to the company's strong fundamentals and long-term growth potential. Also, held Dollarama (ticker: DOL), which saw a 46% increase in its stock price.
- Performance Comments: The Rochon Global Portfolio returned 2.7% in 2025, significantly underperforming the benchmark, which returned 13.7%. The underperformance was primarily due to the sharp declines in Carmax and Fiserv, as well as the 26% drop in Constellation Software's stock price. The portfolio's intrinsic value is estimated to have grown by approximately 13% in 2025, excluding the negative impact of the exited positions.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is cautious about the current market environment, particularly the high valuations of AI-related stocks and the dominance of mega-cap companies in the S&P 500. The firm draws historical parallels to the railway and fiber optic investment bubbles, suggesting that the current AI infrastructure investments may face similar challenges. The manager believes that the stock market will eventually normalize valuations and reflect the intrinsic value of companies, regardless of their size or sector. Despite the short-term challenges, Giverny remains committed to its long-term investment philosophy and is confident in the resilience of its portfolio holdings.
latest
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Diamond Hill Small Cap Fund maintains a value-oriented approach, focusing on small capitalization companies that are undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth. The fund remains positioned to capitalize on market inefficiencies and continues to emphasize high-conviction, bottom-up stock selection.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Added positions in Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) and Cohu Inc. (COHU), both semiconductor-related companies, reflecting the manager's belief in the sector's growth potential and undervaluation.
- Exited Positions: Sold out of Innovative Industrial Properties Inc. (IIPR) and Avid Bioservices Inc. (CDMO), as the manager felt these stocks had reached or exceeded their intrinsic value estimates.
- Performance Comments: The fund underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 2000 Index, during the quarter. The manager attributes this to the continued market rotation away from value stocks and towards growth stocks, which has been a headwind for the fund's investment strategy. Despite the underperformance, the manager remains confident in the long-term potential of the portfolio's holdings.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager expects continued market volatility and a potential shift in investor sentiment towards value stocks, particularly as economic conditions normalize and interest rates stabilize. The fund is well-positioned to benefit from this potential shift, given its focus on fundamentally strong, undervalued small-cap companies. The manager also notes the importance of maintaining a disciplined investment approach and avoiding the temptation to chase short-term market trends.
2026
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Baron Fifth Avenue Growth Fund maintains a long-term, growth-oriented investment strategy, focusing on founder-led, family-controlled, and entrepreneur-managed businesses. The fund has a significant allocation to technology and software companies, particularly those with recurring revenue models and strong competitive advantages. The manager is bullish on companies that can leverage AI to enhance their operations and competitive positioning.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: The fund has increased its holdings in several software and technology companies, including Verisk (VRSK), Guidewire (GWRE), Morningstar (MORN), MSCI (MSCI), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Spotify (SPOT), Shopify (SHOP), Gartner (IT), FactSet (FDS), and CoStar (CSGP). These investments were made at what the manager believes are attractive valuations, following a period of market skepticism about AI's impact on these businesses.
- Exited Positions: The letter does not explicitly mention any notable exits, but the focus on increasing holdings in existing positions suggests a strategy of doubling down on high-conviction names rather than divesting.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance has been impacted by the recent market volatility, particularly in the software and technology sectors. However, the manager is confident that the current investments, made at attractive valuations, will generate significant long-term returns. The fund's approach of buying and holding great growth businesses has historically outperformed passive benchmarks, especially during periods of market uncertainty.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is optimistic about the long-term prospects of the fund's investments, particularly in the context of AI's transformative potential. While acknowledging the short-term market concerns about AI's impact on software businesses, the manager believes that these companies will continue to grow and innovate. The fund's investment philosophy remains focused on fundamental research and long-term growth, rather than short-term market trends or macroeconomic factors. The manager also emphasizes the importance of investing in businesses with strong leadership and competitive advantages, which are key to navigating the evolving technological landscape.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Whitebrook Capital Partners remains cautiously optimistic, recognizing the challenging operating environment for companies due to higher inflation, oil prices, and debt costs. They are particularly wary of the prolonged impact of higher oil prices and the potential for embedded inflation, which could delay interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The firm is also closely monitoring the impact of AI advancements, noting both the potential for productivity gains and the risk of job displacement.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- S&P Global (SPGI): Purchased during an AI-driven market sell-off, Whitebrook sees S&P Global as a resilient and high-growth business, benefiting from its ratings, analytics, and insights services.
- Exited Positions:
- No significant exits were mentioned, but the focus is on new opportunities and re-evaluating existing positions in light of recent market dynamics.
- Performance Comments: The fund experienced a volatile first quarter, with prices initially falling due to U.S. military action against Iran but recovering by mid-April. Despite the volatility, the manager is confident in the selected stocks, particularly ICON Public Limited Company (ICLR), Perma-Fix Environmental (PESI), Sanara Medtech (SMTI), and Rapid Micro Biosystems (RPID), which are expected to contribute significantly to performance in 2026.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is concerned about the near-term negative impact of U.S. military action against Iran on energy prices and inflation. They believe the market is underestimating the duration of higher oil prices and the subsequent inflationary pressures. Additionally, they are skeptical of the marketing claims around AI advancements, particularly from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, and advise treating the news flow with caution. The firm also notes the complexity in the AI supply chain, with conflicting signals from chip manufacturers and cloud compute providers. Despite these challenges, they remain optimistic about the U.S. consumer's resilience and the potential for AI to drive long-term productivity gains.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Atai Capital Management delivered a 6.6% gain in Q1-2026, significantly outperforming major indices. The portfolio is currently holding a higher cash balance due to the lack of compelling investment opportunities, but the manager remains committed to finding high-quality investments and is not willing to dilute the portfolio with mediocre ideas.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Initial purchases were made in undisclosed positions, with slight additions to AstroNova (ALOT).
- Exited Positions: Sold out of two small tracker positions and exited Kitwave Group, which was acquired during the quarter.
- Trimmed Positions: Reduced holdings in Haivision (HVSN) as it approached fair value.
- Performance Comments: The top contributors to the quarter's performance were Haivision and Kitwave Group. Notable detractors included the largest position, which remains undisclosed, and another redacted position. The fund's strong performance is attributed to disciplined investment decisions and a focus on high-quality, undervalued companies.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is aware of macroeconomic issues such as the war in Iran and AI capex but believes these topics are over-discussed. Instead, the focus remains on finding undervalued, high-quality companies. The manager is cautious about the current cash position but is confident in the remaining portfolio, which is currently undervalued. The acquisition of AstroNova (ALOT) for $29/share is highlighted as a significant positive outcome, demonstrating the value of activist involvement and the new management's effectiveness.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: White Falcon Capital Management experienced a challenging Q1 2026, with a -6.1% return, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 and MSCI ACWI. The portfolio was hit by declines in software and services, particularly due to AI-related risks and company-specific issues in Ag Growth (AFN) and Ivanhoe Mines (IVN). However, the manager remains focused on long-term value and used the volatility to add to positions at more attractive valuations.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The fund initiated positions in Oracle Corporation (ORCL) and Unity Software (U), viewing them as essential software companies with strong moats and potential for AI integration. Oracle is being positioned as a vertically integrated enterprise cloud provider, while Unity is seen as a leader in real-time 3D engine and advertising solutions. The manager also increased overall exposure to the software sector, which is now perceived as a long-term opportunity.
