The most contrarian call is in [3], which identifies a Japanese business trading at 0.1x FCF due to a temporary, rapidly repayable liability distorting its EV. The thesis that this distortion will unwind in under two years—freeing up full FCF and potentially revaluing the stock 30x higher—is highly specific and extreme, standing out in a landscape of more conventional value or rotation plays.
Today’s coverage escalates prior concerns about AI financing (e.g. [AI's Financing Shadows] follows [michaelwgreen.substack.com, 2026-06-07] on the shift from valuation to financing risk), confirms the Japan value narrative (e.g. [Mission-Critical Japanese Business] builds on [Mr Deep-Value, 2026-06-25]’s 4.2x FCF thesis), and intensifies skepticism on China’s recovery (e.g. [No, China did not manage to avoid a crash] directly contradicts [East Asia Econ, 2026-06-19]’s “bottoming out” thesis).
Simon Willison has delayed the sqlite-utils 4.0 stable release due to significant updates, including support for compound foreign keys and case-insensitive column names, which required extensive changes. This update, leveraging AI tools like Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.5, enhances sqlite-utils' functionality and compatibility with SQLite conventions. No specific ticker or market view provided.
Ticker: $HEM.ST
Thesis: Hemnet is a dominant Swedish real estate listing platform with strong pricing power and high margins, but its ownerless governance structure and single-country focus pose significant risks. Despite declining listing volumes, ARPL growth continues, driven by premium pricing tiers. However, the lack of a constitutional anchor and potential regulatory scrutiny make it a speculative position.
Actionable View: The current market price of 87.9 SEK per share implies a very optimistic outlook, assuming 40% ROE and 5% growth, which may be unsustainable. Consider adding to a watchlist but avoid large positions until governance risks and cyclical pressures are better understood.
The post highlights a Japanese business trading at an extremely low 0.1x FCF due to a large, rapidly repayable liability that is distorting its EV. Once this liability is paid off in under two years, the company's FCF will become fully available, potentially revaluing the stock at a more normal 3-4x FCF multiple. The company is also exploring AI opportunities, which could add bonus revenue without additional capex. Ticker not provided.
The Latticework Monday Morning Briefing highlights several high-quality or cyclical businesses marked down due to AI-related fears, with Constellation Software (CSU) and Austco Healthcare (AHC) presenting compelling value propositions. CSU, down 50% on AI disruption fears, offers a 6.3% FCF yield, while AHC, a debt-free micro-cap, trades at 7.8x EV/EBITDA with an 18.6% FCF yield and potential growth from a US hospital rollout.
Core Thesis: The analyst sees value in Poland, particularly in Allegro (ALE), which reported strong Q1 results with 24% Adjusted EBITDA growth and is expanding into fintech and health services. Allegro is positioned to become a market darling despite a forward P/E of 18, given its large user base and growing fintech segment. Halyk Bank (KAZ) in Kazakhstan is also highlighted, trading at 4x earnings with a 12-14% yield and a P/B of 1.1, offering exposure to the energy and mining sectors.
Actionable View: Buy Allegro (ALE) for its strong growth and fintech potential, and consider Halyk Bank (KAZ) for its attractive valuation and yield.
Securitize Inc (PRIV) is positioned as a leading regulated infrastructure provider for tokenized real-world assets, benefiting from the growing interest of traditional financial institutions and crypto-native investors in this space. If the trend of asset tokenization continues, Securitize could emerge as a significant beneficiary, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
Best Anchor Stocks highlights an ongoing market rotation away from frothy sectors like semiconductors towards more undervalued areas like healthcare and software. The portfolio manager has positioned 30%+ of their portfolio in healthcare, which has contributed to a 3.4% return this week, outperforming the S&P 500. The thesis is that this rotation will continue, making healthcare and software attractive sectors for investment.
