[dry-run excerpt] Decision models have exploded onto the scene recently, starting with TypeSafe’s Jev, followed by Perplexity’s Decider, Liquid’s d1, Cloudflare’s Clef, and OpenAI’s Decisions API 1 . These models promise fast, inexpensive classification. Decision models are an appealing low-cost alternative to LLM judges 2 for automated evals. But whether they’re the right choice depends on the cost, performance, a…
[dry-run excerpt] Meta’s new Muse Wonder model: good for AI agents, bad for design Listen now on YouTube • Spotify • Apple Podcasts Brought to you by: DX —Engineering intelligence for the AI era Jira Product Discovery —Prioritize with insights, build with confidence Claire puts Meta’s new Muse Wonder model through nearly 20 real-world tasks covering agentic work, coding, writing, design, and video editing. She expl…
[dry-run excerpt] Brooke Lacey has been making videos since before Facebook had video, and she built a TikTok audience of more than 290,000 by learning to cut short-form videos herself. With over 25 years in tech, she now builds her own apps, including Zosha, a free mobile app for learning AI. In this episode, Brooke walks me through the Claude Code, FFmpeg, and Whisper workflow that edits her TikToks in about 15 s…
[dry-run excerpt] I put together a presentation on some of the key themes I think all Asia-focused investors should know. You can find that presentation here: The Key Themes In Asia 3.86MB ∙ file Download Download Subscribe now Disclaimer: I am not licensed or regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, and I am not a financial adviser. This presentation is my personal opinion on economic conditions and marke…
[dry-run excerpt] Following my earlier CoreWeave deep dive, I wanted to re-visit the investment case after the recent sell-off. In the past week, CoreWeave bonds sold off, with yields touching 15% amidst higher than expected inflation and recent news around the 2 massive AI giants: OpenAI and Anthropic. On 8th October, the FT reported annualised revenue approaching $50 billion, versus the approximately $70 billion …
[dry-run excerpt] Good morning, ChiNext lost 8.9% last week. Shanghai fell 2.6%. The Hang Seng barely moved. Those three numbers describe the divide in Chinese equities rather better than a general claim that investors have abandoned China. Selling remained concentrated in the businesses most closely associated with AI spending. Banks and consumer staples held up, while some speculative application shares rose shar…
[dry-run excerpt] Disclaimer : The content on this website is for informational and educational purposes only and is not created to meet your personal financial situation. Nothing should be considered as investment advice or as a guarantee of profit. You are advised to consult with your financial advisors to discuss your investment options and whether it would be a suitable investment for your personal needs. The i…
[dry-run excerpt] It’s a pleasure to share with you an audio program on Mohnish Pabrai, managing partner of Pabrai Investment Funds and chairman of Dhandho Holdings. Each program in our Great Investors podcast series is an hour-long narrated profile of one investor, drawn from MOI Global’s archive of interviews and conference sessions and from the investor’s published work. We make these programs so that members ca…
[dry-run excerpt] Disclaimer: this is not financial advice! This summer Korean retail trades were margined to the max buying SK Hynix shares. 4 months later these same traders are selling their shares down 56%. It is sad. And I feel bad for them. But maybe it is an opportunity for everyone else.. The opportunity in memory is unique and still the same trade. (Most) investors don’t see the broader trend. That the cen…
[dry-run excerpt] Today I will review some boring deep value names from the emerging value framework. And it’s really deep value. Deep value has not really worked this year, as the market is more focused only on AI bubble capex companies. But I am not going to sell deep value. 📑 This article will also covering earnings and updates on portfolio companies. “The market is a pendulum that forever swings between unsusta…