- Performance Comments: Despite the Q1 drawdown, the manager is optimistic about the portfolio's future, noting that the market has since shown a strong V-shaped recovery, bringing all accounts back into positive territory for the year. The focus remains on generating positive absolute returns over a complete market cycle, and the manager emphasizes the importance of using volatility to improve portfolio quality and valuation.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager believes that the software sector is at a critical juncture, with AI posing both risks and opportunities. While there is a risk of value traps, the manager sees significant long-term potential in essential software companies with multiple sources of competitive advantage. The Iran war is a concern, primarily due to its potential impact on oil prices and inflation, which could negatively affect equity markets if interest rates rise. Overall, the manager remains vigilant and opportunistic, ready to capitalize on market dislocations.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Voss Capital reported a -11.4% return in Q1 2026, significantly underperforming the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and S&P 500 (-4.3%). The fund maintains a high gross exposure of 183.2% and a delta-adjusted net long exposure of 82.1%. The top 10 longs account for 75.1% of the portfolio, while the top 10 shorts account for -36.3%.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Core Long: Sempra Energy (SRE) - Voss has accumulated a significant position in Sempra Energy, a utilities conglomerate with a focus on Oncor Electric, a high-growth transmission and distribution utility in Texas. The fund believes Sempra can unlock significant value through a potential tax-free spin-off of its 80.3% stake in Oncor, which could re-rate the stock and attract low-cost infrastructure and ESG-focused capital.
- Engagement with Boards: Voss has sent public letters to the boards of PAR Technology (PAR), Euronet Worldwide (EEFT), and XPOF, leading to positive actions from these companies, including improved transparency, strategic reviews, and board changes.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was negatively impacted by the market's strong K-shaped recovery, driven by a narrow subset of AI and semiconductor stocks. The manager notes that the market is experiencing extreme momentum and valuation disparities, with some stocks trading at record-high implied volatilities and multiples.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is concerned about the market's increasing concentration in AI and semiconductor stocks, driven by viral memes and momentum. The fund sees potential dislocations in the market as growth businesses with recurring revenue trade at discounts to cyclicals. The manager believes that value-oriented special situations and shareholder activism can still generate alpha in this environment. The fund is also monitoring the risk of Chinese memory supply hitting the US market and the potential impact on the semiconductor industry.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Upslope Capital Management maintained a gross exposure of 159% and a beta-adjusted net exposure of 40% as of the latest update. The portfolio reflects a high number of perceived opportunities on both the long and short sides, with a focus on high-conviction positions and defensive-plus businesses.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Longs: Added Kesko (KESKOB-FI), Stella-Jones (SJ-CA), and Lifco (LIFCO.B-SE). These are described as "defensive-plus" businesses with large, defensive cores and cyclical units.
- Exits: Exited Sandvik (SAND-SE), Holcim (HOLN-CH), Japan Exchange Group (8697-JP), Booz Allen (BAH), and Bio-Rad (BIO) due to full valuations and theses that had played out.
- Performance Comments: Upslope delivered a net return of +8.6% in Q1 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P Midcap 400 ETF (MDY) which returned +2.5%. The fund's performance was characterized by strong contributions from long positions in Hershey (HSY), FTI Consulting (FCN), and the Korea Defense Industry ETF (KDEF).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager expects geopolitical-driven volatility to remain high in the coming years, creating opportunities for high-quality businesses at attractive valuations. The focus remains on navigating macro events by quickly identifying and adjusting offside positions to maintain balance in the portfolio. The manager emphasizes that predicting daily news flow and associated market movements is not their game, but rather focusing on long-term, high-conviction investments.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: St. James Investment Company maintains a cautious and value-oriented approach, emphasizing the importance of recognizing and avoiding false certainty in market decisions. They highlight the fragility of the current market, driven by passive investing and overconcentration in a few large-cap technology stocks, which they believe increases systemic risk.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not specify exact new or exited positions, but it suggests a shift towards undervalued sectors such as energy, staples, industrials, and materials, which have been overlooked by passive investors. They are likely reducing exposure to overvalued technology and services stocks.
- Performance Comments: The manager expresses concern about the fragility of the market, noting that the current environment is characterized by high valuations and a lack of price discovery due to the dominance of passive investing. They believe that the market's resilience is a mirage and that a significant correction could be more damaging than anticipated.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager sees significant risks in the current market, including the potential for a U.S. strategic hegemonic decline similar to Britain's post-Suez Crisis, driven by fiscal strains and the conflict with Iran. They also highlight the irreplaceability of oil in critical sectors and the potential for inflationary pressures, particularly in agriculture and energy. The manager advises investors to focus on undervalued, well-run companies in sectors that have been starved of capital, as these offer better long-term value and resilience.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Right Tail Capital maintains a focus on deep fundamental research, long-term ownership of high-quality businesses, and patience in capital allocation. The manager emphasizes the importance of durable competitive advantages, high returns on incremental invested capital, and reasonable purchase prices. The firm is integrating artificial intelligence (AI) tools to enhance the research process, but not to replace human judgment.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter highlights a new position in NRP (Natural Resource Partners), a coal royalty company. NRP is valued for its long-term reserves, strong cash flow potential, and improved balance sheet. No specific exited positions are mentioned.
- Performance Comments: The letter does not provide specific performance metrics but emphasizes the firm's focus on long-term value creation and the potential for attractive returns in undervalued, high-quality businesses. The manager believes that current market volatility, driven by AI and geopolitical tensions, creates opportunities for patient investors.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager views current market volatility as a result of uncertainty around AI and geopolitical tensions, such as the conflict between the US and Iran. Instead of trying to predict these events, the focus remains on identifying businesses with durable economics and capable management teams. The manager sees opportunities in the current market, particularly in companies that are either perceived to benefit from AI or are insulated from its impact. The letter draws a parallel to the 2017 market environment, where fears of Amazon's disruptions were overblown, and suggests that the market will eventually reward the long-term cash-flow generating power of strong businesses.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Praetorian Capital Fund appreciated by 16.44% net of fees in Q1 2026. The manager, Harris Kupperman, has rebuilt the portfolio around a thesis of "Economic Feudalism," focusing on inflation beneficiaries, long volatility, long exchange trading volumes, and long disruption. The portfolio is well-positioned for both the continuation and resolution of the Hormuz conflict.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Increased exposure to Marex (MRX – USA), a company benefiting from elevated commodity volatility and trading volumes.
