The most contrarian call is in [54], where the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) warns that an AI crash could trigger an investment drought, economic contraction, and even a systemic crisis. This stands in stark contrast to the dominant bullish narratives and even cautious optimism, framing AI not just as a potential bubble but as a systemic risk to global financial stability.
[dry-run excerpt] Human Agent in the loop I dislike the phrase “human in the loop” because it cedes authority to the machines. Let’s flip the narrative. It’s our loop, we work the same way we always have, now we recruit agents to join the team. An agent-assisted process need not be a black box that takes in prompts and emits features. [...] Let’s do agentic software development like that. Not as a loop we’ve been e…
[dry-run excerpt] Hack Your Summer I learned about this initiative from DJ Patil this morning: It’s a 4-week, high-velocity production sprint for undergraduate students, graduate students, and recent graduates who want to build something real this summer. You’ll learn how to identify a project, make steady progress, get support from mentors and peers, and create tangible, public-facing work you can actually show fu…
[dry-run excerpt] A trend we continue to see in open model releases is that the ecosystem is becoming more diverse, with an increasing number of organizations releasing a wide range of models. A year ago, open artifacts and the open model landscape more broadly were dominated by a handful of (Chinese) players. This has shifted, with us increasingly featuring more niche companies all over the world. While it is hard…
[dry-run excerpt] Andrew Ambrosino leads development of the Codex desktop app at OpenAI. Nearly 100% of OpenAI employees—not just engineers—now use Codex weekly. A lifelong builder with a background spanning engineering, design, product management, and founding companies, he is now responsible for turning the Codex desktop experience into what he calls “the best desktop app that has ever existed, full stop.” Listen…
[dry-run excerpt] Looking back on the last three days, there has actually been quite a bit of reassuring AI headlines and talking points. Exponential View: AI demand is “revenue-validated”. Generative AI ecosystem revenue has already surpassed $175 billion annualized. It is just about covering the infrastructure bill. The investment debate is not ‘is there demand?’ but ‘can falling token prices drive enough volume …
[dry-run excerpt] ✳️ Welcome to our 11th issue on activist happenings around the world! ✳️ In this issue, we will discuss Air Water (Japan), McCormick & Company, Rohto Pharmaceutical, Segro PLC in UK and Zoom Communications, the ubiquitous communication platform that is supposedly disrupted by AI. ✳️ AI remains the biggest topic in the markets. Is the party over? Is the party still going strong? When will this havo…
[dry-run excerpt] One of the best reasons to run a blog like this when you manage capital on your own, as I do, is that public exposure forces you to question yourself constantly. And that makes you a better investor. Bayer is probably the most paradigmatic position on the blog in that sense. I wrote a full thesis at a time (Dec 2023) when almost all of Bayer's problems were already on the table. The stock was deep…
[dry-run excerpt] Earlier today, the serial acquirer we profiled two weeks ago announced a new acquisition. The deal is strongly accretive to EBITA and drives 9% growth compared to the recurring group EBITA generated in FY25. Accounting for the Q1 M&A activity, it’s an uplift of about 7% to the recently disclosed RTM figure. It looks to be a company that’s become increasingly profitability-focused with EBITA margin…
[dry-run excerpt] The Latticework Monday Morning Briefing is a research-based, data-driven slide presentation sent on a separate mailing list (complimentary to members). If you do not wish to receive it, opt out here . The new Briefing is embedded in full below for members. As always, it runs from a weekly scoreboard through our idea-generation screens, market valuation and positioning, and a macro and fixed-income…
