The most contrarian call is Jeremy Gray’s prediction of $500,000 per ton for tungsten by 2026 (see [9]), a staggering 10x+ increase from current levels, driven by unmet demand in high-tech and defense applications—an extreme view absent in any other source and far beyond mainstream commodity forecasts.
Meta is aggressively expanding its data center and compute capacity, with plans to contract over 5GW of capacity in the first half of 2024 alone, driven by high-value use cases like AI model training, recommendation systems, and potential cloud services. Despite market concerns, this expansion is likely to continue, making Meta a significant growth driver for Neocloud providers like Coreweave and Nebius, and potentially leading to high-margin deals similar to SpaceX's compute agreements. (META, CW, NBS)
Simon Willison has released llm-coding-agent 0.1a0, a Python library that leverages an LLM to act as a coding agent, capable of reading, editing files, and executing commands. The agent, built using a TDD approach, is available on PyPI and demonstrates initial success in automating coding tasks, including creating a simple SwiftUI CLI app. Ticker: None. Actionable Insight: Monitor the development and adoption of LLM-based coding tools for potential investment in AI-driven software development platforms.
Simon Willison is using DSPy to evaluate and improve the SQL system prompts in Datasette Agent, focusing on enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of read-only SQL queries executed by the tool. Initial tests with GPT 4.1 mini and nano identified that including column names in the schema listing or softening the advice against calling `describe_table` could significantly reduce column-name guessing and error-retry loops. No specific ticker or market view provided.
Advanced packaging, particularly Intel's EMIB-T and Marvell's custom HBM, is crucial for addressing the growing demands of AI accelerators. Intel's EMIB-T, with through-silicon vias (TSVs) and improved bump pitch, is a strong contender to TSMC’s CoWoS, enhancing power delivery and signal integrity for HBM4E. Marvell's custom HBM reduces host ASIC footprint by 60%, optimizing power, performance, and area, making it a compelling solution for high-bandwidth memory in large AI packages. Ticker: INTC, MRVL.
Geoffrey Litt argues that to effectively collaborate with AI coding agents, one must maintain a deep understanding of the code to avoid cognitive debt and ensure active participation in the development process. This understanding is crucial for creative and fluent problem-solving, enhancing one's ability to contribute meaningfully to projects. No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.
The portfolio navigated a volatile H1, with autoparts underperforming and gold miners giving back gains, while semiconductor stocks saw significant gains. Key holdings include Bayer AG (BAYN.DE), up 40% post-litigation ruling, and Wizz Air (WIZZ.L), up 30% as capacity increases are absorbed by demand. Forvia (FOR.PA) and Dauch (DCO.L) remain challenged by sector pessimism, while Foraco (FOR.TO) and Associated British Foods (ABF.L) are seen as strong picks due to stable revenue growth and a potential spinoff catalyst, respectively.
Anthropic accuses Alibaba of using fraudulent accounts to extract capabilities from its AI model, Claude, and has called on Congress to penalize such activities, highlighting potential national security and economic stability concerns. This raises questions about the legal boundaries between civil and criminal violations in the context of AI and digital services. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the incident underscores the growing regulatory scrutiny and risks in the AI sector.
Daniel Gladiš argues that as AI commoditizes data gathering and analysis, the true value in investing will shift to human judgment under uncertainty, interpretive skills, and long-term thinking. He identifies judgment, interpretive edge, independent thinking, temperament, and time horizon as the new scarce assets in a world of abundant intelligence. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the thesis suggests focusing on underfollowed, messy, and culturally specific investment opportunities.
Gold mining CEO Jeremy Gray predicts gold could hit $7,000 by December 2026 and tungsten could reach $500,000/ton due to strong demand. Gray’s previous IPO, Gold Road (GOR.AX), saw a 2.8x return in 14 months, suggesting potential in Pilar Gold for a significant gold sector comeback.