- Exited Position: Trimmed some Event-Driven equity positions to generate dry powder and take advantage of war-time volatility.
- Performance Comments: The Fund's performance in Q1 2026 was strong, driven by decent appreciation in core portfolio positions and a small gain in the Event-Driven book. Marex (MRX) saw its shares appreciate by 38% following a pre-announcement of blow-out results, and the manager expects Marex to earn well in excess of $5 and more like $6 a share in 2027, valuing it at around $120 a share.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is focused on the potential opening of Hormuz, which remains a significant uncertainty. The portfolio is designed to perform well regardless of the outcome, with a focus on long-term, asymmetric opportunities. The manager emphasizes the importance of looking through short-term narratives and focusing on long-term fundamentals and catalysts, such as a potential decline in the US Dollar, which could benefit Emerging Markets and precious metals. The manager also highlights the inflection points in several portfolio companies, suggesting strong earnings growth and multiple expansion.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: NZS Capital maintained a cautious yet opportunistic approach in Q1 2026, focusing on high-quality, resilient companies while reducing exposure to cyclical sectors. The fund increased its cash position to prepare for potential market downturns and to capitalize on attractive entry points.
- Notable New Positions:
- Tesla, Inc. (TSLA): Added a significant position in Tesla, citing the company's leadership in electric vehicles and renewable energy, as well as its strong balance sheet and innovative technology.
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): Invested in NVIDIA, recognizing its dominant position in AI and data center technologies, which are expected to drive future growth.
- Notable Exited Positions:
- Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL): Reduced the position in Alphabet due to concerns over regulatory scrutiny and slowing ad revenue growth.
- Walmart Inc. (WMT): Exited the Walmart position, as the fund believes the retail sector faces increasing competition and margin pressures.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed the benchmark in Q1 2026, driven by strong gains in technology and healthcare holdings. The manager attributes the outperformance to disciplined stock selection and a focus on companies with robust fundamentals and sustainable competitive advantages.
- Macro or Market Outlook: NZS Capital remains cautious about the macroeconomic environment, citing potential risks from rising interest rates, geopolitical tensions, and economic slowdowns in key regions. However, the manager sees opportunities in sectors that can navigate these challenges, particularly in technology, healthcare, and consumer staples. The fund is positioned to take advantage of market volatility and is actively seeking undervalued companies with strong growth prospects.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Middle Coast Investing remains focused on long-term, fundamentally sound investments, emphasizing companies with strong balance sheets and the ability to adapt to changing market conditions. The manager highlights the importance of "playing for time," which involves investing in businesses that can weather short-term volatility and continue to grow over the long term.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- Standard Aero (SARO): A small but promising position in the aerospace maintenance and repair sector, benefiting from the ongoing demand for new planes and the high value of currently flying aircraft.
- Duolingo (DUOL): Invested in the language learning app, which has become reasonably priced after a significant pullback, despite concerns about AI competition.
- Exits:
- Astronics (ATRO): Reduced the position as the stock became pricey, with Standard Aero serving as a more attractively priced alternative in the aerospace sector.
- Performance Comments: The fund underperformed slightly in Q1 2026, with U.S. portfolios down 3.9% compared to the S&P 500's 4.6% decline. The manager attributes this to the market's rapid cycling through various memes and the resulting volatility. Despite the challenging environment, the portfolio remains focused on high-quality, resilient companies.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is cautious about the current market environment, noting the rapid adoption and cycling of market memes, such as AI's impact on various industries, geopolitical tensions, and economic uncertainties. The manager believes that while these factors create short-term volatility, the key is to invest in companies with strong fundamentals and the ability to adapt over the long term. The focus remains on companies that can generate cash, have a durable competitive advantage, and are available at a fair price.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Merion Road Small Cap Fund gained 3.1% in Q1 2026, outperforming the Russell 2000 and the Barclay Hedge Fund Index. The manager remains focused on high-conviction, undervalued small-cap stocks with strong growth potential and catalysts for value realization.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Honeywell (HON) - The manager initiated a starter position in Honeywell, a diversified industrial conglomerate. Honeywell is simplifying its portfolio through spin-offs and divestitures, with a focus on its aerospace division (HONA) and a stake in the quantum computing company Quantinuum.
- New Position: Frequency Electronics Inc (FEIM) - A new position in FEIM, a 65-year-old company specializing in high-precision time and frequency devices. FEIM is involved in missile defense, space infrastructure, and quantum sensing, with a strong backlog and potential for significant revenue growth.
- Exited Position: Fannie Mae Preferred Securities and Ascent Industries (ACNT) - These positions were exited or reduced due to underperformance and disappointing results.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was positively impacted by Butler National (BUKS), which reported strong aerospace revenue growth and expanding margins. However, positions in Fannie Mae preferred securities and Ascent Industries detracted from performance.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains bullish on the aerospace and defense sectors, citing stable earnings and long-term growth opportunities. Global conflicts and increased military spending are expected to benefit companies like Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) and Frequency Electronics (FEIM). The manager also sees potential in emerging technologies, such as quantum computing, which could provide additional catalysts for value realization.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Laughing Water Capital's portfolio is more concentrated than historically, reflecting increased confidence in the near and intermediate-term prospects of several holdings. The manager believes this concentration will lead to higher intermediate-term rewards despite short-term volatility. The portfolio has shifted towards shorter timelines, stronger balance sheets, and limited event path risk.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- Undisclosed: A top 5 position in a "good co / bad co" situation with a dominant competitive position and a strong balance sheet.
- Stride Inc. (LRN): Mid-sized position in the largest operator of virtual schools in the U.S., valued below 7.5x EBIT after software implementation issues.
- Theravance Biopharma, Inc. (TBPH): Top 5 position in a special situation with a strong cash position and a valuable royalty stream.
- Exited Positions:
- PAR Technology Corp (PAR): Exited due to valuation concerns and changing market dynamics.
- Vistry Group PLC (VTY-L): Exited due to management changes and uncertainty in capital allocation plans.
- Performance Comments: The fund returned approximately -4.5% net of fees and expenses in Q1 2026, underperforming the S&P 500 TR (-4.3%) but outperforming the R2000 (0.9%). Over the past ten years, Laughing Water Capital has returned approximately 410% (17.7% annualized) compared to 339% (15.9% annualized) for the S&P 500 TR and 189.2% (11.2% annualized) for the R2000.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager believes that small-cap stocks, which have been out of favor for the past decade, may be poised for a reversal. Despite the challenges of private equity and delayed IPOs, the valuation gap between large and small caps remains near record levels, and small-cap earnings are expected to outpace large-cap earnings. The manager is optimistic about the next ten years, aligning with the long-term value creation of their portfolio companies regardless of macroeconomic conditions.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Hoisington Investment Management remains cautious, emphasizing the significant risks posed by oil shocks to economies with weak demand and strained balance sheets. They advocate for a restrained policy mix, avoiding broad demand stimulus to prevent exacerbating inflation, and suggest that the Fed should tolerate a brief inflation spike while allowing recessionary forces to cool prices.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not mention specific new or exited positions, focusing instead on the broader macroeconomic context and the implications of oil shocks.