[dry-run excerpt] I found a way to access Bloomberg’s no.1 competitor for 90% less. Here’s how → Subscribe now Today’s business was founded in 1956 and has operated successfully ever since. It sells branded products that you’ve almost certainly purchased, let alone heard of. The market is currently pricing it as a melting ice cube that is already dead. We can purchase the tangible assets for almost half price and g…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to another edition of the Capital Employed Newsletter. For this edition we have removed the paywall so free subscribers can see what they’re missing. Enjoy. If you’re starting research on a company make sure to check out the Company Index . This is a great place to start researching a stock. There are nearly 2,000 stocks listed so far, with more added every month. Subscribe now Latest inte…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the one hundred and first edition of BWM (Bi-Weekly Munchies) … BWM is the largest bi weekly compilation of investment write ups, articles related to investing/finance, interviews, audio formats, videos, etc. from Substack, YouTube, Spotify, and other corners of the internet! "From $100K to $1M" & More. is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, conside…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi All, Welcome to our brief overview of portfolio news from the past few days. Subscribe now Fiscal.ai is our go-to platform when we need granular information to analyze a company. Quick and easy access to KPIs. Get 15% off through our affiliate link . Alphabet Waymo's Global Blueprint: Waymo has officially registered "Waymo Germany GmbH" with a business address listed at Google’s Munich office. …
[dry-run excerpt] Chinelo Havaianas Brasil Logo - Havaianas - 1998 Alpargatas is a historic footwear manufacturing company (oldest company still traded in the Brazilian exchange), with a rich history in Brazil and Argentina, creating category-defining brands in both countries. Like any old company, its portfolio has changed a lot over the years. Today, Alpargatas’ only relevant asset is Havaianas, the largest flip-…
[dry-run excerpt] In my Physical AI primer I argued that the theme is everywhere and badly understood , that it is not a synonym for humanoid robot s, and that the value migrates to whoever supplies the layers shared across every embodiment . I closed with a principle and a promise. The principle: own the layers that monetise every embodiment, avoid the layers that require you to pick the winning body. The promise:…
[dry-run excerpt] Two years of Treasure Hunting as a paid blog. That also means two years as a full-time investor. First of all, a big thank you to all the paid subscribers who have made this dream possible. I am very grateful that I get to do what I love for a living. To me, investing is the greatest work I could possibly pursue. To me, investing is not just about money. Money just happens to be the scoreboard we …
[dry-run excerpt] We held our third bi-monthly member call on Thursday. Several instructors from the just-completed Wide-Moat Investing Summit delivered “elevator pitch” versions of ideas they had presented at the summit. A single theme ran through most of the pitches: high-quality businesses the market has marked down on an artificial-intelligence narrative the presenters consider either overblown or simply irrele…
[dry-run excerpt] Summary Brief comments on the Venezuela earthquake and final look at Colombian election/market impact. Buy-and-hold portfolio: 11 buys, 2 sales this month. On when I sell and thoughts on managing an overall index-styled portfolio. Making the detailed case for new longs including MarketAxess and Boston Scientific. Also adding to JD, Walmex, and plenty of oth… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] As we wrap up the quarter, expectations remain exceptionally high, with the market pricing in roughly 22% EPS growth after earnings estimates were revised approximately 4% higher over the past three months. Micron’s results reinforced exceptionally strong demand across the memory ecosystem but also renewed questions about how much further the rally can run. Beneath the surface, market leadership c…
[dry-run excerpt] The AI mania built up over the last couple of months is largely reliant on a relatively simple premise - folks will pay nearly anything to get their hands on AI tools and the compute needed to power … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] China industrial profits in May rose 20% YoY, boosted by upstream industries. Even so, overall profits have to still to break through the top of the post-2022 range. In Japan, retail sales were strong in May. Consumer confidence in Taiwan improved in June as price expectations fell.
[dry-run excerpt] Two of the big questions for markets in the region are 1) the implications for monetary policy as oil prices fall, and 2) what is happening with China's cycle, and what does that – and the strengthening of the USD – mean for the USD.
