[dry-run excerpt] She's my sweet little thing, she's my pride and joy She's my sweet little baby, I'm her little lover boy Stevie Ray Vaughan Markets have been extremely rough the past month; I’ve not really done much at all, and as a result, have not written about much either. Nevertheless, under the hood, there are quite a few interesting developments in certain stocks, as well as some new things of value worth s…
[dry-run excerpt] “ Alpha resides in complex, structurally changing domains that require on-the-ground, global intelligence gathering . ” We attended the inaugural edition of Sohn Tokyo at the Roppongi Hills Club in Mori Tower today. The main event was standing room only and featured Sohn format stock pitches from the following investors: It was a great mix of styles in the lineup ranging from classic value in Ruan…
[dry-run excerpt] I love market downturns. When a stock drops in price, there can be 3 causes: There’s an overall market reason It’s related to a specific sector It’s the company itself For each of these 3 reasons, we have to ask ourselves: Why? If it’s company-specific, that’s the most troublesome. There might be something wrong with the company you own. This usually leads to the question: Is it temporary or struc…
[dry-run excerpt] THE THESIS IN SHORT Hollywood Bowl runs 95 bowling centers, 79 in Britain and the rest in Canada under the Splitsville name. At the close on 13 October 2026 the equity is worth £426 million. The company holds £13.5 million of net cash and no borrowings, so the enterprise value is £413 million. Against adjusted EBITDA after rent of £68.4 million in the year to September 2025, that is 6.0 times. The…
[dry-run excerpt] We had another very interesting chat with Yegor from “From $100K to $1M” & More. Check out all of our previous episodes here . During the chat, we went over the following topics: Bulgarian Heating & Infrastructure: Initial banter about cold central heating in Sofia, Bulgaria, the monopoly on heating utilities, and poor internet connections. Fun Facts & Pop Culture: Brief tangents on Starlink, look…
[dry-run excerpt] Next week, on Thursday, the 22nd of October (5-6 PM London time), we’ll be hosting the Q3 2026 call. We’ll discuss the latest investments and research, thoughts on markets and capital allocation, and host a Q&A session. To receive the virtual call invite, you can sign up here . Q3 2026 Investor Call You can also read or tune into past quarterly presentations here .
[dry-run excerpt] Executive Summary Cracks in the AI trade are coming to the fore. The Nasdaq had its first major one-day sell-off since the summer, and the semiconductor index fell 4.5%. Friday brought another weak close, and tech is now leading the market down after months of holding up. This likely marks the start of the broad indices catching down to the rest of the market, as discussed. The Kospi was the canar…
[dry-run excerpt] We often describe Bitcoin as the most liquidity-sensitive major asset on the planet . If that proposition is even approximately right, its recent behaviour deserves attention. Bitcoin’s latest stabilization and rally may be telling us something important about the direction of Western monetary policy and, in particular, about what the Fed is doing with liquidity. To put this in context, consider t…
[dry-run excerpt] Share Key Highlights Q2 2026 revenue of $190M, +21% year-over-year; first-half 2026 revenue of $364M, +21%; full-year 2026 guidance raised to $737–757M (~23% growth at the midpoint) Gross margin holding at 60% — management has guided to this as a long-term floor, with room to expand as Organ Care System (OCS) Kidney and Gen 3.0 scale into the revenue mix $472M in cash on the balance sheet; convert…
[dry-run excerpt] While every monkey will be busy trying to call the bottom in the AI Trade, we try not to miss the forest from the trees… ..so we continue with our quest for trades that work with just a pen and paper… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now My investment process is built around looking at how other investors have made mistakes from time to time, and then building a process to avoid that mistake, and if possible to profit it from it (which is big driver of my shorting process). In my first half of my career, I was heavily macro, as I found currencies were the main driver of investor mistakes. I did my best to quantify th…
