[dry-run excerpt] Tool: HTML table extractor Yet another in my growing collection of paste-conversion tools. This one accepts pasted rich text from browsers (with embedded HTML tables) and converts every detected table into HTML, Markdown, CSV, TSV, or JSON. Try it out by selecting everything on the Wikipedia List of cities and towns in the San Francisco Bay Area page and pasting it directly into the tool: On a sim…
[dry-run excerpt] Tiniest TIL, using AppleScript to count the number of open browser tabs in Safari: osascript -e 'tell application "Safari" to count tabs of every window' Tags: safari , til , applescript
[dry-run excerpt] Ornith-1.0: Self-Scaffolding LLMs for Agentic Coding This is an interesting new open weights (MIT licensed) model, the first model release from DeepReinforce. [...] with variants including 9B Dense, 31B Dense, 35B MoE, and 397B MoE. Built on top of pretrained Gemma 4 and Qwen 3.5, it achieves state-of-the-art performance among open-source models of comparable size on coding benchmarks. As far as I…
[dry-run excerpt] GLM-5.2: why I’m replacing Opus in Claude Code with this new model Listen now on YouTube • Spotify • Apple Podcasts Brought to you by: Mercury —Radically different banking, loved by over 300K entrepreneurs Claire tests GLM-5.2, the new open-weight model from Z.ai, inside her actual ChatPRD codebase. She runs it through codebase audits, UI redesigns, and a 45-minute autonomous bug-hunting task in C…
[dry-run excerpt] Eddie Kim is the co-founder and CTO of the payroll and HR platform Gusto, which just crossed $1 billion in revenue and serves more than 500,000 small businesses. Recently he did something most CTOs don’t: he went back to writing code. With three other engineers and one designer, Eddie built Gusto Cofounder, a net-new AI product, from zero code to a tier-one launch in 10 weeks. He walks through how…
[dry-run excerpt] For the past 3 years, AI evals have been my professional focus. 1 The most common objection I hear to evals is “our product is hard to eval”. This objection is a product smell. Artifacts that are hard for you to verify are often hard for users too. In the worst case, users have to redo the work from scratch to verify the output. More importantly, designing your product for ease of verification sho…
[dry-run excerpt] “A brilliant man who can’t get any money from other people and is working with a very small sum probably should work in very obscure stocks, searching out unusual mispriced opportunities.” - Charlie Munger (2001 Berkshire Hathaway annual meeting) I remembered this quote on a walk and Charlie is right. The logic is simple nobody watches obscure stocks, so prices get set by noise rather than analysi…
[dry-run excerpt] We were delighted to welcome Yuval Taylor of Fieldsong Investments to The Zurich Project 2026, and we are grateful to him for sharing his wisdom and insights so openly with the group. While Zurich Project proceedings are kept confidential by default, Yuval has kindly approved the sharing of his audio replay, talk script, Q&A transcript, and slide deck. Yuval is an unusual figure in this community.…
[dry-run excerpt] Every day we hear new stories of the extraordinary capex going to build out AI infrastructure and the plans to bring on far more infrastructure ahead. With most of mega cap tech blowing their entire… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] On July 1, 2026, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico, the three parties to the USMCA, must decide whether to extend the agreement for another 16 years. If any country declines to confirm the extension, the agreement enters a cycle of annual reviews and, absent a resolution, expires in 2036. July 1 is therefore not a deadline to renegotiate the agreement, but rather the start of the formal review process …
[dry-run excerpt] China's PMIs ticked up in June, but not by enough to dispel recent concerns about the cycle. In Japan, this year's pick-up in IP was sustained in May. The message from Korea's month-end data is a bit mixed, but there are some signs of the cycle broadening.
[dry-run excerpt] There are signs of a broadening of the cycle, with construction past the worst, capex rising, and the labour market bottoming. However, while services activity has been strong recently, retail sales are still sluggish, and industrial production is going sideways.
[dry-run excerpt] Today's official PMIs ticked up, but not by enough to clear market concern about the strength of the cycle caused by the weak IP, retail sales and FAI data of the last couple of months.