[dry-run excerpt] It’s America’s 250th birthday this week which will be the highlight for most of us with cookouts, pool and beach time, and a few libations with friends and family. But before we get to that celebrat… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Executive summary: Crypto weakness does not invalidate the longer-term debasement thesis. Rather, it highlights the importance of distinguishing between structural demand for monetary hedges and the cyclical liquidity impulse that drives risk appetite. Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to Fed-led Global Liquidity, which is currently slowing, while gold appears better supported by PBoC liquidity, re…
[dry-run excerpt] Overview Asian stocks closed mixed on Friday; in the red were Japan, S Korea, Taiwan, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Indonesia and Thailand. In the green were Malaysia, Philippines, Vietnam and India. US/Iran peace deal in question after Iran launched a drone assault targeting Bahrain while a ship in the Strait of Hormuz separately came under attack yesterday, likely Tehran’s response to overnight a…
[dry-run excerpt] From “ Ollie’s: Good Stuff Cheap ” (January 2022): “Mark Butler rang the register when Ollie’s completed its first sale back in Mechanicsburg in July 1982, and he rang the opening bell in New York City 33 years later when the company went public in July 2015 … This seems like a uniquely tough situation as it relates to ‘key man risk’ (given the execution risk inherent to retail generally, and in t…
[dry-run excerpt] Below are several high-upside setups for your watchlist. Each offers a compelling risk-to-reward profile with clear triggers for action and so I suggest reading. I have also attached my current trading positions. Format for what is covered in this weekly preview: Alerts and stop-loss information Recent examples showing how to use the Trading Ideas post Trade Ideas Summary Table Current trading acc…
[dry-run excerpt] The market has decided Fox ($FOXA) blundered by paying $22 billion for Roku ($ROKU), and it has cut Fox roughly 25% in the two weeks since the deal was announced. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong (see his write up here) . His case: Roku controls about 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, roughly 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the front doo…
[dry-run excerpt] As we write this, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are back at it. Putting that itty bitty hiccup to peace aside, 🙄, the big news this week was inflation. Headline PCE inflation accelerated to its highest reading in roughly three years. For its part, core PCE remained around 3.4% — the persistent f*cker. Those damn RX fees are contributing to core services increases, 😉. As noted …
[dry-run excerpt] On June 23, 2026, Cali-based neurology-focused genomic medicine company Sangamo Therapeutics ($SGMO) (the “debtor” and along with three wholly-owned non-debtor subsidiaries, the “company”) filed a chapter 11 sale case — with two stalking horses teed up! — in the District of Delaware ( Judge Goldblatt ). You know we love these science-y cases!! Actually, in case you don’t really remember: we don’t.…
[dry-run excerpt] Instead of writing my personal musings on this Sunday, I would actually suggest you read these two pieces that expanded my understanding of the world: “ How funerals keep Africa poor ”, and “ Why kinship societies kill their old ” They are both quite thought provoking and illuminating in a way that is hard to appreciate about the reality of living in a scarcity society. I highly recommend these pi…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Derrick Treadwell on Unsplash Key Statistics EV/EBIT = 15.6x ROE = N/A* Debt/Equity = N/A* FCF Yield = 4.7% Dividend Yield = 2.45% Market Cap = $28.45 billion * Otis has more liabilities than assets T… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Castlelake vs. Easyjet The UK is a fertile hunting ground for Private Equity these days. I had written about KKR wanting to buy DCC and EQT going for Intertek . Another potentially interesting story is Easyjet, where a US investor with the name Castlelake is trying to buy Easyjet and has increased the bid price now for a fourth time. Easyjet’s board however seems to be less keen to sell compared t…
[dry-run excerpt] Whenever Ben Evans drops a new slide deck , you should read it (AI, AI & AI) Andrew Brown (Dynastie Capital) on Virtu Financial The always excellent Sector Stories Substack with a deep dive into Sika A superb summary of Elon Musk’s cult capitalism 10 Year anniversary letter of Value Shop Bireme A nice and simple portfolio construction approach from European Hidden Gem Stocks Substack Unfortunately…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Value Options Letter and Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Tobias discussed How Cash-Secured Puts Really Work. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Tim] Absolutely. So it’s a short sample. I mean, I think we launched 45, 50 days ago, something like that. And we’re really thankful for all the support that we’ve gotten. But one of the things that Toby and I are big on …
[dry-run excerpt] David Einhorn reported an equity portfolio valued at approximately $3.19 billion in the latest reported quarter, reflecting Greenlight Capital’s long-standing focus on value-oriented investing, contrarian opportunities, and businesses trading at discounts to intrinsic value. The portfolio remains relatively concentrated, with the top ten holdings accounting for more than half of total assets. Gree…