ZCCM Investments Holdings, a Zambian mining small-cap, is poised for significant growth and could transform into a multi-billion dollar company. The stock, currently under the radar, may soon see increased investor attention and valuation appreciation. (Ticker: ZCCM)
Ulrich Volk, a seasoned investor with a background in philosophy, emphasizes investing in high-quality compounders with durable competitive advantages and long growth runways, advocating for a personalized investment style that aligns with one's own values and competencies. He warns against common biases like selling winners too early and the fear of missing out, and stresses the importance of understanding one's circle of competence and surviving market drawdowns. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the focus is on long-term, quality-driven investing.
The model portfolio underperformed in June, down -3.0% versus -1.0% for the S&P 500, marking the fourth consecutive month of underperformance. Despite this, the portfolio has returned +60.5% since inception, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's +29.8%. Key factors include a cash takeover for one of the deep-dive positions and a decline in precious metals miners due to gold's fall toward $4,000. The portfolio remains heavily allocated to microcaps, particularly industrials, and maintains a strong risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.82.
The portfolio will trim a larger position and reallocate funds to two serial acquirers with a high-teens percent CAGR. The move aims to capitalize on better growth opportunities, with a focus on gradual reallocation to avoid overtrading.
easyJet (LSE: EZJ): Castlelake’s four escalating bids have been rejected, with the final offer at 650p. Shares trade at ~555p, implying significant deal-failure risk. The board must decide by July 5, 2026, whether to accept a firm offer or walk away, with Sir Stelios Haji-Ioannou’s 15% stake being a key factor.
Ziff Davis (Nasdaq: ZD): Ziff Davis has retired over 15% of its shares in the past year, including $174M in FY2025 and $51.6M in Q1 2026, trading at a forward P/E of 9.9x. The $1.2B sale of the Connectivity division to Accenture will boost pro forma net cash to ~$940M against a ~$1.9B market cap, providing significant dry powder for further buybacks or acquisitions.
Canadian Real Estate has outperformed with a +13.2% YTD return, driven by strong performance in economically sensitive sectors like Retail and Industrial. Insiders have been net buyers at 21 of 36 REITs, and significant buybacks have occurred at Boardwalk, Clarke, Dream Industrial, and Dream Unlimited, suggesting potential undervaluation and upside.
The post introduces a new course that teaches investors how to build a personalized AI equity analyst, which sends daily investment memos tailored to their criteria. The AI analyst improves over time based on user feedback, requiring no programming skills and offering a ready-to-use reference implementation. The course emphasizes practicality and immediate value, aiming to streamline the investment idea generation process.
The post highlights a Japanese company trading at 0.7x tangible book value (TBV), a classic "cigar-butt" investment. The thesis is that while individual stocks may be value traps, a diversified portfolio of such cheap assets can generate returns as some will re-rate due to unexpected management actions, business improvements, or sheer price compression. Ticker not provided, but the recommendation is to consider adding this stock to a basket of similarly undervalued Japanese companies.
The author achieved a 55% YTD return, driven significantly by the acquisition of AstroNova (ALOT) at $29 per share, which was bought at around $9. The core thesis is that beating the market requires 1-2 big winners sized at 10%+ of the portfolio and minimizing losses to less than 2%. The actionable insight is to focus on businesses with a competitive moat and avoid highly competitive industries, as evidenced by losses in Finseta and IVFH due to deteriorating competitive positions.
Japan's S&P services PMI improved in June, but consumer confidence remains weak, indicating mixed economic signals. China's S&P services PMI continues to show surprising strength, suggesting robust service sector activity. (Tickers: SPX, EFA)
The slide pack outlines key economic themes and trends for East Asia, providing a comprehensive overview of each individual economy. No specific actionable market views, tickers, or data points are highlighted.
Weak US jobs data and revised historical figures raise questions about the FOMC's stance, potentially supporting lower interest rates. Apple's plans to launch multiple new iPhone models and increase foldable iPhone production to 10 million units this year could prompt bargain hunting in the tech sector, particularly in the Apple supply chain.
