[dry-run excerpt] ASML has not announced anything yet, but its patent filings, a news report and its own roadmap all suggest so. We believe it will start with a die-to-wafer (D2W) hybrid bonding (HB) tool. This is harder to build than wafer-to-wafer but is where ASML could gain an edge. We see the move as a natural extension of ASML’s vertical integration, and one that should strengthen its customer ties. In this a…
[dry-run excerpt] The Pulse is a series covering events, insights, and trends within Big Tech and startups. Today, we cover: OpenAI software engineer accused of spying. A software engineer working on OpenAI’s Agents SDK has been arrested after allegedly planting a secret audio recording device in a meeting room at the AI company. The FBI and US Department of Justice are in… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Disclaimer : The content on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and is not created to meet your personal financial situation. Nothing should be considered as investment advice or as a guarantee of profit. You are advised to consult with your financial advisors to discuss your investment options and whether it would be a suitable investment for your personal needs. The i…
[dry-run excerpt] When I initiated coverage on Carasent in August 2025, the thesis was simple. It was a sticky, high-margin healthcare software engine, buried under the 2020–2022 acquisition spree and run by an operator who would let the operating leverage show. Q3-25 was the inflection point . In Q4-25 I bought the AI panic . Q1-26 was core strength under surface noise , and Q2-26 was another tick in the box . Q3-…
[dry-run excerpt] The bull market may be faltering, but it’s boom time in the marketplace for bull. Here’s Palantir CTO Shyam Sankar : “So many AI researchers have started smoking as a way of signaling to other researchers how much they believe in AI,” Sankar said in an interview on CBS News’ “Face the Nation” on Sunday. The logic, he said, is: “I believe so much in AI that it’s going to cure cancer. So I’m showing…
[dry-run excerpt] We are delighted to share with you the sixth in-depth research report in our Industry Primers series, this one on fertilizers . The series exists to help fundamental, long-term investors expand and deepen their circle of competence, one industry at a time, and your feedback on what was useful and on which industries to cover next shapes what we produce. The report is complemented by two podcast ep…
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part Two of the Industry Primers audio program on fertilizers, published by Latticework from MOI Global. It is the deep dive, made for professional investors and for anyone who analyzes these companies for a living. It assumes the ordinary vocabulary of investing and explains only what is specific to this industry, and it stands on its own for a… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part One of the Industry Primers audio program on fertilizers, published by Latticework from MOI Global. It is the first of two audio programs that accompany the written primer on the fertilizer industry, and it is the story of the industry, told for a general audience. The account is built from documented scenes, with the people named, the dates given, and the participants quoted in their…
[dry-run excerpt] Could AI spark a new boom in frontier and emerging markets? Investors and company representatives met in Ibiza to debate the opportunity. The post “Frontier Markets 3.0” – could AI spark a new boom? appeared first on Undervalued Shares .