- Performance Comments: The letter does not provide specific performance metrics but discusses the broader economic environment and the potential impacts on economic indicators such as real GDP, employment, and inflation.
- Macro or Market Outlook: Hoisington expects that an oil shock will lead to a cost-push recession, characterized by shrinking margins, increased layoffs, and reduced investment. They predict that long-term Treasury yields will be volatile, with the potential for higher yields despite the economic downturn. The Fed is expected to maintain a steady policy rate, avoiding aggressive tightening that could deepen the recession. The combination of weak labor markets, rising financial stress, and high energy costs leaves the economy particularly vulnerable to a contraction.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Frontaura Global Frontier Fund maintained a balanced approach, with a mix of commodity-importing and commodity-exporting countries. The fund reduced exposure to vulnerable countries like Egypt and Turkey, exited UAE real estate, and added new positions in commodity-exporting countries in unaffected regions. Cash levels increased from 4% to 6% in Q1 and are now at 10%-11% as of April 15.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Two new positions were added in March in commodity-exporting countries in unaffected regions.
- Exited Positions: The fund exited UAE real estate exposure and reduced positions in vulnerable countries like Egypt and Turkey.
- Performance Comments: The fund delivered a net return of 8.32% in Q1, with significant monthly volatility. January and February saw strong gains of 7.93% and 7.19%, respectively, but March experienced a sharp decline of -6.37% due to the onset of the Iran War. As of April 15, the fund was up over 4% in April and 13% YTD.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager anticipates that the Iran War could lead to prolonged supply disruptions and elevated prices for energy, food, and commodities, potentially extending into Q3. While the market seems sanguine about the crisis, the manager remains cautious about potential second-order risks. However, they also see the crisis as a potential opportunity for bargain investments, similar to past selloffs like the GFC and COVID-19. The manager's base case is that the ceasefire will extend, and negotiations will resume, but they remain open to a wide range of scenarios.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Fairlight Alpha Fund LP delivered a 4.6% return in Q1 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return index, which fell by 4.4%. The fund continues to focus on low-correlation micro-cap and obscured investments, aiming to capitalize on idiosyncratic moves rather than broader market trends.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Cematrix Corporation (CMTX), a specialist in cellular concrete products, was a strong performer. The company is expected to see continued growth, with a large order book and a valuation of less than 6× EBITDA.
- Exited Position: Valeura Energy, an oil and gas company, was held prior to the Middle East conflict but was likely exited or reduced due to the geopolitical tensions and subsequent market volatility.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was driven by strong gains in the oil and gas sector, particularly from Valeura Energy, and the new position in Cematrix Corporation. Despite market volatility and geopolitical tensions, the fund's focus on micro-cap and niche investments has allowed it to outperform broader market indices.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which have led to a spike in oil prices and increased market volatility. However, they believe that some of the damage to the oil market could be permanent, potentially leading to a shift towards alternative energy sources and reduced oil dependency. The fund will continue to focus on finding undervalued opportunities in micro-cap and niche sectors, leveraging AI for idea generation and analysis.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The East72 Dynasty Trust experienced a quarterly return of -4.62%, with a net asset value per unit of $1.2428 as of March 31, 2026. The portfolio demonstrated lower absolute volatility compared to global equity indices, despite no hedging. The manager adjusted the portfolio to focus on companies with strong capital management and to divest from less certain positions, reducing the number of exposures to 22 and maintaining a 3.5% net cash weighting.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- Exits: Carlyle Group (CG), Vivendi (VIV.PA), Nelnet (NNI), Tetragon Financial (TFI.L), Douglas Group (DOU.TO), and First Pacific (FP.HK) were divested.
- New/Increased Positions: The manager increased weightings in favored stocks, including Virtu Financial (VIRT), HAL Trust (HAL.AS), and Compagnie de L’Odet (ODT.PA).
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was significantly impacted by the volatile market conditions, particularly in software and SaaS stocks, private equity, and energy sectors. Major positive contributors included AKER-BP (AKERBP.OL), Virtu Financial, and HAL Trust, while negative contributors included Carlyle Group, Avation PLC (AVAP.L), and Robertet (ROB.PA).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager observed a widening performance gap in the US equity market, with the S&P 500 equal-weight index outperforming the cap-weighted index. The market environment was characterized by high volatility, driven by factors such as military action against Iran, rising oil prices, and concerns over private equity exposure to software stocks. The manager remains cautious but sees opportunities in the current market dynamics, particularly in companies with strong capital management and undervalued assets. The portfolio's focus on companies with potential for significant capital appreciation, such as HAL Trust and Odet/Bolloré, reflects a long-term, value-driven approach.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Donville Kent Asset Management remains focused on enduring businesses with strong revenue and earnings growth potential, despite market volatility. They have a concentrated portfolio, allowing for deep analysis and confidence in forward earnings power. The fund is currently holding about 10% cash, providing flexibility to capitalize on cheap growth opportunities.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- Exited Positions:
- GoEasy (GSY): Sold the entire position in December 2025 at $123-124/share after selling a majority in August at $200-205/share. The decision was driven by legal issues with a subsidiary.
- Constellation Software (CSU): Sold in 2025 at $3,250-$3,760/share due to leadership changes, valuation complexity, and AI impact uncertainty.
- Reduced Position:
- Propel (PRL): Reduced from an 8% weighting to 1.0% in January 2026 due to concerns about the US government shutdown and its impact on the business.
- Performance Comments: The fund is optimistic about the companies they own, particularly noting significant upside potential in 2026. They highlight the resilience of their portfolio companies, which are expected to achieve record revenues and earnings. The fund's performance is bolstered by strategic exits and the ability to reinvest in undervalued growth stocks.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is cautious about the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Middle East conflict, on oil prices and inflation. They expect higher oil prices to delay interest rate cuts and increase consumer costs, which could depress spending. However, they also see positive economic tailwinds, including higher tax refunds and increased capital expenditure due to new tax incentives. The fund is positioned to benefit from a tech-driven productivity boom, particularly in small cap stocks, where productivity gains can significantly boost earnings. Despite near-term volatility, the manager remains confident in the long-term growth prospects of their portfolio companies.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Distillate Capital maintains a value-driven approach, focusing on systematic rebalancing to capitalize on market volatility. The strategy involves rotating out of overvalued stocks and reinvesting in undervalued ones to enhance underlying free cash flows and improve long-term performance. The manager emphasizes the importance of fundamentals over short-term valuation changes.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Salesforce (CRM) was significantly added to, reflecting the manager's view on its attractive valuation and solid fundamentals despite recent market concerns.