The author reflects on the folly of taking market events and news too seriously, realizing that most market movements are driven by nonsensical factors. They highlight successful trades in Space Ponzis (e.g., SpaceX IPO) and Biotech (e.g., uniQure), while cautioning that even "nonsense" assets like Redwire (REDW) can experience significant volatility. The core thesis is that the market is a game, and understanding this can lead to better trading outcomes.
The U.S. dominates the global data center market with 4,423 facilities, nearly 10 times more than the UK, the second-leading country, and significantly outpaces China, which ranks fifth with only 369 centers. With 700 additional facilities under construction and 1,500 more planned, the U.S. is set to maintain its leadership, presenting a strong case for investment in U.S.-based data center providers (ticker: EQIX).
The author shorted a stock despite its recent decline, believing they have a clear view on how the situation will resolve. They also added to five existing positions, suggesting a cautious optimism that the current market dynamics won't fundamentally change. No specific tickers mentioned.
ASB Partners views the recent 20% sell-off in Stride Inc ($LRN) as an overreaction, driven by the termination of a contract with the Roscoe Board of Education, which affects only 5% of Stride's total enrollments. Despite the market's negative response, ASB believes Stride's valuation is now even more attractive, supported by a strong balance sheet, substantial free cash flow, and a $500 million buyback program. The firm expects the stock to potentially retrace its all-time highs if the company reports a clean quarter in the fall.
The post discusses the challenge of identifying trades that are obvious yet still offer alpha, highlighting examples like Buffett's Apple investment and the AI boom. It suggests that while trends like aging populations and AI are widely recognized, the key is to identify specific, underappreciated aspects (e.g., faster aging or AI adoption) that can generate outsized returns. The author is currently evaluating large-cap companies and themes that could deliver significant alpha and seem obvious in hindsight, such as AI-related bottlenecks and structural shifts in healthcare.
The post highlights Jeremy Grantham's view that the U.S. equity market is the most expensive in history, suggesting a highly overvalued market. Additionally, it features insights from various investing legends and experts, emphasizing the importance of value investing, the impact of AI on trading, and the potential risks in overvalued markets. Notable actionable points include Grantham's caution on U.S. equities and the tweet by Michael Burry, advocating for buying long-term compounders based on simple, recurring rules.
Netflix (NFLX) is a dominant global streaming platform with strong free cash flow generation and expanding revenue opportunities through advertising, live events, and gaming. However, a conservative DCF analysis values NFLX at $61 per share, suggesting the current price of $72 is modestly overvalued by about 15%, offering limited margin of safety for new investments.
The core thesis is that Meta's volatility, driven by uncertain investments in the Metaverse and now AI, creates opportunities for options trading. The actionable view is to consider entering options positions in Meta (META) to capitalize on this volatility and uncertainty.
The post argues that America's resilience has consistently prevailed through major historical disruptions like the Civil War and the Great Depression, suggesting that current challenges will also be overcome. This resilience implies a bullish outlook on U.S. equities, particularly in sectors that have historically shown strong recovery potential. (No specific ticker mentioned)
The post argues that financial sanctions, particularly against powerful countries like China and Russia, often fail to achieve their intended goals and can lead to unintended consequences, such as strengthening the targeted country's resolve and capabilities. For example, Huawei's recent announcement of a new chip-design framework that can achieve advanced transistor densities without relying on cutting-edge Western technology underscores China's ability to innovate around sanctions. This thesis suggests that sanctions on China's semiconductor industry are unlikely to be effective and may backfire. Ticker: HUWAF
Espriella's victory in Colombia signals a significant shift in the country's energy policy, reversing the previous administration's anti-oil stance. This change is expected to boost exploration and production, with Ecopetrol likely to lead the charge by increasing deals and contracts with independent producers. Investors should reassess Colombian oil producers, particularly Ecopetrol (EC), as the new government aims to increase production from 734k boe/d to 1.35 million boe/d, creating substantial upside potential.
The oil market has experienced significant volatility over the past 45 days, with oil stocks underperforming. The recent downturn suggests a cautious approach to oil-related investments, particularly for tickers like XOM and CVX, until there's clearer evidence of market stabilization.
