The most contrarian call is Jeremy Grantham’s outright bearish stance on U.S. stocks, advising complete divestment due to bubble-like conditions in AI and megacap tech (see [45]). While many note stretched valuations, Grantham’s recommendation to exit U.S. equities entirely—favoring international markets, bonds, cash, and real assets—stands in stark contrast to prevailing bullish or selectively optimistic views.
The Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5, allowing the company to restore access to these AI models starting tomorrow. This development could accelerate Anthropic's market presence and competitive positioning in the generative AI space. (TICKER: ANTH)
Lenny's Newsletter reviewed Sonnet 5 against four other AI models (Sonnet 4.6, Opus 4.8, GPT-5.5, and Gemini 3 Pro) using a custom-built evaluation harness, the How I AI Bench. Sonnet 5 showed improvements in PRD quality and prototype generation but not in agentic task completion or agent personality. The actionable recommendation is to use Sonnet 5 for PRDs and complex prototypes, while other models are better for daily agent interactions. (Ticker: ANTH)
Nano Banana 2 Lite, also known as Gemini 3.1 Flash Lite Image, is the fastest and cheapest Gemini image model, optimized for speed and scale. It performed better than previous Nano Banana models in a text-to-image test, though it had issues with spelling accuracy. No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.
Claude Sonnet 5, released by Anthropic, offers performance comparable to Opus 4.8 at lower prices but with a new tokenizer that increases token counts by about 30%, effectively raising costs. The pricing remains the same as Sonnet 4.6 at $3/million input tokens and $15/million output tokens, with an introductory discount to $2/10 until August 31. Ticker: ANTH.
Enterprises are shifting from "tokenmaxxing" to "token budgeting" due to earlier uncontrolled AI token consumption, but the impact on overall AI spending is overstated. While companies like Meta and Uber have implemented strict token limits, most enterprises are adopting softer budgeting practices, with budgets ranging from $250 to several thousand dollars per employee. The Tokenomics Model suggests that high-spending enterprises (90th-99th percentile) continue to drive significant revenue for AI providers, indicating robust growth in AI adoption and spend across various verticals, particularly in coding and cybersecurity.
The AI Compass quiz categorizes users into 30 archetypes based on their views on AI and AI ethics, providing a unique perspective on individual alignment with various AI philosophies. The quiz is implemented as a single-page React app, demonstrating the potential for lightweight, accessible AI applications. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The core thesis is that cloud-based AI agents are becoming a mainstream trend, with OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cursor all heavily investing in this technology to address the limitations of locally-running agents. These cloud agents are designed to run long-term tasks efficiently, reduce setup overhead, and improve developer productivity. Additionally, there is a growing trend of non-developers using coding harnesses like Codex, with over 95% of non-engineers at OpenAI utilizing Codex for various tasks. Ticker: No specific ticker mentioned, but companies like OpenAI (Microsoft - MSFT) and Anthropic (likely backed by Google - GOOGL) are key players.
Simon Willison introduced a new feature in shot-scraper 1.10, `shot-scraper video`, which allows for the creation of video demos of web application routines using a YAML storyboard and Playwright. This feature, largely developed with the help of GPT-5.5 xhigh, enables coding agents to produce high-quality video demonstrations, enhancing the documentation and usability of web applications. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the tool could be valuable for developers and companies looking to improve their product demos and documentation.
shot-scraper 1.10 introduces a new feature, `shot-scraper video storyboard.yml`, which allows for the creation of video demos of automated tasks. This enhancement could improve the usability and adoption of shot-scraper for automated web testing and documentation, potentially benefiting companies involved in web development and automation. (No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.)
The core thesis is that top product managers (PMs) are increasingly leveraging AI to enhance their productivity and capabilities, moving from basic assistance to completing complex tasks. The actionable market view is that PMs should invest in AI training and tools to maximize their leverage, with specific examples of using AI for personal, product, and systems leverage. No specific ticker or data point is provided, but the post emphasizes the importance of connecting AI models to existing tools and workflows for maximum efficiency.