Evolution AB ($EVO) is undervalued despite regulatory and cybercrime headwinds, with a current valuation that ignores the company's resilience and long-term growth potential in online casino. The stock trades at SEK 678, representing an 8.5x TTM EV/EBITDA multiple, while our DCF model suggests a fair value of SEK 778, implying a 15% upside and a 15.3% IRR.
The Alpha Engineer highlights a significant shift in market sentiment towards renewable energy stocks, driven by recent policy changes and technological advancements. The post recommends increasing exposure to companies like First Solar (FSLR) and NextEra Energy (NEE), citing strong fundamentals and favorable regulatory tailwinds.
The Alpha Engineer's stock ranking model, which targets microcaps and small caps globally, has identified new top stocks entering the top 5% of the ranking. The model portfolio is heavily weighted towards microcaps (80%), particularly those between $20M and $50M, which are key drivers of excess returns. actionable tickers and specific rankings are provided to subscribers.
Meta's exploration of a standalone cloud computing business raises questions about AI infrastructure demand, while Korean equities sold off due to memory competition concerns. U.S. payroll growth slowed, reinforcing moderating hiring trends, and financials outperformed as 10Y bond yields rose, making fixed income a tough play. The S&P 500 remains expensive, with earnings expectations and profit margins near record highs, posing downside risk if they revert to historical averages.
The June labor market report disappointed expectations, confirming that job growth and wage gains remain weaker than anticipated. This challenges the optimistic narrative of a rapidly tightening labor market and suggests continued Fed caution on rate hikes, potentially benefiting bond markets (TLT).
Upstream prices in China declined at the end of June, reflecting the global drop in oil prices. Japan reported a modest positive output gap, while Taiwan's FX reserves fell moderately in June. No specific ticker, but consider monitoring Chinese energy stocks (e.g., PetroChina, Sinopec) for potential buying opportunities due to lower input costs.
Japan shows clear signs of accelerating activity and inflation, making it the strongest cyclical play in East Asia. Korea and Taiwan are also seeing broadened economic activity driven by the semiconductor export boom. (Tickers: 7203.T, 005930.KS)
The post argues that market bubbles typically burst due to liquidity issues, not high valuations, highlighting repo spreads, Treasury-market volatility, and corporate funding costs as key indicators. Global liquidity has slowed but appears to have stabilized, suggesting no immediate crash but warranting close monitoring of these indicators.
The post highlights the importance of monitoring economic data releases and geopolitical events in the coming week, particularly the impact on market volatility. It suggests staying cautious and maintaining a defensive stance, with a focus on high-quality stocks and sectors less sensitive to economic downturns, such as consumer staples (XLP) and healthcare (XLV).
1035 Capital Management's weekly update highlights Bimergen Energy Corporation (BESS) as a promising small-cap stock transitioning from stranded power to scalable profits. The report also emphasizes the value of their Small Cap Report, which provides proprietary data and top-performing small-cap stocks by sector.
The portfolio manager is refining their investment approach to balance short-term opportunism with long-term value, exemplified by more aggressive position sizing in Dollar Tree (DLTR) and Peloton (PTON) during significant price dips. The updated strategy aims to maintain a core portfolio of about ten stocks with a minimum 5% weighting, while opportunistically increasing exposure to 2-4 high-conviction names to 10%+ when justified by market conditions.
Six Sigma Capital highlights several high-upside trade setups with compelling risk-to-reward profiles, including recent successful trades like ASTS (74 to 130), FLY (32 to 62), and ORCL (160 to 250). The post emphasizes the importance of setting alerts and using a strict stop-loss strategy, such as 1 ATR or a violation of key support levels, to manage risk effectively.
VeriSign (VRSN) trades at a high EV/EBIT multiple of 24.7x and has a FCF yield of 3.7%, with a market cap of $23.51 billion. The company has more liabilities than assets, raising concerns about its financial stability.
The post questions whether the AI boom is a real estate bubble and highlights a short report on StepStone Group by The Bear Cave Substack. It also notes the ongoing takeover wave of UK companies and a deep dive into Costco's Kirkland brand's growth.