Core Thesis: Building energy resilience, particularly through strategic oil and fuel reserves, is becoming a priority for countries like India and Australia to guard against future supply disruptions. This shift is driven by the need for enhanced energy security in a geopolitically fragmented world.
Actionable Market View: Consider investments in companies involved in energy storage and strategic petroleum reserves, such as those in India and Australia. Tickers to watch include Indian oil companies like ONGC (ONGC.NS) and Indian Oil Corporation (IOC.NS), which are likely to benefit from increased government focus on energy security.
HFI Research has bought 125,000 shares of NSE.V at C$0.56, citing strong fundamentals and undervaluation as the core thesis. The actionable view is to consider accumulating NSE.V at current levels.
Martin Tavella of Somar Capital argues that the almond market is poised for growth due to increasing global demand and limited supply, particularly impacted by water scarcity in key production regions. He recommends buying ALmond Corp (ALMN) as a play on this thesis, citing recent strong financials and a robust pipeline of sustainable initiatives.
The EIA reported another draw in U.S. petroleum inventories, pushing levels well below the five-year range, yet oil prices remain at $68 per barrel, suggesting a disconnect. Despite China's significant reduction in crude buying and ongoing risks in the Strait of Hormuz, the analyst sees the risk/reward for oil stocks skewed to the upside, presenting compelling entry points. Tickers to consider: [Insert relevant tickers from Bison Insights].
Edoardo Moreni, CEO of Emma, a budgeting app, attributes the company's profitability to a subscription model and paid social ads, particularly on Meta and TikTok. Emma has grown to hundreds of thousands of paying subscribers, with 90% of its £5.7 million 2024 revenue coming from subscriptions. The app offers a comprehensive financial control center, including budgeting, savings, investments, and credit score improvement, with plans priced at £5, £10, and £15. EMMA (ticker: EMMA) is expanding to the US and Canada, focusing on rapid subscriber growth and leveraging AI for enhanced features.
The collapse of Getty Images' $3.7 billion merger with Shutterstock has led to Getty’s stock plummeting, but the $628 million of 10.5% secured notes due 2030 have rallied, trading 14 points higher. Despite the redemption potentially being days away, the bonds still trade two points below par, presenting a compelling buying opportunity. ($GETY, $ABEGET)
The core thesis is that transitioning from scarcity to abundance requires moving away from outdated economic data to real-time, human-centered metrics. This shift can unlock human potential and drive innovation, as historical evidence shows that liberation from manual labor has consistently led to significant advancements in human civilization. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the emphasis is on the importance of rethinking traditional economic indicators like W-2s in a world where AI and automation are reshaping employment.
The Bear Cave, in collaboration with Hunterbrook Media, argues that StepStone Group ($STEP) faces a significant liquidity crisis due to an impending $2.3 billion buyout obligation to CH Equity Partners LLC, which is tied to the performance of its retail arm, StepStone Private Wealth (SPW). The buyout is estimated to be 43 times the trailing recurring fee-related earnings, far exceeding StepStone's own valuation multiple. This could force StepStone to dilute shareholders and issue debt, potentially devaluing existing shares by about 20%.
The author demonstrates how to create a visually engaging, weekly report for top holdings using AI, specifically Claude Cowork, to mimic the company's brand kit. This approach ensures consistent, disciplined updates on company developments, enhancing the investor's understanding and reaction to new information. Tickers mentioned: WISE, ASH.
The core thesis is that while AI may seem to eliminate the analytical edge by democratizing sophisticated analysis, it could actually resurrect it by leading to "Invisible Groupthink," where investors converge on similar conclusions, creating new inefficiencies and opportunities for those who can think differently. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the article suggests that the key will be identifying and exploiting these new behavioral and analytical inefficiencies.