[dry-run excerpt] All day you are flooded with stock ideas and themes. Everyone telling you the next great investment idea. Ideas and themes all over the place. But how do we put them together? How do you build a portfolio? Few ever talk about how to build a portfolio. Yet, it is arguably the most important part of the process. What are sensible guidelines and tools for portfolio construction? Did you weight that s…
[dry-run excerpt] For this edition we welcome Jack Pailing, Founder and Portfolio Manager of Colebrooke Partners. Colebrooke Partners are quality-led value investors in UK-listed businesses. (Disclaimer: This interview is for informational and educational purposes only, and should not be seen as investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any company mentioned). Thanks so much for taking the …
[dry-run excerpt] Emerging markets IPOs are coming back this year. After PICs in Brazil, now it’s Airtel Money. An interesting company just entered the London stock exchange: Airtel money is a subsidiary of my investment Airtel Africa, A company I did not write a full write up but mentioned in portfolio reviews. The financials look attractive at first glance: Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Three weeks from now Americans vote in the most consequential midterm for markets since 2018, and probably since 2010 . Every institution has published its guide and most of them say the same thing: Democrats take the House, gridlock is good, healthcare goes up, defense comes down, and AI is unaffected. That consensus is mostly right on the politics and mostly wrong on what matters for portfolios.…
[dry-run excerpt] So… here’s me reaching out to the community to explain How The World Works… this time, thankfully, not written by Noam Chomsky. I’m obviously kidding. I’m in no position to lecture anyone on basically anything, but I want to share a much more personal piece than what we typically cover here. This one is all about processing signals from your body. What people commonly refer to as instinct, intuiti…
[dry-run excerpt] Today we have the fourth episode of the “Daniel’s Dividends” series. In this format we take a closer look at companies that could be interesting for investors who want to build a dividend portfolio and create a growing stream of recurring income. The goal is to look beyond the dividend itself and understand the business behind it to see whether its dividend can remain reliable, sustainable and con…
[dry-run excerpt] This week we cover Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), one of the most important companies in the technology industry. The note is part of our series on the semiconductor industry, following our deep dives on AMD and ASML . ASML produces the lithography machines that TSMC relies on, while AMD is among the customers whose chips TSMC manufactures, and both reports provide useful conte…
[dry-run excerpt] The last few days I’ve spent time with various folks in the tech-VC ecosystem for the day job and what was most eye opening was not the talk of any particular tech innovation, but just how far out of… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Sign of the times. The U.S. is projected to hit its $41.1T debt limit before the end of 2027. The ceiling was raised by $5T just last year. That is how quickly the debt pile is growing. (JPM) An interesting Wall Street Journal article on Britain’s unsustainable welfare spending. Not exactly comforting reading for taxpayers. Some 7M people, more than 10% of the U.K. population, claim at least one s…
[dry-run excerpt] Some highlights of the chart pack I've been working on looking at the China Shock (and China Squeeze). The China Shock isn't over, with data today showing R&D spending reaching a new high of 2.8% of GDP in 2025. In Korea, the TOT rose further in September, and unemployment remained low.
[dry-run excerpt] A chart pack focused on China's trade: the China Squeeze isn't so severe; the China Shock is, but is likely to intensify further; as important as both is a shortfall in imports, which is broad-based, and worsening. That reflects weak demand, which Beijing still shows no urgency in addressing.
[dry-run excerpt] Anthropic's valuation is already crashing... and it hasn't even IPO'd yet! What's happening? This Wednesday, October 14th, Anthropic held a pre-IPO investor day. But the market was not impressed. Anthropic's $2 trillion valuation is now being scrutinised while AI trades are sharply down for the week. The numbers were not bad with quarter-on-quarter growth of 45% – but negativity focused on slowing…
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[dry-run excerpt] Overview 19 days until the US mid terms. Today’s highlight will probably be Kevin Warsh’s fireside chat with the head of the IMF/World Bank in Bangkok today. Everyone will be watching to see if he gives any clues about future Fed policy although that is unlikely based on his preference not to give guidance! Asian markets look to open higher as the pressure on AI/Tech seems to be easing, helped by …
[dry-run excerpt] With our mental framework in place, we were ready to go and execute quite a few trades today. Here’s what I did: Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Get more from Michael Howell in the Substack app Available for iOS and Android Get the app