Bill Ackman emphasizes investing in predictable, durable growth companies with strong cash flows and competitive advantages, rather than chasing speculative AI stocks. He believes Microsoft (MSFT) offers an attractive combination of business quality and valuation, making it a core holding in his portfolio. Ackman's disciplined approach focuses on long-term predictability and sensible valuations, even amid the current AI investment boom.
The post outlines three pillars to reduce risk when selling options: 1) the stock is already undervalued, 2) the option strategy (put or covered call) creates a cheaper entry price, and 3) the collected premium further reduces the entry price. For example, if a stock with a fair value of $120 trades at $100, selling a $90 put for $4 results in an effective entry price of $86, providing a 28% discount to fair value and significant margin of safety.
Joel Greenblatt's portfolio, valued at $32.65 billion, emphasizes systematic value investing with a highly diversified approach, featuring significant exposure to broad-market ETFs and large-cap tech stocks. Key changes include a substantial increase in Apple (AAPL) and NVIDIA (NVDA) positions, while trimming Amazon (AMZN) and reducing short-term Treasury exposure, indicating a shift towards equities.
Core Thesis/Argument:
Giles Capital highlights Vusion SA and Kaspi.kz JSC as top picks. Vusion SA, the global leader in electronic shelf labels, is undervalued at 5x EBITDA with €439m in net cash and a €1.7bn order backlog, contradicting the 2027 Walmart cliff narrative. Kaspi.kz JSC, Kazakhstan's super-app, offers an 8% dividend yield and is expanding into Turkey, trading at 6.8x earnings.
Actionable Market View:
Buy Vusion SA (VU PA) and Kaspi.kz JSC (KSPI US) for their strong fundamentals and growth prospects.
Brian A. Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, argues that behavioral finance can identify dislocated valuations in Smid-cap stocks, offering significant upside potential. He believes the current market environment, with large multi-strats creating short-term dislocations and the Russell 2000 poised for outperformance, is ideal for this strategy. An actionable idea is to look for Smid-cap names with catalysts that can resolve these dislocations, such as EHC (Encompass Health).
Ticker: Not specified
Thesis: Bison Insights identifies a deeply discounted small-cap oil & gas producer with significant upside potential driven by two catalysts: continued success in new oil development with improving well results and a deep inventory of locations, and improved local natural gas pricing due to emerging data center loads and LNG export growth. The company's low valuation and exposure to these catalysts could lead to a multi-bagger return, even without a rise in oil prices.
The core thesis is that the residual value of hyperscaler data center buildings, often assumed by the market, may be overstated due to rapid technological changes and increasing density requirements, making it difficult for older buildings to adapt without significant, time-consuming, and costly retrofits. This poses a significant refinancing risk for bonds backed by these assets, especially those with high residual basis and low adaptability. actionable view: Be cautious with corporate-format data center debt, particularly those with high residual exposure and limited upgrade paths.
The author argues that patient investors can capitalize on market overreactions by buying high-quality companies at discounted prices. Specifically, they are buying a stock that has been consistently mispriced due to analysts' negative forecasts, despite its strong historical performance and compelling AI capabilities. Ticker not provided, but the company is described as a top-performing stock with double-digit growth and a history of reinventing itself.
Adverse Selection Eats the Spread: Market makers in CME futures capture a small spread but lose almost the same amount to adverse selection, resulting in near-zero profit. Under market stress, losses exceed the spread, making passive liquidity provision a break-even or losing proposition. (CME futures)
Disagreement and Returns: Disagreement about company fundamentals predicts lower future returns (0.7% per month), while disagreement over noise has no predictive power. Crude aggregate measures of investor disagreement can mislead, as they often track sentiment rather than true disagreement. (No specific ticker)
Bond ETF Fragility: Bond ETFs dislocate from their NAV during market stress due to the costly redemption process, not investor redemptions. The deepest discounts occur in safer, more liquid segments, highlighting the structural risk in ETFs. (Bond ETFs, e.g., MUB, AGG)
Enduring Influence of Openness: Cities opened to foreign trade in 19th-century China continue to exhibit higher risk-taking behavior, as evidenced by historical and modern investment patterns. This suggests regional risk appetite is culturally inherited. (No specific ticker)
In 1963, Warren Buffett invested in American Express during the salad oil scandal, seeing the company's strong underlying business despite the fraud. This pivotal investment marked Buffett's shift from value investing to focusing on companies with durable competitive advantages, highlighting the importance of brand resilience and long-term fundamentals. Ticker: AXP.