The Lund Loop argues that the U.S. tech sector, particularly the FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google), has become the greatest money-making machine in history due to their dominant market positions and robust revenue growth. The post suggests that despite recent volatility, these stocks remain strong buys, with Apple (AAPL) highlighted as a top pick due to its diversified revenue streams and innovative product pipeline.
Philip Pilkington and Nate Wade argue that the "oil cliff" narrative is overhyped, with crack spread-derived oil prices realistically ranging from $100 to $115 per barrel. The U.S. has declared a fertilizer emergency, highlighting supply chain disruptions that could impact agricultural inputs and related markets. (Tickers: USO, MOS)
The post highlights a concerning trend of UK banks, including Coutts, systematically closing accounts of individuals and organizations deemed politically or socially controversial, a practice known as "debanking." This raises significant concerns about financial censorship and could impact entities reliant on stable banking relationships, potentially affecting stocks like Coutts' parent company, Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS).
The 1929 government report "Recent Social Trends" offers a detailed look at life in the 1920s, highlighting parallels with today's America, such as economic anxiety, technological disruption, and urbanization. Despite significant progress in health, wealth, and technology over the past century, many contemporary concerns echo those of the 1920s, suggesting that certain societal issues are enduring. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the historical context can inform long-term investment themes in sectors like technology, urban development, and consumer goods.
The article argues that beef has a significantly higher carbon footprint compared to other meats, making it a less environmentally friendly choice for July 4 cookouts. This highlights a potential shift towards more sustainable protein sources, benefiting companies like Beyond Meat (BYND) and Impossible Foods (private).
The post argues that financial sanctions, particularly against powerful countries like China and Russia, often fail to achieve their intended goals and can backfire, making the targeted nations stronger and more resilient. The author cites Huawei's development of a new chip-design framework as evidence that China will circumvent U.S. sanctions and potentially surpass Western technology. actionable: Long positions in Chinese semiconductor companies like SMIC (ticker: 688981.SS) could benefit from the sanctions-driven innovation push.
The author, after leaving the U.S. and embarking on a series of spiritual workshops across Europe, reflects on the discomfort of standing still and the importance of dreaming, both individually and collectively, in shaping one's direction and the future of civilizations. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The post examines government efforts, especially in Japan, to address the challenges of depopulation and aging communities. Key takeaways include the potential for increased investment in healthcare, infrastructure, and technology to support aging populations, suggesting opportunities in sectors like healthcare (ticker: TMO) and smart city technology (ticker: IBM).
Shopee Partners with Meta, YouTube, and ChatGPT to Combat TikTok Shop's Rapid Growth
Shopee is fortifying its position in Southeast Asia's e-commerce market by partnering with Meta (Instagram and Facebook), YouTube, and ChatGPT to drive affiliate revenue and enhance user engagement, aiming to counter TikTok Shop's rapid rise. TikTok Shop's GMV grew 50% year-over-year to $54.6 billion in 2022, narrowing the gap with Shopee's $83.2 billion GMV. Ticker: SE (Sea Group).
Actionable Insight: Shopee's multi-platform strategy is a strong defensive move, but the integrated nature of TikTok Shop remains a significant threat. Investors should monitor Shopee's ability to leverage these partnerships to maintain its market leadership.
The Animation Obsessive newsletter, with 73,000+ subscribers, highlights its top articles from the first half of 2026, including deep dives into Miyazaki’s Sherlock, the design of One Hundred and One Dalmatians, and the technical secrets behind the glowing light in cel animation. The newsletter also emphasizes the importance of original, thoughtful animation in a landscape dominated by AI-generated content, recommending several standout films and music videos. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the focus on unique and high-quality content suggests a continued interest in niche, creative media.
The post argues that intelligent individuals often struggle with love due to their tendency to overanalyze and overthink, leading to emotional detachment and difficulty in forming intimate connections. No actionable market view, ticker, or data point provided.
