[dry-run excerpt] Anthropic's new personal agent, Claude Duet, lives on your phone, inherits all your Claude plugins and connectors, and is pitched at small business owners and busy professionals. It's the most polished agent launch I've seen: thoughtful onboarding, task lists, first-class artifacts, and Slack-style channels. But polish isn't enough when you're competing with every other personal agent for attentio…
[dry-run excerpt] Right before China’s national day holidays, DeepSeek released Ascend support for TileLang , DeepGEMM , DeepEP , TileKernels , FlashMLA , and DeepSelect . Neither can do this alone. Although they have Pangu, Huawei has no frontier lab to prove their chip can train or infer models, DeepSeek has models but cannot buy the compute it needs. Each supplies exactly what the other lacks: Huawei provides th…
[dry-run excerpt] Before we start: I’m very excited to announce an The Pragmatic Engineer Unplugged live event: with Diogo Almedia (the creator of Jev) and Bryan Cantrill (cofounder and CTO, Oxide). 4 November (Wednesday), San Francisco, the SFJAZZ Center. It’s free to attend, but spaces are limited and registration is required . If you’re in SF or in the area, perhaps see you there? RSVP here Stream the latest epi…
[dry-run excerpt] Beware, I used AI to simplify the guide on how to sign-up for the class-action lawsuit Last month, hackers broke into Times Car (subsidiary of Park 24( 4666 )), Japan’s largest car-sharing monopoly, and stole 6.6 million user accounts . Inside the data they stole, there were 1.6 million high-resolution photos of Japanese driver’s licenses , utility bills, and student IDs 🪪! Because Times Car requi…
[dry-run excerpt] What a difference a month makes. The last time I wrote you, I mentioned that PNJ was trading at around 50% of its previous high, and here it is having been cut in half again. No, I’m still not buying any of it. But that’s because a lot of good companies are down, down big off their highs, and down so much despite having grown revenues and earnings. In fact, I just bought back shares of an old favo…
[dry-run excerpt] This Week in Special Situations is a research-based slide presentation sent on a separate mailing list. If you do not wish to receive it, opt out here . Almost fully booked — Register to join investors and allocators at Latticework 2026 in Chicago on November 10-11 ( agenda ). This is the eighteenth issue of This Week in Special Situations , our curated survey of actionable ideas. We do not attemp…
[dry-run excerpt] Jean-Pascal Rolandez of The L.T. Funds presented his thesis on Veolia (France: VIE) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: Veolia is the world’s leading environmental services group and the only one with a substantial international footprint. Founded in 1853 under Napoleon III as Compagnie Générale des Eaux, it built its business on French water concessions, diversified into media and …
[dry-run excerpt] Nils Herzing of Shareholder Value Beteiligungen presented his thesis on Gerresheimer AG (Germany: GXI) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: Gerresheimer, founded as a glass manufacturer in 1864, makes drug containment and delivery solutions for the pharma industry, with about €2.3 billion in revenue and a historic EBITDA margin averaging around 20%. Nils calls it a once super-stable …
[dry-run excerpt] This is SEA limited stock price reaction this week was a bit strange, so I will write a quick note about SEA limited and long term investing. As an introduction, if that is needed, Sea limited is the leading E-commerce company in South East Asia, This includes the Philipines, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand. This is through the brand Shopee . They are also strong in Brazil, effectively competing with…
[dry-run excerpt] Hi fellow Sea Limited owners, Big announcements Forrest Li, founder and CEO of Sea Limited, published an internal letter to employees on 20 October 2026, filed here in an 8-K. The announcement was huge. Given its significance, it might have been better accompanied by a press release to shareholders. Nevertheless, the big news was: Sea Limited is launching a cloud product-and-services platform call…
[dry-run excerpt] Thank you to everyone who tuned into our live video! We had another very interesting chat with from The Hermit . During the chat, we went over the following topics: Bulgarian Heating & Infrastructure: Initial banter about cold central heating in Sofia, Bulgaria, the monopoly on heating utilities, and poor internet connections. Fun Facts & Pop Culture: Brief tangents on Starlink, looking like a you…