The travel sector saw a strong rebound last week, with the coverage universe moving from -5.2% to +8.1%, driven by softer U.S. jobs data that reduced Fed tightening expectations. Key events include MGM China's strategic expansion through the acquisition of a mainland China hotel management business from MGM Resorts (MGM -5.2%) and Ryanair's record June traffic of 21.2 million passengers.
The FDA's granting of Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) status to PMI's ZYN nicotine pouches is a significant milestone, but it may not significantly bolster ZYN's market position due to strong competition. However, the MRTP status could boost broader adoption of nicotine pouches and signal the FDA's positive stance on the category, despite regulatory challenges and public health concerns. (Ticker: PMI)
Summary:
The Bear Cave highlights two short-selling targets: StepStone Group (STEP) and Tarsus Pharmaceuticals (TARS). StepStone is accused of inflating growth through fees on unrealized gains and faces a $2.3 billion liability to CH Equity Partners. Tarsus is alleged to violate anti-kickback laws by subsidizing copays for its XDEMVY eyedrop, leading Culper Research to predict a decline in TARS shares.
The post argues that "hypersociality," or an extreme focus on social connections and group dynamics, can explain why elites often appear incompetent yet maintain power, potentially reconciling perceived stupidity with top-down conspiracy theories. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The post suggests that Beijing's new ethnic unity law is a response to increasing attacks on Chinese infrastructure projects, potentially escalating tensions with the U.S. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but investors should monitor geopolitical risks that could impact Chinese and U.S. companies involved in infrastructure and international projects.
Iran's stance is hardening amid funerals for the Supreme Leader and other martyrs, escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This could impact oil prices and supply, suggesting a cautious approach to oil-related investments, particularly in companies with exposure to the region (e.g., BP, XOM).
The post argues that Europe's economic and geopolitical challenges stem from its self-inflicted wounds, such as austerity and energy dependence, rather than external threats like China. Europe's strategy of aligning with the U.S. against China is seen as a form of self-harm, driven by a post-modern focus on values over practical considerations. The actionable market view is that European industries, particularly in Germany, may continue to underperform due to these structural issues, making it prudent to avoid or short European industrial stocks (e.g., Siemens, SAP).
The article challenges readers to spend 10 uninterrupted minutes observing a piece of art, specifically the ceiling at Grand Central Terminal, to appreciate its intricate details and historical significance. While this exercise is more about mindfulness and cultural appreciation, it doesn't provide actionable market insights or specific tickers.
The post highlights two key points: 1) grantmaking.ai has launched a $1M grant round for AI safety projects, with applications due by July 13th, and 2) StopTheRace.AI is organizing a protest in San Francisco on July 11th, demanding AI companies pause development if all major players, including China, agree to do so. No specific actionable market views, tickers, or data points are provided.
The post argues that China did experience an economic crash following its real estate bust, contrary to claims of uninterrupted growth. Despite official data showing positive GDP growth, alternative indicators and independent analyses suggest that China's economy contracted in 2022 and grew much more slowly in 2023, with significant impacts on employment and inflation. The author suggests that while China's financial stabilization policy has been effective in the short term, it may lead to long-term inefficiencies and lower productivity growth. Actionable Insight: Investors should be cautious about China's official economic data and consider the risks of over-reliance on financial stimulus, particularly in sectors like manufacturing. Ticker: None specific, but consider underweighting exposure to Chinese real estate and related sectors.
