[dry-run excerpt] Open Source AI Gap Map Current AI is "a global partnership building a public option for AI", founded as a non-profit at the AI Action Summit in Paris in February 2025 and backed by serious capital ($400m already committed). They launched their Gap Map a couple of days ago - an attempt at indexing the current state of open source AI: The Gap Map v0.1 details 421 products in depth: 266 software tool…
[dry-run excerpt] I just launched my third course, Whimsical Animations, and so far, it’s on track to sell roughly ⅓ as many copies as a typical course launch. It’s a similar story with my two existing courses. Sales are down significantly from last year. There are likely a lot of reasons for this, but I think the biggest is AI. There’s sort of a double whammy with AI: Many people are wondering whether developer jo…
[dry-run excerpt] One of the most interesting tips I got from the Fireside Chat I hosted with Cat Wu and Thariq Shihipar from the Claude Code team at AIE on Wednesday was to let Fable (and to a certain extent Opus) use their own judgement rather than dictating how they should work. The example they gave was testing. You can tell Fable "only use automated testing for larger features, don't update and run tests for s…
[dry-run excerpt] The June edition of my sponsors-only monthly newsletter is out. If you are a sponsor (or if you start a sponsorship now) you can access it here . This month: Claude Fable 5, GPT-5.6, and US export restrictions GLM-5.2 is the new best open weights model Tokenmaxxing is so over Datasette Apps sqlite-utils and shot-scraper and Datasette Miscellaneous WASM projects Other model releases What I'm using …
[dry-run excerpt] Good morning. Every review of the first half of 2026 will open with Korea’s 151% moonshot or the AI names that carried the Nasdaq. Ours opens one market to the west, where the more instructive story played out: a single Chinese market that produced both a 64% winner and a 19% loser at the index level, depending entirely on which wrapper you bought. The half was a referendum on composition, and the…
[dry-run excerpt] Kioxia Remarkable 23% swing from the low today. Kioxia announced the production of 10th Gen 3D Flash at Kitakami 2 today as well as the shipping of samples to customers. I understand UBS also published a note forecasting 28%/11% ASP increase in Q3/Q4 ‘26. Perhaps more important was the slew of notes defending Meta Cloud, which seemed to outweigh the Reuters report today of Meta’s townhall : In a v…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi hunters, Let’s go through the markets and look at a company that has all the signs of a 100-bagger. 1. Bubble Meter In our previous edition , we discussed the rising margin debt. And it keeps on trending upward. Now I do not want to rehash the entire analysis from last time. We talked about the difference between the SP490 and the SP500 , and what all these metrics we track actually mean. Predi…
[dry-run excerpt] In this digest, we bring you the most insightful free online content, curated by the team at MOI Global. This substack aspires to be a platform for your growth, whether you are on the hunt for great ideas, looking to learn from great investors, or building a great investment firm. Meet fellow members and great investors at Latticework 2026 . MOI Global members, scroll down for member news and upda…
[dry-run excerpt] Water Oasis (HKEX: 1161) runs beauty salons, spas and medical-beauty centres in Hong Kong shopping malls under the Oasis, Glycel and related brands. It’s a simple, recurring, high-margin, family-controlled business at a price that’s just too good to be true. The company holds HK$917M of cash against a market capitalisation of roughly HK$749M, carries no debt, and owns a further HK$171M of Hong Kon…
[dry-run excerpt] Disclaimer: This post is not financial advice, and is not a solicitation to purchase or sell any securities. For more info, please review the disclaimer . TL;DR PGY is an attractively valued but opaque and speculative fintech with moderate network effects and the potential for mid-teens growth. Pagaya also has 20%+ short interest, a significant warning sign, so size accordingly. Thanks for reading…
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[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the most comprehensive analysis of the memory sector . This is Part 1 of the Memory Singularity series (Part 1 is free, Parts 2 and 3 will be paywalled). Part 1 establishes the foundation: what DRAM, NAND and HBM are, who makes memory and who now consumes it, how we are entering a $1tn singularity and the debates that decide whether you should own memory. Part 2 delivers the Winners and…
[dry-run excerpt] With the confirmed launch of its first store abroad, a new chapter will be added to the current growth story but what are this international strategy’s implications for shareholders. Let’s unpack the drivers of forward returns for one of our relatively hidden quality compounders. Read more
The core thesis is to identify and hold great businesses at reasonable valuations, akin to Berkshire Hathaway's long-term investment strategy. The actionable update includes new additions to the buy list, the removal of a company due to an increased risk profile, and the purchase of a previously monitored stock.