[dry-run excerpt] Kevin Durkin of Ballina Capital presented his thesis on CEWE Stiftung (Germany: CWC) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: CEWE Stiftung is Europe’s photofinishing leader, selling personalized photobooks, calendars, wall art and greeting cards in 21 countries, with 2025 turnover of €864.5M. Kevin looks for small European companies with founding family ownership, and the Neumüller fami…
[dry-run excerpt] First, an apology (and a bribe) It has been three months since I last published, and that is too long. The short version is that the day job ate the season while I suffered from an unfortunate run of health issues. None of that is your problem, yet I made it your problem by going quiet without saying so. I can apparently write six thousand words about disinfectant foam, but I could not manage a tw…
[dry-run excerpt] Eurofins (EPA:ERF) is a company I profiled in May this year (+35% since), you can read my in-depth report on the company below: Eurofins reported its Q3 and 9M revenue update today. European businesses are not legally required to report earnings every three months (the requirement is semi-annual) so they either (1) don’t report a single thing in Q1 and Q3, or (2) release a short revenue update. Eu…
[dry-run excerpt] Christian Olesen of Olesen Value Fund presented his thesis on Macfarlane Group (UK: MACF) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: Macfarlane Group is a value-added protective packaging distributor and manufacturer, its manufacturing mostly light design and assembly. Founded in Glasgow in 1949 and listed since 1973, it holds about 25% of the UK protective packaging niche, by far the larg…
[dry-run excerpt] This piece puts together two perspectives on the same industry: my view of the memory and storage complex, built from the contract structures and the Asian supply chain, and ’s view from the drive makers themselves, built on his work on Western Digital and on both October headlines. The first week of October pushed us both back to the same question, so we decided to answer it together. Join TheBig…
[dry-run excerpt] A few months ago I wrote that the strategy I have shared on Undervalued and Undercovered for years would finally have real money behind it. Today PEQUITY U&U Global Opportunities, FIL has crossed €2.3M, only a few months after we started it at the end of May. I want to thank everyone who trusted us this early, and I’m looking forward to breaking more milestones. Many of you asked what exactly my r…
[dry-run excerpt] Finding Value in Serial Acquirer Land The generic serial acquirer definition is flawed in that not every acquisition machine is worth buying, and the past results aren’t indicative of the future. There are a dozen acquisition-driven compounders out there, mainly focused on industrial related end markets. The mantra is oftentimes to acquire companies that can be sustainably standalone . That means …
[dry-run excerpt] There are more tangible examples of what AI could deliver. Citrini worked with an internal Anthropic research model to design proteins, then sent 211 candidates for lab testing. Seventeen bound to their intended targets across four of the five toxins tested, on a budget of about $200k. Binding does not establish that a protein neutralizes a toxin, let alone works as a treatment. Still, this is an …
[dry-run excerpt] The BOK didn't change rates today, but laid out a much more positive view on the outlook than is being expressed by regional equities. One casualty of the equity sell-off is the TWD, which will further push up inflationary pressure in Taiwan. Also today, the BOJ's senior loan officer survey.
[dry-run excerpt] For much of the year the economic story has been that nominal growth remains quite strong which supported stocks relative to nominal bonds. While the economy faced an oil shock, consumers dissaved e… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] "My optimism is tempered by the insight that the time when past excesses are corrected is the period of greatest risk. Moreover, the process of correction can develop its own momentum, setting off a self-reinforcing trend in the opposite direction." –George Soros This is the third part of The Central Bank of Nvidia series. In this part we look at what happens when the economics of the AI boom star…
[dry-run excerpt] There was no change from the BOK today, and the decision to stay on hold was unanimous. That wasn't a surprise. However, the meeting was informative, with the clear takeaway being BOK confidence that this cycle will run through 2027.