[dry-run excerpt] Folks, this next chart is important. I know it will seem like a boring “funding” discussion, but I implore you to stop and think about the implications of this seemingly innocuous development. It’s screaming danger, and yet few are listening. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now Gold has been pretty weak this year since it peaked back in February. I liked gold ever since Russian foreign reserves were frozen. For me, this would drive other big nations to diversify away from treasuries, and for China this could only mean gold. I also took the view that gold would do poorly if US yields rose enough, so have been bearish on TLT. This trade did look overbought ea…
[dry-run excerpt] In this episode of Justified Posteriors , we host Alan Rozenshtein and Kevin Frazier — the law-professor duo behind Lawfare’s Scaling Laws — to take two of the most-discussed AI policy documents of the spring and subject them to an inquisition. Our disputors are probably not what Pope Leo anticipated: two lawyers, two economists, and probably 3/4ths Jewish. Talk about a crossover episode! First up…
[dry-run excerpt] Summary: Micron reported earnings last week and put the spotlight on memory prices. Memory prices have risen so much that consumer electronics companies are having to raise prices to protect margins. Inflation hasn’t gone away. Editor’s Note: We have reserved the sections after Macro for our premium subscribers. If you’re not a premium subscriber already, please consider subscribing. Share The Tra…
[dry-run excerpt] Companies mentioned: Catana Group SA (ALCAT) – Euronext Paris, France Nimbus Group AB (publ) (BOAT) – Nasdaq Stockholm, Sweden Fountaine Pajot SA (ALFPC) – Euronext Paris, France Beneteau SA (BEN) – Euronext Paris, France Malibu Boats, Inc. (MBUU) – Nasdaq, United States Sanlorenzo SpA (SL) – Borsa Italiana, Italy Ferretti SpA (YACHT) – Borsa Italiana, Italy Marine Products Corporation (MPX) – New…
[dry-run excerpt] This past weekend, I came across a great interview of Marc Andreessen, conducted by his partner Ben Horowitz. Marc Andreessen Substack The true story -- as best I can remember -- of the origin of Mosaic and Netscape. Listen now 2 years ago · Marc Andreessen These are the two founders of a legendary VC firm. More importantly, they were pioneers in the early internet, and Marc Andreessen discussed h…
[dry-run excerpt] 06/26/2026 Equity markets are undergoing a transition as the unchecked capex boom from mega-cap hyperscalers runs into endless price gouging from memory makers. Micron’s earnings once again smashed expectations, but the market reaction was telling. Effectively every stock tied to heavy memory usage has been sold off as investors realize memory is taking a larger and larger share of capex and/or co…
[dry-run excerpt] There's a 344-unit QSR operator that screens like a textbook death spiral. Same-store sales down double digits. They also have a going-concern flag. with several commitments currently under forbearance. Those forbearance agreements are up this week too. Buried under all of this going-concern language is a setup the tape is completely missing: this company's problems aren't its problems. They're th…
[dry-run excerpt] Programming Note : As mentioned earlier, MBI Deep Dives will be off for the next week and I will resume the cadence of posting daily on Tuesday next week (July 07, 2026). For the “Never Sell” podcast, Scuttleblurb and I published a new episode yesterday. Scuttleblurb recently introduced a new feature “Scuttleslops” and we took this opportunity to discuss the initial reactions as well as AI’s growi…
[dry-run excerpt] Today’s post: Dominant industry player during deep industry recession Multi-year targets call for MSD sales growth and 20%+ EPS growth through 2028 Pending acquisition adds deep vertical integration For new subscribers — these write-ups are meant to be a “jumping off point” for the idea generation process (i.e. a surface level review). Each write-up includes: (1) company background; (2) why the id…
[dry-run excerpt] Imagine someone comes to you and says “there’s a publicly traded financial instrument; it has a strange quirk that can generate free alpha if you short it (or buy it).” What would you think? In general, I’d be pretty damn skeptical. I’d think they were missing something; in fact, I remember a few years back a bunch of (largely retail) traders thought they’d found a free alpha hack by shorting the …
[dry-run excerpt] Investors rarely struggle because economic progress stops. More often, they struggle because expectations move far faster than underlying fundamentals. That distinction remains especially relevant as equity indexes hover near record levels while enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, technology spending, and corporate earnings continues to accelerate. During his recent interview with TBPN, How…