[dry-run excerpt] Note: this is a new series for free subscribers and is intended to give an insight into the work that goes into The Weekly ChartStorm + provide a little further explanation on charts and concepts. In terms of upsides and bullish-rotations, one area making big moves is small caps . After retesting its big breakout earlier this year small caps have had a strong run. And as previously outlined , smal…
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[dry-run excerpt] Executive Summary This report argues that China needs to devalue the yuan in real, or gold, terms rather than simply revalue it against the dollar. That is a further reason why gold looks set to rise over the medium-term. The central story is not China Shock 2.0, but Capital Wars 1.0: a contest between two rival monetary systems. The United States is trying to preserve a dollar-Treasury order that…
The core thesis is that Chinese retail investors have been a significant driver of gold demand, purchasing 200 tonnes in Q1 2023, more than all central banks combined. This suggests continued support for gold prices, making a bullish case for gold, particularly through ETFs like GLD.
Consumer alcohol preferences are shifting towards ready-to-drink cocktails and imported beers, particularly Modelo. The S&P 500 has seen positive returns for 11 consecutive years, but momentum stocks, especially high-beta momentum, have faced significant declines, with the Goldman Sachs High Beta Momentum Index down over 16% in two days. AI startups are growing faster and operating with leaner teams, and major tech companies like Accenture are trading at their lowest valuation multiples in a decade, reflecting a broader market leadership shift.
[dry-run excerpt] I hope you are well. Below, we provide market commentary and an in-depth portfolio update. Format for what is covered in this Monthly Portfolio Update: Market Thoughts Indices Review Key Indicators SixSigmaCapital Performance: YTD and since Inception Featured Quote Current Positions in size order Closing Thoughts If it is your first time here, ensure to check out what SixSigmaCapital readers are s…
[dry-run excerpt] GFL CEO Patrick Dovigi’s Yacht, the Breakthrough, was caught on camera (quite ironically) today in Sardinia. Check out that water slide! Note: I’ve been extra quiet over the past two weeks, focusing on The Big Move, which I detailed at the tail end of this Wrap . I’ll be back up to nearly full steam next week, with a few other disruptions in coming weeks during various phases of the actual move. T…
[dry-run excerpt] Interesting Links/Reads Many links are sourced from Marginal Revolution ( bold and italics are my own to highlight what I found particularly interesting) An agreement between the U.S. and Kazakhstan has given a group of American investors with ties to the president and the commerce secretary access to one of the world’s largest untapped reserves of tungsten. NYT At the center of the Kazakhstan dea…
[dry-run excerpt] This is part of our ongoing theme series, where we explore mental models from - and for - the deep value universe. Deep Value 101 This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Deep value is a tiny corner of the market. Roughly 11% of listed companies (based on a quick screen on the largest Western markets) trade below 0.75…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to another edition of TSOH Weekly Roundup . Each update features a Chart of the Week, along with a brief discussion on three news items relevant to companies in the TSOH investable universe. Chart Of The Week (from “ Ollie’s: A Good Stock Cheap? ”) Subscribe now Three Notable Items “Comcast Plans Company Split as Competition Escalates” I have waited more than five years for Comcast to purs…
Ian Cassel’s upcoming book offers early access to the first three chapters for pre-orders, while Trung Phan’s piece on Kirkland Signature highlights Jim Sinegal’s role in building Costco’s $90B private-label empire. Chris Mayer discusses the competitive advantage of failure and his new book, *The Investor’s Odyssey*, on multiple podcasts, emphasizing long-term investing strategies.
[dry-run excerpt] I did a walkthrough of the corporate presentation of one of my top ideas. I think you might find it interesting and educational. Let me know what you think! Subscribe now The original thesis is here: And the latest… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Bitcoin hasn’t been doing well lately. Against the backdrop of rising markets, the world’s preeminent digital currency is down nearly 30% this year, having lost roughly half its value since hitting a peak of $126,000 in October last year. “If you plot the ten-year chart, it looks like we’re at the bottom of the latest cycle,” says Michael Saylor whose company, Strategy, is the largest corporate ow…
Andrei Semenov's research introduces a nonparametric Probability Difference (PD) statistic that measures genuine directional predictability in daily stock returns, adjusting for positive expected returns. Small-cap stocks exhibit meaningful predictability with out-of-sample accuracy around 53% above the drift-adjusted benchmark, particularly after positive extreme return days, while large-cap stocks show no significant edge. Ticker focus: Small-cap stocks.
