[dry-run excerpt] Last week’s guest on the podcast was Sam Newman , who had released a book I’ve personally long awaited titled Building Resilient Distributed Systems . It’s an especially timely book for many of us software engineers, as we’re seeing more outages with nearly all services and systems – much of it caused by more code deploys thanks to AI agents writing more code; and more bugs causing more incidents …
[dry-run excerpt] 👋 Hey there, I’m Lenny. Each week, I share deeply researched product, growth, and career advice. For more: Lenny’s Jobs | Lenny’s Podcast | Lennybot | How I AI | Become an AI-Native Builder and my other favorite AI/PM courses . Subscribe now P.S. Get a full free year of Cursor, Notion, Replit, Lovable, Wispr Flow, Linear, ElevenLabs, Factory, PostHog, Granola, Brain.fm, Waking Up, and more, by bec…
[dry-run excerpt] It used to be that when you showed someone a new benchmark, you’d start off by telling them three things: 1) What the task is. 2) What solve % the top model gets right now. 3) What solve % a human would get. Today, especially in many coding-related tasks, the era of the human baseline is over. We’re not going to be asking each other what a human gets on new benchmarks in these categories because i…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi! Welcome to a subscriber-only edition of Asian Century Stocks – a newsletter about Asian value stocks. For a complete list of all previous posts, check out the Table of Contents . Disclaimer : This is my personal opinion, written for a general readership. It isn’t financial advice, isn’t tailored to anyone’s circumstances, and I’m not a licensed financial adviser. Do your own research and consu…
[dry-run excerpt] Lennar has changed how it builds and how it holds land. It builds a house in 116 days, about half the time it took in early 2023, and it owns fewer than one in forty of the 487,961 homesites it counts, a land position nearly as light as that of NVR, Inc. (NYSE: NVR). It paid for both with its gross margin on home sales, which fell from 27.5% in FY2022 to 15.8% in Q3 FY2026 (Jun-Aug 2026), below th…
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part One of the Latticework Business Intelligence audio program on Lennar, from Latticework by MOI Global. It is the first of two audio programs that accompany our research report on Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), and it is the story of the company, told for a general audience. The account is built from documented scenes, with the people named, the dates given, and the participants quoted…
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part Two of the Latticework Business Intelligence audio program on Lennar, from Latticework by MOI Global. It is the second of two audio programs that accompany our research report on Lennar Corporation (NYSE: LEN), and it is the deep dive, made for professional investors and for anyone who analyzes homebuilders for a living. It assumes the ordi… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Victoria’s Secret cut promotions, went back to glamour and full-price selling, and the stock went from around $15 to around $100 (yes, some people are making multibaggers looking at lingerie while you keep looking at industrials). Everybody wants to own that trend now that it has already worked. I’d rather own the version of it nobody is looking at. That version sits inside Playboy. Yes, the iconi…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the 11th edition of the Fund Letters Round-Up newsletter. It’s exactly what it says on the tin - a curation of quarterly letters from a variety of fund managers, especially emerging fund managers. Not every Q3 letter is released in the first 14 days of October. However, below are 54 letters to get stuck into right away. Visit the Quarterly Letters page on the website to see the latest l…
[dry-run excerpt] This is the second part of my mini-series on Rollins (ROL) vs. Verisure (VSURE) . I published the first part last week, where I discussed Rollins’ current situation, why I believe its business model is more fragile than many believe it is, and shared at what price I would consider starting a position. I’d recommend reading that part first as many of the comparisons below will build on it. In this …
[dry-run excerpt] H&R REIT’s (TSX:HR.UN) strategic plan correctly recognized that the complexity of its diverse portfolio resulted in a discounted valuation. Meaningful progress has been made in the past 5 years, but the anticipated benefits have been lost to adverse market developments, a downturn in the US Sunbelt residential market, and a crash in the Toronto housing market. The plan’s originally envisioned 5-ye…
[dry-run excerpt] Two weeks ago, I announced the first price increase since last summer. With just 48 hours to go, here’s what you need to know. Join before October 15th and lock in your price for as long as your subscription remains active: $50/month $400/year $800 founding membership From October 15th, those prices become $75/month, $450/year and $1,100 for founding membership. If you’re already a paid subscriber…
[dry-run excerpt] The biotech sell-off continued yesterday. Localized pockets of the market continue to get smoked. Since mid August, biotech has seen the largest dollar reduction in gross exposure among all U.S. subsectors. The cumulative % reduction over eight weeks is the largest in more than five years. (Goldman) For specialist biotech investors, the market has turned upside down. A major degrossing event looks…
[dry-run excerpt] The rise in yields over the last few weeks to cycle highs have brought renewed attention to what is normally a pretty sleepy bond market. “The House” certainly didn’t help the case by making calls o… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Exports across the region have been extraordinarily strong through September. Along with trade, inflation data for China show external factors remain the strongest dynamic in China's overall cycle. YoY money supply growth in Japan slowed last month.