[dry-run excerpt] According to the most recent reported 13F filings, institutional investors showed renewed buying interest in Avantor Inc (AVTR), with several prominent hedge funds, quantitative managers, and long-term value investors increasing exposure or initiating new positions during the quarter. The accumulation comes as investors evaluate Avantor’s position as a leading supplier of products and services to …
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Value Options Letter and Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Tobias discussed How Selling Puts Creates A Cheaper Entry Price. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Tim] Right. So the way to think about it is when we’re selling puts and we’re actually exercised, what we’re doing essentially is manufacturing a cheaper entry price into the stock. And you’ll see in one of t…
[dry-run excerpt] “Since the financial markets are inefficient a good deal of the time, investors cannot simply select a level of risk and be confident that it will be reflected in the accompanying returns. Risk and return must instead be assessed independently for every investment.” —Seth Klarman Read more
[dry-run excerpt] “Big Oil is a club, and they’ll do everything to keep me out.” – T. Boone Pickens Few Americans give a second thought to how they access energy for cooking. To a rough approximation, 60% of US households cook directly with electricity—tapping one of the largest and most reliable grids in the world—with the rest largely relying on ready access to cheap natural gas delivered via pipeline. Some homes…
[dry-run excerpt] What we are witnessing today in the oil market is history in the making. How so? From the onset of the Iran conflict, these three were our signals: Crude timespreads: a reflection of the underlying physical market condition of the crude oil market. 3-2-1 crack spread: a reflection of product demand, refinery profitability, and the durability of the price strength/weakness in crude. Onshore oil inv…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to another issue of Recent Academic Research ! Let’s get into it. Decoding the Smart Money Trail Institutional investors leave detectable footprints across options markets, dark pools, and the order book, and a systematic four-layer framework can help retail traders read them. When a hedge fund takes a large directional position, it rarely announces the fact. Instead, it routes block …
[dry-run excerpt] I’m pretty sure you won’t have come across the Apple-Banana Paradox before, and the main reason for that is that I’ve just made it up. But this novel economic phenomenon is worth spending a moment pondering, if only because it tells you rather a lot about the nature of the 21st century world. Granted, “paradox” is a little bit of a fancy word for a perfectly simple phenomenon, which is as follows.…
[dry-run excerpt] Executive Summary Redwire (RDW) has become one of Wall Street’s most compelling space and defense stories. The company operates in attractive markets (orbital infrastructure, defense technology, autonomous systems, and national security) and its contracts, products, and customers are real. That narrative has helped drive significant investor enthusiasm. Our concern is not with the industries Redwi…
[dry-run excerpt] A couple of months ago, we went to Nevada and invaded the Tesla Semi factory. It was early days in the factory’s march toward full production. We made a beautiful video about the experience , and it w… Read more
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[dry-run excerpt] Alain Chaboud, Ellen Correia Golay, Michael J. Fleming, Yesol Huh, Frank M. Keane, and Or Shachar More than $30 trillion U.S. Treasury debt is outstanding. Less than 4 percent of this amount, which is associated with the most recently issued Treasuries, called on-the-run securities, accounts for 65 percent of average daily trading volume. The remaining portion of the amount outstanding is accounte…
[dry-run excerpt] Today's Iran war news: Israel is aggressively escalating in Lebanon and threatens Iran as its Assembly of Experts hardens the red lines.
[dry-run excerpt] By Per Bylund, American Institute for Economic Research Led by Ozempic and Wegovy, glucagon-like peptides (GLP-1s) have become a global phenomenon, with one in eight US adults currently taking one. Those two branded compounds, both made by Novo Nordisk, emerged from attempts to develop a diabetes drug. It effectively lowers blood glucose, slows gastric emptying, and reduces hunger, leading many pa…
[dry-run excerpt] "Noboa and Ecuador today export 70% of the cocaine consumed by the world. Most of it leaves on this criminal's merchant ships and is packed in his banana facilities."