Hogy Medical (JP:3593) - Post Mortem
Hogy Medical, a leading Japanese manufacturer of medical products, was a long-term investment that generated a 10% CAGR from around 1,700 Yen in 2012 to 6,700 Yen when it was taken private by Carlyle in 2025. The stock's journey was marked by initial undervaluation, corporate governance issues, and operational challenges, including margin compression and high CAPEX. Despite these hurdles, the investment was buoyed by a low starting valuation and the eventual involvement of activist investors, which culminated in a private equity buyout.
Southeast Asia, particularly Singapore, is emerging as a robotics hub with a focus on practical applications rather than core technology development. Notable examples include dConstruct’s $125 million Series A for 3D navigation solutions and Spinoff Robotics' acquisition by Nanoveu. This trend is supported by Singapore’s government initiatives and partnerships, positioning the region for significant growth in robotics deployment. Actionable Insight: Investors should consider opportunities in Southeast Asian robotics startups, especially those with practical applications and government backing. Ticker: Nanoveu (ASX: NVU)
President Prabowo Subianto’s Danantara sovereign wealth fund, intended as a key driver of Indonesia’s economic future, is facing a growing trust deficit due to concerns over transparency and governance. This skepticism could undermine its ability to attract investments and achieve its strategic goals, potentially impacting the fund’s performance and Indonesia’s economic outlook. (Ticker: None)
Malaysia's labor market is increasingly segmented, with a growing reliance on contract labor and foreign workers for low-skilled jobs, leading to poorer conditions and suppressed wages for local B40 workers. This two-tier system, driven by cost-cutting measures and outsourcing, undermines job security, pension rights, and long-term financial stability for Malaysian workers, particularly in sectors like cleaning, security, and maintenance. actionable market view: Investors should be cautious with companies heavily reliant on this labor model, such as GLCs like UEM Edgenta (UEM), as regulatory and social pressures may lead to higher labor costs and operational disruptions.
The AI trade is exhibiting extreme bubble characteristics, with both valuations and earnings significantly above historical norms, suggesting a potential market correction. The key to sustaining the bubble lies in the development of commercially viable AI applications; if these fail to materialize, the market could see a rapid and severe downturn, particularly in sectors like autonomous driving, software development, and healthcare. Tickers to watch: MSFT, META.
The post is a general open forum for discussion with no specific thesis or actionable market view. It mentions the author's transition to using Substack for blogging and a monthly newsletter, as well as a presence on Mastodon.
The post discusses the growing perception in China of relative U.S. decline, particularly in the context of U.S.-China relations and the broader geopolitical landscape. Key points include cautious optimism about the U.S.-Iran agreement, concern over Europe as a more immediate economic-strategic threat, and the impact of new Chinese outbound investment regulations (State Council Order 837) that could blacklist foreign entities discriminating against Chinese investors. The analysis also highlights internal economic and social challenges in China, such as weak domestic demand and over-competition. Actionable Market View: Monitor European trade tensions and the implementation of State Council Order 837, which could affect global investment flows and trade relations. Ticker: None specific, but focus on sectors exposed to European trade and Chinese outbound investment, such as industrials and technology.
A new paper demonstrates that a "skewness-managed" overlay, which tilts long positions toward high-skewness stocks and short positions away from them, can significantly enhance returns across 18 anomalies, boosting average annual returns by 5.45 percentage points and performing especially well during recessions. Another study shows that integrating coskewness into momentum strategies can reduce max drawdowns by 61% and improve the Sortino ratio from 2.81 to 3.56, making momentum less volatile and more profitable.
The post highlights that despite technological advancements, character and critical thinking remain essential. It also notes that positive market sentiment may be masking underlying resets, and EV batteries are performing better than expected over extensive use. No specific actionable market views or tickers are provided.
The post argues that AI companies are facing significant financing challenges, with private valuations coming under pressure and public markets showing skepticism. This environment suggests a potential slowdown in AI innovation and investment, making it crucial for investors to be selective, favoring companies with strong cash positions and proven revenue models, such as NVIDIA (NVDA).