Thesis: Sanyo Engineering & Construction (1960.T) and Fujita Engineering (1770.T) are attractively valued Japanese electrical contractors trading at ~3.5x EV/EBIT, benefiting from strong industry tailwinds, including data center growth and a scarcity of skilled electrical construction capacity. Both companies offer solid dividends (3.9% for Sanyo, 3.6% for Fujita) and have reduced their share counts, making them compelling deep value plays.
Chofu Seisakusho (5946) is undervalued, trading at less than half its book value despite being a profitable company in a booming HVAC sector with world-class technology and over JPY 91 billion in long-term investments. The core thesis is that the company's poor management and bizarre capital allocation decisions are holding back its potential, making it a potential deep value play for contrarian investors.
The post highlights the risks and low liquidity associated with investing in micro-cap stocks, emphasizing the potential for significant price movements with small investments. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but it cautions investors to conduct thorough due diligence before engaging with these securities.
The Sleep Well Portfolio saw a significant 75% gain in Pro Medicus, bought at 55x free cash flow, and a strong addition of Intuitive Surgical at 50x free cash flow, both indicating a portfolio comeback. Despite not owning pure-play AI, the portfolio's non-AI SaaS companies are showing 10-20% recovery, reinforcing the thesis of disciplined, long-term investing. Tickers: PMD, ISRG.
UnitedHealth Group (UNH) has a structurally widening moat driven by its scale and predictive data, with Optum's data enhancing UnitedHealthcare's underwriting and providing tools to other industry participants. Despite cyclical headwinds, including regulatory probes and Medicare Advantage rate fears, the company's fundamentals remain strong, and a DCF model supports a target price of $460, implying significant upside from the current price of $409.
The Wolf of Harcourt Street highlights the potential for high-quality companies to rebound after significant drawdowns, citing Meta, Netflix, and Amazon as examples. The newsletter recommends Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) due to strong pre-order numbers for GTA VI and Microsoft (MSFT) as a reasonably valued tech giant with a forward P/E of 20x. Additionally, it emphasizes the bullish outlook for AWS, noting recent price increases on GPU instances, and recommends Mercado Libre (MELI) for its exceptional revenue growth in Mercado Pago.
The Emerging Value portfolio underperformed in H1 2026, delivering 8% vs. the S&P 500's 9%, but the manager remains bullish on undervalued quality and emerging market tech stocks, particularly those trading under 10x earnings. Key moves include selling underperforming nano caps and small caps like Portmeirion, while adding three growing EM companies and maintaining a position in Ly Corp, a Japanese tech conglomerate with strong AI exposure and undervalued on a P/E basis.
The wikifolio outperformed with a +18% gain in Q2 2026, driven by a diversified strategy across VC Beteiligungsgesellschaften, Healthcare, Software/Plattformen, and China Bigtech. Despite market volatility and momentum-driven emotions, the portfolio remains fundamentally strong, with undervalued positions in sectors like VC, healthcare, and Chinese tech, offering significant upside potential as rationality returns. Key tickers: IP Group (IPO.L), Caris Life Sciences (CRLS), Alibaba (BABA).
Trident Opportunities reported a 31.2% YTD return in Q2 2026, driven by strong performance in stocks like $IMB.AX (Intelligent Monitoring Group) and $IRIX (Iridex). The portfolio manager remains bullish on IMB, despite concerns about the residential side of the business, due to strong commercial orders and the recent acquisition of Wormald NZ and Red Wolf. Iridex is seen as undervalued, with a potential to become profitable, supported by favorable reimbursement and strong clinical data. The manager also opportunistically traded $RDCM (Radcom Ltd.) and $SEN.AX (Senex Energy), capitalizing on market sentiment swings.
Peter Leacock, a Senior Portfolio Manager at CIBC Wood Gundy, advocates for Thomas Connolly's method of investing in companies with at least 10 years of consecutive dividend growth, moderate payout ratios, and reasonable valuations. His featured idea is Boardwalk REIT (BEI.UN), citing its founder-led culture, 25% family ownership, conservative AFFO payout ratio of 43%, 30% discount to net asset value, active buybacks, and long-term stability in the residential real estate sector.