[dry-run excerpt] Trivia question: what does the world consume each year in roughly equal tonnage as oil, yet in contrast to ‘black gold’, has never – at least as far as I’m aware – played a central role in war? The answer is cement . Share As a foundational building block (literally!) of modern civilization we consume over 4billion tons of it annually. That is equivalent in weight to the amount of oil the world co…
[dry-run excerpt] Remember…. use code HERMIT for 20% off Visit Baseline How can Baseline make your life easier? As you know, we’ve partnered with Baseline to get you an easy way to verify whether a company is worth your time. Baseline helps you screen for and analyze companies, identifying potential issues from the very first pass. It aggregates information on where the company is going and what the key risks are i…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to the 88th investment case and 49th AI & Technology idea on Crack The Market (and the most comprehensive CoreWeave investment case you will find online). Join me as I dissect the largest independent AI cloud in the world , which has grown its backlog from $15bn to more than $129bn in under two years , borrowed around $42bn to deliver it , and fallen 59% from its 52-week high as the credit…
[dry-run excerpt] Financials Stock: Amazon ($AMZN) Market Cap: $2.8T Price: $250 3 Year Price Target: $500 (+100%) Position: 15% of portfolio Investment Type: Compounder, margin expansion Overview The thesis is simple. Even though Amazon’s business has started to re-accelerate, it’s still trading near all-time-low valuations. Beyond re-acceleration, Amazon has also become a margin expansion story. A wholesale retai…
[dry-run excerpt] To read our full disclaimer, click here . Since 2022, the Schwar Capital Research portfolio has lived in desktop tracking software on my laptop. It did the job, but it was static and only I could see it. You got a screenshot a few times a year, and whatever happened in between stayed with me. I wanted the portfolio to be more transparent than that, so I’ve moved it to a live tracker. Prices update…
[dry-run excerpt] Summary I am selling Atlassian (TEAM) after a 130% gain, as it returns to reasonable valuation and exits AI fire sale territory. I am adding iShares MSCI Indonesia ETF (EIDO) to the aggressive portfolio; I’m bullish after the recent market plunge. On the recent drop in AI stocks and how the collapse of firms like CoreWeave will ultimately play out in the r… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] If the current trend continues, Anthropic’s share of junior technical hires would reach 0% around mid 2027. (Anthropic) Anthropic sees AI replacing work done by junior and entry level employees. That could drastically change how young people enter the workforce. AI will do to white collar jobs what globalization did to blue collar jobs. Volkswagen says it will need to freeze salaries until 2030. P…
[dry-run excerpt] The coming Anthropic IPO has captured the attention of pretty much everyone as it will set the benchmark for just how extreme the AI mania can sustain in the near future. Disclosures in the last cou… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Global liquidity levels declined for a second consecutive week. Collateral values remain under pressure and the US dollar remains strong. The collateral multiplier is helping to offset weakness elsewhere. Volatility has jumped in the last week or so but this has yet to feed through into collateral haircuts. Investors are adjusting to this less certain liquidity backdrop by reducing risk asset expo…
[dry-run excerpt] The usual second-day release of more detailed GDP data for China showed investment particularly weak in Q3. In contrast, fx settlement data in September was firm, showing continued capital inflows. In Taiwan, export orders last month don't indicate that the cycle is yet turning down.