[dry-run excerpt] Legendary value investor Seth Klarman believes today’s market may be filled with uncertainty, but that doesn’t change the principles that have guided Baupost Group for more than four decades. During a recent interview on Masters in Business , Klarman explained why disciplined, bottom-up investing continues to offer investors their best chance of long-term success. Klarman acknowledged that investo…
[dry-run excerpt] Studio Prints Chroma tableware by Churchill China, a British hospitality ceramics maker based in Stoke-on-Trent. Welcome to another edition of Giles Capital Weekly. US futures rose after Washington and Tehran agreed to halt attacks, though oil quickly pared its gains as markets looked past the ceasefire to what comes next. Sovereign wealth funds are rotating further into private assets as public m…
[dry-run excerpt] The AI buildout is usually framed as an equity story. It is increasingly a credit one. Roughly $500bn of debt now finances the buildout, across more than 200 instruments: hyperscaler bonds, neocloud high yield, datacenter securitizations, private placements, and construction loans. Most of it did not exist 18 months ago. Issuance ran at a few billion dollars a month in early 2025, then inflected i…
[dry-run excerpt] One of the most common pieces of investing advice is that stocks protect you from inflation. The reasoning is straightforward. A stock is a share in a real business that owns real things: factories, equipment, inventory, brands. As prices rise across the economy, the business can charge more for what it sells, earn more, and pass those higher earnings on to shareholders. A bond pays a fixed number…
[dry-run excerpt] Stock Price Movement: The Dow rose 0.6%, while the S&P 500 fell 2.0% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 4.6% last week, as AI-driven technology weakness and profit-taking outweighed softer Treasury yields and easing oil prices, pressuring broader risk sentiment. The coverage universe moved from -11.9% to +15.8%. TCOM down -11.9% Key events during the previous week: Trip.com: Trip.com Group Q1 2026 …
[dry-run excerpt] “The chances for a problem to rise on the decision agenda are dramatically increased if a solution is attached.” - John W. Kingdon It has been more than a decade and a half since I began following the tobacco industry with great interest. Since then, little has changed in the core investment theses of related businesses. The major firms sport enviable margins and, relative to sales, require minima…
[dry-run excerpt] For the last 332 Sundays, The Bear Cave has delivered these weekly newsletters. This one is special: I am excited to announce Hunterbrook Media has acquired The Bear Cave. Since our founding in a Stanford dorm room six years ago, our posts have been read over 20 million times and have sparked stock declines , social change , and even congressional inquiries . We have grown into a community of over…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now Dashboard - Trending “%” is the estimated change in mobile revenue for that company in the period (Week, 30 Days, 90 Days) vs a longer baseline. Dashboard is always updated weekly here . Share Launch radar No major launch this week, with CookieRun Classic launched by Devsisters in Thailand hiting top 5 the main highlight. Commentary on the Dashboard Performers All the trending compan…
[dry-run excerpt] A trend we continue to see in open model releases is that the ecosystem is becoming more diverse, with an increasing number of organizations releasing a wide range of models. A year ago, open artifacts and the open model landscape more broadly were dominated by a handful of (Chinese) players. This has shifted, with us increasingly featuring more niche companies all over the world. While it is hard…
[dry-run excerpt] Week of June 29, 2026 Welcome to a new edition of The Next Trading Week . Every weekend, I scan hundreds of charts looking for technical setups that may become relevant during the upcoming week. Each setup includes a predefined technical strategy, an activation area, and an invalidation level. The objective is simple: identify interesting opportunities before the market decides where to go. 📊 Resu…
[dry-run excerpt] I have a ton of excel models and a rich market dataset I procure daily, which I prep once or twice a week for AI models to get an alternative view on the market. In a perfect world, I could simply provide AI with data, and it would create a useful forecast, but the reality is AI needs a lot of help to create a good forecast. Here is what the AI models see going forward: Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Beneath the surface, the S&P 500 has quietly strengthened even as it’s trended lower since 6/15. Today saw the widest gap between the high and low in SPY history with the VIX still under 20. Gamma, which had been positive for SPX since March, flipped sharply negative at today’s close. Looking ahead, I think trading will only get tougher thanks to more participants, algo-driven activity, speculatio…
[dry-run excerpt] Today's Iran war news: As many predicted, the MOU negotiations are coming apart along side a report of a further US buildup in theater.
[dry-run excerpt] Gaza Two siblings were killed and at least seven people wounded in an Israeli drone attack on a tent in Gaza despite an ostensible ceasefire that was agreed last October, according to a hospital where the victims were taken. The strike on tents in a camp for displaced people killed 15-year-old Islam Moussa and her 30-year-old brother, Abdullah Moussa. The Israeli military confirmed it had attacked…
[dry-run excerpt] Elected last year on cost-of-living platforms, spook governors spit in the face of labor and embrace data centers and police state.
