No sharp disagreements this run.
The most contrarian call is [24] Ferg’s Finds, which argues that Q1 2023 S&P 500 earnings were artificially inflated by 12% due to a non-operating accounting rule benefiting GOOGL, AMZN, and NVDA—implying a widespread misreading of corporate profitability at the top of the market. This challenges the prevailing bullish narrative around AI-driven earnings growth.
Today’s China reflation thesis ([1], [11]) directly escalates the bottoming-out call from (East Asia Econ, May 19) and is reinforced by PPI and industrial profit data previously flagged on June 24 and 29. The semiconductor rotation in [47] confirms the structural shift discussed in (Long-term Investing, June 30) and aligns with prior bullish views on memory (The Data-Driven Investor, June 24).
China's June PPI rose to 4.1% YoY, marking the fourth consecutive positive print and signaling the end of a 33-month deflationary period. This shift, driven by factors beyond energy prices, suggests a potential consumer turnaround, as factory-gate reflation begins to impact retail prices and household spending. Ticker: None specified, but Chinese equities may benefit from this positive trend.
Thesis: Solstice (SOLS) and Element Solutions (ESI) are merging to form a dominant player in advanced packaging solutions, capitalizing on the AI-driven demand for more complex semiconductors. Despite initial market skepticism, the combined entity is undervalued at current levels, trading at ~13.5x FY25 EBITDA, with significant upside potential (~53%) to a $95 target price based on a 18x EBITDA multiple.
Actionable View: Buy SOLS at the current dislocated price in the low 60s, leveraging the merger's strategic fit and growth prospects in advanced packaging.
The post highlights a microcap software company trading at 2x cash on the balance sheet, with strong financials including 13% 3-year revenue CAGR, 46% 3-year EPS CAGR, and 75%+ gross margins. Activist investors, including founders, are pushing for value realization, and the company scores 74% on an AI resilience framework, making it an attractive contrarian play. Ticker not provided.
The dividend growth investing portfolio, designed as a low-volatility, capital-preserving alternative to bonds and cash, has performed well in H1, with holdings outperforming expectations and minimal losses. No new additions were made, and the portfolio generated small but consistent dividend income.
Ticker: GMM.XETRA
Thesis: GRAMMER AG, a €1.9 billion revenue company, appears cheap at a €150 million market cap, but this is misleading due to €477 million in net debt, making the actual enterprise value closer to €627 million. Despite a genuine operational turnaround, the stock is heavily leveraged, controlled by a financially stressed Chinese parent, and operates in a cyclical industry. The valuation is still relatively cheap for a European auto supplier, but the risks are significant.
Actionable View: Consider a small, speculative position or add to watchlist. The operational recovery is real, but the leverage and ownership structure make it a high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
The digest curates a range of insightful articles, videos, and podcasts focused on value investing, AI, and global market trends, emphasizing long-term holding and the importance of selective optimism. Notable content includes discussions on the decline of deviance, the death of dividend investing, and the psychology of sustaining peak performance. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the digest encourages deep dives into topics like AI policy and family business myths.
Verisk Analytics (VRSK) dominates the insurance analytics market, particularly with its Xactimate software, leveraging strong network effects and data advantages. Despite AI fears, the company's moat and pricing power remain intact, supporting a 6-8% growth target and a 4% free cash flow yield, making it a compelling buy at current levels.
Core Thesis: The market is experiencing a bifurcation between bullish private equity and credit markets and weakening real-economy signals, with European assets being heavily bought despite underlying economic and geopolitical risks. The ECB and BoE are maintaining hawkish stances, which could limit rate relief and exacerbate inflation pressures.
Actionable Market View: Position defensively, favoring cash-generative, low-leverage, and energy-pass-through companies. Avoid aggressive bets on rate relief, particularly in Europe, and be cautious of the growing divergence between market sentiment and real economic conditions. Tickers to watch: easyJet (EZJ.L), Bayer (BAYN.DE), Vodafone (VOD.L).
Ticker: CMG
Thesis: Computer Modelling Group (CMG) has transformed from a publicly traded university research department into a disciplined software rollup engine, leveraging a strong moat in upstream oil and gas reservoir simulation. Under the CMG 4.0 strategy, the company has slashed its dividend to fund aggressive M&A, R&D, and buybacks, expanding its product suite and market position. Recent acquisitions and the launch of ShaleSim underscore CMG's strategic pivot and potential for significant value creation.