[dry-run excerpt] Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Overview 15 Days to the US Mid terms as early voting stats today in Texas. Comes as Trump said on Monday he is open to participating in a trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin and that it could be focused on denuclearization. “We would have it to talk about nuclear weapons and denuclearization,” Trump told reporters outside the White House…
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, Haymakers: This edition of the Haymaker Bond Update (our Portfolio Update will return next week) is focused on two of our past bond ideas that we’ve decided to exit. We’re also covering a number of other income suggestions we sent your way in recent years. As you’ll soon read, quite a few have been stellar performers. The other good news is that even on the bond that has fallen in price, it…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now (Apologies for this post - it is slightly more stream of consciousness that I like, but it is my thought process. Will follow up with more clear logic) When something does not make sense to me, my subconscious keeps nagging away at me. Generally speaking I trust my subconscious - its gets things right. If I wake up in the middle of the night, worried about a position, then I know its…
[dry-run excerpt] Summary: Global capital markets are becoming a tug of war between AI spending and higher interest rates. Equity markets suggested that they're feeling a bit spooked last week by the implications of higher rates. How will the Fed react? Editor’s Note: We have made this week’s newsletter available to all subscribers. If you’re not already a premium subscriber, please consider subscribing. Share The …
[dry-run excerpt] Each time I buy a new position or exit one completely, I will send an email and also update you in the portfolio live update channels. See link below: https://substack.com/chat/group/15e96f4f-f5a4-476c-9c63-3267db89b521 I am exiting my position in this company given the slow down in the core business, estimates being revised down and to consolidate the book Read more
[dry-run excerpt] We have looked at TSMC before. The reports can be found here and here. The first one is comprehensive and is worth reading if you want to get a good understanding of the company. In our earlier report we noted the following: TSM is the world’s largest contract chipmaker with a particular strength in the most advanced chips. As the main producer of advanced chips used in artificial intelligence app…
[dry-run excerpt] Last year, I first wrote about Meta’s Generative Ads Recommendation Model or GEM . Over the last couple of years, Meta published several blog posts covering different facets of their ad infrastructure in the age of AI. Meta also highlighted GEM, Andromeda, Adaptive Ranking Model, Lattice etc. in several quarterly earnings calls to explain how AI is transforming their ad infrastructure. Admittedly,…
[dry-run excerpt] Today’s post: Some charts + commentary on my positioning Handful of (new) ideas I’m buying today What’s on deck right now Stocks are looking cheap these days and it’s been a while since my last “update” write-ups: My 4 favorite event-driven ideas (May 2026) Portfolio changes (Feb 2026) Quick ideas list (Nov 2025) Here’s the track record on those recommendations since November 2025: Today, I’m addi…
[dry-run excerpt] Current Positions in Size Order with Cost Basis (Investment Account) as of October 16, 2026: Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This morning, I present an abridged version of the article below. The Abridged version keeps the essence and much of the visual content, each of which requires study for full understanding. Brought from over 6000 words down to under 1500, a lot of context is unavoidably lost, so I still recommend reading the full article. With that said, let’s get started with the Abridged version of this Foundati…
[dry-run excerpt] I have put together a Weekly Trading Ideas summary table below. This will be a more useful resource if/when the market improves though put it together as usual so it is available. As always, this is not financial advice and I may or may not hold positions in these names; however, I do provide live updates in the respective channels as always (Trades on Discord only, Investment Accounts on both Sub…
[dry-run excerpt] Prestwick Park, a business park near Newcastle upon Tyne in northern England and the registered office of Northern Bear plc. The group owns UK roofing, insulation and construction businesses. Welcome to another edition of Giles Capital Weekly. Tech shares bounced as dip buyers returned after a rout, even as hedge funds cut technology exposure at the fast… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] “Insight comes, more often than not, from looking at what’s been on the table all along, in front of everybody, rather than from discovering something new. Seeing is as much the job of an historian as it is of a poet or a painter, it seems to me.” —David McCullough Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Want the truth about the CFA exam pass rates, plus tips and tricks to pass Level 1? Then read on. Why listen to me? Because not only have I been a Charterholder since 2002, but I’ve also taught the CFA Level 1 for several years. The Truth About the Pass Rate Media and finance professionals who aren't CFA Charterholders want you to think the CFA Institute has made the exam harder, that the material…
[dry-run excerpt] Old trends intact Watches, intact and narrowing to Omega. r/omegawatches stays on the trending list for a second week at +35,301/mo (17%). r/vintagewatches dropped off. r/reptime +39% YoY. Brand rows are mixed: Bulova cooled from +9.5 to +5.0, Oris +8.7, Richard Mille +7.3, Tissot +5.8. All Seiko rows carried over. Book-to-screen, intact and widening. East of Eden 1533 to 2100 pop, momentum steady…