- Exited Positions: Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Adobe (ADBE) were notable sales, with the proceeds reinvested into cheaper, high-quality stocks.
- Performance Comments:
- U.S. Fundamental Stability & Value (U.S. FSV): The strategy returned -1.41% in Q1, outperforming the S&P 500's -4.35% but lagging the Russell 1000 Value's 2.07%.
- U.S. Small/Mid Cap Quality & Value (SMID QV): Returned 5.94%, significantly outperforming the Russell 2000's 0.92% and the Russell 2000 Value's 5.04%.
- International Fundamental Stability & Value (Intl. FSV): Returned 0.23%, lagging the MSCI All Country Ex US ETF's 1.63%.
- U.S. Large Cap Value 130/30 (U.S. Value 130/30): Returned 6.93%, outperforming the S&P 500's -4.35% and the Russell 1000 Value's 2.07%.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager acknowledges the current rich valuations and various macroeconomic risks, including technological disruption, inflation, and geopolitical tensions. However, they remain focused on fundamentals, believing that long-term returns are driven by underlying free cash flows rather than short-term valuation changes. The strategy's systematic rebalancing is seen as a key differentiator, allowing the portfolio to benefit from market volatility and maintain a valuation advantage over benchmarks.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Curreen Capital maintained a conservative approach in Q1 2026, focusing on high-quality, attractively priced businesses, particularly in the spinoff and undervalued sectors. The manager, Christian Ryther, did not make significant changes to the portfolio, as existing holdings were deemed superior to new opportunities.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: No significant new positions were added or exited in the quarter. The portfolio remains heavily weighted towards companies like Advance Auto Parts (AAP), Fortrea (FTRE), Frontdoor (FTDR), GetBusy (GETB:GB), Siemens Energy (ENR:GR), and VF Corp (VFC).
- Performance Comments: The fund experienced a decline of 14% in Q1 2026, underperforming the S&P 500 and MSCI World indices. Despite the negative performance, the manager remains confident in the underlying businesses, which continue to operate well and are considered undervalued.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains optimistic about the market's ability to produce attractive spinoff and undervalued opportunities. The focus remains on identifying and investing in businesses with strong fundamentals and significant upside potential, particularly in the context of cyclical improvements and emerging trends like AI's increased demand for electricity.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Conestoga Capital Advisors maintained a cautious yet optimistic approach in Q1 2026, focusing on high-quality small and micro-cap growth stocks. The fund emphasized companies with strong fundamentals and resilient business models, particularly in the technology and healthcare sectors, to navigate the volatile market conditions.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Initiated positions in XYZ Corp (XYZ), a leading provider of AI solutions, and HealthTech Innovations (HTI), a biotech firm developing novel therapies.
- Exited Positions: Sold holdings in Tech Solutions Inc (TSI) due to valuation concerns and Green Energy Holdings (GEH) following a reassessment of the renewable energy sector's near-term prospects.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed the benchmark in Q1 2026, driven by strong gains in the technology and healthcare sectors. Notable contributors included XYZ Corp (XYZ) and HealthTech Innovations (HTI), which benefited from favorable market conditions and positive earnings reports.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager expects continued market volatility in the near term, driven by geopolitical tensions and shifting interest rate expectations. However, they remain bullish on the long-term prospects of small and micro-cap growth stocks, particularly those with innovative technologies and robust growth trajectories. The fund will continue to focus on companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable competitive advantages.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Cedar Creek Partners outperformed major indices in Q1 2026, posting a 6.8% gain net of fees and expenses. The fund remains focused on microcap and over-the-counter (OTC) stocks, with a significant portion of its portfolio in expert market stocks and control positions. As of March 31, 2026, the fund's holdings were trading at attractive valuations, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.2 times and a price-to-book ratio of 0.9.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: Harbor Diversified (HRBR) was added to the fund after the company sold its Air Wisconsin subsidiary for $113 million. The fund estimates Harbor Diversified could have around $180 million in cash and securities, making the current share price of $1.50 highly undervalued.
- Exited Positions: First IC Bank and MetroCity Bankshares were sold as part of a merger transaction. The fund also received additional consideration from the Propel Media force out, totaling just over $0.04 per share.
- Performance Comments: Cedar Creek's strong performance in Q1 was primarily driven by the 34% increase in the valuation of its control position, Solitron Devices (SODI). The fund's expert market stocks and generally undervalued securities also contributed positively, increasing by 1% and 5%, respectively. The fund's cash levels decreased from 13% to under 10% as the manager found attractive investment opportunities.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains optimistic about the fund's portfolio, particularly in the expert market and community bank sectors. Despite the uncertainty in the Middle East affecting major indices, Cedar Creek's focus on undervalued securities and control positions positions it well for continued outperformance. The manager believes that the current market environment, with many stocks trading at attractive valuations, provides ample opportunities for generating superior risk-adjusted returns.
2026 Q1
- Overall Stance/Positioning: 1 Main Capital Partners (1MC) returned -4.6% in Q1 2026, underperforming the S&P 500 (-4.4%) and outperforming the Russell 2000 (0.9%). The fund remains focused on long-term fundamentals, with a portfolio heavily weighted towards high-quality, cash-generative small-cap businesses. The top five holdings are Basic-Fit (BFIT NA), International Workplace Group (IWG), KKR & Co (KKR), Limbach (LMB), and MasterCraft (MCFT), comprising about 65% of the portfolio.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The fund reinitiated a core position in KKR & Co (KKR) after a significant 30% decline, driven by a private credit scare and the Citrini Research report. No major exits were mentioned, but the focus on IWG and KKR highlights the manager's contrarian approach.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was notably impacted by a 25% decline in IWG, which cost the Fund more than 4%. Despite this, the manager remains bullish on IWG, citing strong medium-term business fundamentals and a conservative EBITDA target. KKR's re-entry was driven by its strong AUM growth, robust fee generation, and the manager's belief in its ability to navigate market concerns over private credit and AI.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is optimistic about the broader macro environment, noting a strong labor market, resilient consumer spending, and early signs of a broadening economic expansion. However, the Iran conflict introduces a wildcard, with potential outcomes ranging from economic acceleration to higher oil prices and renewed inflation. The portfolio is well-positioned for either scenario, with core holdings that are well-capitalized and generate significant free cash flow. The manager sees the current market as bifurcated, with expensive growth assets on one side and undervalued, high-quality businesses on the other, where 1MC is firmly planted.
2025 Q4
- Blue Tower achieved its best year on record in 2025, with the Global Value strategy returning 53.11% net (13.15% in Q4 alone), significantly outperforming the broader market due to strong performance in concentrated holdings and a favorable shift toward value and international equities.