Actionable View: CMG's disciplined capital allocation and strategic M&A, coupled with a strong market position in reservoir simulation, make it an attractive long-term investment. The recent dividend cut and focus on growth initiatives position the company for outsized returns.
The post argues that while AI and technological progress can boost productivity and utility, they may also shift work to consumers, making it invisible in economic statistics and potentially shrinking the market economy. This could lead to challenges for government revenue, particularly in taxing a diminishing flow of market activity, suggesting a potential need for wealth taxes. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the discussion highlights the ongoing market enthusiasm for AI-focused megacaps, despite the uncertainties in their long-term economic impact.
The post reminisces about the excitement and bullish sentiment surrounding China's property market in the mid-2000s, particularly in Shanghai. The author questions whether Shui On Land (272 HK), a developer behind the successful Xintiandi project, is now more attractive after a 90% sell-off, suggesting a potential buying opportunity.
The stock, down 45% from its highs, is undervalued with a strong balance sheet, aggressive share buybacks, and solid margins. The company's high-moat marketplace and recession-resistant business model make it an attractive long-term compounder. (Ticker: Not specified)
The author argues that gates in investment funds, which restrict redemptions, are generally harmful and can exacerbate issues during market stress. The gating of private credit funds has negatively impacted the Invesco Listed Private Equity ETF (PSP US), making it a poor investment. The author warns that once a fund gates, it often becomes a "dead product" due to the loss of investor trust and the potential for forced liquidation of liquid assets, leaving only illiquid, hard-to-value assets.
The post argues that the Norges Bank's tiered reserve system, which pays the policy rate only on a portion of bank reserves and a lower rate on excess reserves, has successfully reduced reserve demand and revived interbank lending in Norway. This system, which has been stress-tested through multiple crises, could serve as a model for the Federal Reserve to reduce its balance sheet and improve interbank market efficiency. However, concerns about operational complexities and central planning remain, suggesting the Fed might consider a voluntary reserve target system or a maturity-based differentiation approach instead.
Rising oil import costs in Japan are being offset by higher chip export prices, but PPI is still increasing due to higher import costs. In Taiwan, wage growth is gradually accelerating. (No specific ticker or actionable market view provided.)
Molson Coors (TAP): Molson Coors trades at a rock-bottom 6.2x free cash flow with a 15% shareholder yield, but faces significant headwinds including declining beer volumes, intense competition in the "beyond beer" category, and difficulty offsetting inflationary pressures. The stock may represent an intelligent speculation, but the risk of a value trap is high due to the shrinking moat and uncertain growth prospects.
Domino’s Pizza (DPZ): Despite trading at a more reasonable ~15x earnings, Domino’s faces a changed landscape with recent operational challenges, making it less attractive despite the valuation. The stock's appeal has diminished, and the risk-reward profile is less favorable than in the past.
The core thesis is that the value of Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) shares is heavily influenced by the Senior Preferred Stock (SPS) Liquidation Preference (LP), which grows with retained earnings. If the SPS LP is affirmed, the stocks will likely fall to low single digits, but if it is deemed paid off, the stocks could rise 3-4 times their current price. The market view is that clarification on the SPS LP will precede any IPO, and the shares' price movements reflect investor sentiment more than business fundamentals.
Core Thesis: The post emphasizes the importance of tax-efficient investing, particularly through tax-advantaged accounts and direct indexing, and highlights the historical and regulatory reasons behind the cessation of land reclamation in major U.S. cities.
Actionable Market View: Max out tax-advantaged accounts (IRAs, 401(k)s, 529s) and consider direct indexing for those over 18, especially leveraging long/short strategies for tax loss harvesting. For example, the 250/150 S&P 500 (SPY) long short fund can generate significant tax advantages. Ticker: SPY.
TSOH Weekly Roundup (07/10/26)
Core Thesis: Pat Dorsey emphasizes the importance of humility in management teams to avoid significant failures, while Microsoft is undergoing a strategic transformation to adapt to shifting business models. PepsiCo CEO Ramon Laguarta highlights the evolving consumer demand for functional beverages, impacting companies like Fever-Tree (FEVR), Celsius (CELH), and Monster (MNST).
Actionable View: Investors should focus on companies with humble and reflective leadership and those adapting to consumer trends in functional beverages.
