Leonid Mironov argues that the current misalignment between the consensus view of China (deflation, debt, and demographics) and the actual data presents an investment opportunity. He highlights that for the first time in 20 years, China's capital supply, demand for investment, and potential returns are aligning, particularly in the financial plumbing and capex redirection. Ticker: None specified, but the thesis suggests looking into Chinese financial and capex-related sectors.
Core Thesis: RADCOM (RDCM) is a profitable, AI-resilient telecom software company with a strong balance sheet and undervalued enterprise value, making it an attractive microcap investment. The company's trailing P/E of 17 is misleading due to its $108M cash reserve, resulting in an effective 8x earnings multiple for a business growing at 10%.
Actionable View: Consider adding RADCOM (RDCM) to the portfolio, given its cheap valuation, strong cash position, and robust business model in a sector with significant AI-driven growth potential.
The post explores whether shareholder letters to company boards can drive meaningful change and potentially catalyze a re-rating of the stock. While the effectiveness varies, the author suggests that well-crafted letters can indeed influence board decisions and improve shareholder value. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
The thesis centers on a coastal insurer (ticker not specified) trading at 6x earnings with a 25-30% ROE, managed by a team with a strong track record, including a CEO with experience at Bridgewater. Despite recent favorable weather boosting ROE to +40%, the market expects a reversion to prior management's lower ROE, underestimating the company's improved data-driven pricing and cost management. The company is poised for double-digit growth, with a conservative management team, a 7% share buyback, and potential activist-driven sale, positioning it for a rerating to 10-15x PE, potentially delivering triple-digit returns.
CME, ICE, and CBOE are down 25% from their highs, presenting a potential buying opportunity despite concerns over Kalshi’s perpetual futures and the one-off surge in Iran War volatility. These exchanges benefit from strong moats, including liquidity network effects, collateral efficiency, and established clearing and settlement relationships, making them resilient to new competition. Project Zimbabwe, a scenario of increased retail speculation and volatility, supports continued earnings growth, particularly in interest rate and energy futures. Tickers: CME, ICE, CBOE.
Equinix (EQIX) has surged 39% YTD, driven by its pivotal role in the AI infrastructure cycle, with AI-related demand now comprising 50-60% of its largest bookings. The company's unique position as the connective tissue between enterprises, clouds, and networks, particularly for low-latency compute, positions it to benefit from the ongoing operational wave of AI, supporting its $105 billion market cap and strong financial performance.
The core thesis is that CPUs are becoming the next GPUs in the AI and agentic AI era, driven by the increasing demand for general-purpose compute in agent orchestration and memory management. This shift is expected to significantly expand the server CPU market from $37 billion in 2025 to a potential $170-223 billion by 2030, with a focus on ARM architecture and AMD as key beneficiaries. actionable market view: Consider long positions in ARM and AMD, with Nvidia as a high-quality play within a broader AI portfolio.
The post argues that companies can achieve "escape velocity" by using overvalued equity to acquire undervalued businesses, exemplified by SpaceX's $60 billion stock deal to acquire Cursor. The key actionable insight is that SpaceX's ability to issue new shares and debt at high valuations may continue to drive its growth, but the dilution and sustainability of this strategy remain uncertain. (TICKER: SPCE)
The core thesis is that the company, with a ticker unspecified, is a compelling buy due to its robust 40% revenue growth, high profitability (20% free cash flow margin, 36% ROCE), and an attractive valuation at 19x P/E. The actionable market view is to consider initiating a position given the strong fundamentals and recent valuation improvement.
Schwar Capital has initiated a 5% position in a US-listed small-cap biotech company with a strong track record of execution, high margins, and a robust pipeline. The company recently achieved regulatory approval for its lead asset, expanded gross margins to 73%, and turned GAAP profitable, while also raising long-term targets and outlining a compelling 10-year vision. Ticker: Not provided.
The post argues that bonds issued by Macy's (M) are an attractive investment, likening them to a high-quality steak due to their strong yield and creditworthiness. The actionable market view is to consider purchasing Macy's bonds for their compelling risk-reward profile.
Haymaker re-posted a Trading Alert for Ringside members, highlighting a potential buying opportunity in a specific stock due to recent price weakness and strong fundamentals. The actionable ticker is not explicitly mentioned, but the alert suggests investors should consider initiating a position at current levels.
Core Thesis/Argument: The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite showed gains last week, but the week was marked by volatility. Key economic events and earnings reports are scheduled for the week ahead, including Fed speeches, PMI data, and consumer confidence indices. Notably, EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) is in a strong uptrend, while BTC remains technically weak despite recent regulatory progress.