[dry-run excerpt] SIRI is very cheap at 6.5x FCF, or a 15% free cash flow yield. The low valuation reflects the market consensus that the business is a melting ice cube. The data tells a different story. The combination of a low valuation, high short interest, and several looming catalysts make SIRI a potential short squeeze candidate and an interesting situation regardless of the technical dynamics. What follows i…
[dry-run excerpt] AI tip of the week I use Claude to navigate websites that aren’t working. I couldn’t use my Coinbase account and frustratingly it wasn’t letting me fix the problem: Interesting Links/Reads Many links are sourced from Marginal Revolution ( bold and italics are my own to highlight what I found particularly interesting) 1. Was Leonardo da Vinci Jewish? ‘The most probable hypothesis, given what I foun…
[dry-run excerpt] On July 8, Gloo Holdings sold 7 million new shares at $3.25. Eight months earlier it had priced its IPO at $8.00. CEO Scott Beck bought 1,076,923 of the new shares with his own money. Two months later, Gloo's quarterly filing said the same thing its April 10-K had said: there is substantial doubt the company can continue as a going concern. This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts a…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to another edition of TSOH Weekly Roundup . Each update features a Chart of the Week, along with a brief discussion on three news items relevant to companies in the TSOH investable universe. Chart Of The Week (from “ Is Ralph Lauren Still Relevant? ”) Three Notable Items “Bumble in $1.3 Billion Deal With Ithaca Holdings” While I’ve spent less time writing about online dating in recent quar…
[dry-run excerpt] Last year, Ben Thompson described TSMC as the brake on the AI buildout: “ If Altman and OpenAI are the ones pushing to accelerate the AI infrastructure buildout, it’s Wei and TSMC that are the brakes .” TSMC has been easing off that brake all year. Its 2026 capex budget went from $52–56 Billion in January to $60–64 Billion in July, vs ~$41 Billion spent in 2025. Landing anywhere in that range mean…
[dry-run excerpt] For those busy subscribers that didn’t have much time to read, watch, or listen during the week, and that like to catch up on the weekend, here are some of the links from this week that stood out to me, in case you don’t have the time to go through all of the weekly posts. Columbia Business School released the conversation with Li Lu at the 36th Annual Graham & Dodd Event (video). Chris Davis and …
[dry-run excerpt] Programming note: I’ll be attending the TomorrowX Summit in Austin in November, followed by Fintech Nerdcon in San Diego. If you’re at either, please say hi. In my former career as a research analyst, I would approach earnings season with a mix of trepidation and excitement. The period – which kicked off this week in the banks sector – meant early starts and late nights. Companies report as early …
[dry-run excerpt] Hello and welcome back to another paid post! Dickerson and Nozawa report that most of the credit return in US corporate bonds is earned in the first five trading days of each calendar month, with the rest of the month averaging close to zero. The claim is strong, the sample ends in January 2023, and the authors state that the mechanism behind it remains an open puzzle. This post reproduces their r…
[dry-run excerpt] On October 8, Michael Burry sat down to write his Substack. The man who called the 2008 housing collapse wasn’t writing about AI stocks this time. He was writing about private credit. He said he could hear “some loud snapping and crackling” in it. TheStreet laid out the evidence behind the noise. In June, Blackstone’s flagship private credit fund capped withdrawals at 5%. Requests had hit about 10…
[dry-run excerpt] Thank you for watching this replay of my live stream on the narrowness of the current market. If you missed it live, this is the full recording, and I hope it gives you something useful to think about or take into your own investing process. ––––– If you like this kind of thinking, you’ll probably enjoy my newsletter (Compound with René) too. Get three free gifts when you subscribe: Valuation spre…
[dry-run excerpt] Jan Matejko, Astronomer Copernicus, or Conversations with God (1873) In 1887, astronomer W.H.M. Christie wrote an article in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society describing a new kind of astronomical device. Tucked inside the courtyard of the Royal Observatory in Greenwich, the Personal Equation Machine was a wooden box containing a small circular opening representing the Sun and Moon…
[dry-run excerpt] Three themes pulled this past week’s Daily Updates . Read more