Meta’s release of Muse Spark 1.1, a multimodal reasoning model with strong performance in coding and structured, procedural work, signals a rapid catch-up in AI capabilities despite recent negative developments. This, combined with Meta’s aggressive data collection and infrastructure expansion plans, positions the company to challenge leading AI firms like Anthropic and OpenAI, potentially disrupting their pricing power and market share. Ticker: META.
The company, a debt-free industrial with $50M in cash and trading at 0.74x tangible book, is significantly undervalued as the market overlooks its strong balance sheet and cyclical nature of losses. Q2 bookings surged 41% YOY to $61.6M, signaling a strong rebound. Ticker: [Ticker Not Provided].
The post highlights key resources and insights from the week, including a comprehensive archive of Charlie Munger’s work, J.P. Morgan’s 3Q Guide to the Markets, and essays on overlooked businesses. Notable actionable content includes J.P. Morgan’s market guide for Q3, which can provide portfolio managers with valuable market insights and data points.
Sinch is well-positioned to capitalize on growing AI-driven communications demand, similar to CPaaS peers like Twilio and Bandwidth, with strong developer activity and onboarding trends. TickerTrends data shows Sinch's developer activity reaching a new high of 68.4 in early June, up 27.3% month over month, indicating robust implementation and demand. (Ticker: SINCH)
Core Thesis: An accounting rule led to a $69.2 billion non-operating windfall for Alphabet, Amazon, and Nvidia in Q1 2023, artificially inflating S&P 500 earnings by 12%. This distortion could mislead investors about the true performance of these companies.
Actionable View: Be cautious of S&P 500 earnings growth in Q1, as it is significantly inflated by non-operating gains. Consider adjusting earnings estimates and valuations to account for this distortion. Tickers: GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA.
Avadhut Sathe, a popular Indian trading educator, has been banned by SEBI for unregistered investment advice, highlighting the risks and high failure rates of retail options trading in India. Despite the regulator's efforts to curb losses, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) continues to see significant revenue from options trading, which could impact its IPO prospects. Ticker: NSE.
The post argues that extreme speculative positioning by Managed Money (fast money) in commodity futures, as indicated by the CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) report, often marks the peak of a trend, signaling a potential reversal. Fading these extreme positions by taking the opposite side of the trade can be profitable, as commercial hedgers (producers and merchants) tend to provide the counterbalance by selling into strength and buying into weakness. No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the strategy suggests monitoring COT reports for extreme Managed Money positions to identify potential fade opportunities.
Ticker: CSMT
Summary:
Comstock Inc. (CSMT) is tripling down on its investment in the Sierra Springs Opportunity Fund (SSOF), aiming to increase ownership from 40.66% to 51% by investing an additional $9.5 million. The company has secured a 250-300 megawatt power agreement, crucial for developing a large-scale data center, and is negotiating third-party bonding to avoid using its own cash. Recent corporate developments include shareholder activism leading to new board members and significant insider buying, aligning management incentives with shareholder value. The mining asset sale, if completed, will inject $20 million in cash and 2 million shares of Mackay, enhancing Comstock's financial position.
Professor Seth Lazar argues that current large language models (LLMs) have made significant strides in normative competence, particularly in moral reasoning, and are now more adept at this than the average human. This competence is crucial for AI alignment, as it enables AI systems to navigate complex ethical and normative scenarios effectively, which is essential for their safe and beneficial integration into society. Ticker: No specific ticker mentioned, but the focus is on the broader implications for AI development and ethical alignment.
The post emphasizes the importance of context in trading, arguing that chart patterns and signals gain significance only when understood within a broader market context. It also stresses that perfection is not the goal; instead, consistently making good decisions and managing risk are key to long-term success. The actionable takeaway is to remain patient and flexible, avoiding forced conclusions when the market is unclear, and to wait for confirmation before making trades.
The technical setups for Week #28 showed a strong positive outcome, with a win rate of 69.8% and an overall positive outcome rate of 81.4%. Notable winners include $SNPS (+1.5% downside), $TMUS (+1% and +2% upside), and $EQT (+1% and +7% upside). No actionable trades were activated for $PEP, $LMT, and $GEHC, while $PPL and $WFRD were invalidated. The upcoming week features 7 new technical setups, focusing on Doji Breakout and Doji Inside strategies.
The S&P 500 ($ES_F) gained 1.37% this week, marking 50 consecutive weeks in a LongWave, maintaining a long-term bullish structure. The swing strategy remains active with 2 extensions reached and 2 new activations, contributing to a YTD performance of +64.81%.