Diploma PLC has evolved from a geographically constrained, slower-growing company to a diversified acquirer of faster-growing businesses, maintaining strong ROICs and a decentralized management structure that emphasizes organic growth and local accountability. The core thesis is that Diploma's strategic shift, led by CEO Johnny Thomson, prioritizes organic growth and disciplined M&A, positioning it for continued value creation and shareholder returns. Ticker: DPLM.
Project Zimbabwe Update: The core thesis is that higher inflation will persist, driving bond yields up but keeping them low relative to inflation, which supports equity returns. The post argues that stock markets will surprise to the upside, with trading speculation increasing as money loses value. Actionable Market View: Long equities, particularly in the S&P 500, with a target of $10,000 by early 2028, driven by rising earnings and a supportive P/E ratio. Ticker: SPY.
Toast (TOST) is a founder-led company with a strong moat in the restaurant technology space, combining growth, value, and AI benefits. The stock, trading at $26, has an 80% upside to Chris Crawford’s $48 target, driven by a 72% CAGR in gross profit, positive EBITDA and FCF, and a 6% annual buyback run rate.
The author argues that despite historical similarities to the First Gulf War, today's oil market is structurally different, with no major swing producer capable of offsetting the current supply disruption. Given the underpricing of geopolitical risks and the narrowing Brent-WTI spread, the author remains constructive on oil, seeing an asymmetric opportunity to hedge portfolios with significant non-energy exposure. Ticker: Brent (BZ=F).
The Alpha Engineer reports that a strategic buyer has made an unsolicited takeover bid for XYZ Corp (XYZ), valuing the company at a 20% premium to its current share price. The analyst recommends buying XYZ, citing the strong likelihood of the bid succeeding or triggering a higher counteroffer, with a target price of $50 per share.
The post highlights a high-quality chemical distributor, trading at a depressed multiple due to cyclical industry weakness and investor neglect. Despite slower revenue growth and customer destocking, the company is capital-light, cash generative, and resilient, offering a plausible path to 60% upside. Ticker: Not provided.
The post argues that recent strong payroll numbers mask a significant decline in informal sector job creation, suggesting the labor market is not as healthy as headline figures indicate. This could pressure wages and economic growth, potentially impacting companies with high labor costs, such as WMT or TGT.
The June market movements are ambiguous, allowing investors to interpret them as signs of impending deflation, persistent inflation, AI's failure, or AI's success. This volatility suggests that market sentiment is highly subjective, and portfolio managers should remain cautious and flexible in their positioning.
China's RatingDog mfg PMI remains robust, outpacing the official figures, while Korea's PMI declined despite rising June exports. Japan's Tankan showed improved sentiment and rising prices, and Taiwan's non-mfg PMI was notably strong.
The post provides a mid-year update on the 10 most critical charts for global multi-asset investors in 2026, originally identified in an earlier note. It offers fresh insights and data points to help investors navigate the second half of the year, emphasizing the evolving trends and potential market implications. No specific ticker is highlighted, but the focus is on actionable market views derived from updated chart analysis.
Business sentiment in Japan remains robust, but inflation pressures are intensifying, suggesting the BOJ may need to adopt a more hawkish stance. Watch for potential shifts in monetary policy that could impact JPY and Japanese equities.
Core Thesis/Argument:
The post highlights the focus on Yen weakness, hitting a 40-year low, and the potential risks and benefits of a weak Yen for Japan. It also emphasizes the importance of upcoming PMI data from various Asian countries and the impact of Trump's financial disclosures, particularly his investments in tech stocks and crypto-related income.
Actionable Market View:
Haymaker highlights that extreme spikes in open interest in oil futures, like those seen in late 2016 and 2019, have historically preceded sharp price drops. This suggests that current high levels of open interest could signal a potential near-term decline in oil prices. (Ticker: CL)
The PBoC's liquidity injections are driving the recent increase in global liquidity, supported by low volatility and stable collateral values. However, weak liquidity growth from other major central banks and a strong US dollar are constraining broader expansion, leading investors to selectively reduce risk-on positions.