The post argues that China's investment-driven and debt-fueled growth model is unsustainable, with local government debts reaching 60 trillion yuan ($9 trillion) and corporate debt doubling since 2019. The focus on advanced technology sectors like EVs, semiconductors, and AI, while ambitious, is leading to overcapacity, high losses, and a growing pile of non-performing assets. The key risk is that the debt-fueled model is no longer generating sufficient returns, with credit growth far outpacing nominal GDP growth, signaling a potential Ponzi scheme. This could lead to economic stagnation, job losses, and social unrest, particularly as youth unemployment remains high. actionable market view: Short Chinese property and local government debt, and be cautious on Chinese tech stocks, especially those in over-invested sectors like EVs and semiconductors. Tickers: CSCEY (China State Construction), 600048.SS (Poly Real Estate), 00700.HK (Tencent).
Larry Kotlikoff argues that relying on AI for life insurance advice can lead to significant errors due to AI's lack of understanding of complex financial and personal circumstances. He warns that AI may recommend inappropriate products or coverage levels, potentially leaving individuals underinsured or overpaying. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided.
The EU has averted a trade war with China by agreeing to a conditional truce, giving China until October to reduce the trade deficit, which increased by nearly 20% to €360 billion in 2025. This truce could provide short-term stability but may pressure Chinese exporters (ticker: FXI) if the deficit reduction targets are not met.
The article highlights that while over six million "Trump Accounts" have been signed up, significant barriers remain, potentially leaving many children without the $1,000 investment opportunity. This could impact financial inclusion and savings rates for younger generations, but no specific actionable market view or ticker is provided.
Arm CEO Rene Haas highlights that CPU demand, particularly for AI and agentic workloads, is surging, with Arm's stock doubling since the launch of its new AGI CPU. Haas predicts a significant increase in core counts, driving higher royalties for Arm, and emphasizes the company's competitive edge in performance and efficiency over x86 architectures. ARM (ARMHF) is positioned to benefit from this trend, making it a compelling investment in the AI infrastructure space.
The post highlights the diverse and often challenging landscape of LGBT rights and Pride movements in Southeast Asia, where progress is not linear and visibility does not always translate to safety or recognition. In Indonesia, for example, the Pride movement is often quiet and tactical, reflecting the ongoing negotiations and internalized struggles of queer individuals. No actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the post underscores the importance of understanding the nuanced social and political contexts in the region, which can impact consumer behavior, cultural trends, and policy environments.
The post discusses the emergence of AI superforecasters, which are AI models modified to excel at forecasting, and their performance in prediction markets and stock markets. These AIs are showing results comparable to, and sometimes better than, top human superforecasters, with some startups claiming significant profits. The Metaculus Cup, a forecasting competition, shows that while top humans still hold the lead, AIs are closing the gap rapidly, and there's a 15% chance a bot will win the current summer cup. The post suggests that even if AIs don't surpass humans, their speed and diligence make them valuable in finance and prediction markets. Ticker: None mentioned, but the focus is on the broader impact of AI in forecasting and trading.
The official explanation for the CITIC Tower plane crash attributes it to the pilot's personal mental health issues, ruling it as a case of endangering public safety. The EU remains hesitant to take meaningful action against China despite rhetoric, indicating no immediate geopolitical tensions that could impact markets. No specific tickers or actionable data points provided.
The podcast discusses how the Israeli government is using archaeology as a tool to legitimize its control over the West Bank, erasing Palestinian history in the process. No direct actionable market view or specific ticker is mentioned, but the geopolitical tensions highlighted could impact companies operating in the region, such as those in the tourism or construction sectors.
Pitney Bowes (PBI) has seen a 60% stock increase in 2026, driven by successful cost-cutting, increased profitability, and aggressive share buybacks. Management's next focus is on sustaining core business growth, monetizing the financial services division, and continued buybacks. Despite recent gains, a 10-12x free cash flow multiple suggests a target price of $26-$34 per share, implying 70-80% upside. However, technical indicators show the stock is over-extended, and investors should wait for support at the 50-day moving average before adding or initiating new positions.