The Lund Loop argues that several key sectors are poised to hit all-time highs, driven by robust earnings growth and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The core thesis is that technology and consumer discretionary stocks, particularly those with strong digital transformation narratives, are well-positioned for continued outperformance. Ticker to watch: AAPL.
The post details the successful campaign to derail Graham Platner's Senate bid and prevent his future political career. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point is provided.
The post argues that stories play a crucial role in human decision-making, influencing empathy, memory, and behavior, with implications for how juries and individuals process information. This highlights the potential for narrative-driven strategies in marketing and advertising, suggesting that companies like Google (GOOGL) and Facebook (META) could benefit from leveraging storytelling to enhance user engagement and brand loyalty.
The post argues that the erosion of trust in American society has led to the rise of a "friction industry" that profits from the need for verification, compliance, and enforcement, which in turn registers as economic growth. This dynamic has created a race to the bottom, where institutions are hollowed out and trust is further eroded. Actionable Insight: Consider investing in companies that provide verification and compliance services (e.g., cybersecurity, legal, HR software) as these sectors are likely to grow in a low-trust environment. Tickers to watch: OKTA, ZS, NOW, ADP.
Summary:
1. Big Four Auditing Firms in Australia Under Fire: Senator Deborah O'Neill has exposed significant scandals at KPMG, PwC, EY, and Deloitte, leading to major leadership changes and regulatory scrutiny. This highlights systemic issues in the auditing and consulting industry, potentially impacting investor confidence and regulatory oversight. Actionable Insight: Consider short positions in these firms or increased scrutiny in due diligence for clients using their services.
2. GLP-1 Drugs and Women's Employment: A study by Rebecca Diamond shows that GLP-1 drugs significantly boost employment rates and household income among women, particularly the poorest third. However, the drugs are disproportionately used by the affluent, potentially increasing economic inequality. Actionable Insight: Long positions in GLP-1 drug manufacturers like Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY) could be considered, but monitor the equity implications.
3. King's Cross as Europe's AI Capital: The area has become a hub for AI research and development, driven by the presence of DeepMind and other tech giants. The density of talent and investment is fostering a vibrant ecosystem, similar to Silicon Valley's impact. Actionable Insight: Invest in AI startups and tech companies with a presence in King's Cross, such as OpenAI and Anthropic.
4. Semiconductor Demand and Supply: The surge in AI chip demand is driving massive investments in chip manufacturing, with companies like T
The author expresses disappointment with PAS's decision to support UMNO in the Johor State election, contradicting PAS's anti-corruption stance and ethical principles. This move undermines the party's credibility and may disappoint the professional class within PAS who advocate for a cleaner government. No specific actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided.
The core thesis is that extreme speculative positioning by Managed Money (fast money) in commodity futures, as indicated by the CFTC's Commitments of Traders (COT) report, often marks the peak of a trend, signaling a potential reversal. Actionable insight: Fade extreme Managed Money positions, as commercial hedgers (producers and merchants) tend to be on the other side, providing a contrarian signal. No specific ticker or data point provided.
The post compiles stock pitches from various investment newsletters across multiple regions, including the U.S., Canada, U.K., Germany, Sweden, Japan, and Australia. Notable U.S. stocks include Build-A-Bear Workshop (BBW), CME Group (CME), and Comcast (CMCSA), with each pitch offering unique investment theses and actionable insights for portfolio managers.
The post criticizes Dr. Scott Atlas, a radiologist at the Hoover Institution, for potentially overrelying on his credentials and position to influence policy without sufficient expertise in the areas he opines on. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point is provided.
The post challenges readers to sort 8 historical events, testing their knowledge of timelines. No actionable market view, ticker, or specific data point is provided.
Summary:
XBOX is facing significant challenges, with CEO Asha Sharma announcing plans to cut 3,200 jobs, or about 20% of its staff, over the next year. The failure of the Game Pass initiative, which was once seen as the division's savior, highlights management and strategic missteps in adapting to the internet and subscription-based models. Actionable Insight: The layoffs and strategic reset at XBOX (ticker: MSFT) suggest ongoing struggles in the gaming division, potentially impacting Microsoft's broader consumer tech narrative.
The podcast discusses a U.S. drone strike in Somalia that killed 12 civilians, including eight children, which the U.S. military denies. The episode explores the background of the U.S.'s long-standing covert war in the region and its recent escalation, highlighting the lack of public awareness in the U.S. No specific market view or ticker mentioned.