[dry-run excerpt] Stratechery is on summer break the week of June 29. There will be no Weekly Article or Updates. The next Update will be on Monday, July 6. Dithering , Sharp Tech , and Sharp China will also return the week of July 6. Greatest of All Talk and Asianometry will continue to publish. The full Stratechery posting schedule is here .
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Jerry Zhang on Unsplash It’s almost hard to remember nowadays, but before the pandemic a lot of us were worried about falling business dynamism in the United States. For whatever reason, Americans just weren’t starting companies — either high-growth startups or small businesses — at the rate they used to. Much ink was spilled discussing possible reasons for the trend, and potential levers…
[dry-run excerpt] The Bank of International Settlements took a look at the AI bubble. Not surprisingly, it found a lot not to like.
[dry-run excerpt] A Times/Siena survey reveals a tight race in a key contest for Senate control.
[dry-run excerpt] The goal is to make the survey more deeply representative of the population.
[dry-run excerpt] By Angelo Monaco, Mises Institute Ludwig von Mises was a strict classical liberal who viewed the state as a necessary, albeit dangerous, instrument for protecting social cooperation. He famously used the traditional metaphor of the “night-watchman state.” He saw any taxation that goes beyond funding the absolute bare minimum required to protect citizens from violence, theft, and fraud as the forci…
[dry-run excerpt] The IEA wrote a brief obituary for the Iran war’s oil crisis, which turned out to be not much of a crisis after all. At most, the world suffered roughly eight weeks of elevated oil prices around $100 a barrel in March and April before oil began its decline. Moreover, if $100 oil for a couple of months qualifies as “the greatest energy crisis of our lifetimes,” then the world is in exceedingly good…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo from CPJ / AP / Chan Long Hei The arrest last week of journalist and bookseller Leticia Wong Man-huen on sedition charges brings to at least 29 journalists who have been arrested in Hong Kong since China ordered its sweeping crackdown on the city in 2020. At least nine journalists and press freedom defenders are currently imprisoned, according to data compiled by press freedom organizations,…
[dry-run excerpt] Share History has a cruel habit of repeating its tragedies in new technological wrappers. In March 1968, American soldiers entered the Vietnamese hamlet of My Lai and slaughtered hundreds of unarmed women, children, infants in a frenzy that later became a symbol of a war gone morally bankrupt. The official story at first was “enemy engagement.” The truth, when it leaked out, shattered illusions ab…
[dry-run excerpt] A still from Baahubali: The Eternal War Welcome! It’s a new Sunday issue of the Animation Obsessive newsletter, and here’s the plan: 1. On Annecy 2026. 2. Animation newsbits. 3. The last word. Now, let’s go! 1. Annecy in summary The Annecy Festival happened this past week. If you keep up with the news in animation, it was hard to miss. It’s the biggest event in the animation world, and it gets big…
[dry-run excerpt] Happy Monday and welcome back to Asia Tech Review, your curated digest to keep up to date with tech news across Asia. We’re looking at record IPO filings again after Mynt, a fintech in the Philippines backed by China’s Ant Group and top US private equity funds, went official with plans to raise as much as $1.5 billion. If it hits that target, it would surpass Monde Nissin, the food and beverage gi…
[dry-run excerpt] I had blogged here , arguing that the Indian economy faces a cost-competitiveness constraint. I had written that on many inputs, domestic firms face the cost structure of a developed country. This post will examine the empirical evidence in this regard. This cost structure reflects in the global competitiveness of the country’s manufacturers. India suffers from a persistent and high price disabili…
[dry-run excerpt] Share Over the past few years, Malaysia has emerged as one of Southeast Asia’s hottest destinations for data centre investment. Buoyed by competitive land and power costs, strategic location near Singapore, government incentives, and the explosive growth of AI and cloud computing, the country has attracted billions in FDI from giants like Microsoft, Google, NVIDIA (via YTL), ByteDance, and others.…
[dry-run excerpt] Dear all, for the 4th of July U.S. celebration, which also marks 250 years of American independence , capitalism, and exceptionalism, I said to myself: this is a great occasion to bring you a Maverick Special Report! Second of all, this is also a great occasion to welcome the +2,000 new subscribers with great & diverse backgrounds, for a total of 22,550 from 50 U.S. states & 168 countries. Subscri…
[dry-run excerpt] Another Monday Message Board. Post comments on any topic. Civil discussion and no coarse language please. Side discussions and idees fixes to the sandpits, please. I’m now using Substack as a blogging platform , and for my monthly email newsletter . For the moment, I’ll post both at this blog and on Substack. You can also follow me on Mastodon here .