[dry-run excerpt] Asia Market Sense is a reader-supported publication. Please if you enjoyed this post, found it useful then sign up as a paid subscriber; it’s just US$90 per annum. Or make a donation to support my work and please recommend it to friends. Thank you Overview 13 Days to the US Mid terms. Interesting to note Donald Trump used an antisemitic slur during a rally in Kansas as he came to the defense of Re…
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, Haymakers: There are innumerable odd goings-on in the markets right now, but the contradictions at play in this sequence of visuals might rank near the top of the surreal list. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now I have written about AI and Coreweave a lot in the last few days. And I have received a lot of replies, almost universally bearish, and from a lot of managers and investors that I respect. And to be honest, if gives me pause. So I thought I should give some more detail on how I think. I am not a short term trader. When I go bearish on something, I expect it to fall for quite some tim…
[dry-run excerpt] The Beam · October 20, 2026 Members research. Read it in full inside Pharos , or become a member .
[dry-run excerpt] Every position has an IRR before it has a ticker Read more
[dry-run excerpt] We are short GLOO. Our October 16 report was about what Gloo’s filings say. This one is about who Gloo is, what its paper owes, and what the mission pays for. All of it is new, and all of it is sourced. A third-party screen of Gloo’s SEC filings scores it 82 out of 100, “Very High Risk,” the same on the April 10-K and both 10-Qs since. Related parties, liquidity, internal controls and strategic co…
[dry-run excerpt] Even before SpaceX and Tesla’s potential merger, SpaceX already feels like an amalgamation of very different businesses with its three segments: Space, Connectivity, and Superintelligence or SI. I’ll stick with AI which is also my focus for today’s piece on SpaceX. AI segment’s results were excellent! AI revenue was $7.6 billion, up from mere $0.8 billion a year ago, nameplate compute reached 1.7 …
[dry-run excerpt] Stradim Espace Finances SA (ALSAS) is a small French developer of new-build apartments. ALSAS now trades at P/TB 0.36x, which is ATL since at least 2007. ALSAS is also a net-net, although the inventory part perhaps is a bit less liquid (land, projects and apartments) than is the case in more traditional net-nets. Housebuilders, and in this case, an apartment developer, are nothing new in the world…
[dry-run excerpt] The Dig is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Back in January my friend and frequent collaborator Olga Usvyatsky and I wrote about CoreWeave’s enormous debt burden. So, I definitely have a view: The rapid development and widespread interest in AI tools has led to an unprecedented build-out of data centers that can …
[dry-run excerpt] On October 16, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight session, erasing $2 trillion in market value. A hot inflation report raised the odds of another Fed rate hike, while surging bond yields at CoreWeave revived worries about how much of the AI buildout runs on debt. However, the selling has not hit everything “AI” related. Over the last week, Eli Lilly rose almost 10% an…
[dry-run excerpt] (Speedwell Members click here for a PDF version of this post) 3Q26. Meta reported another stellar quarter with Family of App revenue growth up 26% y/y, driven by impression growth of 10% and ad price growth of 14%. Family of App Other Revenue (non-advertising) grew 59% y/y, which is largely from WhatsApp Business Paid Messaging and subscription revenues. Total operating income was up 11% y/y, afte…
[dry-run excerpt] The Acquirer’s Multiple® Canada All TSX screen gives investors a way to search Canadian-listed companies for value, cash generation and shareholder returns. This week’s screen contains 87 companies , with a median Acquirer’s Multiple of approximately 7.6x and a median free-cash-flow yield of approximately 11.9% . At the cheaper end, 63 companies trade below 10x , 46 trade below 8x and 13 trade bel…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Ryan Albert discussed South Korea vs. Japan: Where Are the Best Value Investing Opportunities? Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Ryan] The big—I mean, many ways to take that, but I would say the big difference is just Japanese companies do not have the same controlling shareholder family dynamics as Korean companies. There’s more or less a prof…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed Nvidia’s AI Chip Dominance: Can Custom Chips Threaten Its Valuation?. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Tim] It has. I mean, it’s a pretty different business now, but there you go, Toby. Look, all of the hyperscalers are building their own chips now. So they’re using Broadcom and they’re designing their own chip…