Actionable Market View: Consider adding to EEM on pullbacks, particularly around the 50-day SMA ($65.37) or the $55–$57 zone. For BTC, watch the 200-week MA ($63,552.44) for support, and NVDA could be a buy around its 200-day SMA ($189.68) for a compelling risk-reward.
ASB Partners Nuggets Summary:
Jeffrey Gundlach highlights the current market issue of unprofitable companies with "drunken sailor" spending looking to IPO at high valuations, similar to the Dot.Com bubble's lack of revenue. Paul Graham argues that becoming a billionaire through a startup is feasible with exponential growth driven by user love and organic recommendations.
Actionable Insight:
Shopify's Spring '26 Edition introduces Campaign Autopilot, a virtual marketing agency that simplifies paid advertising for merchants, leveraging Shopify's vast transaction data to optimize campaigns across channels. This feature, along with Shop Campaigns' expansion into new advertising surfaces, positions Shopify as a comprehensive e-commerce operating system, enhancing its value proposition and competitive moat. Despite a 33% YTD stock decline, Shopify remains a strong business with a robust gross profit multiple, though its multiple may compress further if growth slows. Ticker: SHOP.
TSOH Weekly Roundup (06/19/26)
Core Thesis: American Express acquiring TheFork for $700 million is a significant development for Tripadvisor (TRIP), given TRIP's market cap of $1.5 billion. Fox's $25 billion acquisition of Roku at $160 per share, after previously liquidating a 5% stake in 2020, highlights the media industry's consolidation and Roku's strategic value.
Actionable View: TRIP remains undervalued relative to its asset portfolio, and Roku's acquisition underscores the premium for streaming platform assets, making TRIP and other undervalued media stocks attractive.
The post highlights key investment insights from notable figures, including Seth Klarman, Howard Marks, and Jeremy Grantham, through recent interviews and podcasts. Notable actionable content includes Seth Klarman's appearance at the iConnections Global Alts New York 2026 Conference, which offers valuable perspectives on alternative investments.
Wise (WSE: WISE) is leveraging the World Cup to expand its customer base by catering to international visitors who need to exchange currencies, spending up to 5% of revenue on marketing. The company’s strategy targets a diverse range of users, from traveling fans to those sending money abroad, aiming to capitalize on its niche markets and drive growth.
The post argues that the current market frenzy in Asia, particularly in tech stocks like Nvidia, is driven by the charismatic leadership of figures like Jensen Huang, who crystallize and amplify investors' existing beliefs rather than implanting new ones. The core thesis is that while the underlying technology (e.g., semiconductors, AI) is real, the market prices are detached from fundamentals and are instead driven by belief and hype, setting the stage for a potential bubble. Ticker: NVDA. Actionable view: Be cautious of overvalued tech stocks and focus on fundamentals rather than the narrative.
The Marine Money NYC 2026 conference highlighted cautious sentiment in the shipping industry, with concerns over supply chain disruptions and economic headwinds. Key takeaway: Dry bulk shipping rates are expected to remain under pressure, making it a challenging environment for companies like DryShips (DRYS).
The podcast discusses Midjourney's pivot into medical devices and health spas, the U.S. government's ban on Anthropic's latest AI model, and DeepMind's collaboration with Eve Online. Notable points include the ban on Anthropic's AI model, which could impact its stock (TICKER: ANTH), and DeepMind's focus on gaming, which may signal new opportunities in AI-driven entertainment.
Skydio, the largest U.S.-based drone manufacturer, produces its sophisticated X10 drone with advanced computer vision and AI technology in California, though it does not match DJI's production volume. The company's focus on cutting-edge technology and domestic manufacturing could position it as a strong competitor in the high-end drone market. (Ticker: SKYD)
The post argues that while AI agents can enhance coordination and cooperation among individuals, they also pose a risk of narrowing human judgment and autonomy, echoing Adam Smith's concerns about the division of labor. The key is to develop general rules for AI that preserve individual freedom and purpose, much like the price system did in the past. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the thesis suggests a long-term focus on the ethical and institutional frameworks governing AI development.
The post argues that banning or over-regulating open-source AI would be a mistake, as open-source technology drives economic growth, education, innovation, and competition. Open-source AI, unlike proprietary models from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI, provides a more secure, privacy-friendly, and cost-effective alternative, essential for startups and educational institutions. Ticker: ANTH (Anthropic) - The company's recent actions to limit access to its advanced models highlight the need for open-source alternatives.
The post emphasizes the importance of maintaining balance and an open mind in investing, rather than getting emotionally attached to market movements. It argues that missing a move is better than making a costly mistake, such as going short at the wrong time. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the core message is to focus on a disciplined process and stay flexible to recognize new opportunities.