[dry-run excerpt] Share Hello, Haymakers: Most are aware that the unprecedented AI data center build-out has been driving the present U.S. construction boom. But few likely realize how skewed this building frenzy has been, as is clearly illustrated by this image from the ever-perceptive Kevin Muir, author of The MacroTourist. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] As regular readers know, the economy has held up far better this year than I expected given the trend of flagging household incomes combined with the oil shock. That strength has been largely the res… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] We raised the alarm on the AI Trade on the premise that the monkeys who trade it have no clue what they own and they are also terrible in Mafs . The funniest part is that the things that the Monkeys are worried about shouldn’t really be a concern if they thought them through for a second … or even asked Claude. For example, is the US 10 Year crossing >5% really a concern? Well, not for someone who…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now I had barely sent out an update on GLD/TLT when market action has come to test me. If you have been living under a rock, the AI trade has swooned as the bonds of Coreweave has been sold aggressively. They are now yielding 15%, or perhaps more importantly, as a big discount to par - signalling fears of default. I took a good look at Coreweave, and came up with two totally different ou…
[dry-run excerpt] High Quality Food SpA (HQF) is an Italian producer and distributor of premium food products, supplying high-end restaurants, hotels, and catering businesses in Italy and international markets through a vertically integrated supply chain. HQF now trades at P/TB 0.78x. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, I hope you are all well. I’ve updated my notification process slightly so subscribers can better monitor my portfolio changes in real time. To recap, the notification system is as follows: Any time I start a new position or completely exit an existing one, I send an email to ensure you receive a direct notification, in addition to posting on Substack and Discord. For other adjustments, such…
[dry-run excerpt] The book is up 35.6% this year through the Oct 15 close, against 13.8% for the S&P 500. Since Mar 13, 2025 it’s up 108.9% against 32.9%, which works out to 58.9% annualized against 19.6%, time-weighted and net, all my own money. As of the close I’m running 100.5% net exposure, 126.5% gross, with 113.5% long and 13.0% short. The full portfolio lives in the Guardian Discord now. Every trade I make g…
[dry-run excerpt] Planet MicroCap Toronto is coming up October 27–29, and I’m going through some of the companies I want to understand better. One of the more interesting names on my list is HLS Therapeutics - which (shockingly) landed a TOP 10 spot on my list for more research. Why? Last year I made it pretty clear I was developing a ‘cannabis index’ of some of the best cannabis companies, and that has made me mon…
[dry-run excerpt] I know the semi stocks are getting shot at the market due to Anthropic’s ARR “ miss ” yesterday, but ASML’s 3Q’26 earnings was not the place to look to gauge any hiccup in AI. Total net sales were a record €11.7 Billion (+55% YoY), gross margin a record 57.5%, operating margin 44.4%, and normalized EPS more than doubled to ~€11.6. The 4Q’26 guide of €14.2–15.2 Billion implies ~51% YoY growth at th…
[dry-run excerpt] The US quarterly results really starts with the Banks. The first of the major banks to report is JP Morgan, We have looked at JP Morgan (JPM) a few times. These reports can be found here , here and here . We revisited the stock again in the light of the Q3 2026 Results. We have never had significant investments in banks, but we look forward to their results as the they give a window on the state o…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Speedwell Research’s Newsletter. We write about business and investing. Our paid research product can be found at SpeedwellResearch.com. This is a new company report announcement. Members can access Speedwell’s Reports here . You can become a Speedwell Member here . Few industries have more failed businesses than ad tech. Even well established companies that have found their niche in th…
[dry-run excerpt] This week’s best investing news: Bill Nygren’s Q3 2026 Market Commentary: A conversation with shareholders (Oakmark) Legendary investor Paul Tudor Jones: 2027 is going to be really challenging for the stock market (CNBC) Live from New York: Bill Ackman, Aussie businesses & other observations (EM) Hidden Value in South Korea (Verdad) Chris Davis and Robert Hagstrom on Holding Great Businesses (ER) …
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed The Options Wheel Strategy: Generate Income With Puts and Covered Calls. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: You keep reloading the gun. So it’s a total game changer. So what I also love is what we call the wheel. Okay. So there’s other videos where you could find stuff about this, but this is a no brainer strategy…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Jeff Weniger discussed Are Long-Term Treasury Bonds Finally Worth Buying? Here’s an excerpt from the episode: Now, again, this is where this requires forecasting where inflation goes from here. But if it can hang out at 3.4, then suddenly that’s not the worst prospect in the world. But to go back to France right now, this is see, we just did that.…
[dry-run excerpt] “The true investor scarcely ever is forced to sell his shares, and at all other times he is free to disregard the current price quotation. He need pay attention to it and act upon it only to the extent that it suits his book, and no more. Thus the investor who permits himself to be stampeded or unduly worried by unjustified market declines in his holdin… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] At HFIR, our approach is to develop a thesis, test it, set post-mortem signals, and then pivot if needed. In April, when I wrote the breaking point article on the oil market, I said that it was impossible to know where oil prices peak because 1) we are not certain about the sensitivity of demand to rising prices and 2) how long the conflict would last. Now that we are nearly 8 months into this Ira…