[dry-run excerpt] One manager expects the AI bubble to pop first, another shows what the last bubble cost the people who joined it, and a third tests his own view against evidence that disagrees. The One to Save is a soldier who kept fighting a war that was long over, and the investors who do the same. Ideas Kopernik's fund letter essay on using AI to sharpen human judgment in investment research, not replace it, w…
[dry-run excerpt] “Any time you combine ignorance and borrowed money, you can get some pretty interesting consequences…. The ability to borrow enormous amounts of money combined with a chance to get either very rich or very poor very quickly, has historically been a recipe for trouble at some point.” —Warren Buffett ( 1994 ) Read more
[dry-run excerpt] I honestly don’t know what I’d do without open-source intelligence these days. The Iran War so far has been filled with fake news, fake peace deal headlines that without OSINT accounts keeping track of tankers, flight data, and military movements, it would be difficult to have any conviction. For that, I’m grateful for X and the information shared there by the numerous contributors that I follow. …
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, Doomberg Pro members! As we have expressed on multiple occasions, the normalization of attacks on civilian energy infrastructure is a dangerous development, with refineries sitting in the most recent crosshairs. These vital facilities transform crude oil, itself worthless and toxic goo, into a range of outputs on which the global economy depends. … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Affiliation Disclosure & Disclaimer: The managing principal of Ridire Research is affiliated with a private investment fund that holds long positions in the securities discussed herein ( TEM, ABCL, CERT, SDGR, RXRX, ABSI ) which could influence the views expressed. This publication is for educational and informational purposes only. Any performance referenced is illustrative and tracked on a per-a…
[dry-run excerpt] If you’re lucky enough to stay at the Taj Falaknuma Palace in Hyderabad, you can walk out of the Nizam’s former study and onto a balcony and then take in the entire city. The palace sits atop a hill near the old parts of town, and the multitudes of neighboring mosques create a surround-sound effect during the calls to prayer. Farther off (through the smoggy air) lies the tech center of Hyderabad, …
[dry-run excerpt] We’re heading into fighter jet territory this week with Zach Shore (CEO) and A.J. Piplica (Co-Founder and Executive Chairman) of Hermeus. Founded in 2018, Hermeus has set out to make supersonic and even hypersonic jets that can fly themselves. They’re part of this new wave of defense startups trying to prove that the U.S. can still produce technological marvels in a timely and not criminally expen…
[dry-run excerpt] Interactive Brokers has been in my portfolio for close to three years now if I recall correctly, and in all that time I have never dedicated a post to it (to be fair, I only started writing on this blog around two years ago). Strictly speaking, I discussed it in “ Not All Reinvestment Is the Same: How Two Companies Reinvented Growth Strategies “ Given how much ink I spill on far smaller positions …
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe to watch the full Daily Update video Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This weekly roundup brings together a selection of noteworthy investment research from the past week, covering academic studies, practitioner insights, and investment blogs. Links to the original sources are included for readers who wish to explore the findings further. Commodities Weak Factors for Commodity Futures Portfolios (Nakagawa and Sakemoto) What explains risk premia in commodity futures?…
[dry-run excerpt] Today's Iran war news: Markets go wobbly as the date for loudly-signaled US/Israel attacks on Iran nears.
[dry-run excerpt] An interview with Craig Moffett about SpaceX, from launch to broadband to mobile, plus how he is applying the lessons of the dot-com bubble to today.
[dry-run excerpt] New surveys show that increases in premiums and deductibles are forcing people to forgo treatments or doctor’s visits while budgets are strained by higher food and gas prices.
[dry-run excerpt] In the new Times/Siena poll, 70 percent of young voters identified as Democrats or leaned that way — a jump from just two years ago.