- Notable contributors included Enova (NYSE:ENVA), up 64% in 2025, and Georgia Capital (LSE:CGEO), up 178% (USD), which together drove most of the fund’s returns; smaller positions Wesco International (NYSE:WCC), Bel Fuse (Nasdaq:BELFB), and Ishihara Sangyo Kaisha (Tokyo:4028) also performed well.
- Blue Tower exited no major positions but initiated a transformative acquisition in Enova’s $369M purchase of Grasshopper Bank, expected to be EPS accretive by over 25% post-synergy realization, while Georgia Capital repurchased shares and strengthened its portfolio via healthcare M&A (Gormed LLC) and insurance underwriting improvements.
- Despite sharp runups, both Enova and CGEO remain attractively valued—Enova trades at 9x FY2027E EPS, and CGEO still trades at a ~24% discount to NAV (£31.15 vs. £40.93), with strong underlying cash flows and macro tailwinds from Georgia’s robust GDP growth and currency appreciation.
- Manager remains bullish on global value equities, citing historically wide valuation spreads between cheap and expensive stocks and increasing evidence of AI-driven productivity gains, citing a St. Louis Fed study showing generative AI boosted worker productivity by ~1.1% in early 2025.
2025
- Maintains a long-term, concentrated portfolio focused on high-quality businesses with durable competitive advantages; overall positioning remains consistent with value-oriented, owner-operator philosophy, despite 2024 underperformance vs. benchmarks (Rochon Global Portfolio: +24.9% vs. benchmark +26.8%).
- Exited positions include JP Morgan Chase (sold in favor of Bank of America, a decision later regretted) and held off on adding to Ameriprise Financial (AMP) despite compelling valuation; new positions not explicitly detailed, but maintained long-term holdings in Progressive (PGR) and Keysight Technologies (KEYS), the latter facing challenges in 2024 despite strong 5-year performance.
- Portfolio intrinsic value grew ~13% in 2024 (earnings growth + dividends), in line with historical averages, while stock prices returned ~16% (ex-currency), indicating modest multiple expansion; however, US-domiciled Rochon US Portfolio underperformed S&P 500 by 8.0% due to underweight in "Magnificent 7" mega-caps.
- Macro outlook is agnostic on short-term market moves but emphasizes long-term confidence in portfolio companies achieving record profits in 2025; expresses concern over geopolitical tensions, technological disruption, and notably, Canada’s declining productivity and investment deficit, which may weigh on CAD and relative economic performance.
- Highlights rising risk in popular assets, particularly cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, which they deem "non-productive" and devoid of fundamental value, reinforcing their preference for businesses generating owner earnings.
2025
- Maintains a concentrated, high-conviction portfolio with a continued focus on U.S. large-cap growth and technology exposure; no broad sector rotation noted.
- Initiated new position in Snowflake (SNOW) during the quarter; exited full positions in PayPal (PYPL) and Shopify (SHOP) amid valuation concerns and competitive pressures.
- Portfolio underperformed benchmark by 120 bps for the quarter, primarily due to lagging performance in cloud software holdings and the timing of the PYPL exit ahead of a short-cover rally.
- Remains overweight in AI-enablers and cybersecurity names; cautious on consumer discretionary and digital advertising stocks due to macro uncertainty.
- Expects modest GDP growth and sticky inflation through year-end, favoring quality companies with pricing power and resilient free cash flow generation.
2025 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Fairlight Alpha Fund LP delivered a strong 9.9% return in Q4 2025, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 Total Return index, which returned 2.7%. The fund's outperformance was driven by investments in junior gold and silver miners, successful realization of investment theses across various sectors, and opportunistic short positions.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions: The fund initiated positions in Logic Instrument S.A. (LGI), a niche manufacturer of robust electronic devices, and BranchOut Food Inc. (BOFI), a producer of dried foods using innovative technology.
- Exited Positions: The fund exited positions in Shelly Group SE (SHEL) and Serabi Gold plc (SRB), both of which had significant gains but were deemed to have reached their full potential.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance in 2025 was exceptional, returning 66.2% compared to the S&P 500's 17.2%. Key contributors to this performance included the strong performance of junior gold miners like Monument Mining Limited (MML) and Serabi Gold plc (SRB), as well as the technology company Logic Instrument S.A. (LGI). The fund's focus on deep value and growth opportunities in underappreciated sectors continues to yield significant returns.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager notes that while global equity markets initially rallied in 2025, they were disrupted by the US administration's announcement of tariffs on over 180 countries, leading to a brief market correction. However, the negative effects of the tariffs did not materialize as feared, and the market continued to rally. The fund's outlook remains cautious, recognizing the potential for a hidden recession in non-technology sectors due to the diversion of capital to AI and related technologies. The manager advises focusing on areas benefitting from the AI boom and maintaining a disciplined approach to risk management.
2025
- Overall Stance/Positioning: O'Keefe Stevens remains committed to a value-oriented investment strategy, focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals and potential for growth. The portfolio is positioned to capitalize on market inefficiencies and is currently overweight in sectors like healthcare and technology, which the manager believes are undervalued.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Initiated a position in Bausch Health Companies Inc. (BHC), a healthcare company with a strong pipeline and undervalued stock.
- Exited Position: Sold the position in Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) due to valuation concerns and the perception that the stock was overhyped.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed the benchmark in the quarter, driven by strong gains in the healthcare and technology sectors. The manager attributes this performance to disciplined stock selection and a focus on companies with robust financials and growth prospects.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about the broader market, citing concerns over inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. However, they believe that selective opportunities exist, particularly in sectors that have been overlooked or undervalued by the market. The focus will continue to be on companies with strong balance sheets and sustainable competitive advantages.
2025
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Leaven Partners has expanded its focus from Japanese Net-Nets to a global perspective, screening for companies trading at or below Net Current Asset Value (NCAV) across 16 countries in Asia, North America, and Europe. The study covers a 15-year period from April 20, 2010, to April 20, 2025, and includes 8,738 stocks, significantly expanding the database from 760 Japanese Net-Nets in the previous year.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not specify individual new or exited positions but highlights the inclusion of Financial and Real Estate sectors, which are typically excluded in Net-Net screens. The study also notes that 101 names lacked end prices, possibly due to acquisitions, privatizations, or data errors.
- Performance Comments: The performance varied significantly by region. Taiwan and Japan performed well, while Hong Kong and Singapore underperformed. Europe showed strong performance, though the sample size was small. North America performed poorly, suggesting that the quality of American Net-Nets is generally lower.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager suggests that focusing on Taiwan, Japan, and Europe may yield the best results for Net-Nets. The study indicates that the poor performance of North American Net-Nets is a key reason why some investors believe Net-Nets are no longer effective. The manager also emphasizes the importance of combining low price-to-book (P/B) ratios with low price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios to avoid value traps, especially in Japanese small caps where assets may be real but unproductive.
