[dry-run excerpt] Not a week goes without another piece of datacenter FUD. We’ve already debunked in depth why moratoriums aren’t as impactful as one may think . Despite that, many still misunderstand the pace of the global AI datacenter buildout. Just the other week, Brad Gerstner from Altimeter showed our data on the All-In Podcast and stated that “SemiAnalysis’ forecast of +43GW in 2027 is too aggressive” and th…
[dry-run excerpt] Emmanuel Ameisen is an interpretability researcher at Anthropic, where he looks inside LLMs like Claude to understand how they think. Before joining Anthropic, he spent years in applied ML at Stripe and Insight, and is the author of Building Machine Learning Powered Applications . His research has produced some of the most striking findings in the field: that models form general representations of…
[dry-run excerpt] ChaPanda’s IPO Under Investigation for Suspected Fraud On October 13, Hong Kong’s SFC suspended trading in ChaPanda (02555.HK) as part of an investigation into suspected IPO manipulation. ChaPanda is one of China’s largest freshly made tea chains, with more than 8,000 mostly franchised stores. This is no obscure micro-cap. ChaPanda was Hong Kong’s largest IPO of 2024 at the time, raising HK$2.6 bi…
[dry-run excerpt] Good Evening, We finish our AI series in mainland China. Korea gave us memory, Taiwan the foundries and server supply chain, Japan the machinery and materials, and Hong Kong the platforms and a growing collection of chip and model businesses. Mainland China stands on its own. It already has many of these businesses and is trying to build the rest. Its companies can benefit from rising AI expenditu…
[dry-run excerpt] Greetings from a haze-smothered Singapore. I don’t recall it being this bad since the late 1990s (2015 was reportedly worse, but I was living abroad then). Unfortunately, with El Niño delaying the onset of the Indonesian monsoon, it looks like we will have to suffer it out for a while longer. And while it is, for now, more of an inconvenience in Singapore, spare a thought for the people in areas s…
[dry-run excerpt] THE THESIS The Wendel family has controlled this company since 1704. Through Wendel-Participations SE and a concert of related parties it held 41.12 per cent of the share capital and 53.11 per cent of the voting rights at 31 December 2025, as declared to the Autorité des marchés financiers. If this Series exists to examine businesses run by people who behave like owners, Wendel is the pure case — …
[dry-run excerpt] Today’s company makes one component. Nothing in its industry gets built without it, and it has more than a 95% market share. The industry itself is critical infrastructure, it is in structural growth, and for the countries doing most of the buying it has just stopped being discretionary spending and become a matter of national security. 5.5-6.5x EV/EBITDA on normalised earnings 28% of the market c…
[dry-run excerpt] The Latticework Monday Morning Briefing is our weekly “Guide to the Markets” for long term-oriented investors. It is sent on a separate mailing list (complimentary to members). If you do not wish to receive it, opt out here . Last few seats available at Latticework 2026 (November 10-11) — don’t miss thought-provoking fireside chats, panel discussions, idea pitches, and a group dinner. Agenda | Sec…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to another edition of the Capital Employed Newsletter. To enjoy all the content we publish in full consider becoming a paid subscriber. Subscribe now Exclusive stock pitches by fund managers → #144 - Jack Pailing (Colebrooke Partners) 📗 #143 - Orlando Muyshondt (Elena Partners) 📗 #142 - Christian Putz (ARR Investment Partners) 📗 #141 - Dylan Marrello (Marrello Capital) 📗 #140 - Dean and De…
[dry-run excerpt] Prices of real estate and finance securities have suffered from the recent jump in interest rates. Borrowing costs have risen and the discounted value of future cash flows has fallen. The equilibrium yield on 10-year treasury bonds should be a term premium of 100-150bp over the neutral Fed Funds rate. The median Fed member projection of the long-term fed funds rate consistent with a 2.0% inflation…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the 109th edition of BWM (Bi-Weekly Munchies) … BWM is the largest bi weekly compilation of investment write ups, articles related to investing/finance, interviews, audio formats, videos, etc. from Substack, YouTube, Spotify, and other corners of the internet! "From $100K to $1M" & More. is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a fre…
