[dry-run excerpt] Stream the latest episode Listen and watch now on YouTube , Apple , and Spotify . See the episode transcript at the top of this page, and timestamps for the episode at the bottom. Brought to You by • turbopuffer – The turbopuffer engineering team is doing something really cool: they are completely redesigning their storage architecture from first principles to make search faster, cheaper, and more…
[dry-run excerpt] I put Meta’s new Muse Wonder (and Wonder Full) frontier models through the How I AI bench, which covers nearly 20 tasks across prototyping, agentic workflows, coding, writing, and creative work. I scored everything with an LLM-as-a-judge pass and my own voice notes, then pulled together the first-look results you see here. Listen or watch on YouTube , Spotify , or Apple Podcasts What you’ll learn:…
[dry-run excerpt] Every time Japan’s population crisis trends on X, a weirdly passionate genre of online coping goes viral. It always goes something like this: Someone posts a horrifying chart of Japan’s birth rate falling off a cliff, and just like clockwork, an army of Silicon Valley tech-bros and Western anti-immigration Weeaboos rushes into the replies to insist that “everything is actually totally fine, becaus…
[dry-run excerpt] We are delighted to share with you a Great Investors podcast deep dive, the members-only companion to our free audio program, Howard Marks: Higher-Level Thinking . Each free program in the series is an hour-long narrated profile of one investor. Each deep dive takes one of that investor’s working methods and teaches it to you, in narrated instruction, so that you can run it yourself. This one buil…
[dry-run excerpt] I hate UK stocks. But this setup checks all the boxes, and it trades on the LSE Main Market, not AIM. That means you can actually build a position; liquidity is OK. Despite that, there are no write-ups on ValueInvestorsClub, MicroCapClub or other Substacks. Here is the essence of the pitch: It’s a one-two punch. First, I believe the company is going to sell its weakest business segment. This shoul…
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, If I should have done one thing since I started investing, it should be having this company 100% of my portfolio. Its performance, thanks to the great CEO has been absolutely remarkable and now it has just been proven again as the company reported record results and still it seems like the best times still lie ahead. The company which just reported 33% adjusted EBIT margin up from negative …
[dry-run excerpt] Article type: Company thesis / analytical update Basic Market capitalisation: ~$1.05b; Source: Yahoo Finance Average daily trading volume: ~830k shares over the last 90 trading days; Source: Yahoo Finance Company: Diversified Energy Company Ticker / exchange: DEC / NYSE Research stance: Positive Meaning of stance: This analysis modestly strengthens my confidence in DEC’s hedging economics, but the…
[dry-run excerpt] ASML reported, to nobody’s surprise, yet another strong quarter. Net sales came in at €11.7 billion (towards the high end of management’s guidance) and gross margin landed at 57.5%, well above the guide. This is a situation that we’ve seen quite a few times over the past few quarters and one that’s not unusual in a supply-constrained environment: sales surprising to the upside driven by IBM (Insta…
[dry-run excerpt] Prices change tomorrow. Today is your last chance to join Crack The Market at the current rates: $50/month $400/year $800 founding membership Whichever you choose, your price stays locked for as long as your subscription remains active. From October 15th, the prices become $75/month, $450/year and $1,100 for founding membership . The annual plan remains the best value : 12 months for the price of …
[dry-run excerpt] We are releasing a comprehensive update on both the operational and financial evolution of OMS Energy Technologies ($OMSE) . As always, we’ve included our usual short overview, but if you’re already familiar with the company, feel free to skip straight to the insights from our 1-on-1 interview . Access the Inner Circle Priority Briefings . Investing is dynamic, so our research never sits still. We…
[dry-run excerpt] As we shared in the latest Q3 Letter: Going forward, we’ll bring in new ideas that offer better growth prospects and are usually less covered. It should be refreshing for subscribers to highlight new names that align with the overall philosophy of competitive, durable, and resilient growth – and analyzing ROIC, reinvestment rate... dynamics. Here’s the first pitch - not actionable for our portfoli…
[dry-run excerpt] Anthropic held an investor day yesterday, and the market reaction suggests it fell short of expectations. Q3 revenue rose 45% from Q2 to $16.8B, following $4.7B in Q1 and $11.6B in Q2. Investors appear to have wanted more forward guidance and a path to $100B ARR by year end. (@Geiger_Capital) More than tripling revenue over 2 quarters would normally be an astonishing feat. But expectations were lo…
[dry-run excerpt] China's credit data remain weak, and deposit trends point to deflation risk in 2027. BOJ Koeda's speech was hawkish. Korea money supply growth slowed, and with equities falling, FCI has tightened. That market nervousness on AI isn't shared by TSMC management, and the labour market remains tight.