[dry-run excerpt] Please see the previous game plan articles: August 25, Sept 1 , Sept 8, Sept 23, Sept 30 , Oct 12 Every morning, I look in the mirror and remind myself that the market will always be smarter than me. We rarely get an opportunity so disconnected from reality that we can profit from it. For anyone attuned to the price action in oil, the trading over the past week has been nothing but amazing to watc…
[dry-run excerpt] The stock price of a top Bison Insights idea is soaring this morning on good news. This idea has outperformed the market dramatically since I first shared it in April, contributing to significant outperformance by Bison Insights ideas since publication: The above chart excludes the gains this morning. This is a great time to sign up for Bison Insights, to access my initial thoughts on this high pe…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to another issue of Recent Academic Research ! Let’s get into it. Rank-and-File Workers Are Hidden Drivers of Reporting Quality Corporate reporting quality depends less on executives and more on the rank-and-file workers who produce, verify, and respond to it. This review reframes accounting research by tracing how non-executive employees shape, and are shaped by, corporate disclosure…
[dry-run excerpt] Canadians are quietly (and politely) running the world. This country gave me some of my favorite musicians, like Grimes and Avril Lavigne, and some of my favorite comedians, like Nathan Fielder and Norm Macdonald. When it comes to nerds, no one makes them like the University of Waterloo. In the latest episode of our Canada series (if you missed them, go watch our adventures with NordSpace and Domi…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe to watch the full Daily Update video Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Today's Iran war news: Iran and the US poke at each other as futile talks continue and Trump loudly contemplates big, self-defeating strikes.
[dry-run excerpt] Did The Canary just go down in history as one of the first media organisations in the collective West, if not the first, to be dispatched by debanking?
[dry-run excerpt] I recently celebrated my 87th birthday. At my age, every day is a celebration, and I reflect on the words above from Jerry Reed’s song from the movie Smoky and the Bandit . They capture my thoughts about the posts that you get from me. There is so much to still share - a long way to go . But the rest of that phrase is also true - a short time to get there . We cannot know what a short time means. …
[dry-run excerpt] I’m back from a trip to the East Coast, and the leaves are just starting to turn. There’s just something about red and gold and bright yellow that makes everything in this world feel a little better and cozier. This beauty, sadly, does nothing to stop the fall viruses that are stirring this week, nor a devastating public health problem: mass shootings. A… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Meta has a new open source model, and to everyone's surprise, they are are partnering with Apple to make sure you can run it locally.
[dry-run excerpt] A Senate health reform blueprint targets insurers, PBMs, and administrative abuses while leaving nosebleed hospital prices largely untouched.
[dry-run excerpt] By: Jens Kastner According to US President Donald Trump on Oct. 14, Taiwan’s Ministry of Economic Affairs has agreed that the state-run CPC Corporation will invest up to $4.4 billion in the long-stalled Alaska liquefied natural gas (LNG) project and purchase 6 million metric tons of LNG per year for 20 years, possibly starting in 2032. The news comes agai… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share A BLACK Swan event is an extremely rare, unpredictable occurrence with severe, widespread consequences. Nassim Nicholas Taleb popularised the term to describe disruptions that lie outside regular expectations, deliver extreme impact, and only appear obvious in hindsight. Most of the world’s media has underplayed the escalating tensions in the Gulf, yet the risks to global energy supplies are…
[dry-run excerpt] By Peter C. Earle, American Institute For Economic Research US equity investors have a lot to cheer of late, despite stubborn inflation, rising interest rates and financial tightening, and falling consumer confidence . The S&P 500 has hit 28 closing highs this year , and the index is up 103 percent since the start of 2023 — slightly more than doubling even… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] In just a few days, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Party will convene in Beijing, making strategic deployments for the sustained promotion of full and strict Party self-governance. This is of great practical significance and long-term guiding importance for our Party to adhere to Xi Jinping Thought on Party Building and deepen the new great project of Party building…
[dry-run excerpt] Rwanda A well-known critic of Rwandan President Paul Kagame has been found beheaded in neighboring Uganda. Robert Kabera, a 50-year-old former Rwandan army sergeant major, claimed asylum in Uganda in 2020 after he was accused of sexual assault, a charge he said was politically motivated. Kabera had also been well-known as a musician in Rwanda and had a YouTube channel with 144,000 subscribers on w…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to another issue of Recent Academic Research ! Let’s get into it. Rank-and-File Workers Are Hidden Drivers of Reporting Quality Corporate reporting quality depends less on executives and more on the rank-and-file workers who produce, verify, and respond to it. This review reframes accounting research by tracing how non-executive employees shape, and are shaped by, corporate disclosure…
[dry-run excerpt] Well, at least last week was less boring. A good kick to the nuts at the end of the week. Bonds did what I expected, stocks didn’t. I realised a gain on the 10-year calls I recently shared and opened a fresh bond trade shortly after. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] As disaster looms in the November mid-term elections, the Trump regime is riven with internal dissent and ugly scandal. Scott Bessent, Stephen Miller, and Susie Wiles have leading roles.