[dry-run excerpt] The classic idea “what doesn’t kill you makes you stronger” is appealing for a reason. It turns suffering into something useful. It gives adversity meaning. It suggests that whatever we go through, as long as we survive it, we come out better on the other side. But I’m not sure that’s true. Or at least, not in the way we tend to believe it. Because if you look closely, most forms of stress don’t m…
[dry-run excerpt] The market has decided Fox ($FOXA) blundered by paying $22 billion for Roku ($ROKU), and it has cut Fox roughly 25% in the two weeks since the deal was announced. Simeon McMillan of Accrued Interest thinks the market is wrong (see his write up here) . His case: Roku controls about 44% of how Americans reach streaming on the big screen, roughly 3x the next platform, so Fox just bought the front doo…
[dry-run excerpt] As we write this, the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are back at it. Putting that itty bitty hiccup to peace aside, 🙄, the big news this week was inflation. Headline PCE inflation accelerated to its highest reading in roughly three years. For its part, core PCE remained around 3.4% — the persistent f*cker. Those damn RX fees are contributing to core services increases, 😉. As noted …
[dry-run excerpt] On June 23, 2026, Cali-based neurology-focused genomic medicine company Sangamo Therapeutics ($SGMO) (the “debtor” and along with three wholly-owned non-debtor subsidiaries, the “company”) filed a chapter 11 sale case — with two stalking horses teed up! — in the District of Delaware ( Judge Goldblatt ). You know we love these science-y cases!! Actually, in case you don’t really remember: we don’t.…
[dry-run excerpt] This reads better in your browser - so click on the title above to do so… Charts of the Week: Quote of the Week: “Doubt everything. Find your own light.” ― Buddha Reads of the Week: SCMP – Many countries are ‘quiet quitting’ the US & China on trade Long Arc News – The Money Goes First Listens of the Week: Founders – Joseph Pulitzer The Market Huddle – Leslie Harris (Must) Watches of the Week: Norw…
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[dry-run excerpt] While we wait for a general release, the system card is the best hint as to what is going on with the new candidate for America’s Next Top Model, GPT-5.6. This is only an OpenAI model card, so by my standards it’s a light read. There’s a lot of things that you get in an Anthropic card, that are missing in an OpenAI card. Overall, the card gives a clear and consistent impression that GPT-5.6-Sol is…
[dry-run excerpt] As of the end of June, remaining May fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here ) along with new emerging market research have become available starting with another excellent non-EM piece from Praetorian Capital: 🔬🌐 Datacenters Are the New Shale Oil… (Praetorian Capital) I’ve now written two pieces on the economics of AI datacenters ( Piece 1 , Piece 2 ). Nothing sha…
[dry-run excerpt] Two years of Treasure Hunting as a paid blog. That also means two years as a full-time investor. First of all, a big thank you to all the paid subscribers who have made this dream possible. I am very grateful that I get to do what I love for a living. To me, investing is the greatest work I could possibly pursue. To me, investing is not just about money. Money just happens to be the scoreboard we …
[dry-run excerpt] Last week, CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin and Joe Kernen interviewed legendary value investor Jeremy Grantham, and for about six minutes the conversation turned into one of the better moments I’ve seen on financial television in a long time. Grantham, the 86-year-old co-founder of GMO, whose case for the market being overvalued I highlighted last week , built one of the world’s most respected instituti…
[dry-run excerpt] No paywall on this one. Share it with a friend :) This one’s a bit different from our usual reports. I just saw an incredible stat from the Nomura research team, and it felt like a good time to revisit our research on Leveraged ETFs from two years ago . Leveraged ETFs have grown nearly tenfold in the past decade. AUM now sits at an all-time high — this surge is a key driver of the rising volatilit…
[dry-run excerpt] Last week, I spent some time on what I got wrong. Let’s talk about some things I may have gotten right. First, there is a growing awareness that AI economics simply don’t work as discussed in xAirSupply . This is predictably causing two separate actions: Users are increasingly shifting to lower-cost Chinese models — with the national security implications underpriced but difficult to underwrite. U…