[dry-run excerpt] For much of the year consumers have performed far better than most expected (including myself as regular readers will know!). Households responded to surging gas prices earlier in the year by rampin… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share Hello, Haymakers: Veteran readers of this newsletter are aware we have been bearish on long-term U.S. Treasury bonds for years. Our epiphany occurred in the summer of 2020 when the yield on the 10-year Treasury plunged to the negligible level of 0.53%. Additionally, it became clear to us the policy responses to Covid had profoundly inflationary implications. Per the following chart from Team…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now Years ago when I came up with GLD/TLT, I thought it was a great trade - but super simplistic. So simplistic, I thought people would laugh at me. But I have been pleasantly surprised at how many people have been influenced by this trade. I have even seen people use it in their own research. Now this is all great and dandy, but I had another investment catchphrase back in the day - “lo…
[dry-run excerpt] On October 6, Ben Carlson over at A Wealth of Common Sense published a piece called " The Rich Are Getting Richer. So Is Everyone Else ," and it does what his best work always does, which is line up a dozen charts that are each entirely real and that all point the same way. He starts with the top 0.1% of households, about 137,000 of them, who now hold 15% of the country's wealth and have added nea…
[dry-run excerpt] From “ Constellation Brands: Opportunity Brewing? ” (September 2025): “As my coverage of companies in the alcohol industry has expanded, I’ve developed more appreciation for changing competitive dynamics and shifting consumer preferences, along with how different companies are responding to those developments. One consistent theme is the critical importance of capital allocation and M&A . I’m wary…
[dry-run excerpt] In July I wrote about a former regional airline that had sold its planes, its operating certificate, and its one customer relationship. What was left was a holding company with nothing in it but cash, and the stock traded well below the value of that cash. The catch was that nobody could see the company's current balance sheet. Now they can. The company just filed its annual report and it confirms…
[dry-run excerpt] Today’s stock: 4x EV/EBITDA Substantial Discount to Replacement Cost. Continuous Operating Profits. 50% Discount to Recent Takeout Offer from Competitor I buy stocks at a discount to private market value. That’s really the only way to invest. If you spend a lifetime accumulating businesses at a discount, you will make out quite well. It won’t work 100% of the time, but the hit rate will be high. W…
[dry-run excerpt] My monthly random ramblings for October 2026. Topics discussed include the Starbucks / Chipotle rumors and a merger with zero synergies (except for one man), SOLS calling off a merger investors hated, why the indices are up double digits while most investors I talk to are despondent, unexpected competition for FICO, IMAX and Netflix, and Oura’s pulled IPO. This podcast is sponsored by Trata I alre…
[dry-run excerpt] A couple of readers recently emailed me a paper by Columbia Business School professor Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh. Its headline estimate is that the US AI buildout “requires approximately $3.7 trillion in annual revenue by 2032 to earn a 10% unlevered return,” a number both the readers and, I suspect, the professor see as a measure of how elevated expectations have become. What I found particularly fun…
[dry-run excerpt] For the month of October 2026 , the Cassandra Unchained Charity of the Month is Siloam Health , a non-profit, donor-supported medical clinic that primarily serves the uninsured, working poor and newly arrived immigrants and refugees who do not quality for traditional government assistance. I have personally vetted this charity, and I know it well. Siloam relies largely on donations to run their op…
[dry-run excerpt] This time last year, after evaluating the healthcare and life sciences sector, I established a basket in Twist Bioscience (TWST), Regeneron (REGN), and Bruker (BRKR), plus a speculative position in Intellia (NTLA). That basket returned over 150%, and I recently closed out TWST for roughly a 6x gain. As of today, I no longer hold any of these positions. A lot has changed in a year, with the XBI up …
[dry-run excerpt] One should not underestimate how much the market environment is affecting the return from deep value stocks as a whole. In boom times, Mr. Market, generally isn’t interested in turnarounds and doesn’t care that much about the balance sheet, asset-backed or not. And those companies, that during “good times”, have ended up in the land of deep value, is generally there for a reason. “Recently, I was …