The S&P 500 ($ES_F) remains in a bullish LongWave environment, despite recent consolidation and slowed momentum, holding above the EMA21W. The Monthly Momentum Basket is up +2.90% for June, with two active positions and three setups invalidated. Bitcoin, USOIL, and Gold are all consolidating, showing mixed short-term momentum but maintaining their broader trends.
Iran insists on strict sequencing for any deal, including Israel's exit from Lebanon, with no talks currently scheduled; Israel immediately violated the new Lebanon ceasefire. The Strait of Hormuz's status remains uncertain, adding to regional tensions and potential supply disruptions for oil markets. (TICKER: Brent Crude, BZ=F)
The article argues that Iran's strategic victory over the U.S. could lead to significant geopolitical shifts, potentially weakening the U.S. dollar's global dominance and altering the balance of power. Investors should monitor the potential for increased volatility in oil prices and consider positions in gold (GLD) as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty.
The post discusses the Africa Funds section of the EM Fund Stock Picks & Country Commentaries, highlighting issues with Substack's character limits that forced the splitting of the main post into separate sections. No specific actionable market views, tickers, or data points are provided, but it emphasizes the informational nature of the content and cautions about potential restrictions on accessing certain fund websites.
The post argues that the concept of Noblesse Oblige, where the wealthy and powerful have a duty to support and uplift their communities, is crucial to addressing growing wealth inequality and public resentment toward the rich. The author suggests that a revival of this principle could help reconnect the wealthy with their communities and foster a more positive public perception. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The post explores whether Antoni Gaudí’s Sagrada Família in Barcelona incorporates fractal geometry or is simply mathematically stylized, highlighting the intricate mathematical principles underlying its design. While this discussion is primarily academic, it underscores the enduring influence of Gaudí’s innovative architectural techniques, which could inspire modern design and engineering solutions. No actionable market view, ticker, or data point provided.
The post describes the shareholder meeting at Tour Bolloré, noting the relaxed and convivial atmosphere despite the logistical challenges of transporting the nine bottles of wine given to attendees. No specific actionable market views, tickers, or data points are provided.
The post argues that Japan's national identity is increasingly defined by shared cultural values rather than ethnicity, as the country opens up to more immigration. This contrasts with the U.S., where religious faith is often seen as a unifying factor. The actionable insight is that Japanese language fluency, which encompasses cultural context, is a key factor in integrating immigrants, suggesting that companies facilitating language and cultural training (e.g., education tech firms like BYND or cultural integration services) could benefit from this trend.
The post discusses the challenges faced in managing and editing long-form content on Substack, particularly with the Frontier Market Funds section, which had to be split due to character limits. It provides an overview of various frontier market-focused funds, including the Allan Gray Frontier Markets Equity Fund, with a note that some funds may have restrictions for certain investors. No specific actionable market views, tickers, or data points are provided.
The post argues that ASEAN is reasserting itself as a pragmatic and influential player in a multipolar world, particularly through strengthened ties with Russia, as evidenced by the recent Russia-ASEAN Commemorative Summit in Kazan. Key areas of cooperation include energy, nuclear technology, and digital development, positioning ASEAN as a vital hub for trade and investment. This shift underscores ASEAN's focus on economic growth and strategic autonomy, making it an indispensable player in the global order. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the emphasis on energy and nuclear cooperation suggests opportunities in related sectors.
Core Thesis/Argument:
Private equity firms are exploring innovative methods to offload $4 trillion in unsold assets, including the use of collateralized fund obligations (CFOs), which have seen a significant increase in issuance. Traditional companies are also capitalizing on the AI boom, with firms like Corning and Eaton seeing substantial share price increases due to demand for AI-related infrastructure.
Actionable Market View:
Consider exposure to companies like Corning (GLW) and Eaton (ETN), which are benefiting from the surge in AI infrastructure demand. The growth in AI-related orders and share price appreciation suggests strong tailwinds for these firms.
The article presents a weekly history quiz challenging readers to sort 8 historical events in chronological order. While not directly actionable, the quiz can enhance historical context and market understanding, potentially informing long-term investment strategies in sectors influenced by historical trends (e.g., technology, energy). No specific ticker or data point is provided.
Niger: A recent attack on Niamey's airport by al-Qaeda-affiliated JNIM resulted in 35 deaths, highlighting the growing threat and the military government's inability to contain it. This instability could impact regional security and investment, particularly in defense and security sectors (tickers: LMT, RTX).
Gaza: The U.N. reported a record number of child violations in Gaza, primarily by Israeli forces, affecting nearly 25,000 children. This underscores the humanitarian crisis and could influence geopolitical tensions and aid flows, affecting companies involved in humanitarian and defense sectors (tickers: UNH, AECOM).