[dry-run excerpt] AI is great, if it has enough context. If you’re still just using the chat window to research stocks, this article is for you. The problem with chat alone: things get lost, you have no idea what you researched three months ago, the LLM lacks context which can lead to wrong info and hallucinations, and nothing is saved outside the chat (no overview). Since April, I’ve been using a setup I read abou…
[dry-run excerpt] Hello! Welcome back to this collaborative series with Toby from The Intellectual Edge, where we’re covering all things factor investing which, as the title suggests, is the best investment strategy you’ve never heard of. Part 1 was well received, and you’ll be glad to know the content of this series only gets better and more practical as we go along. If the last article sparked an interest, this o…
[dry-run excerpt] The Alpha Engineer Stock Ranking is provided weekly to paid subscribers. Stocks entering the top 5% of the ranking are provided to all subscribers. For details on how these rankings are utilized in both my personal portfolio and The Alpha Engineer Model Portfolio, check out the methodology . My method section provides additional tools and context, while my research demonstrates how the method can …
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[dry-run excerpt] Headlines on the latest Chinese data overnight are largely pointing to better than expected official growth rates thanks to sharply rising export growth. And yet missing the biggest reality, which i… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] The AI complex finally cracked, dragging down U.S., EM and Japanese markets. U.S. CPI came in slightly above expectations, but yields still fell. Q3 earnings have been mixed so far. With 9% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 84% have beaten EPS estimates and 67% have beaten revenue estimates. A busy week of earnings lies ahead, including Tesla and Meta. U.S. tech was by far the worst performing…
[dry-run excerpt] ‘Normal’ Interest Rates Return Sidney Homer’s classic A History of Interest Rates (1963) examined interest rates across five thousand years. Its great lesson for modern investors is that the ultra-low and sometimes negative rates that followed the 2008/09 Global Financial Crisis were historically unique. Long-term UK and US interest-rate data tell much the same story. Over very long periods, gover…
[dry-run excerpt] The highlight today was the Q3 GDP release in China. Along with an update of all the usual cycle charts, I've also updated my guide to China's consumption data. In Japan, growth in services activity eased back in August, with a rare contraction in consumer-related services activity like eating out.
[dry-run excerpt] From the perspective of a government that wants to meet a 2026 growth target without having to shift policy, the September data are encouraging. But the 2027 outlook for the domestic economy is looking more challenging. That will become more visible if global demand and price trends change.
[dry-run excerpt] Highlights of last week's indicators: China's import shortfall, loose financial conditions in Japan, rising export prices in Korea, and more evidence of labour market tightness in Taiwan.
[dry-run excerpt] 1. Stock market sentiment Question: All of a sudden, there seems to be a lot of bearish sentiment out there. The CNN Fear & Greed index just hit “EXTREME FEAR” reading. Are we due for a bounce in the stock market? There is no doubt that over the past week, the market has increased its concern about the AI trade. The CNN Fear & Greed Index experienced a dr… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] With regional macro dependent on continuation of the US AI build-out, the equity sell-off last week matters. That said, there are still complications: TSMC still sounds very bullish, and while for bad economies, it isn't clear that an end of the AI cycle would be so negative for currencies.
