[dry-run excerpt] This has been a week where the balance of American open-weight models took a step change back toward the frontier. Meta took the lead of this charge with Muse Spark Open , which is now the strongest American-made open model by quite some margin, but the addition of Reflection’s first model Beam is also relevant. Without these two models, there would be 20+ open-weight models built and released by …
[dry-run excerpt] 👋 Hello and welcome to this week’s edition of ✨ Community Wisdom ✨ a subscriber-only email, delivered every Saturday, highlighting the most helpful conversations in our members-only Slack community . Read more
[dry-run excerpt] As of today, 18 October 2026, Asian Century Stocks is now back on Substack . You can find the publication at AsianCenturyStocks.com and on the Substack app . The Asian Century Stocks website This is what it means for you You’ll continue to receive posts via email. So you don’t have to do anything . If you do want to adjust your notification settings, click here and scroll down to “newsletter deliv…
[dry-run excerpt] Good afternoon, We continue our tour of the AI landscape in Asia. Our stop today is Hong Kong, a port of a thousand dangers! But before we dig in, please remember that this is part of a series. You can find the earlier instalments below: Earlier in AI in Asia: Part 1: Korea’s AI opportunity Part 2: Taiwan’s AI profits Part 3: Japan’s claim on AI spending The argument behind the series: Thoughts on…
[dry-run excerpt] Three months ago, in The Great AI Reckoning, I argued that the AI trade would eventually have to reconcile what it spends with what it earns, and that the reconciliation would start where the spending sits furthest from the cash . In August, in Is the AI Trade Financeable?, I mapped who funds the build-out, split the complex into self-funded, hybrid and load-bearing names, and set five tripwires f…
[dry-run excerpt] Best Anchor Stocks has a partnership with Fiscal.ai (the research platform I personally use), through which you can enjoy a 15% discount on any plan . Use this link to claim yours! You’ll find KPIs, Copilot (a ChatGPT focused on finance) and the best UX: You can read this article (almost) entirely for free. If you like what you read, consider becoming a paid member to get access to… All in-depth r…
[dry-run excerpt] In this digest, we curate the most insightful free online content. This substack aspires to be a platform for your growth, whether you’re on the hunt for ideas, looking to learn from great investors, or building a great investment firm. Last chance to be a part of Latticework 2026 (November 10-11) — fireside chats, panel discussions, idea pitches, and a group dinner. We’re almost fully booked. Age…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm ! Notes from this week’s charts: The equal-weighted S&P500 continues to recover. Meanwhile the cap-weighted is being weighed down by semis. Small caps have corrected big time, but there are reasons for optimism. Private equity stocks and margin debt are sounding warning signs. The market is increasingly skewed to… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] I hope you are enjoying the 1035 Capital free weekly update. To access the other 240+ charts in our full weekly update, upgrade to a paid subscription. Our full update is packed with so much data that Substack can’t handle it all, so we have to send it directly from our server to your email! Our weekly emails come from [email protected] - so make sure to add us to your safe sender l…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to Marginal Matters, the free series where we take one piece of research, sit with it, and walk it through our own data until it makes sense. Don't navigate in the dark. Join the Watch. The Beacon, The Beam, The Horizon and The Chartbook, every Crosscurrents issue, and Pharos, the terminal the research is built on. $500 a year or $50 a month. This week we're going to the one step betw…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Online Marketing on Unsplash Key Statistics EV/EBIT = 12.4x ROE = N/A* Debt/Equity = N/A* FCF Yield = 6.1% Dividend Yield = .68% Market Cap = $99.34 billion *HCA’s liabilities exceed its assets. The Company HCA Healthcare (HCA) is one of the largest hospital operators in the United States. Although it provides medical care through its facilities, the publicly traded parent company is orga…
[dry-run excerpt] This week a member asked in the chat whether one of my theses was really a bet on a casino sale. Four lines, two numbers, done before the close. The letter is for the thesis. The room is for the trade, and by the time the next article lands the trade has usually moved. The Discord is every trade as I make it, the live book, a chat full of people running real money, five outside analysts, and now t…
[dry-run excerpt] Hope you all are having a good weekend. Below, we will be previewing the upcoming week’s events and providing a portfolio update as usual. Format for what is covered in this weekly preview: A Look at the Indices Key Upcoming Economic Events Upcoming Earnings Charts Current Portfolio Holdings Sizing | Cost Basis | Timeframe | Planned Moves Closing Thoughts (Scroll to here for my Market Commentary) …