[dry-run excerpt] That external factors continue to be the driving force of China's cycle dynamics was once again evident in the strength of both exports and PPI inflation in September. The combination puts a floor under overall nominal growth, and makes it unlikely that domestic policy becomes more aggressive.
[dry-run excerpt] Overview Caution Ahead of Chinese Data: Investors are exercising restraint ahead of the upcoming release of China’s September consumer price index (CPI), producer price index (PPI), and trade data, which are being watched closely due to weak domestic demand trends. US Inflation and Federal Reserve Expectations: Markets are holding a cautious stance as they await upcoming US inflation reports, whic…
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[dry-run excerpt] Share Hello, Haymakers: It has long been the contention of this newsletter that one of the best ways to consistently generate profits in the commodity market is to be a buyer when the consensus is very bearish. We realize that’s Contrarian Investing 101, but it amazes us how often this is ignored in the futures market. Of course, it also has a significant bearing on the related natural-resource eq…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now Back in 2025, I shorted Nvidia on the back of the DeepSeek LLM model - but fortunately covered at a profit. It seemed very logical to me that the appearance of a much cheaper LLM model should be deflationary across the whole AI stack. But this analysis was wrong. Today, we are seeing another sell off in tech, on the back of announcement that Chinese chip company CXMT has made a break…
[dry-run excerpt] Last week, the Nasdaq sold off nearly 2% on FT headlines that OpenAI’s annualized revenues were $20bn less than expected. As it turned out, this was just investors getting confused on the difference between “net” vs “gross” revenues… …which got us concerned that if the investors who “underwrite” the AI Trade (which is now half the Market!), don’t understand what they own and can’t do basic mafs th…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi, One more note on your free months, because the Discord has changed a lot since I first sent the link. As a paid subscriber, your first 3 months in the Guardian Discord are free: Claim your 3 free months Checkout should show… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] The stock is down about a third over the past year. The company makes family and faith-friendly content that many people feel Hollywood stopped making. My base case is $8 a share, about double today’s price. The member count is growing fast, and the market is pricing the business cheaply. The name, the numbers and the model are just below for free subscribers. Ideas like this hit the Guardian Disc…
[dry-run excerpt] Given the private market valuation of OpenAI and Anthropic, it does feel a little strange for me to claim the labs may be better business than appreciated by investors. But I do notice a persistent skepticism among many investors about the labs business model. While there are indeed some key open questions that can keep the range of outcomes for labs wider than the publicly listed big tech compani…
[dry-run excerpt] Next Monday, two prices for the same stock become one. Right now one version trades on Nasdaq at around $16. The other version, the exact same security with the same rights and the same dividend, trades over the counter at $11.74. On Monday, October 19, the over-the-counter shares convert into the Nasdaq shares one for one. That’s a 36% gap with a hard date attached. There’s no rumor, takeover bid…
[dry-run excerpt] This post is adapted from my September letter to clients of KNA Capital Management and has been edited for length. You can read the full September letter and disclosures . Higher rates, higher hurdles One of the major shifts in September was the spike in long-term interest rates. After a 40+ year decline that ended in the “ZIRP” (zero interest rate policy) era during COVID, interest rates have mar…