[dry-run excerpt] ⚡️Update: The Children’s Place Inc. ($PLCE)⚡️ Source: soon-to-be-in-chapter-11-and-taken-private, Getty Images We’ve covered The Children’s Place Inc. ($PLCE) (“TCP” or the “company”), the children’s clothing retailer (and acquirer of twice-bankrupt Gymboree ), extensively over the years and all of that coverage 👇 is worth revisiting just to understand the company’s absolutely batsh*t insane traje…
[dry-run excerpt] Read below or open English PDF version , or auto-translated Simplified Chinese PDF version . International Games System Co., Ltd. (“IGS”, Taipei Exchange: 3293) is a Taiwan-based game developer and publisher that pivoted from arcade games to a game-licensing business, which now accounts for close to 70% of its total revenue. 54% of IGS‘ total revenue and one of the main growth drivers in recent ye…
[dry-run excerpt] The Acquirer’s Multiple® Canada All TSX screen gives investors a way to search Canadian-listed companies for value, cash generation and shareholder returns. This week’s screen contains 87 companies , with a median Acquirer’s Multiple of approximately 7.4x and a median free-cash-flow yield of approximately 12.2% . At the cheaper end, 63 companies trade below 10x , 49 trade below 8x and 14 trade bel…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed Real Options Trades: Covered Calls on Blue Owl and Puts on ServiceNow. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: But so let’s go ahead and get started. So Blue Owl. Blue Owl is an asset manager that has been in the news a lot over this past six months. And what I like about them is they’re a $300 billion alternative asse…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Jeff Weniger discussed Why the Magnificent Seven Are Holding Up the Stock Market. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Jeff] Well, sometimes you get the generals get shot first too. That’s how you can see a market deteriorating when the generals start to go. But the generals are the things holding it up. And the reality is they are such a heavywei…
[dry-run excerpt] Anthropic generated $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue, according to the Financial Times , up from a reported $11.6 billion in Q2 and $4.73 billion in Q1. Quarter-over-quarter revenue growth decelerated from 145.2% in Q2 to 44.8% in Q3, a decline of 100.4 percentage points. Revenue increased by $5.2 billion in Q3, compared with a $6.87 billion increase in Q2. For access, please contact admin@tickertrends…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Wilson I am a value investor by nature, but my investing experience has taught me to be more attuned to sentiment and price action. As Jon and I look at the broader investing landscape through the lens of energy specialists, I don’t see how any of this will end well. Jon published a WOMM piece yesterday saying he doesn’t see any bargains in the market . It’s a public article, and it’s worth 6-…
[dry-run excerpt] You’ve probably seen the headlines by now. In case you haven’t, a rider was thrown from Goliath at Six Flags Over Georgia on October 12 and killed. A sad and horrible tragedy. Within 2 days, the company proceeded to shut 9 other coasters at 6 parks with no timeline to reopen them. This was right in the middle of the Halloween season and right as 2027 season passes went on sale. The stock is sittin…
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[dry-run excerpt] Our guests this week are Andrew Kiguel and Matt McMullen from Realbotix. Realbotix makes humanoid robots that actually look like humans. McMullen, who founded the company, has spent years refining the animatronics and materials needed to create lifelike machines. His past creations have received tons of media attention both because they’re striking and because they veer into companionship and sex …
[dry-run excerpt] As anticipated in the weekend update , indexes trended weaker, with today seeing a notable drop after top investment banks misjudged the CPI forecast. Interestingly, bonds finished higher despite starting the day sharply lower, driven by expectations that the Fed will tighten financial conditions, slowing the economy and reducing rates. Another factor came from the AI sector; slowing AI activity c…
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[dry-run excerpt] Jeremy Pearce From the Great Recession until 2019, U.S. labor productivity growth disappointed. Nonfarm-business output per hour grew about 1 percent a year from 2010 to 2019, down from 3 percent in the late 1990s. This slowdown was especially pronounced in manufacturing, and it coincided with a slowdown in the growth of revenue per worker among public firms. However, since 2019, growth has picked…
[dry-run excerpt] Abdulrahman Alfozan, an OpenAI employee and a citizen of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has been arrested for attempting to bug a meeting room.
[dry-run excerpt] Saudi Arabia and Ansar Allah continued to trade bombs and ballistic missiles. Battles continue in Yemen. More ships hit in the Strait.