[dry-run excerpt] I hope you enjoyed last week’s Short Thoughts piece, The AI Cloud Oligopoly, Stages of Grief & a Flashing Bear Market Indicator . The article got a better response than I expected, so I figured while I was on the tail of that particular beast, I would continue to hunt it down. The first thing was to collect and stitch together decades of data. I have to say, I am impressed by the folks at Siblis R…
[dry-run excerpt] This is collaborative effort, co-authored with Deep Quarry the newsletter from Olga Usvyatsky. If you value our work, please subscribe! A paid subscription supports my efforts to support other writers and can help me maintain my subscriptions to all of the publications I need to keep up. Gift links don’t grow on trees! Subscribe now On March 3, 2026, and then on March 4, 2026, The Information repo…
[dry-run excerpt] If you missed it, my CNBC hit this week The Risk With Stocks Is Real... Subscribe now to my Red Flag Alerts. There’s not much to say about this week other than what I wrote a few weeks ago … Something’s gotta give. And it did. Or at least it did as of the end of last week, as CoreWeave’s and the broader AI trade seemed to snap. (I say “seemed” because in this market with this market structure – an…
[dry-run excerpt] I’ve been following BQE Water, Tantalus Systems, and Dynacor Group for years. All three have interested me at different times. I spent some time in 2024 buying BQE at $50 but then I sold at $55 when I realized how impossible it was to buy or sell shares. I also owned Dynacor Group more recently, buying last year around C$4.50 but selling this year around C$6.50 Buying a stock and then selling rela…
[dry-run excerpt] Disclosure: I’m the President and Chief Investment Officer of KNA Capital Management, LLC, which holds Howden Joinery shares in client accounts. I also personally own shares. The paper linked in this post was written and published by KNA Capital, not by Flyover Stocks. I am the author of both this post and the linked report below. Please see important disclaimers here and on the linked KNA Capital…
[dry-run excerpt] After weeks of frenetic back and forth oil price movement, this week oil prices surged over $100 at the WTI benchmark. Below I share some key charts, observations and Bison Insights perspectives: Special note: to commemorate $100+ oil and the success of many ideas and signals published here on Bison Insights, I’m running a limited time 25% off sale, with the price locked in for as long as you rema…
[dry-run excerpt] A lot of global macro is astrology for suits. My mentor Brad’s always kept me grounded in this regard; as soon as I dabble in some astrology, he replies; That’s interesting, Ferg, how do I make money off that? The big macro question, and one I think you can make a lot of money on if you get it right, is: where is this Asian surplus going to be recycled? Recommend reading Brad Setsers whole X threa…
[dry-run excerpt] Why are expectations around events so critical to idea generation at the multi-managers (Citadel, Millennium, etc.)? When do they matter less? How does duration of capital determine which ideas you can monetize? The importance of buy-side consensus, bogey, whisper number or whatever you want to call it, has largely grown with the rise of multi-managers, their focus on events, tight risk limits and…
[dry-run excerpt] Have Britain and America spent decades getting economic policy wrong? And what does Donald Trump’s sudden U-turn on Russian diesel tell us about where the world is heading? These were among the many questions swirling around at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank this past week in Bangkok. The meetings are an occasion for finance ministers, central bankers and the…
[dry-run excerpt] I have spent rather a lot of time in recent weeks thinking about models. No, not those sorts of models... economic models. More specifically, I’ve been pondering a question we don’t ask ourselves all that much in Britain: what is this country’s economic model? Partly this is a consequence of researching an essay I wrote for the New Statesman this week in my guise as author of Trade World . But par…
[dry-run excerpt] This has been a week where the balance of American open-weight models took a step change back toward the frontier. Meta took the lead of this charge with Muse Spark Open , which is now the strongest American-made open model by quite some margin, but the addition of Reflection’s first model Beam is also relevant. Without these two models, there would be 20+ open-weight models built and released by …
[dry-run excerpt] The Rite is a film about the power of art.
[dry-run excerpt] A roundup of news from the Saudi Arabian and Yemeni fronts, some Iranian news plus commentary and analysis on Ansar Allah.
[dry-run excerpt] The situation in France—and elsewhere in Europe—escalates. Is climate change adding fuel to the fire?