[dry-run excerpt] BY: Sam Koppelman , Matthew Termine , Blake Spendley EDITOR: Vikas Kumar An MLB owner borrowed against his homebuilder’s stock. Then the homebuilder he controls agreed to buy another one, financed by expensive preferred stock and debt. Now, with mortgage rates soaring, the question has become: Will he have to post more collateral? Will he have to sell the team? Or does he have another trick up his…
[dry-run excerpt] Dear Compounders, Warren Buffett once said that when memos from Howard Marks arrive in his mail, they are the first thing he opens and reads, and that he always learns something from them. “When I see memos from Howard Marks in my mail, they're the first thing I open and read. I always learn something, and that goes double for his book.” I understand the impulse. Over the years, I have noticed tha…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe to watch the full Daily Update video Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] For the first time since its launch a decade ago, merchants will soon have to pay fees to use the system. Some are suggesting that Washington may be behind the move.
[dry-run excerpt] Ansar Allah hit the enemy HQ in Aden and denied firing at Medina. CENTCOM claimed control of Hormuz as ship attacks hit new highs.
[dry-run excerpt] President Trump has been promoting his efforts to reduce drug prices, but many Americans have not seen relief from rising costs for prescriptions and insurance premiums.
[dry-run excerpt] Dear readers: I might or might not have mentioned that I’ve been writing a book. It’s call “China Reconsidered: Behind the Great Wall of Disinformation.” I’m publishing with Baraka Books , a Quebec-based English-language book publisher specialized in creative and political non-fiction, history and historical fiction, and fiction. It’s going to be a part of their “ Traction ” series of shorter read…
[dry-run excerpt] Arrest of human smugglers in Hat Yai on October 12. Share Thai immigration police dismantled a people-smuggling cell this week, arresting a Chinese former flight attendant and four others accused of moving nationals illegally across the Thailand-Malaysia border, underscoring that such crossings are driven by structured criminal networks rather than isolated acts. Recent cases involving the Thailan…
[dry-run excerpt] Rising temperatures inflict a higher mortality cost than other extreme weather events.
[dry-run excerpt] By Meetups Czar Skyler: There are two laws of the ACX Meetup Czar. First, that there are a lot of ACX meetup groups. Second, that there are not enough ACX meetup groups. Twice a year, Scott advertises upcoming meetups and makes a bigger deal about it than usual. Throughout the year his meetup czar (that’s me, Skyler!) gets emails from people moving to a new city wondering if there’s an ACX group t…
[dry-run excerpt] A still from Kakania (1989) Welcome! It’s a new Thursday issue of the Animation Obsessive newsletter. This time, we’re looking into Karen Aqua, an independent animator from the East Coast. Not everyone knows Aqua’s name today. But, in her scene, she was beloved. Michael Sporn adored her films. Her peer Joanna Priestley called her “one of the truly great b… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to Asia Tech Review, your curated digest to keep up to date with tech news across Asia. Happy Friday, we don’t often dive into crypto topics but this week has seen a major security scare sweep across Asia. Evidence of spyware in Ledger’s hardware devices threatens the safety behind the principle that you can own your assets independently. A key supply chain has been compromised, and w…
[dry-run excerpt] Share So the man who once told us “cash is king” and turned our national coffers into his personal ATM has been granted the privilege of serving the rest of his SRC sentence in the comfort of his own mansion. House arrest, they call it. Conditional pardon. Pay the RM50 million and you can go home to Langgak Duta, sleep in your own bed, eat with your family, and watch Netflix while the rest of us s…
[dry-run excerpt] Much before the AI revolution threatened to disrupt India’s IT outsourcing firms, the proliferation of Global Capability Centres (GCCs) of global multinational corporations were already impacting them. For at first glance, GCCs involve in-sourcing and off-shoring of those activities previously performed by these IT firms. This post will examine three questions. What is likely to be the impact of G…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Salman Rafi Sheikh Armed transport in Taliban-controlled Kabul in 2021. Wikimedia photo The Taliban conquered Afghanistan by defeating an insurgency’s enemies, but five years later, their own methods of governing may be creating the conditions for another one. On July 17, anti-Taliban fighters briefly seized the district of Yaftali Sufla in northeaster… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share A comprehensive code of Artificial Intelligence ethics for journalists aims to adapt traditional editorial values in an algorithmic era. The Society of Professional Journalists in the United States has long held that while technology evolves, one core tenet should remain fixed. journalists must be ultimately responsible for the accuracy and fairness of their work, regardless of the tools use…
[dry-run excerpt] The calculations needed to train A.I. are nearly impossible to visualize — but we tried anyway.