[dry-run excerpt] Earlier, in September, I paused the billing on the newsletter to take a trip with my wife, hiking in the German Alps. Some folks have asked for more information, so I have put together this post. We went with an outfit called Macs Adventures . They have a bunch of different trips, but we chose one in Bavaria because my wife loves the mountains, but wanted hikes that were not “mountaineering.” She …
[dry-run excerpt] Overview 16 Days to the US Mid terms and Trump’s approval ratings are hitting new lows. France is reeling from weekend riots, originally based on concerns about supporting schoolchildren’s demands for more teachers and repairs to decrepit schools but spiralled out from there. Asia volumes likely to be light with Hong Kong closed. Tech in focus still with concerns over Anthropic and its potential I…
[dry-run excerpt] Overview Middle East tensions remain a key factor that is obviously impacting inflation and we are now just weeks away from the US mid-term elections so economic news will be in focus. This week key will be the housing data and affordability. Inflation data from Australia, Japan, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Malaysia. Trade data from Japan, Malaysia PMI’s also for Japan, India, Europe and the US. …
[dry-run excerpt] Encres Dubuit (ALDUB) is a French manufacturer of specialty inks for screen, pad and digital printing, serving industries such as packaging, cosmetics, automotive, electronics and medical devices. ALDUB now trades at P/TB 0.44x. ALDUB has traded above TB during just a few days during the past decade – for anyone dabbling with French deep value stocks, this is a well-known perennial. This is the 38…
[dry-run excerpt] From “ Beyond The Workshop ” (December 2025): “The shift to test the ‘stretchability’ of the brand is a notable change. I also suspect it reflects a management team that witnessed the huge growth of brands like Jellycat and Labubu over the past five years and wants in on the party… On the one hand, this may be an opportunity for incremental growth. On the other, it can also be seen as an attempt, …
[dry-run excerpt] Utilities just had their sharpest selloff since October 2023. The sector fund is down about 6% in a month and 17% from its high while the S&P 500 did nothing, and the cause is the ten year, which went through 5.2% after the Fed hiked again in September. That is the highest it has been in 24 years. A utility index yields about 3%, so anyone who owned the sector for income is now being paid less tha…
[dry-run excerpt] Hike, baby, hike? That appeared to be the latest vibe after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped its September inflation data on Wednesday. The data showed that things, price-wise, are moving in a very undesirable direction. Energy costs led the way, helping fuel, 🙄, a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index (“CPI”) versus August — the fastest sequential increase in five months, 😬. CPI in…
[dry-run excerpt] Source: Getty Images We commented recently about the rise of restaurant-related bankruptcies: We therefore felt compelled to go back to early August — August 4, 2026, to be exact — when Palm Beach, FL-based Quality Fresca I, LLC (the “debtor”) filed a chapter 11 bankruptcy case in the Southern District of Florida ( Judge Kimball ). The debtor is a franchisee of the ATL-based Moe’s Southwest Grill …
[dry-run excerpt] Source: Getty Images Way back on July 26, 2026, Omnis Pleasants LLC (the “debtor”) filed a messy, freefall chapter 11 bankruptcy case in the District of Delaware ( Judge Owens ). The debtor owns and operates a ~1.3k MW coal-fired power plant, which sits on 190 acres in Belmont, West Virginia. From an operational standpoint, one might question whether it should even be in chapter 11. Read more
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[dry-run excerpt] Chinese researchers conclude that Ai cannot pick (Chinese) stocks successfully The Slow Compounding Substack on Swedish Serial Acquirer Momentum Group KNA Capital thinks that Howden’s has a great opportunity in the US (Via Flyover stocks) Quick pitches for three cheap French Technology stocks Another set of short musings from Graoully A nice interview with Jensen’s Group CEO and Chairman The Black…
[dry-run excerpt] This week’s Acquirer’s Multiple® Large-Cap screen highlights attractive valuations across energy, financials, materials, technology and healthcare. Energy remains particularly prominent, accounting for five of the 10 cheapest stocks. However, Synchrony Financial (SYF) remains the cheapest company overall, trading at an Acquirer’s Multiple of just 2.5x. The Acquirer’s Multiple® compares enterprise …