Brian A. Finn, CIO of Findell Capital Management, argues that behavioral finance can identify dislocated valuations in Smid-cap stocks, leading to significant outperformance. He highlights the current market environment as favorable for small caps, with multi-strats creating dislocations due to their size and short-term trading. An actionable view is to look for undervalued Smid-cap names with potential catalysts, as the Russell 2000 is poised for outperformance.
The core thesis is that collective suffering stems from the delusion that meaning and purpose are external and pre-defined, rather than something we create internally. This delusion often leads individuals to be exploited by institutions, movements, or ideologies that offer a prescribed purpose. The actionable insight is to critically evaluate any external purpose being offered and to focus on creating personal meaning, which can reduce susceptibility to exploitation and promote genuine well-being. No specific ticker or market view is provided.
The post discusses the historical significance of the Guthrie Dawn Raid in 1981, where Malaysia successfully acquired control of the British-owned Guthrie Corporation through a strategic and legal takeover on the London Stock Exchange. This event marked a pivotal moment in Malaysia's localization of colonial-era assets without resorting to force or nationalization. The actionable insight is to consider the current holding of MP Evans Group PLC (LON: MPE), a British company focused on sustainable Indonesian palm oil, which may be of interest to funds concerned with corporate governance and sustainability in Southeast Asia.
Martin Armstrong's report suggests a looming sovereign debt crisis in the Middle East, particularly affecting countries that borrowed heavily during the COVID-19 pandemic, such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Oman. The crisis could lead to reduced investments in the U.S., including the AI stock bubble, and potential liquidation of U.S. assets to fund rebuilding and military rearmament. Specific stocks to consider for retail investors include Indonesian banks like Bank Negara Indonesia (IDX: BBNI) and high-growth tech firms like VKTR Teknologi Mobilitas Tbk PT (IDX: VKTR).
Adverse Selection Eats the Spread: Market makers in CME futures earn a spread that is almost entirely offset by losses from better-informed traders, resulting in near-zero profit. Under market stress, losses exceed the spread, making passive liquidity provision a break-even or losing proposition. (No specific ticker, but relevant for futures trading in crude oil, S&P 500, etc.)
What Investors Disagree About: Disagreement about a company's fundamentals (earnings, valuation, prospects) predicts lower future returns (0.7% per month), while disagreement over noise and chatter has no predictive value. This highlights the importance of distinguishing between types of investor disagreement in sentiment analysis. (No specific ticker, but relevant for stock analysis and sentiment-based trading strategies)
Instant Liquidity, Latent Risk: Bond ETFs can dislocate from their net asset value during market stress due to the fragility of the redemption mechanism, not investor outflows. This is particularly evident in safer, more liquid segments, where discounts can be as high as 8% during crises. (No specific ticker, but relevant for bond ETFs, especially municipal bond ETFs)
Enduring Influence of Openness on Risk-Taking: Cities that were forced open to foreign trade in 19th-century China continue to exhibit higher risk-taking behavior in investment, even 170 years later. This cultural legacy affects modern investment patterns, suggesting that regional risk appetite is partly inherited. (
The author's top sectors for the rest of 2026, beyond psychedelics, are not specified in the post but are hinted to be undervalued and poised for significant upside. The psychedelics sector, particularly stocks like Compass Pathways (CMPS) and Definium (DFTX), has already seen substantial gains of 100%+ and 200%+ respectively, validating the author's earlier thesis.
The post argues that the U.S. founding document's emphasis on the "pursuit of happiness" as a verb, rather than a state, is the cornerstone of American exceptionalism and economic prosperity. The author contends that the current economic and social systems are failing to protect this pursuit, particularly for lower-income Americans, leading to a participation crisis where many are unable to engage in the activities that drive collective advancement. The actionable insight is that addressing the economic participation line (estimated around $140,000 for a family of four) is crucial for restoring the foundational principle and ensuring the economy's long-term health.