[dry-run excerpt] The key to properly implementing the major decisions and plans of the CPC Central Committee lies in people, and we must be alert to “two-faced people” who harbor divided loyalties and whose words and deeds do not match. “Two-faced people” take many forms. Most notably, some constantly proclaim their political loyalty and the “Two Upholds” and respond quickly and loudly when implementation of the C…
[dry-run excerpt] Israeli strategists push decoupling from a waning U.S. as Israel veers toward a ZISIS model and risks internal collapse
[dry-run excerpt] Today, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang offered a vote of confidence in CoreWeave, suggesting the company doesn’t need a financial backstop despite the increasingly ugly selloff in its equity and debt. Sure, Jensen. Pay no mind to CoreWeave’s paper trading at uber-distressed levels. Perhaps Jensen’s comments will be enough to calm the market and stop the selling … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] A quick thanks to the 81 guys (and 17 gals!) who filled in this year’s reader survey. I’ll send out the $25 Bookshop.org vouchers next week, so if you’d like one, you still have a week to tell me a little about yourself . This week, I’m handing over the reins to Sam Hendrix . Sam is one of the most outdoorsy dads I know, and so many of us dream of spending more time outside with the family. But, a…
[dry-run excerpt] Who'd have thunk it? You can believe in science and rationality and also believe in ghosts.
[dry-run excerpt] Non-state actors, aka rebels, are purportedly getting more external support. What are the roots of this shift?
[dry-run excerpt] The amount of code being written at Anthropic continues to rise exponentially. It is being managed by Scion, their internal replacement for GitHub that is better suited to the scale and style of the operation, which they created with a small team in five months. This week also saw the release of two supposed frontier model models. Google has finally given us Gemini 4 Argon, along with a robust saf…
[dry-run excerpt] By Peter Schiff, SchiffGold The economy is bound to eventually reach a point where it can no longer tolerate the interest rates required to keep inflation and debt under control, and some of the loudest warnings are coming from the bond market . The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield recently climbed above 5.3% , reaching levels not seen since 2002. Even more striking, this surge occurred as evidenc…
[dry-run excerpt] Washington’s new income tax on high earners doesn’t take effect until 2028, but it is already generating a lot of activity. A measure on the ballot this November, Initiative 645, would reverse the legislature’s decision, preventing the new tax from taking effect.
[dry-run excerpt] It is customary for Brian to write a post every year explaining the work of the Nobel Prize winner(s) in economics. Brian does a great job with these and thus I should feel no obligation to weigh in. Nonetheless, I occasionally can’t resist (see here and here ). Because I have pretty idiosyncratic preferences, I especially like to write posts highlighting the work of the winners that didn’t get re…
[dry-run excerpt] In a few weeks, voters will have their say in (arguably) one of the most energy-focused elections in US history. This midterms season, the growing grid squeeze ranks as a top issue among candidates vying for seats everywhere from state governments to Congress. To cut through the campaign trail noise, we asked experts in the Energy Central orbit one simple question: What are midterm campaigns getti…