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed: Micron Stock Valuation: Why Cheap Earnings Can Be Misleading AI Stocks vs. the Dot-Com Bubble: Are Investors Paying Too Much? MGM and VICI Properties: Finding Deep Value in Beaten-Down Stocks Nvidia’s AI Chip Dominance: Can Custom Chips Threaten Its Valuation? Deep Value Investing: Why Quality Stocks and BDCs Coul…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Ryan Albert discussed: Why South Korean Stocks Trade at a Discount — And Why That Could Change How Shareholder Activism Could Unlock Hidden Value Quasars, Dutch Disease and The Enormous Concentration of Investment in AI Infrastructure South Korea vs. Japan: Where Are the Best Value Investing Opportunities? Can South Korea’s Corporate Governance Re…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Sunday’s Idea Brunch , your interview series with great off-the-beaten-path investors. We are very excited to interview Will Hamilton and Albert Hanser! Will is a Partner at Kestrel Merchant Partners , a Boston-based merchant bank founded by Albert Hanser that invests in small-cap special situations. The firm’s two equity funds, the Kestrel Flight Fund and the Kestrel Phoenix Fund, inve…
[dry-run excerpt] Wednesday should have been a bad day for bonds. September core CPI printed 0.33% m/m (vs. a consensus 0.2%), the largest upside surprise in over 2 years. The 2-year proceeded to sell off as much as 16bps in the first hour. Then it reversed. By the close, the 2-year was more than 15bps below its morning high, the long end had rallied outright, and the curve had bull flattened on a day when inflatio…
[dry-run excerpt] The higher the market climbs, the louder the same old debate gets. Is a crash imminent? Which indicators give a reliable signal? The hope is to outsmart everyone else, make the big bucks, and then use that money to buy at the bottom, right when the market turns. Unfortunately, it doesn’t work that way. Still, that doesn’t stop market pundits from trying, over and over again. I prefer to keep it si…
[dry-run excerpt] “There is no suspense in inevitability.” - Damon Lindelof When asked to name a famous runner, most people would quickly name one: Usain Bolt. A 6’5, 207lb explosive monster. That is a fair answer. By nearly all measures, Usain Bolt is the most dominant sprinter ever to grace Earth. He is an eight-time Olympic gold medalist and the only sprinter to win the Olympic 100 meters and 200 meters titles a…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to The Bear Cave by Hunterbrook Media! The last premium articles for paid readers were “ More Problems at Ethos (LIFE) ” and “ Problems at Dream Finders Homes (DFH) .” Our next special investigation is scheduled for Thursday, November 5. Subscribe now New Activist Reports Muddy Waters published a report on Edison International (NYSE: EIX — $21.5 billion) and its legal liability. Muddy argu…
[dry-run excerpt] Dear compounders, Welcome back to my perception change series. If you’re new here, the short version is this. Ember Infrastructure Management made a 615p per share proposal for Ashtead Technology, a company I own and have written about at length, and I started preparing for the possibility of having to redeploy that capital. Instead of letting a deal force my hand, I’m working through the seven hi…
[dry-run excerpt] Here’s what’s in today’s update: >Semiconductors , you probably own them, where are they headed? >Trading plan and forecast update for SPY, QQQ, and IWM leveraging my full option and macro data set with key price levels to watch >Where are interest rates, oil, and gold headed? >Tail and macro risk model updates, should we be worried? >Proprietary buy/sell signals for SPY -0.60%↓ , QQQ 0.65%↑ , VIX…
[dry-run excerpt] Polls are inherently imprecise, but they don’t have a record of systematically overestimating Democrats in recent nonpresidential elections.
[dry-run excerpt] Egypt delays its vote on defending Saudi Arabia, the Saudis lose helicopter in Najran, and the IRGC says a third tanker hit a mine in Hormuz.
[dry-run excerpt] Listen to this post : Log in to listen On July 21, 1999, Steve Jobs did something remarkable at Macworld New York: first he went to Apple.com, then to “CNN Interactive”, then to Disney.com. That wasn’t the remarkable part: what blew the crowd away was when he picked up the just-introduced iBook and walked around while waiting for Disney.com to load. The crowd went wild at the lack of wires: I’m no…
[dry-run excerpt] The political class remains steadfast in support of neoliberalism and war. Living standards will continue to decline. More violence is likely.
[dry-run excerpt] The shrinking and eventual loss of all of these glaciers will affect ecosystems across the West, as well as waterways humans and wildlife rely on.