[dry-run excerpt] This is the weekly visible open thread. Post about anything you want, ask random questions, whatever. ACX has an unofficial subreddit , Discord , and bulletin board , and in-person meetups around the world . Most content is free, some is subscriber only; you can subscribe here . Also: 1: Meetup changes in Rockville, Northampton, Eindhoven, Great Barrington, Cairo, Portland, and Sofia. Check the po…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Speedwell Research’s Newsletter. We write about business and investing. Our paid research product can be found at SpeedwellResearch.com. You can learn more about us here . This is a new company report announcement. Members can access Speedwell’s Reports here . You can become a Speedwell Member here . Subscribe now Few industries have more failed businesses than ad tech. Even well establ…
[dry-run excerpt] Summary: The rotation we called for started in earnest last week. The question now is whether this top-heavy market can do more than chop and vol sideways without the AI trade firing. Our TCTM Risk-Off signal suggests caution is warranted. AI capex and funding concerns are back in focus, right into the heart of earnings season. Positioning is quite low, and breadth is improving. The next move depe…
[dry-run excerpt] A voter rebellion is underway, with write-in candidate Abigail Field having a real shot at winning the Suffolk County clerk race.
[dry-run excerpt] On September 22, I published a piece titled “ A Stock With A Potential $500 Million Earnings Surprise ,” highlighting research from one of my favorite analysts, Gordon Johnson of GLJ Research. Today, that thesis got some validation I wanted to update my readers on. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Nick Cammarata of Goodfire makes a bold claim: Neural Networks are Already Clean . This was his follow up after various resulting online discussions . This is clearly good work that tells us new and important things. The question is, how big an update is this, how much progress does it represent and what is the outlook going forward? The reactions here range from the super optimistic takes of ‘thi…
[dry-run excerpt] 10 quick facts: You can’t see your ears without a mirror You can’t count your hairs. You can’t breathe through your nose with your tongue out. You just tried #3. When you tried #3 you realized it was possible You’re smiling right now, because you were fooled You skipped #5. You just checked to see if there was a #5. Repost this to your friends to have fun too. ______ Left: A cartoon generated by C…
[dry-run excerpt] Startups are where much of the technology industry’s innovation happens. One of the AI industry’s biggest current problems is the so-called “memory wall,” which is the growing gap between how fast AI chips can perform computations and how fast they can be fed the data to compute on. d-Matrix, a small startup founded in 2019, may have one of the most intriguing solutions to the memory wall. Accordi…
[dry-run excerpt] For the better part of two years, Wall Street has been salivating over the prospect of OpenAI and Anthropic going public. But with AI stocks coming under pressure, concerns mounting about circular financing, and investors increasingly questioning the hundreds of billions being spent on artificial intelligence infrastructure, I have to wonder whether enthusiasm for these two potentially historic IP…