[dry-run excerpt] Is value investing changing? At a recent conference in Munich, a number of thoughtful investors made the case for owning exceptional businesses, rather than simply buying cheap stocks. Others argued that traditional deep value has rarely been more attractive. More importantly, several presented specific investments that illustrate these competing philosophies. This week, I examine three of those i…
[dry-run excerpt] “I’m so glad I live in a world where there are Octobers.” — L.M. Montgomery TK returns (he never left) building for a new Industrial Age. One of the most relentless entrepreneurs on the planet. Masterclass on OG Founder Mode. “My recommendation for entrepreneurs is simple: stop spending so much time hand-typing pretty prompts. Hit the voice button and mind meld with the AI. Talk through anything a…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the latest Weekly S&P500 #ChartStorm ! Notes from this week’s charts: The equal-weighted S&P500 continues to recover. Meanwhile the cap-weighted is being weighed down by semis. Small caps have corrected big time, but there are reasons for optimism. Private equity stocks and margin debt are sounding warning signs. The market is increasingly skewed to… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Painting by Edouard Manet via Wikimedia Commons “Something old and wild and blind at war with man and the works of man” — Poul Anderson Years ago, I thought it was valuable for me to understand the depth of the human capacity for atrocity, so I made myself look at photos and videos of some of the worst things people had done to each other. So in 2015, I made myself watch the full, unedited video o…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Ainur Rohmah Indonesia’s stock market suffered a dramatic sell-off on Friday after global index provider Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) proposed removing the country from the global indexes tracked by investors, essentially sending it into the isolated backwater status of a standalone market. The move would strip the country of its emerg… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This is a concept I am working on . Wondering if this would be of value to anyone? I can whip together a similar product for any city. If you’d like your own, lets chat. Kelowna Daily Grapes ☀️Kelowna Sun ☁️15°5° Mon ☁️15°6° Tue ☁️16°5° Wed ☁️17°4° Thu ☁️18°6° Fri 🌤️14°3° Friday, October 16, 2026 Strong winds and possible snow forecast for mountain highways Strong winds and possible snow are forec…
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[dry-run excerpt] In 1949, two Harvard psychologists, Jerome Bruner and Leo Postman, flashed playing cards in front of 28 students. Each flash lasted a few thousandths of a second longer than the last. After each, they asked the students what they had seen. Most cards were standard. Hidden among them were trick cards, with color and suit swapped: a red six of spades, a black four of hearts. The students recognized …
[dry-run excerpt] Successful investing starts with understanding how your mind works. By learning from behavioral thinkers like Daniel Kahneman , you can spot common biases, make better decisions, and stay rational when markets become emotional. These insights can give you an edge that numbers alone cannot provide. 1️⃣ Thinking Fast and Slow Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman is the Best behavioral Finance b…
[dry-run excerpt] There is a newly leaked bill that Anthropic is purportedly shopping around is (if you assume its bugs get fixed). It is similar to the FRONTIER Act, with stronger preemption of state laws, stronger transparency provisions and weaker enforcement provisions. Having slept on this, I find it unacceptable that Anthropic is actively shopping exactly the type of bill I have warned we will need to fight a…
[dry-run excerpt] Friday’s selloff was not a surprise. Between deteriorating credit markets, rising Treasury yields, increasingly absurd artificial intelligence valuations, enormous amounts of leverage and an entire financial system that has spent the better part of two decades mainlining cheap money like a frat guy guzzling Jaegermeister at the bottom of an ice luge, th… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Painting by Janet Asante Sullivan This week, we’re turning 74, rebooting a favorite show, and diving into Colleen Hoover’s writing process. GIRLS, GIRLS, GIRLS “I think I may be the voice of my generation” Perhaps by now you’ve heard the news, if not felt some sort of magnetic force field open in Brooklyn: a Girls reboot is officially on the horizon, nearly a decade after the show’s final episode …
[dry-run excerpt] WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube ( here ). STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts ( here ), Spotify ( here ), or your favorite podcast player app. DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below. 2026 10 17 Cash Is King 423KB ∙ PDF file Download Download 2026 10 17,super Spiked 232 Transcript 782KB ∙ …
[dry-run excerpt] West Bank About 80 Israeli settlers have attacked Palestinians harvesting olives in the occupied West Bank, beating people with clubs, using slingshots to hurl rocks and viciously assaulting a 64-year-old American journalist, who a group of men kicked and pummeled with sticks as she lay on the ground. A Reuters photographer also saw at least one settler fire a gun. The settlers, dressed in black w…