[dry-run excerpt] This essay is by Iulia Georgescu, a physicist and independent scholar researching the history of computational physics, and Venkatesh Narayanamurti, Emeritus Professor of Technology and Public Policy, Engineering and Applied Sciences and Physics at Harvard University. View of Cotopaxi, Frederic Edwin Church (1857) In May 1825 Johann Peter Eckermann transcribed his conversation with Johann Wolfgang…
[dry-run excerpt] Three themes worth adding to your process. Markets Are Blind One of the reasons I’ve always loved the stock market is that it doesn’t ask for your résumé before it renders a verdict. It doesn’t care where you grew up, what your last name is, who your parents were, or how much money you started with. It has no interest in your politics, your profession, or your background. Every morning the opening…
[dry-run excerpt] Before we move on to this week’s watchlist, here’s a quick recap of Week #27 . 📊 Week #27 Recap ✅ $APD downside +1% ✅ $APD upside +9% ✅ $VNOM downside +4% ✅ $HAS downside +3% ✅ $PEP downside +3% ⚪ $PEP upside — Flat ✅ $LMT upside +5% ⚪ $SNPS downside — Flat ✅ $AMT downside +2% ✅ $MDGL upside +2% 8 setups shared. 9 activations generated a move of at least +1%. 100% of activated setups met this week…
[dry-run excerpt] June Recap June is now complete, and the Monthly Momentum Basket closed the month with a +9.22% outcome. At the beginning of June, seven stocks were selected using the same rules-based framework that has been tracked since 2020. Each position started the month with predefined activation, invalidation and extension levels, with no changes made afterward. The basket produced a positive result despit…
[dry-run excerpt] 🔖 MENU 1️⃣ My $ES_F View Weekly – Market Structure & Sentiment 2️⃣ Swing Strategy Weekly Recap 3️⃣ Monthly Momentum Basket 4️⃣ Bitcoin, USOIL & Gold – Weekly ⭐ PRO 5️⃣ My $ES_F View – Daily 6️⃣ Bitcoin, USOIL & Gold – Daily 1️⃣ My $ES_F View Weekly The S&P 500 finished the week with a green inside bar , continuing to trade comfortably above the EMA21W. The broader structure remains unchanged, with…
The post highlights that momentum stocks have lost steam, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.3% and the VIX down 18% this week. Key actionable insights include watching specific price levels, avoiding crowded trades, and noting mixed signals for major tech stocks (SPY -0.60%, QQQ +0.65%, TSLA +2.23%, MSTR +3.82%).
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Partha Narasimhan on Unsplash “What other country would have done this?” — Daniel Inouye “We don’t repeat this every day, but there are 33 words that are very sacred to all of us. We do the repetition a little differently but ‘We hold these truths to be self-evident. That all men are created equal. That they are endowed by their creator certain inalienable rights. That among these are lif…
[dry-run excerpt] Dear all, the 4th of July is here, and today America celebrates Independence Day! The 1776 Declaration of Independence set the stage for Americans to prosper by declaring: “We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. That to secure th…
[dry-run excerpt] That movie was so delightful. The description of the movie: starring Brendan Fraser as the main character Phillip is as follows: “Struggling to find purpose, an American actor lands an unusual gig with a Japanese agency to play stand-in roles for strangers. As he immerses himself in his clients’ worlds, he begins to form genuine bonds that blur the lines between performance and reality. Confrontin…
[dry-run excerpt] On US 250th anniversary celebration, Michael Hudson considers the counter-revolution thesis and the role of slave capital.
[dry-run excerpt] 1. Indian universities have come to dominate the global rankings for research paper retractions, following complaints of plagiarism, fake peer reviews, and other misdemeanours. According to the Retraction Watch database , India recorded 887 research paper retractions in 2025, form 21% of all retractions (second to China with 41%) despite contributing just 5% of all publications, and occupying six …
[dry-run excerpt] Rob Urie addresses common misperceptions regularly promoted by AI touts, of what AI can and cannot do.
[dry-run excerpt] Picture: Sawasdee Thailand Subscribe now Thailand has been ranked eighth in the world for the best healthcare systems in 2026, making it the highest-ranked country in ASEAN, according the NUMBEO Health Care Index by Country mid-year 2026 released July 3 . The announcement highlights the country’s healthcare quality, accessibility and affordability, with officials saying the result reflects effecti…
[dry-run excerpt] Note: this is a new series for free subscribers and is intended to give an insight into the work that goes into The Weekly ChartStorm + provide a little further explanation on charts and concepts. In terms of upsides and bullish-rotations, one area making big moves is small caps . After retesting its big breakout earlier this year small caps have had a strong run. And as previously outlined , smal…
[dry-run excerpt] Share Johorians are deciding their votes—or whether to vote at all—in the Johor State Election on July 11, 2026. Early voting for postal, overseas, and advance voters will take place on July 7 While traditional ceramahs (rallies) continue and parties unveil their manifestos and policies, legacy media no longer primarily shapes or reflects voter sentiments. Much of the real campaign and discussion …
[dry-run excerpt] Can you sort 8 historical events?