[dry-run excerpt] WEEK AHEAD #3 Week of October 19, 2026 A new trading week is about to begin. The Weekly Rebalance selection is ready, the October Monthly Momentum Basket is entering its third week, new TNTW levels are available, and several Daily Swing charts are already on watch. The goal remains the same: prepare the levels first, then let the market decide what activates. 🔄 WEEKLY REBALANCE Week #3 Selection T…
[dry-run excerpt] October 16, 2026 Another trading week is behind us, with new developments across the TizyCharts strategies, including the latest Weekly Rebalance results, changes in the active Daily Swing setups and a new update on the October Monthly Momentum Basket. Some setups have completed their tracking while others are still evolving, so here’s where everything stands today, with the full sequence continui…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe to watch the full Daily Update video Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Radigan Carter is a private investor who runs the Fortress virtual community that I am part of. He writes one of the best monthly newsletters and his day job is a military contractor working for the US State Department on the ground in the Middle East. He is a true thinker but also a literal operator on the frontlines of the world, seeing what is going on around us. He describes the moment we are …
[dry-run excerpt] 1. The labour market effects of AI is not clear. Even at the entry level, graduate unemployment has been rising since 2015, pointing to factors beyond AI. 2. China will grow old before it gets rich ? China’s total population peaked at 1.4 billion in 2021 and is now falling by three to four million people per year—roughly equivalent to losing one Los Angeles each year. By the 2040s, if China contin…
[dry-run excerpt] Women really are more intelligent emotionally and may not get credit for these skills.
[dry-run excerpt] In an esclalation, NATO increased surveillance in the south Black Sea, with recent attacks on ships off Bulgaria as the apparent justification.
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Issue 240 of Asia Travel Re:Set . After 2-and-a-half months of living with the toxic fire-smoke “haze”, people across Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia are finding daily life a grind. Schools are closed, flights cancelled and medical bills rising. Political leaders are finally responding to popular disquiet, but the physical and psychological damage is done - or is it? The plantation bu…
[dry-run excerpt] A drone light show featuring 11,787 drones set a new Guinness World Record in Chongqing on June 17, 2025. He Penglei/China News Service/Getty Images Why do we keep getting China wrong? And how can we start getting China right? That is the question I’m trying to answer with this book. A technologically advanced, hypercompetitive, sophisticated, and undeniably confident China is coming into view. It…
[dry-run excerpt] Can you sort 8 historical events?
[dry-run excerpt] Share Reading demands effort. The brain must decode symbols, construct mental images, hold context in working memory, and build meaning from scratch. Watching and listening feel almost effortless by comparison, where the images, tone, pacing, and facial expressions arrive ready-made. Research on cognitive load consistently shows that video and audio impose lower intrinsic demands than text, as aud…
[dry-run excerpt] [ This is one of the finalists in the 2026 book review contest, written by an ACX reader who will remain anonymous until after voting is done. I’ll be posting about one of these a week for several months. When you’ve read them all, I’ll ask you to vote for a favorite, so remember which ones you liked ] All Quiet on the Western Front ranks as the definitive anti-war novel of World War I, perhaps fo…
[dry-run excerpt] Hello and welcome back to another paid post! Dickerson and Nozawa report that most of the credit return in US corporate bonds is earned in the first five trading days of each calendar month, with the rest of the month averaging close to zero. The claim is strong, the sample ends in January 2023, and the authors state that the mechanism behind it remains an open puzzle. This post reproduces their r…
[dry-run excerpt] On Brazil’s Election Day I was talking to Renan Santos, the Mission Party candidate for President. He had recently cast his vote in front of all the news cameras—as he sat down with us one joker asked “So who’d you vote for?”—and we were still several hours away from getting the first results. As Renan was telling us about the Mission Party’s history, he said that, to run an outsider political cam…