[dry-run excerpt] A major shift among Hispanic voters and a favorable candidate matchup have helped put Democrats on the doorstep of a Senate upset.
[dry-run excerpt] Somehow it’s already July. And with it comes the heat, along with the health consequences that follow. We’re also seeing a rise in the virus behind many sore throats, plus some possible early Covid-19 signals in the South. A military flu outbreak continues to increase after the removal of a vaccine requirement. A summer flu outbreak? Yes, it’s possible, and yes, it sure feels like we’re spending a…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Peter Herrmann on Unsplash The debate about the future of jobs and AI often polarizes into two extreme categories, neither of which I find particularly useful. On one side, there are the Doomers. They predict that AI will destroy millions of jobs. Most notably, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has sometimes predicted an imminent entry-level white-collar wipeout. The problem with this theory is …
[dry-run excerpt] “Big Oil is a club, and they’ll do everything to keep me out.” – T. Boone Pickens Few Americans give a second thought to how they access energy for cooking. To a rough approximation, 60% of US households cook directly with electricity—tapping one of the largest and most reliable grids in the world—with the rest largely relying on ready access to cheap natural gas delivered via pipeline. Some homes…
[dry-run excerpt] A sunny view of egalitarian tendencies in the history of America.
[dry-run excerpt] I admit during the 2010s, I was a fanboy of Chamath Palihapitiya. A fellow Canuck, but from a very poor & troubled family life, he made it to Silicon Valley. Chamath really made it big as an executive at Facebook. He parlayed his fortune there into VERY successful investments in the Golden State Warriors, Slack, Groq. He was critical, outspoken, passionate, called things as he saw it and people lo…
[dry-run excerpt] Share In the latest Sovereign Grant report for 2025-2026, Buckingham Palace quietly revised the description of King Charles III’s role. Where previous wording presented him as “Head of the Church of England and Defender of the Faith,” the new text states: “His Majesty is Supreme Governor of the Church of England and protects the space for Faith within the multi-faith nation.” The 500-year-old titl…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to Asia Tech Review, your curated digest to keep up to date with tech news across Asia. You can’t escape South Korea’s AI creds these days. Whether it is record earnings from Samsung, SK Hynix becoming a trillion-dollar business or the rise (and volatile crashes) of the KOSPI, the benchmark for the South Korea Exchange which is now world famous. Yesterday, the country’s Prime Minister…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Toh Han Shih Cambodian scam compound. Photo from Amnesty International US authorities, in recent operations coordinated with Hong Kong, Singapore, Japan, Australia and Cambodia, have sanctioned individuals and companies, arrested suspects connected to the notorious Cambodia-based Prince Holding Group and seized the financial infrastructure of Huione G… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share Malaysia’s economy tells a story of impressive aggregate growth masking deep structural fractures. While GDP figures often paint a picture of respectable progress, the nation’s wealth and equity remain stubbornly concentrated. This uneven distribution of equity is not just an economic statistic, it’s a social and political reality that perpetuates disempowerment, entrenches neo-feudal hierar…
[dry-run excerpt] We should get news of the June Politburo meeting Tuesday Today’s top items: 1. Plane flies into Beijing’s tallest building - A small plane flew into Beijing’s tallest building - the CITIC Tower aka “China Zun” - killing the pilot and injuring 13 people. The authorities released a brief statement that did not name the pilot or even the building, and then censorship went into overdrive. It looks to …
[dry-run excerpt] Source : https://global.toyota/en/company/profile/production-sales-figures/202605.html# Key Points: Toyota finally made its first serious move in Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) Impelled by declining sales of gasoline and hybrid cars in key markets Upgrades and price cuts bring BEVs to 4.5% of Toyota’s global sales in May, up from 1.9% in 2025 Including PHEVs brings the EV share to 7% Increase in…
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[dry-run excerpt] Nine anti-ICE activists have received decades long sentences after a July 4, 2025 noise protest outside an ICE facility went horribly wrong. The case has received an alarming lack of attention from liberal, and even leftist opponents of the Trump 2.0 regime.