[dry-run excerpt] In 1789, the framers of the American Constitution returned to Philadelphia to draft a Bill of Rights to protect the new country’s citizens from the government they had just created. James Madison, drawing inspiration from the English Bill of Rights, the Magna Carta and the Virginia Declaration of Rights, wrote the 10 amendments, which contained some of … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Happy July 4th everyone. May you celebrate safely and happily with all your friends and family. Except for the oil bulls. No oil bulls must suffer with the shame and ignominy of being . . . well energy bulls. No fireworks for you since oil’s continued its slide as the Strait of Hormuz “normalizes.” Given the bevy of information, and the holiday season this weekend, we know you’ve little patience a…
[dry-run excerpt] Sudan The U.N. human rights chief has sounded a “red alert” about the potential for ethnically motivated mass slaughter as Sudan’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group closes in on the strategic city of el-Obeid. Tallies from multiple aid agencies, news organizations and activist groups estimate that tens of thousands of people were summarily killed by the RSF when the group, which has be…
[dry-run excerpt] Part the First: Jessica Wildfire on Apathetic Americans. As a paid-up member of the Professional Managerial Class who came from a thoroughly working-class background, I tend to hear and see things differently from most of my colleagues. An enduring theme among them is “They just don’t seem to care…” Not exactly. From Heads Above Water: […]
[dry-run excerpt] AI : dagli spiriti animali al capitalismo di stato La notizia più interessante della settimana è apparsa sul Ft, OpenAI sarebbe pronta a vendere una quota del 5% al governo americano per un controvalore di circa 45 miliardi di dollari. Altri laboratori di calcolo come Anthropic, il quale pare aver risolto la disputa con il governo Usa al riguardo dell’ultima sua applicazione Mythos dovrebbero segu…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. Upgrade Your Edge on HFBestIdeas.com 🚀 Stop spending hours sourcing and digesting Hedge Fund letters. Let HFBestIdeas do the manual work for you and turn over more rocks in less time. Try any premium plan free for 7 days: The Associate ($19/mo): Full access to our pitch database + Quarterly …
[dry-run excerpt] The tumor microenvironment (TME) , composed of immune cells, fibroblasts, and endothelial cells, has emerged as critical to pathogenesis, prognosis and treatment for cancer (schematic Figure below). There’s no such thing as TMI (too much information) for TME! Yet there’s still no way of assessing it in the clinic by a blood test, and even by invasive biopsy the sampling bias for TME without broade…
[dry-run excerpt] 📰 Kelowna News - 07_03_26 *Bonus Bookmark:* All the news from all the sources for Kelowna. 💡 Did You Know? Okanagan Lake is deeper than it looks. Seismic data shows the bedrock floor sits nearly 650 m below sea level. With nearby plateaus rising 1,000 m to 2,500 m, removing the 800 m of glacial sediment would reveal local relief deeper than Scotland’s Loch Ness, and greater than the Grand Canyon. …
[dry-run excerpt] The blip is over. We have Fable back. Utah teapot : happy fable/mythos easter Wednesday, to those who celebrate Here is the official letter restoring Fable , great job everyone. Notice it is addressed to Tom Brown, not to Dario Amodei. Anthropic had to make the controls more stupid for now, but this is a big win. j⧉nus : YES!!! I'm really proud of Anthropic for their successful negotiation with th…
[dry-run excerpt] It’s always either peak optimism or peak pessimism in the AI world. Last month was relatively tame for AI, as all the attention was captured by the SpaceX IPO . Memory trade is still going strong, with Micron coming out with a monster quarter and SK Hynix filing the largest ADR listing in history. What’s more interesting is the shift in mainstream sentiment. It has moved from “AI investment is set…
Dr. Tomoaki Takei's book "The Life Expectancy Gap Trap" argues that aging populations can improve their health outcomes and longevity by making better medical choices and forming stronger relationships with trusted doctors. This highlights the growing importance of personalized healthcare and could benefit companies like Teladoc (TDOC) that offer telehealth services and personalized medical advice.
The post discusses a nonparametric sign-prediction rule developed by Andrei Semenov that measures the genuine directional predictability of daily equity returns, adjusting for the mechanical component of positive expected returns. Key findings include: small-cap stocks exhibit meaningful directional predictability with out-of-sample accuracy around 53% above a drift-adjusted benchmark, while large-cap stocks show no significant edge. Predictability is higher after positive extreme return days for small-caps, suggesting a behavioral disposition effect.
The Proximities Podcast's Episode 6 featuring British-Palestinian commentator and political economist Kieran Andrieu had a broken YouTube link, but it has been corrected. The episode is still available on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. No actionable market views or tickers provided.
[dry-run excerpt] Reminder : I am using multiple translations; my main reading is from the hardbound copy of the Mansfield translation. When I refer to page numbers it’s to the Mansfield translation, and when I want to pull quotes that are longer I’ll use the online Schleifer translation, so the text may not match exactly but they are close (and I also read French so I calibrated across the translations to get comf…