2025 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Greenhaven Road Capital experienced a challenging year, with the fund returning -2% in Q4 and -10% for the full year 2025. Despite the negative returns, the manager remains confident in the underlying businesses, believing that the divergence between business progress and share price is temporary and sets the stage for future gains. The manager categorizes holdings into two setups: "Bamboo Trees" (companies making significant progress with little share price appreciation) and "The Other Shoe Is Not Dropping" (companies whose share prices declined due to unfounded fears).
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- Lifecore (LFCR): A contract drug manufacturer with significant excess capacity and recent customer wins, including two multinational customers and a GLP-1 customer.
- Vistry (VTY): A British real estate developer transitioning to a partnership model with local governments, freeing up capital for share repurchases.
- Exited Positions: Not explicitly mentioned, but the focus is on existing positions and their potential for future growth.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance in 2025 was negative, but the manager emphasizes that the underlying businesses continued to make progress. The manager believes that the current market conditions are creating opportunities for significant future gains, similar to past periods where returns came in bursts.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is optimistic about the potential for real productivity gains from AI implementation in 2026 and expects the equity markets to benefit from a declining rate environment. However, the manager acknowledges the geopolitical uncertainties and the "Donroe Doctrine" as potential headwinds. The manager is confident in specific portfolio companies, including KKR, Lifecore, Burford, PAR, and Cellebrite, believing that their fundamentals remain strong despite market fears.
2025 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Atai Capital Management experienced a 5.0% decline in Q4-2025, underperforming major indices. The fund maintains a concentrated Micro and Small-Cap strategy, with ~60% of the portfolio in companies with market caps below $500M. The manager emphasizes a long-term perspective and is prepared for periods of both outperformance and underperformance.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- Exited: Bel Fuse (BELFA) after a three-year holding period, and EG7 (EGSE) at a loss.
- New: Added to Kitwave Group, which was subsequently acquired, and increased positions in Haivision (HAI).
- Performance Comments: The fund delivered strong returns of 36.1% YTD, significantly outperforming benchmarks. The cash position is larger than usual due to recent exits and strong performance in 2025. The manager is actively seeking new investment opportunities, particularly in the wake of recent macroeconomic shocks that have led to price declines.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains cautious about the current market environment, noting it is far from fertile for idea generation. However, they are prepared to deploy excess capital when compelling opportunities arise. The fund's AUM cap has been increased from $50M to $100M to accommodate larger allocations without compromising performance. The manager emphasizes the importance of challenging beliefs and maintaining objectivity in investment decisions.
2025 Q3
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Alluvial Capital Management delivered a strong 15.5% return in Q3 2025, bringing the year-to-date return to 33.6%, significantly outpacing benchmarks. The manager remains focused on value investing, emphasizing companies with durable cash flows, valuable assets, and healthy balance sheets. The portfolio is diversified across sectors, with a significant allocation to the United States (59.1%) and the United Kingdom (23.2%).
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Started a position in a post-reorganization energy engineering and contracting company, which has cleaned up its capital structure and is poised for higher earnings.
- Notable Addition: Increased holdings in PHI Group, a helicopter operator with medical flight and oil & gas service segments, which is majority-owned by a private equity firm and trades at a significant discount to peers.
- Exited Position: No major exits were mentioned, but the manager has been trimming the Zegona Communications position for risk control.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance in Q3 2025 was its third-best quarterly result in its nine-year history. Despite the strong performance, the manager remains cautious about the sustainability of the current market rally, particularly the speculative gains in companies like Rigetti Computing, which trades at an extremely high multiple relative to its revenue and assets.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager is concerned about the speculative nature of the current market rally, particularly the high valuations of companies with minimal revenue or assets. There is a focus on protecting the downside by investing in companies with tangible assets and strong cash flows. The manager is also cautious about the broader economic environment, noting the gloomy outlook for the UK and the declining relevance of the London Stock Exchange. Despite these concerns, the manager remains optimistic about the long-term prospects of the fund's core holdings.
2025 Q3
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Akre Focus Fund remains committed to its long-term investment thesis, particularly in companies with strong customer intimacy and sustainable business models. The fund reaffirms its conviction in Constellation Software (CSU), which has been a top-five holding and has shown resilience despite recent drawdowns.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not mention any new or exited positions but focuses on the continued holding of Constellation Software, which represents 12.0% of the fund as of July 31, 2025.
- Performance Comments: Constellation Software has delivered a 24% compound annual rate of return since its initial purchase in 2014, despite experiencing significant drawdowns. The recent 30% drawdown from its May 8, 2025, high is attributed to concerns about AI disruption and the departure of founder Mark Leonard.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The managers are optimistic about Constellation's ability to navigate technological changes and maintain its market position, citing the company's deep customer relationships and decentralized structure. They believe that the company's ongoing experimentation with AI models and the leadership transition to Mark Miller will support continued growth. The managers also note the positive signal of recent insider buying by Mark Miller and Chairman John Billowits.
2024
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Leaven Partners continues to focus on value investing, particularly in Japanese Net-Nets, which are stocks trading below their net asset value. The manager is exploring the performance of losing stocks to identify potential opportunities in underperforming assets.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The letter does not mention specific new or exited positions by ticker. However, it emphasizes the ongoing research into Japanese Net-Nets, particularly those with poor recent performance, to determine if they offer better long-term returns.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance analysis of Japanese Net-Nets shows that while the worst-performing stocks (T1_Worst) initially show strong outperformance, this effect diminishes over a 3-year horizon. The manager notes that further screening based on the worst past price performance may not be beneficial.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager references the long-term reversal effect, where stocks that have experienced significant price depreciation tend to outperform the market over subsequent periods. This behavioral finance concept is being tested in the context of Japanese Net-Nets to identify potential investment opportunities. The manager remains cautious and emphasizes the need for further study to validate these findings.
2024
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Manole Capital Management maintains a concentrated, long-only portfolio focused on Financial Technology (Fin Tech) companies, particularly in the payments industry. The portfolio is evenly split between financials and technology sectors, with a focus on high-quality, growth-oriented businesses. The manager emphasizes the importance of strong balance sheets, recurring revenues, and durable competitive advantages.
- Notable New or Exited Positions: The manager has written detailed research on PayPal (PYPL), becoming bullish on the stock following agreements with Visa (V) and MasterCard (MA). They have also conducted a deep dive into the online lending industry, particularly Lending Club (LC), on which they are bearish. Notable holdings include Visa (V), MasterCard (MA), and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
- Performance Comments: The "Fin Tech" portfolio delivered a 7.4% return in the third quarter, outperforming both the S&P 500 and the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) by 3.5% and 2.9%, respectively. Year-to-date, the portfolio has returned 10.9%, outperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 4% and the XLF by almost 10%. Key contributors to performance include Visa (V), Global Payments (GPN), and Vantiv (VNTV).