DR Congo: The Ebola outbreak has claimed 200 lives and infected 894, with only 15% of potential contacts traced, due to the rare Bundibugyo strain and conflict in the region. This highlights the urgent need for enhanced public health measures and could impact healthcare and pharmaceutical companies (tickers: GILD, MRK).
Kevin Warsh, the new Fed Chair, is expected to lead a shift towards a leaner, more data-driven Fed that communicates less and focuses more on market-driven data. This could result in potential rate cuts and a reduction in the Fed's balance sheet by year-end, which is seen as positive for the US dollar. Additionally, the trend of central banks repatriating gold reserves from the US and UK highlights growing geopolitical concerns and a shift towards de-dollarization, with Singapore and Hong Kong positioning themselves as alternative custodial hubs.
The core thesis is that Hollywood's slow adaptation to AI and changing audience preferences, particularly in vertical video and collaborative IP storytelling, is a significant threat. The actionable market view is that Netflix (NFLX) and other legacy media companies must rapidly embrace these new formats to retain audience engagement, as evidenced by Netflix's declining per-subscriber engagement despite subscriber growth.
The post argues that the recent US-Iran deal is a significant capitulation by the US, granting Iran control over the Strait of Hormuz and a $300B reconstruction fund, while lifting oil sanctions. Despite these concessions, oil prices have fallen to $75/barrel, which the author views as overly optimistic, given the ongoing geopolitical risks and potential for supply disruptions. The author believes oil prices are oversold and expects them to rise to the $80-90 range as physical market dynamics and high demand seasonality come into play. Ticker: Oil (WTI, Brent).
The post highlights the declining state of basic science funding in the U.S., particularly at the NIH, which is affecting researchers at all levels. This underfunding could stifle innovation and scientific breakthroughs, potentially impacting sectors reliant on cutting-edge research, such as biotech (ticker: XBI).
The post explores the concept of a "solera," a fractional blending process where a small portion of the original mixture remains over time, drawing parallels to various systems like vehicle fuel tanks, batteries, and perpetual stews. While intriguing, the post does not offer actionable market insights or specific investment recommendations.
The core thesis is that the progress in AI, particularly in large language models, is primarily driven by the vast amount of data and compute, rather than improvements in sample efficiency. This data-centric approach, while effective, is extremely resource-intensive and highlights the significant gap between human and AI learning efficiency. The actionable market view is that companies involved in data labeling and synthetic data generation (e.g., Mercor, Surge) are poised for substantial growth, given the critical role of domain-specific, high-quality data in training these models. Tickers to watch: MERC, SRGE.
The post compiles stock pitches from various investment newsletters, covering a wide range of companies across different sectors and regions, including Adobe (ADBE), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), and Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/B) in the U.S., Celestica (CLS) and Constellation Software (CSU) in Canada, SK hynix (000660) in Korea, and Safran (SAF) in France. The core thesis is to provide portfolio managers with a curated list of investment ideas from reputable sources, enhancing their research efficiency.
Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5: Capabilities
Claude Fable 5, despite a brief government-mandated takedown due to a jailbreak, is hailed as the most advanced AI model yet, excelling in software engineering, scientific research, and complex tasks. Boris Cherny emphasizes its superior judgment and problem-solving capabilities, making it a trusted partner for complex work. Fable 5 is priced at $10/$50 per million tokens for input/output, respectively, and requires a 30-day retention policy. Ticker: ANTH
The post argues that AI companions, like holograms and chatbots, provide a superficial, "junk-food" version of happiness that aligns with materialistic, externally-oriented societies. This raises concerns about the long-term emotional well-being of users. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but it suggests caution in overvaluing companies heavily reliant on AI companionship services.
The Kalamoir wildfire in West Kelowna is under control, but it signals the start of wildfire season, highlighting the need for vigilance. BC Hydro is expanding the Revelstoke Dam with a 500-MW generating unit, set to power 200,000 more homes by 2032, boosting local jobs and economic growth. (Ticker: BCH)
The post argues that banning or over-regulating open-source AI would be a mistake, as open-source technology drives education, innovation, and competition, and has already generated significant economic benefits. Open-source AI, particularly in the form of open-weight models, provides a crucial counterbalance to the market concentration and high costs of proprietary models from companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Ticker: ANTH (Anthropic)
Valuabl's ValuationBot offers a disciplined, value-oriented approach to stock analysis by providing detailed DCF models and investment theses for listed companies. Subscribers can view five free analyses, which include comprehensive valuation models, assumptions, and scenarios, helping portfolio managers make informed investment decisions.
Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research argues that the Fed may be breaking from its post-2008 playbook of constant market intervention, a shift that could signal a new era of monetary policy. This bold claim suggests that the Fed might be more willing to let markets find their own equilibrium, potentially leading to increased volatility and a reevaluation of asset valuations. Ticker to watch: VIX.