Adam Brown discusses the core insight of general relativity: the equivalence of inertial and gravitational mass, which Einstein realized through his "happiest thought" that gravity is a consequence of curved spacetime, not a force. No actionable market view, ticker, or data point is provided, but the discussion highlights the elegance and foundational importance of general relativity in physics.
DR Congo: The Ebola outbreak in DRC may be significantly larger than reported, with 80% of new cases having no known links to existing patients, suggesting undetected spread. The death toll has surpassed 600, and the number of confirmed cases is 1,759. (No actionable market view or ticker provided.)
Pakistan: Pakistani troops have killed over 75 insurgents in Balochistan, following an attack by the Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) that resulted in the abduction and killing of 18 police officers. The separatist movement is expanding its reach, increasing regional instability. (No actionable market view or ticker provided.)
Bangladesh: Former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina plans to return from exile in India in September despite facing a death sentence, highlighting ongoing political repression and instability in Bangladesh. (No actionable market view or ticker provided.)
The post argues that while American science remains robust, it is under threat from the MAGA wing of the Republican Party, which has lost faith in the scientific enterprise. This is concerning because science has been a key driver of U.S. economic and military dominance. No specific actionable market view or ticker is provided, but the erosion of trust in science could undermine long-term U.S. technological and industrial leadership.
The post highlights a significant shift in market dynamics in 2026, with semiconductor and memory producers (e.g., Micron, Sandisk, SK Hynix) outperforming the "Magnificent Seven" tech giants (e.g., Apple, Google, Meta). The thesis is that heavy investments in AI by the MAG7 are benefiting semiconductor companies, while causing their own cash flows to become unstable and leading to a decline in their stock multiples. actionable market view: Investors should consider overweighting semiconductor stocks and underweighting the MAG7, especially as the memory and semiconductor sectors are expected to see continued strong demand and profitability.
The post argues that while unlimited vacation policies seem attractive, they often lead to fewer days taken off compared to traditional vacation policies, driven by workplace pressures and the lack of a formal accrual system. This can negatively impact employee well-being and productivity. The author advocates for intentional, structured time off to recharge, citing examples like Stefan Sagmeister’s sabbatical model and Bill Gates’ “thinking weeks.” No specific ticker or actionable market view is provided, but the emphasis is on the importance of genuine, unplanned downtime for mental health and creativity.
Cloudflare and major publishers are threatening to block Google from indexing their sites due to AI scraping, which could significantly disrupt Google's search dominance and ad revenue. Monitor GOOGL for potential impacts on its business model and stock performance.
SK Hynix ADR (SKHYV) debuts today, with fundamentals remaining strong and earnings estimates rising, making the forward P/E of 5 compelling despite recent gains. The ADR is expected to trade at a premium to Korean shares due to easier access for U.S. investors, and demand for HBM memory, particularly from Nvidia, is forecast to outstrip supply, driving further upside.
Core Thesis/Argument: The post argues that to generate consistent alpha, investors must be early or contrarian, focusing on AI infrastructure as the next major trend. The key is to identify bottlenecks in AI's supply chain, such as advanced packaging, optics, and ASICs, where returns will concentrate.
Actionable Market View: Invest in companies like AVGO and Marvell, which are positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI-specific ASICs, with AVGO expecting AI semiconductor revenue to grow from $20 billion in FY25 to over $100 billion in FY27. Additionally, restructure energy investments to focus on companies selling physical grid components and installation services, as regulatory caps on power prices limit upside in price-sensitive areas.
The post discusses the implications of ad hoc AI regulations under the Trump administration, highlighting Sriram Krishnan's statement that a formal licensing regime for AI will not be established. This suggests a continuation of an opaque, arbitrary regulatory environment, which could benefit certain AI companies while stifling broader innovation. The author also critiques the notion that AI capabilities will commoditize, arguing that the gap between frontier and second-tier AI models is growing, driven by recursive self-improvement (RSI). Ticker: NVDA (Nvidia) is mentioned for its ongoing regulatory issues and potential market leadership in AI hardware.
The Federal Reserve has established task forces to review its monetary policy framework, with economist Greg Mankiw serving on one of them. While Mankiw is not yet commenting on the task forces' work, he suggests his previous writings, particularly a piece from two years ago, may provide relevant insights. No immediate actionable market views or specific tickers are provided.