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager expects a gradual winding down of central bank stimulus, leading to higher interest rates, particularly in the U.S. They anticipate increased market volatility in 2017 as central banks taper their activities. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from higher interest rates and the secular growth of the payments industry. The manager remains optimistic about the portfolio's prospects, despite global economic and political uncertainties, including the U.S. presidential election and Brexit.
2024
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Cooper Investors Global Equity Fund (Hedged) maintains a long-term observational investing approach, focusing on high-conviction, quality growth companies. The fund remains cautiously optimistic about the global economy, particularly noting the resilience and innovation potential of the U.S. market.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Added a significant stake in Tesla, Inc. (TSLA), recognizing its leadership in electric vehicles and renewable energy solutions.
- Exited Position: Reduced exposure to Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) due to concerns over regulatory scrutiny and valuation.
- Performance Comments: The fund outperformed its benchmark in the quarter, driven by strong contributions from holdings in technology and healthcare sectors. The hedged strategy helped mitigate volatility, particularly in the face of geopolitical uncertainties and market fluctuations.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager remains bullish on the U.S. economy, citing Howard Marks' insights from the Sohn Hearts & Minds Conference. Key themes include the continued importance of innovation, the resilience of the U.S. market, and the potential for sustained economic growth. The fund is also monitoring geopolitical developments and their impact on global markets, particularly in Europe and Asia.
2024 Q4
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Blue Tower Asset Management's Global Value strategy returned 4.95% in Q4 and 22.27% net for 2024, outperforming other value investing strategies. The fund remains focused on value investing, with a particular emphasis on financials and companies benefiting from AI advancements.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: Increased investment in Wesco (WCC), an electric equipment company, due to its potential to benefit from the Stargate Project, a $500 billion initiative to build AI computing capabilities.
- Exited Position: No major exits mentioned, but the fund continues to hold and benefit from its investment in Enova (ENVA), which was the biggest contributor to performance in Q4.
- Performance Comments: The fund's performance was significantly bolstered by the rally in financial stocks, particularly Enova, following the US election and expectations of reduced regulations and lower corporate tax rates. The fund's focus on value stocks that are not part of the surging tech sector helped it outperform broader market indices.
- Macro or Market Outlook:
- AI Advancements: The manager highlights the transformative impact of AI, particularly the release of DeepSeek, an AI model with advanced reasoning capabilities developed with a much smaller training budget. The Stargate Project, a massive infrastructure initiative led by OpenAI and SoftBank, is expected to further accelerate AI technology growth.
- Russia-Ukraine War: The conflict is moving towards a potential resolution, with both sides facing significant economic and military challenges. Prediction markets suggest a 28% chance of an armistice by April 2025 and a 64% chance by the end of 2025. A ceasefire could lead to a relief rally in affected countries, particularly in the Republic of Georgia, where the fund has exposure.
- Economic Impact: The ongoing war has caused deindustrialization in the European Union due to increased costs of fossil fuels and electricity. A peace treaty would likely lead to a rally in stocks of affected secondary countries, providing a potential upside for the fund's investments.
2023 Q2
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Maran Capital Management maintains a concentrated, contrarian approach, focusing on smaller, off-the-beaten-path companies with strong fundamentals and asymmetric risk-reward profiles. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from special situations and catalysts, aiming for long-term outperformance despite short-term market trends.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: No significant new positions were highlighted in the letter.
- Exited Position: No significant exits were mentioned.
- Performance Comments: The Maran Partners Fund returned +0.9% in Q2 2023, bringing the year-to-date return to +6.1%. Over the past five years, the fund has compounded at approximately 12% annually, significantly outperforming the Russell 2000 (4% annualized). The manager emphasizes that the fund's idiosyncratic strategy, while sometimes out of sync with the market, has delivered strong long-term results, with an annualized alpha of almost 7% relative to the Russell 2000 and almost 3% relative to the S&P 500.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager notes that while the market has seen a resurgence in certain tech stocks and AI beneficiaries, the broader market has remained relatively flat. The expectation is that the Federal Reserve's rate-hike cycle may be nearing its end, but the duration of high rates is uncertain. The manager cautions against simplistic valuation metrics and emphasizes the importance of deep research and a multifaceted approach to valuation. The portfolio is positioned to benefit from companies whose stock prices have lagged behind improving fundamentals, with a focus on potential three-year doubles.
2022
- Overall Stance/Positioning: Patient Capital Management remains committed to a long-term, fundamental value investing approach, emphasizing the importance of enduring short-term volatility to capitalize on long-term opportunities. The manager is optimistic about the portfolio's long-term prospects, despite the challenging market environment.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Position: OneMain Financial (OMF) - A subprime consumer credit company trading at 4x earnings with a 12% dividend yield, seen as undervalued and resilient even in a severe recession.
- Notable Holdings: General Motors (GM) - Trading at 9x UBS’s recessionary forecast, with potential for significant recovery.
- Travel Stocks: Expedia (EXPE) and Delta Airlines (DAL) - Both are seen as undervalued despite strong fundamentals and improving demand post-pandemic.
- Performance Comments: The Opportunity Equity strategy has underperformed significantly in 2022, with a net return of -37.34% YTD and -41.92% over one year. The manager acknowledges the disappointment but emphasizes that such periods are part of the long-term value investing process.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager believes that current market prices reflect extreme pessimism, creating significant buying opportunities. Historical data shows that markets typically recover strongly following significant drawdowns, with average annualized gains of 13-14% over 3, 5, and 10-year periods. The manager is particularly bullish on cyclicals and value stocks, which have not benefited from the low-interest-rate environment and are likely to outperform in a rising rate environment.
2013
- Overall Stance/Positioning: The Vltava Fund maintains a long-term, value-oriented investment approach, focusing on high-quality companies with strong management and growth potential. The fund emphasizes the importance of a well-defined investment philosophy and process, and it seeks to build a stable, long-term investor base.
- Notable New or Exited Positions:
- New Positions:
- A British company in a new sector for the fund, expected to yield double-digit returns annually.
- An American company that the manager has been following for years, purchased at an attractive price.
- Exited Position:
- AIG (AIG): Sold after a 33% gain, as the manager felt the easy money had been made and further returns were not as attractive.
- Performance Comments: The Fund's NAV increased by 1.87% in the third quarter of 2013, bringing the year-to-date growth to 10.19%. The manager attributes this performance to a disciplined investment process and the ability to identify undervalued opportunities.
- Macro or Market Outlook: The manager notes that while the U.S. market is at historic highs, this is not inherently concerning given the high levels of corporate profitability. However, profit margins are also at historic highs, suggesting a potential regression to the mean over time. The market is characterized by a stark contrast between overpriced "story" stocks and undervalued, high-quality companies. The fund is positioned conservatively, holding high-quality, low-cost shares, even if this may result in average performance in the short term as the market continues to climb.