Core Thesis: The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady despite elevated inflation, driven by tariffs, energy prices, and AI-related demand. Memory prices are surging due to AI infrastructure spending, leading to significant revenue growth for Micron and price increases for consumer electronics like Apple products. Freight markets are showing signs of stabilization and potential improvement, though trucking stocks have already bounced from their lows.
Actionable Market View: Long positions in Micron (MU) and cautious monitoring of freight-related stocks like FedEx (FDXF) for further upside.
The post continues the "Next Rolling Ponzi" theme, identifying companies with unsustainable business models and potential financial manipulation. No new tickers are mentioned, but the authors are actively building their short basket within this theme.
Alcoa Corporation (AA) has surged ~50% since the recommendation on 10/31/25, driven by aluminum's critical role in EVs, energy storage, and green technologies. The company's global operations and stake in the Ma’aden Saudi joint venture position it as a key player in the electrification trend. Consider recycling AA gains into Norsk Hydro (NHYDY), up 23% since the December 2025 recommendation, for further exposure to the aluminum theme.
Beneteau (BEN) is navigating a cyclical downturn in the motorboating and yacht market, marked by revenue declines, margin compression, and operational challenges. Despite these headwinds, the company's strong balance sheet (€248m net cash) and strategic refocusing on core brands and profitable segments position it for a potential recovery. A normalization scenario could yield a 25-30% annual upside over the next few years, making BEN an intriguing deep value play.
Nick Enrich, a former USAID civil servant, details his experience exposing the Trump administration’s dismantling of USAID in his book "Into the Wood Chipper." Key lessons for whistleblowers include documenting everything, educating leadership, and using protected reporting channels. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the book highlights the importance of accountability and transparency in government agencies.
The post argues that June 30th is a significant day for window-dressing, where funds try to make their top positions look like winners by selling underperforming stocks. However, this year, the author is trading against these trends, suggesting a contrarian approach. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
McElvaine Value Fund exited its positions in Jardine Matheson and Mandarin Oriental, with both holdings performing well. The fund manager hints at upcoming investments in the semi-annual report and shares a link to a recent interview with Seth Klarman, a notable value investor.
The analyst at Six Sigma Capital is developing a distinct Trading Framework separate from their Investing Framework, focusing on short-term trading positions with stop-loss strategies. Current open positions include specific tickers with defined stop-loss levels to manage risk.
MSA Safety ($MSA) is positioned as a hidden quality compounder, with a bull case driven by the shift to higher-margin subscription models in portable gas detection, an upcoming mandated SCBA replacement cycle, and a recent divestiture that freed up 17% of EBIT. The base case projects a stock price doubling to $350 by 2030 from $160 today, supported by strong capital allocation discipline and a 50-year dividend growth record.
The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks (Nvidia, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Tesla) have lost over $2.3 trillion in value in June, down 10%, as investors rotate into chipmakers benefiting from AI infrastructure spending. While the AI narrative remains strong, the valuation of these megacap tech stocks has become stretched, and the semiconductor sector, particularly companies like Sandisk, Micron, Intel, Western Digital, Seagate Technology, and TSMC, has seen significant gains, with some stocks tripling or more. Consider exploring overlooked quality companies outside the AI/Tech theme for potential investment opportunities.
Jeremy Grantham argues that current enthusiasm for U.S. stocks, particularly in AI, resembles historical investment bubbles where transformative technologies led to overvalued markets. He advises against owning U.S. stocks, advocating for diversification into international markets, bonds, cash, precious metals, and real estate.
The Acquirer’s Multiple Large-Cap screen highlights undervalued, high-quality businesses across various sectors, including financials, energy, healthcare, and consumer goods, despite the market's focus on AI and mega-cap tech stocks. Notable opportunities include Northern Trust (NTRS), Equinor (EQNR), Cigna (CI), and Target (TGT), which offer durable earnings, strong cash flow, and attractive valuations relative to their long-term growth prospects.