[dry-run excerpt] The Asset has reported that the fairly well known CLSA brand is to be retired 🗃️ : So, Citic will ditch the CLSA brand in 2027, consigning to history probably the last remaining vestige of the legions of formerly independent British stockbrokers in Hong Kong. Citic clearly believes its target – “to become a leading domestic and internationally-renowned Chinese investment bank, trusted by clients a…
[dry-run excerpt] The Wall Street Journal printed an outright false headline and heavily misleading story claiming this, which of course was uncritically amplified by the usual suspects. I post this now on its own so that we have a place to link to, to explain the situation. Headline News WSJ Headline (Obvious Nonsense): China Has Matched Anthropic in Cybersecurity, Resetting AI Race. That. Did. Not. Happen. The p…
[dry-run excerpt] Seems everyone has decided Mag7’s multi-year bull run is finished for multiple reasons - capex, over-owned, crowded, now a funding leg. In reality, they probably just sold it as they needed cash to chase the next shiny thing. SPX closed up on Friday at 7350 after the AI trade cooled a little. I’ll put my balls on the line before the paywall today, my July SPX target is 7,700. And if positioning st…
[dry-run excerpt] A law meant to end surprise medical billing has led to large paydays for some surgical assistants, who can earn far more than the doctors they help.
[dry-run excerpt] Summary: Bonds remain in a major compression regime. Our bias is for a breakdown lower, as we covered last week. But they’re short-term oversold, and positioning needs to lighten before the next leg down gets traction. Expect some reversion over the next few weeks. We’re looking to get long 2s and 10s on confirmed bullish advances. The next two weeks are telling for DXY. It needs to hold its recen…
[dry-run excerpt] Eaxaming the Europe air conditioning question as more heat is on the way.
[dry-run excerpt] This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit , Discord , and bulletin board , and in-person meetups around the world . Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here . Also: 1: Update on the Lumina dental probiotic : their postmarket testing found that the original bacterium couldn't mai…
[dry-run excerpt] @openmikedrop #basketball Tiktok failed to load. Enable 3rd party cookies or use another browser This Rube Goldberg exhibit has 70 steps and took 2 months to put together in his backyard. You know that our calendars repeat. A specific calendar arrangement (the exact alignment of dates and days of the week) follows a set pattern of 6, 11, or 28 years, depending on the year’s leap-year status and th…
[dry-run excerpt] This morning Strategy unveiled what is easily its most comprehensive overhaul yet of how it intends to support its growing stack of preferred securities . On paper, it’s a meaningful step forward. The company is creating dedicated cash reserves, formalizing its dividend policy, authorizing billions in buybacks, and introducing a much more disciplined capital allocation framework. If you’re a holde…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to another issue of Recent Academic Research ! Let’s get into it. Decoding the Smart Money Trail Institutional investors leave detectable footprints across options markets, dark pools, and the order book, and a systematic four-layer framework can help retail traders read them. When a hedge fund takes a large directional position, it rarely announces the fact. Instead, it routes block …
[dry-run excerpt] Imagine someone comes to you and says “there’s a publicly traded financial instrument; it has a strange quirk that can generate free alpha if you short it (or buy it).” What would you think? In general, I’d be pretty damn skeptical. I’d think they were missing something; in fact, I remember a few years back a bunch of (largely retail) traders thought they’d found a free alpha hack by shorting the …
[dry-run excerpt] In recent years, several countries have taken measures to reduce carbon emissions, including instituting environmental regulations, emissions trading systems (ETSs), and carbon taxes.
[dry-run excerpt] Please share our posts with your readership networks on Substack! Share The most useful VPP paper of the summer is not, strictly speaking, a VPP paper. It is a distribution planning paper: Distribution Operational Potential of Grid Edge Resources , a May 2026 PNNL report prepared by Dale Murdock and Owen Goldstrom of ICF and Paul De Martini of ICF, with DOE Office of Electricity sponsorship. The p…