[dry-run excerpt] From FREZNO, by Tony Stamolis , 2008. If the bulk of new U.S. data centers are going to be powered by on-site natural gas, then we should regard new data center construction projects as straight-up additions to the natural gas power fleet . All new entrants to the U.S. power grid face a bottleneck of regulation, environmental review, and, most important of all, a hard-to-get admission ticket to th…
[dry-run excerpt] (Note: we’ve just published our quarterly letter, and recommend this post be read in companion with it.) Our Companies Let’s review a few of our positions and update the group on our thoughts. Occidental Petroleum Having round-tripped the war in Q2, Occidental Petroleum (“OXY”) finished slightly higher in Q3 as oil prices rose. At the end of Q2, OXY had a market cap of $55B and debt of $12.2B. Des…
[dry-run excerpt] October 18, 2026 Eight months and counting. By the time this letter reaches you, we’ll be closer to nine. Nine whole months. Nine months of continuous uncertainty and volatility. Nine months of mutual distrust and intractable positions. Nine months of chaos. We’re at a point in time where we’re back to where we started, sanctioning Iran. Since bombs and missiles didn’t work, the US has schemed up …
[dry-run excerpt] Art by GPT-6 Ramez Naam is, in my opinion, one of the best futurists alive. But although he has a Substack (which you should definitely follow), he doesn’t write nearly enough. So I’ve been encouraging him to write more by cross-posting his posts on my blog. Somewhat to my surprise, Ramez has turned out to be a lot more of an AI skeptic than I would have though. He’s certainly not dismissive of th…
[dry-run excerpt] Reiko Okuyama in 1963, courtesy of Reiko Okuyama: Legendary Animator Welcome! This is another Sunday edition of the Animation Obsessive newsletter, and here’s the plan: 1. Reiko Okuyama, artist. 2. Animation newsbits. 3. The last word. With that, let’s go! 1. Dissatisfaction In the ‘50s, something happened in Tokyo. A major film company, Toei, opened a new studio to make cartoons. It was called To…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to Asia Tech Review, your curated digest to keep up to date with tech news across Asia. There aren’t many exits in Southeast Asia, so today’s chance to analyse two IPOs is a rare one. We explore how data centre firm DayOne epitomises the upside/downside of the AI opportunity after it revealed two companies account for 85% of its revenue. We also look at how Mynt is about to have the l…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Tita C. Valderama The impeachment trial of Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte has entered a critical phase after prosecutors withdrew three of four articles of impeachment, narrowing their case to allegations of unexplained wealth. In the notoriously complex Philippine legal system, politics could yet intervene to Duterte’s benefit, making the job… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share MALAYSIA’S demographic foundations are crumbling, and the numbers leave little room for denial. The latest Department of Statistics Malaysia figures show the crude birth rate at 11.6 per 1,000 population and the total fertility rate down to 1.5 children per woman. Live births fell 4.5 per cent in a single year, from 414,918 to 396,175. A rate of 1.5 sits far below the 2.1 needed simply to ke…
[dry-run excerpt] Prices of real estate and finance securities have suffered from the recent jump in interest rates. Borrowing costs have risen and the discounted value of future cash flows has fallen. The equilibrium yield on 10-year treasury bonds should be a term premium of 100-150bp over the neutral Fed Funds rate. The median Fed member projection of the long-term fed funds rate consistent with a 2.0% inflation…
[dry-run excerpt] Zhuoran Li has a neat description of China’s frontline bureaucracy at the township level that resonates with many other accounts. It is worth extracting in detail and discussing its lessons for countries like India. The township, which includes both the rural and urban areas, is responsible for the implementation of most functions of the government such as education, healthcare, public welfare, an…
[dry-run excerpt] This reads better in your browser - so click on the title above to do so… Charts of the Week: Quote of the Week: “Two points in the Stoic system deserve special mention. One is a careful distinction between things which are in our power and things which are not. Desire and dislike, opinion and affection, are within the power of the will; whereas health, wealth, honour, and other such are generally…
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[dry-run excerpt] Highlights Kone’s continuing strong growth shows Elevators are a good business. But Modernization growth may be cyclical, and Service slowed in Q2. TK Elevator deal may be transformational but carries major risks. Shares are not cheap on a standalone basis, and at a premium to Otis. We downgrade our rating from Buy to Neutral after a strong 2-year run. Introduction We review Kone after the share p…