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Wiki Sinaloa on Unsplash In the last few months, OpenAI has stunned the mathematical community with the publication of hundreds of math findings, some . Many of these proofs, which span number theory, theoretical computer science, and logic, had stumped the world’s best mathematicians for decades, or centuries. The reaction from the math community has been a mix of indignation, astonishme…
[dry-run excerpt] Listen to this post: Good morning, This week’s Stratechery Interview ended up not being an Interview, but rather a conversation with Hollywood super-agent Ari Emanuel . Emanuel is the Executive Chairman of WME Group , Executive Chair and CEO of TKO Group Holdings (the owner of UFC and WWE), and Founder of MARI , a live events and experiences company. The occasion for this conversation née intervie…
[dry-run excerpt] I'm having a little bit of writer's block and I’d rather not write than force myself to come up with something uninspiring. But rest assured that the next paid article is in the works!
[dry-run excerpt] Photo via Wikimedia Commons A little over a year ago, a bunch of people were worried that the AI data center boom would result in an epic bust, much like the railroad bust in 1873. I wrote about the possibility at the time: The basic idea is that even if AI is an incredibly useful technology and creates enormous economic growth in the future, the people building the infrastructure (data centers) m…
[dry-run excerpt] I was on the road a lot in 2026 so figured I would take a break right at the start of the summer. First Maui and then Vancouver the week after to visit family. But it coincided with some nuttiness in the business and just a brutal financial year. I had a bit of a challenge relaxing with my family the first few days as I was chasing down some deals and trying to sort out some operational issues in …
[dry-run excerpt] Today's Iran war news: IIran and Ansar Allah have dug into "ever be escalating" mode as the US may be manning up too.
[dry-run excerpt] By: Xiaochen Su Photo from East Asia Forum A young Japanese woman signs up for an international language exchange app, hoping for a buddy who can help her understand the Korean dramas she’s become addicted to. Soon, her inbox is inundated with messages from Korean men her age, eager to learn Japanese in return. Excited by the enthusiasm, she strikes up co… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share FOR generations, the northern border regions of Malaysia have been a place of quiet intermingling between Thai and Malaysian communities. Intermarriage, shared kinship ties, and everyday economic exchange have defined life in these border towns for more than a century. Thais from southern provinces have long crossed into Malaysia to work in small restaurants, particularly those specialising …
[dry-run excerpt] AI companies like Anthropic and OpenAI have long mentioned the possibility that their products could be existentially dangerous, but this has recently crescendoed into even more dire warnings, including suggestions that we have to pace the frontier , ie coordinate to slow AI progress. In response, cynical commentators have suggested this is a conspiracy to boost the companies’ stocks. The exact mo…
[dry-run excerpt] Agentic AI is changing everything including at Nvidia. Key Context spoke with Ian Buck, Nvidia’s vice president of hyperscale and high-performance computing, on Tuesday at the OCP Global Summit in San Jose. We discussed why companies continue to choose GPUs over rival chips, how agentic AI is changing the industry, the dynamic between open and frontier AI models, and how service providers can fit …
[dry-run excerpt] When some people discuss China’s trade today, they often see only import and export figures and overlook the real effects behind them. China is both a “super seller” and a “super buyer.” As a “super seller,” the effect we bring to other parties is primarily that of benefiting our neighbors. - Li Qiang today at the Canton Fair In this issue: 1. September trade data 2. Li Qiang at the Canton Fair 3.…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi Interconnected Subscribers: I’m making a quick, literally one-day trip to San Francisco next Wednesday/Thursday to speak on a panel on AI policy and open source, as part of Open Source AI week. The location is the GitHub HQ, my old stomping ground, so I’m very excited to back in the building. If you want to attend the event, here is the LINK . If you want to meet up IRL, either during Wednesday…
[dry-run excerpt] I just wrote about CoreWeave coming under stress today here: What I left out is that there’s also an enormous game-theory problem developing here for Nvidia, one that I think could have implications far beyond CoreWeave. I wanted to explain. If CoreWeave is genuinely headed toward financial distress, we may not have to wait for the company to actually start defaulting on its debt to find out. The …
[dry-run excerpt] Or maybe it never really left. For a while, it looked like the Federal Reserve might finally be getting inflation under control. Supply chains normalized, price pressures seemed more moderated, and the economy appeared capable of sustaining growth without another major inflationary shock. Thanks for reading Rational Reasoning ! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Then came…
[dry-run excerpt] CoreWeave had a brutal day on the stock and credit markets yesterday, and may indicate troubles coming for the broader AI industry.