[dry-run excerpt] I’ve long followed BowtiedBull formerly known as the Wall Street Playboys. They are a game changer for any person. If you are fortunate to read and heed their stuff, you will be far ahead in the game of life and investing. Super prescient and direct. A june newsletter was no different. Worth reading the whole thing: Thanks for reading! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. B…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to the series on building rotational momentum strategies. “There is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills.” Edwin Lefèvre put those words in Jesse Livermore’s mouth in 1923, and I can’t think of a better sentence to tape above the desk of anyone about to research a hundred-year-old anomaly. The questions post ended on one I couldn’t answ…
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Jorge Jaramillo via Wikimedia Commons I’m writing about this a little bit late, but France has been having some pretty bad riots : After widespread rioting at the weekend – estimated to have cost several hundred million dollars in property damage and theft – France faces a toxic mix of urban rebellion, political drift and economic crisis…There was rampant looting in Paris, Marseille, Bord…
[dry-run excerpt] Species loss ought to be a topic of paramount importance. Satyajit Das uses a new book on biodiversity, Lost Animal, as a point of departure.
[dry-run excerpt] Before following the various US/Western hegemony-defending conflicts became a large task when done properly, we’d occasionally quiz readers on the condition of their economy, meaning personal, local and industry indicators. These queries provided informative sightings that would check the accuracy of official statistics and storylines. It should have occurred to me a long time ago […]
[dry-run excerpt] Jalapeño. Credit: OpenAI A new AI chip is making waves in the industry and it’s likely to keep doing so for years to come. In late August, OpenAI presented its Jalapeño AI inference chip at the Hot Chips conference to widespread acclaim. SemiAnalysis InferenceX benchmarks showed the design outperforming its rivals in performance per watt, including Nvidia’s Blackwell, on a number of open-source mo…
[dry-run excerpt] Share In a stark reminder of evolving security risks across Southeast Asia, China’s embassy in Thailand issued a fresh travel alert in mid-October 2026, warning Chinese nationals about a string of high-profile kidnappings and job scams. This advisory urges travelers to carefully plan itineraries, use only licensed transport, refuse free rides from strangers or acquaintances, and avoid sudden chang…
[dry-run excerpt] A lot of AIs were misaligned this week. A fun little survey. This is not coverage of The Hackening, which appears to have arrived early, including a core vulnerability in PHP. That is a developing story. I will cover it properly soon. In the meantime, I have Claude Code updating everything in sight, I will take some additional common sense precautions, and I suggest you do the same. Misaligned? (A…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks everyone for your comments in the chat about how to make Sinocism better and more relevant in the age of AI. The discussion is still ongoing and I welcome your feedback. Thanks to AI, some services I use for my newsletter workflow have been offline today awaiting the PHP patches, so the feed is a bit thinner than usual, but should be back to normal tomorrow. In this issue: 1. Long March ann…
[dry-run excerpt] A friend asked me to investigate the following mystery: why do 5-10% of skulls from 10,000 BC to 3,000 BC, all over the world, have holes in them? Why do bone growth patterns indicate that most skull-hole-havers survived years after their holes were drilled, even though brain surgery today requires careful sterilization (and frequently, prophylactic antibiotics) to prevent fatal infections? And wh…
[dry-run excerpt] The media landscape continues to shift as Netflix purges its executive class while Larry Ellison borrows big dollars to backstop his son's Skydance media empire.