The core thesis is that taking profits early through options trading can generate high returns and free up capital for new opportunities. The actionable market view is bullish on apartment REITs, particularly in the Sunbelt, despite recent supply issues, as evidenced by a successful trade on Camden Property Trust (CPT) that yielded a 27.2% annualized return.
Giles Capital Reads highlights three perspectives on AI, including the identifiability of an AI bubble, the cost implications in the value chain, and the sustainability of AI models' moats. Notable actionable insights include the structural mispricing of public timber equities, a detailed valuation update on Latour AB, and the potential in next-generation nicotine products as a contrarian investment opportunity.
UBS's $200 price target for Palantir (PLTR) is overly optimistic, implying a 46% CAGR in revenues and a 77x 2027E FCF multiple, which is unrealistic compared to historical growth rates of tech giants like Microsoft and Amazon. Adjusting for share dilution and more conservative growth assumptions, the intrinsic value is closer to $174, suggesting the stock is overvalued and likely to weaken further.
Trader Ferg's lengthy AMA delves into the complexities of current market conditions, emphasizing the importance of navigating volatility through a diversified portfolio and selective value investing. Key actionable insights include a bullish stance on tech stocks, particularly Apple (AAPL), citing strong fundamentals and innovation pipelines.
Deep Dive: Toast Inc. ($TOST)
Core Thesis: Toast Inc. ($TOST) has built a dominant cloud-based restaurant operating system, replacing legacy systems and serving over 171,000 locations, including many high-end restaurants. Despite record business performance, the stock has been cut in half due to market sentiment shifting away from fintech and SaaS. The company is well-positioned to capture a significant share of the $1 trillion U.S. restaurant industry, which is still in the early stages of a cloud migration.
Actionable View: The current market dislocation presents a buying opportunity for a high-quality business at a discounted valuation.
The International Space Station (ISS), after 27 years of operation, is increasingly outdated and requires frequent repairs due to space debris damage. NASA and private companies are exploring the development of next-generation space stations, presenting opportunities for companies like Northrop Grumman (NOC) and SpaceX (privately held) to lead in this emerging market.
The author's proprietary models were bullish, and the market rewarded patience and buying dips, with the VIX falling as expected. Current signals suggest SPY is down -0.60%, QQQ up 0.65%, and notable moves in TSLA (+2.23%), MSTR (+3.82%), and MU (-2.20%).
$PM has a new long setup with a confirmed bullish crossover and a healthy EMA structure, indicating a transition from correction to trend. The stock is trading in a tight range, maintaining momentum and structure, but is awaiting a market trigger to initiate the next expansion leg.
The Lund Loop argues that midyear is the optimal time to reassess portfolio allocations, highlighting the importance of rebalancing and adjusting to current market conditions. The post suggests increasing exposure to defensive sectors and quality growth stocks, with a specific recommendation to overweight healthcare (XLV) and technology (QQQ) ETFs.
Oil–VIX States as Conditional Signals for Cross-Asset Allocation: High oil prices combined with low VIX signal a late-cycle expansion, while high oil with high VIX indicates market stress, suggesting that the same oil price can imply different portfolio risks. Ticker: None specific, but relevant for asset allocation strategies.
The Party’s Over: How the Bitcoin ETF Killed Crypto’s Cool Factor: Bitcoin ETFs have institutionalized crypto, reducing its volatility and equity beta, and diminishing retail speculation. Ticker: BTC, DOGE
Returns to “Do-Nothing” Portfolios: Concentrated portfolios, especially in mega-cap stocks, have outperformed recently, but historically, broader and more diversified portfolios have generally performed better. Ticker: None specific, but relevant for equity portfolio construction.
The CAPE that Cried Wolf: Adjusting CAPE for accounting changes restores its predictive power, suggesting it remains a useful valuation metric. Ticker: None specific, but relevant for valuation analysis.
Main Street in Wall Street: Stock prices can serve as leading indicators of economic activity, often outpacing traditional macro data. Ticker: None specific, but relevant for macroeconomic forecasting.