[dry-run excerpt] The Acquirer’s Multiple® Small and Micro Cap screen searches a less heavily followed part of the market, where limited analyst coverage and lower institutional ownership can sometimes allow significant valuation gaps to develop. This week’s screen contains 198 companies , with a median Acquirer’s Multiple of approximately 9.1x . Of those, 77 trade below 8x and 39 trade below 5x . Where the Cheapes…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed Cash-Secured Puts Explained: Get Paid to Buy Stocks at a Discount. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: So there’s several different strategies of option strategies that we utilise at the Value Options Letter. So the first one is cash secured put. This is probably the most common strategy that we’ll utilise. So basi…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Jeff Weniger discussed Rising Bond Yields: The Biggest Threat to Stocks? Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Jeff] I mean, you know, it’s the problem with with many of those concepts is you try to inflate it all away. But we already have an inflation. Is quagmire the right word? It’s an inflation. It’s problematic inflation. And I mean, you know,…
[dry-run excerpt] Sorry for missing last week, extended travel got in the way. This issue is meatier to make up for it. A few giants held up the S&P 500 in September while 391 of its stocks fell, and Ben Carlson shows the worst bond run on record. Fund letters come from both sides of the chip trade. The One to Save is a guide to maintenance spending, the money a company must spend just to stay where it is. Ideas A …
[dry-run excerpt] “The investor with a stock portfolio having such book values behind it can take a much more independent and detached view of stock-market fluctuations than those who have paid high multipliers of both earnings and tangible assets. As long as the earning power of his holdings remains satisfactory, he can give as little attention as he pleases to the vaga… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] The AK Medical logo on the front of its Beijing building. The company makes artificial hip and knee joints and 3D-printed orthopedic implants, sold in China and a growing list of overseas markets. Welcome to another edition of Giles Capital Weekly. Global stocks slid as the AI trade wobbled, with Asian tech cracking while Treasuries rallied on haven dema… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Meta’s Muse Wonder is seeing a stronger initial spending response than Muse Spark 1.3 within our tracking. On the first day after launch, Wonder’s daily spend reached $62.9K, compared with $28.7K for Spark 1.3 on its corresponding day. That puts Wonder at 2.2× Spark 1.3, even though Wonder’s full-day data is still incomplete. For access, please contact [email protected]. TickerTrends Enterpris…
[dry-run excerpt] “There are three things in the world that deserve no mercy: hypocrisy, fraud, and tyranny.” – Frederick William Robertson During the first six months of 2026, European buyers gorged on practically every liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo Russia’s Yamal plant could produce. Of the 140 ships that set sail from that Arctic facility, 136 offloaded their life-nourishing bounty in Europe, with France, Be…
[dry-run excerpt] Word Count: 5,618 words, Reading Time: 27 minutes. Not financial advice, do your own due diligence, for entertainment purposes only. Subscribers: Substack is telling me this post is too long for email so please load in browser if the bottom cuts off before my signature. With so much going on in the biotech world and the general weakness across the biotech market I thought this would be as good of …
[dry-run excerpt] Hi, folks! I know it’s been a while, but I’m still alive and will still be blogging! It’s been a crazy couple months -- since my last post, I started working at Anthropic on RL for chip design , I’ve spent a month in SF, I’ve fully moved into a new apartment in lower Manhattan, and I’ve not had too much time to write. But I figured I’d take the long weekend to sit back down at a keyboard and get b…