[dry-run excerpt] But each time I left a village, people warned me about the folks in the next place I was pedaling to: “You’re safe in our village here. But be careful when you get to the next town. There are some shady characters over there.” I’d toss my saddlebags onto the back of my bike, pedal to the next village, and find myself smothered in hospitality again. When it was time to leave, I got the same warning…
[dry-run excerpt] CoreWeave (CRWV) is getting absolutely pasted today, with shares plunging more than 15% as investors finally appear to be waking up to something I’ve been warning about since last year: underneath the extraordinary AI growth story is a heavily leveraged, capital-intensive business whose economics have never made much sense to me. The stock is now down more than 50% in the last year. According to Z…
[dry-run excerpt] Today, we’re launching new content preferences: a set of dials that put you in charge of what your feed shows you. Almost exactly a year ago, Substack co-founder wrote, “ Substack is social media. Yes, okay. It is. ” We started Substack in 2017 as a response to the ways social media was warping culture, so it might seem odd that we’ve somehow built … a social media app. But that doesn’t capture th…
[dry-run excerpt] My monthly random ramblings for October 2026. Topics discussed include the Starbucks / Chipotle rumors and a merger with zero synergies (except for one man), SOLS calling off a merger investors hated, why the indices are up double digits while most investors I talk to are despondent, unexpected competition for FICO, IMAX and Netflix, and Oura’s pulled IPO. This podcast is sponsored by Trata I alre…
[dry-run excerpt] It was good to have a call with management to discuss H1 2026 results. I saw them in June and I like to discuss with them as they don’t like to come often to Paris or to Lyon. Warning, it is a French company so you know that being a French company is not trendy these days. But once again when a company has been able to survive and grow in a country with so many regulations and the French creativit…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. 🆕 New on the site: every chart fund managers publish, on one page The best charts in fund letters and research are usually buried deep inside a PDF. We pull them out and put them side by side — macro, rates, earnings, valuations — each one credited to the firm that made it, with the original…
[dry-run excerpt] Understanding financial ratios is like having a GPS for your investments. Without them, you’re just guessing. These 10 Financial Ratios will help you make smarter investment decisions. Balance Sheet Ratios 10. Debt/Equity Ratio The Debt/Equity Ratio compares how much money a company borrows (debt) to how much money its owners have invested (equity). Source: Wall Street Prep Interpretation It shows…
[dry-run excerpt] We need the frontier labs to have a deep and robust safety culture. Alas, this is not the case. Anthropic devotes considerable effort to cultivating and maintaining such a culture. It shows, especially among the members of technical staff. Having conversations with them can be a very different experience than talking to those at other labs, and there is a much greater sense of understanding and re…
[dry-run excerpt] One of the more batshit insane developments in modern financial markets recently is that owning profitable, dividend-paying blue-chip companies somehow became an unfashionable investment strategy. What started with Alan Greenspan innocently taking a few hits off the monetary crack pipe under a bridge eventually turned into a full-blown, twenty-year addiction, with the entire financial system livin…
[dry-run excerpt] Nosebleed high tanker rates, thanks to Iran attacks on vessels, are producing oil supply chain breakage on the other side of the planet.
[dry-run excerpt] Cozy cooking season is here! Don’t miss out on my recipes for Kasha Varnishkes with Fall Veggies , Sweet and Sour Roasted Cabbage , Chicken and White Bean Cholent , or any of the autumn deliciousness found in The Jewish Table archive . Upgrade to a paid subscription today. Subscribe now Cheesy Kale-Stuffed Mushrooms Dear The Jewish Table readers, Back at the end of August, the world lost a giant o…
[dry-run excerpt] ⚡️Update: The Children’s Place Inc. ($PLCE)⚡️ Source: soon-to-be-in-chapter-11-and-taken-private, Getty Images We’ve covered The Children’s Place Inc. ($PLCE) (“TCP” or the “company”), the children’s clothing retailer (and acquirer of twice-bankrupt Gymboree ), extensively over the years and all of that coverage 👇 is worth revisiting just to understand the company’s absolutely batsh*t insane traje…
[dry-run excerpt] The 2026 Regional Tax Competitiveness Index for Spain highlights a growing divergence between regions that have embraced tax reform and those whose tax systems have remained largely unchanged.