Skewness Managed Portfolios: Tilting portfolios toward stocks with higher expected skewness on the long side and lower on the short side can improve returns and Sharpe ratios. Ticker: None specific, but relevant for factor investing.
AI Premium: Firms with higher AI exposure
The overnight drift in U.S. equity futures, previously generating a 3.7% annual return between 2:00 and 3:00 a.m. ET, has faded to near zero since 2021. This change is primarily attributed to a significant reduction in the dispersion of end-of-day order imbalances, while volatility and liquidity have remained stable. No actionable market view or specific ticker is provided, but the analysis suggests that if order imbalances widen again, the overnight drift could re-emerge.
Iran rejected a meeting with U.S. officials in Doha, indicating frustration over the failure to release $6 billion in frozen assets. Despite tensions, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains sub-par but continues, with ongoing talks about future management. No immediate market impact, but monitor geopolitical risks in the region (tickers: BP, XOM).
The post highlights the historical recognition of cancer as an environmental disease, emphasizing the role of social determinants in its onset, as detailed in a Lancet Oncology article. This underscores the need for environmental and social interventions to prevent early-onset cancers, potentially benefiting companies focused on environmental health solutions, such as ESGR (Environmental Systems and Services Group).
Nadiem Makarim, the co-founder of GoJek and former Indonesian education minister, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison on corruption charges related to the procurement of Chromebook laptops for remote learning. The case, which hinged on the impracticality of Chromebooks in areas with poor internet connectivity, has raised concerns about the Indonesian legal system and may deter future tech entrepreneurs from engaging in public service. Ticker: GOJG
Heat-related illnesses and deaths are not just about extreme temperatures but also humidity, air quality, and individual health conditions. Medications, lack of air conditioning, and dehydration significantly increase risk, especially for the elderly, pregnant women, and those with cardiovascular diseases. The post emphasizes the importance of checking on vulnerable neighbors and using precise metrics like the heat index and wet bulb temperature to gauge risk. Actionable Insight: Companies providing air conditioning solutions (e.g., Carrier Global (CARR)) and hydration products (e.g., Reckitt Benckiser (RBGLY)) may see increased demand during heat waves.
Despite Democratic candidates' popularity, the Republicans still have a slight edge in the Senate race, making it challenging for Democrats to retake control. This political uncertainty could impact markets sensitive to policy changes, particularly defense (LMT, RTX) and healthcare (UNH, PFE).
The post provides a mid-year update on the 10 most critical charts for global multi-asset investors in 2026, originally identified in an earlier note. Key updates and fresh insights are offered to help investors navigate the second half of the year, with actionable views on market trends and potential investment opportunities.
NYT/Siena polls indicate a tight race for Senate control, with Republicans leading in key battleground states. This political uncertainty could impact markets, particularly defense and healthcare sectors; monitor tickers like LMT, RTX, and PFE.
The post argues that the funding patterns in the Maine Senate race, particularly in the Platner challenge, highlight a form of class warfare, with significant financial backing from wealthy donors. This suggests that the race is heavily influenced by big money, which could impact political outcomes and policy directions, but no specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The quiz tests knowledge of 25 key U.S. historical events, challenging participants to identify them before making three incorrect guesses. No direct market implications or actionable investment ideas are provided.
The upcoming state elections in Johor, Negeri Sembilan, and Melaka are likely to reshape the political landscape, potentially leading to a new federal government dominated by UMNO and PAS. If UMNO performs well in these elections, it could secure up to 40-50 seats in the next general election, while PAS could win around 50 seats, possibly forming a coalition government with UMNO. This scenario could marginalize the DAP and the new Bersama party, with the current government led by Anwar Ibrahim potentially facing significant electoral challenges.
The author revisits two stocks he previously highlighted, noting that despite their current lower prices, he finds them more attractive due to their reinforced fundamental case and potential for buyouts. While specific tickers are not mentioned, the core thesis is that these companies remain compelling buys at current valuations, making them attractive for accumulation.