[dry-run excerpt] This post is a bit different from my usual deep dives. It’s closer to an evening of rambling that turned into something I wanted to write down. When the news broke today that Netflix had secured exclusive rights to every match of the 2030 World Cup in Spain, I shared a quick reaction in our community, and the thought stayed with me through dinner and well into the evening. A few numbers from Netfl…
[dry-run excerpt] Dear compounders, Recently I started this series for a very practical reason. Ember Infrastructure Management put a 615p per share proposal on the table for Ashtead Technology, a company I own and have written about at length. That forced me to think about something most long-term investors prefer to postpone: what would I actually do with the money if I end up selling? I didn’t want a deal to mak…
[dry-run excerpt] Looking at the most accurate investment banks and their estimates of CPI, it appears it will come in slightly hot, but not enough to matter resulting in a slightly bullish outcome. MU, NVDA, and SPCX are the most crowded retail longs. The good news is that our bearish MU signal has passed. Everyone’s favorite stock NVDA is on its linear trend line with the option signal flagging bullish. VIX conti…
[dry-run excerpt] Each week, I highlight some of the most compelling investment research published over the previous seven days, drawing on academic papers, industry research, and investment blogs. For those interested in digging deeper, links to the original publications are provided. Crypto Jump Risk Premiums in Cryptocurrency Returns (Lee and Wang) In crypto, greater exposure to positive crypto-market jumps pred…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe to watch the full Daily Update video Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] The US midterm elections take place on November 3, 2026. While elections attract considerable investor attention, it is less clear how much they affect short-term stock market returns. To investigate, I study daily US equity market returns from 1926 through 2025, comparing market performance around midterm elections with presidential election years and odd-numbered years. The results suggest that …
[dry-run excerpt] Julian di Giovanni The AI boom is showing up in different corners of the U.S. economy, including international trade. Imports of semiconductors, servers, and computing equipment have climbed sharply yet the U.S. current account deficit has been largely unchanged. To better understand how the AI boom has not substantially affected the trade balance, consider that the current account is dictated by …
[dry-run excerpt] Ansar Allah continues to score as they trade tit-for-tat strikes with the Saudis. Several top American and European executives attended Riyadh's WPC Energy Congress remotely. Reports say Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman is shuttling "between heavily guarded palaces equipped with bunkers and is guarded by a handpicked security team." Ground combat continues in Yemen.
[dry-run excerpt] Yesterday, my nervous daughter rolled up her sleeve at the pediatrician’s office for her flu shot. But instead of rushing, the twentysomething medical assistant paused to explain that the shot would give her a superhero shield. When we got home, what did she do? She ran straight to her room for her superhero cape (and princess dress, of course) and woke up this morning still wearing it. To everyon…
[dry-run excerpt] The Apple Homeview is official, and the question is how big is the addressable market for expensive devices based on subpar AI.
[dry-run excerpt] “There are three things in the world that deserve no mercy: hypocrisy, fraud, and tyranny.” – Frederick William Robertson During the first six months of 2026, European buyers gorged on practically every liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargo Russia’s Yamal plant could produce. Of the 140 ships that set sail from that Arctic facility, 136 offloaded their life-nourishing bounty in Europe, with France, Be…
[dry-run excerpt] US ‘allies’ to continue to pay the price as hopes are pinned on a post-Putin crisis in Moscow.
[dry-run excerpt] Michael Hudson gives a terse takedown on how the fake economics Nobel prize shores up destructive elite-serving orthodoxies.