[dry-run excerpt] Listen to this post : Log in to listen Stratechery is, starting from today, presented by Stripe. The Unified Content Business Model Readers have, over the years, pointed out the paradox of my belief in and advocacy for advertising-based business models being delivered in a format bereft of advertising. In truth, however, there was no paradox, just pragmatism: when I launched the Stratechery busine…
[dry-run excerpt] I often say that I believe in God as much as a Nonsupernaturalist can. I define nonsupernaturalism as making physicists the arbiters of what is. There are many nonsupernatural gods. First, there is the miracle of the existence of the universe itself, including the existence of consciousness. In my belief, this is the one miracle for all time. (I imagine the one miracle as impersonal. I am not a de…
[dry-run excerpt] Deconstruction creates knowledge. Recombination creates value. –James Clear ❤️🩹 Ben Wilson is a great guy. I don’t know him very well, but we had a couple great chats a few years ago, and we have friends in common that all say great things about him. I consider him a friend-of-the-show. If you can help him and his loved ones in any way, please, I encourage you to do so. There’s a campaign to rais…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks for reading Stock Analysis Compilation! Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support my work. 🆕 New on the site: every chart fund managers publish, on one page The best charts in fund letters and research are usually buried deep inside a PDF. We pull them out and put them side by side — macro, rates, earnings, valuations — each one credited to the firm that made it, with the original…
[dry-run excerpt] Great companies are like money-printing machines run by exceptional people : they solve real problems, earn customer trust, and become stronger with time. While most investors spend their days predicting stock prices, the truly successful ones focus on owning businesses that can still grow, innovate, and dominate ten years from now. Analyzing Good Businesses is a reader-supported publication. To r…
[dry-run excerpt] No paywall for this report! Last week, I came across a viral tweet in which the author claimed that by starting with just $100 in 2012 and then rotating it into the previous year's best-performing S&P 500 stock, your portfolio would now be worth $176K. For context, the same $100 left in the S&P 500 or Berkshire Hathaway would be worth about $800. Source: Gurgavin on X So is that all there is to in…
[dry-run excerpt] In August of 2025, the United States helped broker a historic peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, two countries who’d spent decades fighting over territory in the South Caucasus. Among the economic incentives surrounding the negotiations was something that would have seemed rather unusual a decade ago: NVIDIA chips. Not oil for transportation, nor weapons for defense. Not traditional i…
[dry-run excerpt] Democrats have an opportunity to take real action on AI data centers to protect people and the environment. But will they take the risk?
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, Doomberg Pro members! As we have expressed on multiple occasions, the normalization of attacks on civilian energy infrastructure is a dangerous development, with refineries sitting in the most recent crosshairs. These vital facilities transform crude oil, itself worthless and toxic goo, into a range of outputs on which the global economy depends. … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Podcasts are one of the most intimate forms of media. Hosts immerse listeners in the story of a college football underdog ’s improbable rise, take them into the kitchens of New York’s best restaurants , and reveal the strategy behind history’s most lopsided battle . As listeners return week after week, they form a deep connection to the voices who narrate their daily lives. But the podcast tech st…
[dry-run excerpt] The cracks in the U.S. housing market are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Over the past 48 hours, we’ve received a series of housing reports that paint a troubling picture of an economy struggling under the weight of elevated rates, as I have been predicting would happen . And perhaps most concerning, this deterioration is taking place just as … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Open any social feed, and someone is selling you more years. One person offers an IV drip, another has a $400 blood test that reveals your “real” age, and a third suggests a morning protocol involving cold plunges, a dozen supplements, and a protein shake. We’re getting wrapped up in the marketing of a trillion-dollar wellness industry. But underneath it all is a quieter, very real fear that I thi…
[dry-run excerpt] Sudan More than 150 people were killed in drone strikes on a market in South Sudan, officials told Reuters, accusing neighboring Sudan of carrying out the attack in the latest sign that Sudan’s civil war is spilling over its borders. The Sudanese military has yet to comment. The strikes took place in the disputed and oil-rich Abyei region, which has been jointly administered since South Sudan gain…
[dry-run excerpt] As scrutiny over data center investment and AI rises, some commentators are concerned about how expensing interacts with these ongoing investments. Most of these concerns misunderstand what expensing does.
[dry-run excerpt] Hall’s research helped economists understand how taxes distort investment decisions, while his work with Rabushka shows how to minimize those distortions. Although the US remains far from a pure consumption tax, Hall’s work informs efforts to reduce the tax burden on investment, improve neutrality, and promote long-run economic growth.
[dry-run excerpt] Wealth taxes have been a failure everywhere they’ve been tried, which may be why advocates for the California amendment are saying this is a new frontier. But the countries that have tried this gamble know the frontier well, and they’ve left it in the dust.