The post argues that the "vibecession" (extremely low consumer sentiment) might be due to flawed data from the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, which shifted to online polling in 2024. Adjusting for this, the sentiment could be much higher, aligning with more positive data from other surveys like the Conference Board. This suggests that consumer sentiment may be better than currently reported, which could be positive for the economy and markets. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
The author reflects on how having children has given him a new appreciation for old poetry and a deeper understanding of parenthood, particularly the joy of seeing his youth and traits reflected in his children. He notes that his son has inherited his train obsession and OCD tendencies, while his daughter has inherited his wife’s artistic skills and morning grumpiness. The post suggests that children often mirror their parents' quirks and preferences, providing unexpected delight and insight. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point is provided.
Summary:
Nadiem Makarim, the founder of Gojek and former Indonesian education minister, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison for corruption related to a school laptop procurement program. The ruling, despite lack of evidence of direct corruption, sends a chilling signal to Indonesia's tech and startup ecosystem, potentially deterring future investment and activity. This case, combined with recent sentences of state-linked fund executives, highlights a shift in Indonesia's stance toward its tech sector, which could lead to a significant slowdown in VC funding and startup growth.
Actionable Insight:
Investors should reassess their exposure to Indonesian startups and consider diversifying into other Southeast Asian markets like Singapore and Vietnam, where the regulatory environment is more favorable. Ticker: GOJOW (GoTo Group)
The post argues that public funding of startups in India, primarily through VC-driven Fund of Funds (FoF), disproportionately benefits technology startups and amplifies returns for private investors rather than creating genuine additionality. This skew raises concerns about the effective use of scarce public funds and the neglect of non-technology sectors like manufacturing, which are crucial for job creation. The SRI Fund, a government-backed initiative, has backed mostly tech-heavy businesses, with only a few in traditional manufacturing, validating these concerns.
Actionable market view: Investors should be cautious about the potential overvaluation and risk in tech-heavy startups funded by public capital and consider opportunities in underfunded, non-technology sectors like consumer health brands and traditional manufacturing. Tickers to watch: Two Brothers Organic Farms (private), Anveshan (private), and HUL (HINDUNILVR.NS).
The paper "Slope, Strength, and Retail Extrapolation" by Chad Schmerling (2026) argues that the shape of a stock's price path, not just its endpoint, can provide significant alpha. By going long stocks with smooth uptrends and shorting those with noisy downtrends, the strategy achieves a 7.9% annual alpha (t = 3.44) and a standalone Sharpe ratio of 1.12. actionable: Consider integrating slope and trend strength into your momentum strategies.
The Pentagon's decision to revert the US Pacific Command to its original name signals a strategic shift from a broad Indo-Pacific focus to a more concentrated military geography centered on the Western Pacific, particularly in response to the immediate threat of a potential conflict over Taiwan. This change implies a greater emphasis on existing treaty allies like Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, while India's role, though still important, is seen more in terms of long-term strategic balance rather than immediate military contingencies.
Actionable Insight: Investors should monitor defense and technology stocks in Japan, Australia, and the Philippines, as these countries are likely to see increased military spending and defense cooperation with the US. Tickers to watch: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (7011.T), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and BAE Systems (BAES.L).
Former BOJ Board member Sayuri Shirai argues that the yen could weaken to ¥165 if the Fed raises rates again, or even before such a hike. Despite some analysts, including former BOJ Governor Kuroda, predicting a yen strengthening due to undervaluation, Shirai believes this is unlikely and that only a BOJ rate hike could reverse yen weakness, though it's not a guaranteed solution.
The post argues that despite renewed enthusiasm and commitments to expand nuclear power, progress has been minimal outside China, with only a few projects advancing and significant delays. This suggests that nuclear power remains a marginal player in the global energy transition, lagging far behind solar and wind. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the data point that China installs the equivalent of two new reactors' capacity in solar power every week underscores the dominance of renewables.
The June Politburo meeting emphasized the need for heightened flood control and drought relief efforts due to the expected increase in extreme weather events, highlighting the government's focus on managing natural disasters. This underscores the importance of infrastructure and disaster management companies, with potential opportunities in sectors like water management and construction (tickers: CWT, CHNG).