[dry-run excerpt] Dear all, as mentioned previously, and also part of the About section, one big project and service that I am working on is launching Maverick Model Portfolios (MMPs)! First and foremost, so that we are on the same exact page, what are Model Portfolio? They are ready to invest fully constructed portfolios based on various key parameters: returns = historical and future expectations risk capacity = …
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Sunday’s Idea Brunch , your interview series with great off-the-beaten-path investors. We are very excited to interview Will Hamilton and Albert Hanser! Will is a Partner at Kestrel Merchant Partners , a Boston-based merchant bank founded by Albert Hanser that invests in small-cap special situations. The firm’s two equity funds, the Kestrel Flight Fund and the Kestrel Phoenix Fund, inve…
[dry-run excerpt] As of mid-October, a number of September/Q3 fund updates (our continuously updated post containing all funds is here ) along with new emerging market research is available: 🗄️ Fund documents / updates; ⚠️ Disclosures or restricted access e.g. based on your location, investor status, etc.; 🇼 Wikipedia page; 🔬 Research analysis (including articles/blog posts from fund managers, etc.); 🎥 Video; 🎙️ Po…
[dry-run excerpt] Good morning, philosophers, Today we conclude our 4 Part Series on AI, Ethics, and You . Make sure to go back and browse the previous essays for full context if you haven’t read them yet. Now that we have a solid base in both the technology and the history surrounding AI, we’re going to conduct 3 ethical case studies, analyzing various components of the AI conversation through 3 separate ethical t…
[dry-run excerpt] Hike, baby, hike? That appeared to be the latest vibe after the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped its September inflation data on Wednesday. The data showed that things, price-wise, are moving in a very undesirable direction. Energy costs led the way, helping fuel, 🙄, a 0.6% increase in the consumer price index (“CPI”) versus August — the fastest sequential increase in five months, 😬. CPI in…
[dry-run excerpt] Source: Getty Images We commented recently about the rise of restaurant-related bankruptcies: We therefore felt compelled to go back to early August — August 4, 2026, to be exact — when Palm Beach, FL-based Quality Fresca I, LLC (the “debtor”) filed a chapter 11 bankruptcy case in the Southern District of Florida ( Judge Kimball ). The debtor is a franchisee of the ATL-based Moe’s Southwest Grill …
[dry-run excerpt] Source: Getty Images Way back on July 26, 2026, Omnis Pleasants LLC (the “debtor”) filed a messy, freefall chapter 11 bankruptcy case in the District of Delaware ( Judge Owens ). The debtor owns and operates a ~1.3k MW coal-fired power plant, which sits on 190 acres in Belmont, West Virginia. From an operational standpoint, one might question whether it should even be in chapter 11. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] AI is great, if it has enough context. If you’re still just using the chat window to research stocks, this article is for you. The problem with chat alone: things get lost, you have no idea what you researched three months ago, the LLM lacks context which can lead to wrong info and hallucinations, and nothing is saved outside the chat (no overview). Since April, I’ve been using a setup I read abou…
[dry-run excerpt] Below is an essay that I have debated publishing. I fed my recent Quiet Turning series into ChatGPT in private (incognito) mode at highest reasoning levels and set it free on my writings. I wanted to understand what I may have missed. After reading the essay, I spent much time pondering it. I hope you do the same. The essay itself demanded a preface, assessing the odds we face. The Machine is resp…
[dry-run excerpt] Jeff Yass (Screen capture: Susquehanna International Group/YouTube) The idea “The biggest risk is that you have a losing strategy when you think you have a winning one.” Jeff Yass Last month, while listening to Annie Duke’s TED Talk about risk , I learned the quote above from Jeff Yass, founder of Susquehanna International Group. Annie is a former professional poker player turned author and decisi…
[dry-run excerpt] When I first got involved with investigative forensic equity research about 15 years ago, I remember being genuinely stunned by what I was finding. I was drawn into the world of skeptical inquiry after reading GeoInvesting’s exposé of Longwei Petroleum back in 2012 where they concluded the U.S. listed company, trading on a major exchange with exposure t… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] While there are many factors that affect a country's economic performance, taxes play an important role. A well-structured tax code is easy for taxpayers to comply with and can promote economic development while raising sufficient revenue for a government’s priorities.