[dry-run excerpt] I have held Robertet for quite some while and I am comfortable in owning them for a long time. One gets to know the company really well as time goes by and how the managers are and react. One has to accept with Robertet a big willingness to make sure that shareholders don’t get their expectations too high, be it when the results are good and also when they are not good. In other words, they like t…
[dry-run excerpt] Last week we discussed several Nobel Prizes that were not awarded in Medicine or Physiology, and I promised to return to the topic. Left out last week was the Nobel Prize never awarded to Rosalind Franklin, who provided the data that conclusively demonstrated the helical structure of double-stranded DNA, of which genes are made. The […]
[dry-run excerpt] ( X: @twostraws ) Welcome back to This Week in Stratechery! As a reminder, each week, every Friday, we’re sending out this overview of content in the Stratechery bundle; highlighted links are free for everyone . Additionally, you have complete control over what we send to you. If you don’t want to receive This Week in Stratechery emails (there is no podcast), please uncheck the box in your deliver…
[dry-run excerpt] Don’t say you don’t have enough time. You have exactly the same number of hours per day that were given to Helen Keller, Pasteur, Michaelangelo, Leonardo da Vinci, Thomas Jefferson, and Albert Einstein. —H. Jackson Brown 🕰️ Here we are, Doc. The future. 👩🍳🔪🥩🧅🥦🍽️ My wife has been using a recipe app on her iPhone for a few years now. The goal was to have a centralized place to keep track of all the…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. 🆕 New on the site: follow the companies and funds you care about Follow a company and we email you whenever a fund manager writes about it — a full pitch or a single paragraph in a quarterly letter. Follow a fund and we email you the day its new letter is out. Every stock now has its own pag…
[dry-run excerpt] Ottovolante Bond Tanti dati economici usciti questa settimana; qui mi concentro su quelli relativi all’inflazione americana, in cui come mostrano i grafici sopra riportati si nota una risalita a Settembre al +3,7%. La lettura del dato core è uscita al +2,6% rispetto al +2,5% atteso. All’interno del numero totale si evince una forte salita dei prezzi dell’energia con un +9,1% di crescita del prezzo…
[dry-run excerpt] Exploring how interest rates and foreign exchange could affect spending choices in an MMT-aware currency issuer.
[dry-run excerpt] AI might not yet be eating the physical world. AI is still eating the world of news, and I am finding less and less opportunity to post about other things. My backlog of items grows across most of my secondary topics and I haven’t had time for any side projects. The monthly, no matter what, is sacred. We continue. Table of Contents Home Alone. The Men Have Never Been Okay. Antisocial Media. While …
[dry-run excerpt] 📰 Kelowna News - 10_16_26 Kelowna votes this weekend, provincial leaders make their pitch, and access to $10-a-day childcare becomes an election issue. Downtown also gets a new outdoor store. Still weighing your choice for mayor? Tom Dyas, Ron Cannan and Andrew Uitvlugt are seeking Kelowna’s top job. Before casting your ballot, set aside a few minutes to compare their plans. Here is the CBC mayora…
[dry-run excerpt] By Daniel Lacalle, Mises Institute Global investors spend a great deal of time worrying about an alleged artificial intelligence bubble. However, they should pay more attention to the government debt bubble. The most dangerous assumption is that governments can keep borrowing and making promises because central banks will always step in, disguising fiscal… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] [ Author’s Note: Today’s essay is a product of a “dry run” of the briefs test using Hasbro’s Q2 earnings call from July. To remind you, I am running the test for subscribers in PARQOR Platinum, the most engaged readers on the list, and subscribers who asked to participate in the test. One brief framed the call from the perspective of a studio IP owner’s licensing team, and the other framed it from…
[dry-run excerpt] I have been grappling with the problem of ideology (economic, political, geopolitical). How do we get people to reconsider narratives and beliefs which are held with such deep conviction, they automatically dismiss other ways of understanding? Those narratives and beliefs have been drip-fed us, as if they were mother’s milk, by a system which constantly […]