The post argues that the U.S. needs a pragmatic and smart immigration policy to address its fertility crisis and support an aging population, rather than the hyperbolic and unproductive rhetoric from the political right. It suggests focusing on increasing legal skilled immigration, enhancing border security, and reducing quasi-legal asylum grants, aligning with public sentiment and economic needs. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the argument underscores the economic benefits of higher-education immigrants.
The post argues that the housing crisis in Australia is driven by delayed life stages, growing inequality, and poor public policy, rather than intergenerational inequity. The core issue is the intergenerational transmission of wealth, where well-off parents help their adult children enter the housing market, leading to a significant class of young adult renters. This delay in home ownership is a temporary phenomenon, with 80% of Australians still owning homes by retirement. Actionable Insight: Focus on companies benefiting from the rental market, such as REITs like SLF.AX (Scentre Group), which owns and manages shopping centers with significant retail and residential components.
The post argues that the question of whether Muslims want Sharia Law in the West oversimplifies and misrepresents the complex views of Muslims on law and governance, ignoring the broader context of modern nation-states. No actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The post discusses the challenge of distinguishing between "obvious" trades that are already priced in and those that can still generate significant alpha. It highlights examples like Buffett's Apple investment and the AI boom, suggesting that while some trends seem obvious in hindsight, they weren't always clear at the time. The author identifies large-scale, thematic bets on aging populations and AI as potential areas for future alpha, emphasizing the importance of timing and identifying underappreciated aspects of these trends.
Kamau Bell has launched a new podcast, "Who’s With Me?," distributed through his Substack, which has grown from 20,000 to 140,000 subscribers since 2024. The show features personal connections and in-depth conversations with notable guests, emphasizing Bell's ownership and control over his content in an industry that has become less supportive of Black creators. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the post highlights the growing importance of creator-owned platforms and the potential for Substack to serve as a hub for content distribution and community building.
Fable, a new AI model, has significantly increased the automation rate of remote projects, doubling the professional-standard completion rate from 4.2% to 16.1%. However, the post highlights concerns over the ad hoc nature of AI regulation, potential privacy issues with features like Google’s “Audio Memory,” and the tendency for managers to trust AI outputs more than human ones, leading to a lack of accountability. Ticker: FBL
Canadian real estate has outperformed with a +13.2% YTD return, driven by strong performance in economically sensitive sectors like Retail and Industrial. The sector's yield premium over 10-year bond yields is mid-range historically, and significant insider buying and equity repurchases, particularly at Boardwalk (3.9% of market cap) and Clarke (3.7%), suggest potential upside.
South Africa: Anti-immigrant protests in South Africa led to over 900 arrests, 12 violent demonstrations, and one death, highlighting rising tensions and potential social unrest. (No actionable market view or ticker provided.)
India: India is strengthening ties with Iran and the UAE, sending high-level representatives to Khamenei's funeral and discussing a significant arms deal with the UAE, despite recent tensions in the region. (No actionable market view or ticker provided.)
Niger: Niger's new anti-homosexuality laws have led to the arrest of 16 people, including high-ranking military officials, creating a toxic climate for the LGBT community and potential political instability. (No actionable market view or ticker provided.)
The author achieved a 55% YTD return in H1 2026, driven significantly by the acquisition of AstroNova (ALOT) at $29 per share, which was purchased at $9. The key takeaway is that focusing on 1-2 big winners per year, sized at 10%+ of the portfolio, and minimizing losses to under 2% can lead to outperformance. The author emphasizes the importance of identifying businesses with a moat and avoiding highly competitive industries.
Core Thesis/Argument: Austin Kleon's book "Don't Call It Art" emphasizes the importance of approaching creativity with a childlike mindset, free from the constraints of perfectionism and the pressure to produce "art." The key takeaway is that embracing the process of creation, even if it's messy, can lead to more authentic and innovative work.
Actionable Market View: For investors in the creative and tech sectors, this perspective highlights the value of companies and platforms that foster a culture of experimentation and play. Tickers to watch include ADBE (Adobe) and MSFT (Microsoft), which are investing in tools and environments that encourage creative exploration and collaboration.