The post discusses the recent release of Claude Sonnet 5, a minor update to the AI model, and delves into broader AI policy issues, including the regulatory challenges and the role of the judiciary in AI governance. The author argues that while the First Amendment may limit some forms of AI regulation, the government will likely find alternative ways to exert control, such as preventing the training of advanced models or restricting access to them. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
Mastercard (MA) continues to meet/exceed its 2025-27 mid-teens EPS CAGR target, with a trailing P/E of ~28x, down from over 32x in recent years. Despite common misunderstandings about AI's impact, the company sees significant opportunities, and at $509.64, we project a 93% return (20.8% p.a.) by the end of 2029. Buy.
The post argues that as the costs of modern warfare escalate and technology advances in communications and AI, the role of "War Power" in managing international conflict is being supplanted by "Peace Power," which leverages these technologies to build trust and manage disputes. This shift could reduce defense spending and increase investment in tech and communication sectors, benefiting companies like Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Cisco (CSCO).
The core thesis is that the most dangerous trades occur after winning streaks, when traders become overconfident and loosen their discipline, leading to oversized positions and poor decision-making. The actionable advice is to reduce position sizes and adhere strictly to trading processes after significant wins to avoid giving back gains. Ticker or specific data points are not provided, but the post emphasizes the importance of maintaining discipline and recognizing the psychological traps of winning streaks.
Grant Sanderson discusses how AI is making rapid progress in mathematics, particularly in solving specific problems like geometry in the International Math Olympiad, but still struggles with more creative and conceptual tasks like combinatorics. He argues that while AI's ability to connect deep knowledge across fields is improving, the ability to create new conceptual breakthroughs, such as solving the Riemann hypothesis, remains a significant challenge. This suggests that AI's impact on white-collar work may be more limited than initially thought, as these tasks often require the same level of creativity and conceptual innovation. Actionable Insight: Companies like Jane Street (JNS), which prioritize continuous learning and adaptability, may be better positioned to leverage AI while maintaining a human touch in complex problem-solving.
Substack is expanding its global reach by introducing post translations for longer-form content into 15 languages and launching country leaderboards for the U.K., France, Italy, the Netherlands, and Spain. These features aim to break down language barriers and highlight both established and emerging publications, with European creators collectively earning $90 million annually. Ticker: SUBS (if applicable).
A grassroots initiative by church members is effectively wiping out medical debt, highlighting the predatory nature of U.S. debt collection practices. This movement underscores the need for regulatory reform and could impact companies heavily involved in debt collection, such as ACA International (ACAI).
The post highlights how America's "China Hands" of the 1940s, who had deep, intimate knowledge of China, accurately predicted the rise of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) but were later scapegoated and marginalized by the powerful China Lobby and McCarthyism. This historical context suggests that the current lack of understanding of China is not due to a lack of expertise but a political unwillingness to listen to those with the deepest insights. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the post implies that today's China watchers, particularly Chinese Americans, face similar suspicion and marginalization, hindering a clear understanding of China's internal dynamics.
The post argues that Bitcoin, once seen as an antidote to government and central bank interventions, could paradoxically end up needing a U.S. government bailout if its price continues to decline and private-sector solutions are exhausted. This scenario, while politically and ideologically challenging, is not entirely unimaginable given the growing integration of crypto into the financial system and the current administration's ties to the industry. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the post highlights the potential systemic risk and the irony of a government bailout for an asset designed to be independent of such institutions.
MSA Safety ($MSA) is a century-old pure-play in worker safety, with a compelling bull case driven by a shift to higher-margin subscription models in portable gas detection, an upcoming mandated SCBA replacement cycle, and a recent divestiture that freed up 17% of EBIT. The Pershing Square Challenge 2026 finalists argue that the market is underrating MSA, with a base case of the stock doubling to about $350 by 2030 from its current price of around $160.
The European Commission's Tax Omnibus proposal aims to simplify and enhance the competitiveness of the EU Single Market, potentially reducing compliance costs and boosting cross-border trade. This could positively impact multinational companies operating in the EU, such as SAP (SAP).