[dry-run excerpt] Large urban agglomerations are engines of national economic growth. The fuels that power these engines are the transportation infrastructure and mass transit, supported with enabling land use and development control regulations, value capture and revenue sharing, and institutional architecture. This is the topic of the post. Such urban agglomerations are characterised by clusters of dense, special…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Khanh Vu Duc Vietnam President To Lam with Governor General of Canada Louise Arbour. Photo from VNA For years, Washington and Beijing have pushed the international system toward a binary logic: choose sides and accept the consequences. As the US-China rivalry intensifies, middle powers are increasingly portrayed as countries that must either align wit… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] La Via Campesina, a global peasant alliance with millions of members, will stage a protest in Bangkok this week to oppose the meetings of the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Photo: Khaosod English Share As the 2026 IMF-World Bank Group Annual Meetings unfold in Bangkok from October 12 to 18, Thai farmers and international peasant groups are staging coordinated demonstrat…
[dry-run excerpt] Earlier today I published this week’s episode of Sharp China, in which we discussed the EU-China trade talks, Xi’s health and succession, and the possibility that the Trump Administration has hit “peak dove” on China. You can listen to it here . In this issue: 1. National Health and Wellness Conference 2. Xi meets with leaders from Botswana and Togo 3. Cold water on the EU-China trade outcomes? 4.…
[dry-run excerpt] DR Congo A former president of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Joseph Kabila, has announced the formation of a coalition of political and military organizations opposed to the current government, which includes the powerful M23 rebel group that controls significant territory in the east of the country. Kabila, who is also based in the east, said at a news conference that the alliance would…
[dry-run excerpt] The nuclear revolution transformed the conditions of great-power warfare, yet military institutions continue to pursue decisive conventional victory. The phantom limb of traditional warfare survives through cultural admiration for martial courage and institutional commitment to military superiority, even as the pursuit of victory risks triggering nuclear catastrophe.
[dry-run excerpt] Complexity of the payments system means that currencies like the yuan are not benefitting from sanctions as much as widely believed.
[dry-run excerpt] AMD CEO Lisa Su is emphatic and optimistic about the current demand for AI. “We’re in a world where computing equates to intelligence, and if you have a chance to be more intelligent, why wouldn’t you try to get more capability?” she said Monday during her OCP Global Summit keynote in San Jose. “Every time I look at these [demand] charts, they tend to keep going up and to the right.” Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Martin Leibowitz was a giant of investment research. When he died in May at age 89, his work had reshaped how the world prices and manages bonds. Equally remarkable, in a field where outsize egos are common, he was a thoughtful gentleman. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, “He was a humble man, with little to be humble about.” Over a five-decade career, Leibowitz turned bond investing from art into …
[dry-run excerpt] It has been roughly a year since my last dedicated post on this question . Its first sentence has not changed: I happily admit I am deeply confused about consciousness. It would have been nice if a year had allowed us to make progress on this and the related questions. Looking back, we have made little progress. We have people, often the same people, making similar arguments. The post from last ye…
[dry-run excerpt] How to justify to yourself and your neighbors not getting rid of most of the leaves in your yard: because soil health.
[dry-run excerpt] original article at https://kelownagrapevine.ca/super-el-nino-2026-kelowna-okanagan.html Super El Niño 2026: What It Could Mean for Kelowna and the Okanagan Kelowna Grapevine | October, 2026 | By Paul One of the strongest El Niño events on record could bring a warmer, drier winter to the Okanagan, putting added pressure on orchards, vineyards, water supplies and wildfire conditions in 2027. A Supe…
[dry-run excerpt] If there is someone out there with more research at their fingertips than psychologist , I haven’t met them. He is the rare combination of extremely prolific and extremely interesting. (My hypothesis: he has an identical twin sharing the workload. 🤔) I just tore through his new book, Vibe: The Secret of Strong Connections in a Lonely World . One of the arresting ideas early in Adam’s new book is t…
[dry-run excerpt] H&R REIT’s (TSX:HR.UN) strategic plan correctly recognized that the complexity of its diverse portfolio resulted in a discounted valuation. Meaningful progress has been made in the past 5 years, but the anticipated benefits have been lost to adverse market developments, a downturn in the US Sunbelt residential market, and a crash in the Toronto housing market. The plan’s originally envisioned 5-ye…
[dry-run excerpt] By Paul Mueller, AIER’s Daily Economy October marked the eighteenth anniversary of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), when Congress authorized the Treasury Department to spend up to $700 billion to buy or insure “ troubled assets .” At the time, the size of this rescue package was unbelievable. Since then, we have seen multiple larger stimulus packages: one in 2009 and several in 2020 and 2…