[dry-run excerpt] The Pulse is a series covering events, insights, and trends within Big Tech and startups. Today, we cover: Time to rethink software security because of AI? A series of high-profile security incidents and breaches took place in a single day, many fueled by AI. Attackers gain advantage by using AI, and defenders will have to respond. Is Anthropic’s new version control system “a rip off”? The creator…
[dry-run excerpt] I’ve been a shareholder in Sea Limited between 2020 and 2022, and I’ve owned MercadoLibre since 2020. I’ve followed the space for years, and Sea has always struck me as a fascinating business. Few companies have demonstrated the ability to reinvent themselves and build entirely new profit pools as successfully. Sea fits the spawner framework popularized by Monish Pabrai: a business that uses the c…
[dry-run excerpt] Recent primers: Aerospace , Exchanges , Fertilizers , Homebuilding , Insurance , Regional Banks . We are delighted to share with you the seventh in-depth research report in our Industry Primers series, this one on natural resources royalty and streaming . The series exists to help fundamental, long-term investors expand and deepen their circle of competence, one industry at a time, and your feedba…
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part Two of the Industry Primers audio program on natural resources royalty and streaming, published by Latticework from MOI Global. It is the deep dive, made for professional investors and for anyone who analyzes these companies for a living. It assumes the ordinary vocabulary of investing and explains only what is specific to this industry, an… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part One of the Industry Primers audio program on natural resources royalty and streaming, published by Latticework from MOI Global. It is the first of two audio programs that accompany the written primer on royalty and streaming companies, and it is the story of the industry, told for a general audience. The account is built from documented scenes, with the people named, the dates given, …
[dry-run excerpt] Adam Rossi is a long-standing Undervalued-Shares.com reader and a forward-thinking leader of a nine-digit single-family office. Here is his take on investing globally. The post “Why I keep buying frontier markets” appeared first on Undervalued Shares .
[dry-run excerpt] Adam Crocker of Logbook Investments presented his thesis on Savills (UK: SVS) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: Savills is a UK real estate adviser founded in 1855, known for luxury UK residential, commercial tenant representation and recurring fee-based services that provide about half of revenue. Adam first researched it in 2014, when it entered the US by buying Studley, and a c…
[dry-run excerpt] While I was absent, something interesting changed on Substack. I like to approach life proactively and wanted you all to hear about it from me rather than from a meter. I also value transparency; this, I hope, has been illuminated as I explain my reasoning and how I arrive at my conclusions throughout our journey together. Since July (right about when I went absent), any reader can run a ‘Pangram …
[dry-run excerpt] Hermès and Rollins are both part of my portfolio and watchlist , so I spent the day going through the latest numbers and listening to their earnings calls to get a better idea of where both businesses currently stand, what we can expect from here and whether the recent weakness could create an interesting entry point. With that being said, let’s dive in! Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This time last year, we published our write-up on Puuilo, a leading Finnish discount retailer . Analyzing the name and understanding the cadence in store openings required some reconciliation on ROIICs, also relative to peers, as leasing distortions warrant context. One of the reasons (or effectively the main one) to own it was and still is the wide competitive gap . Today, investors are being con…
[dry-run excerpt] We held our fifth bi-monthly member call yesterday, with members joining from both sides of the Atlantic. With the AI trade absorbing so much attention, a common thread ran through the hour: many participants are playing defense, finding value in neglected corners while asking how the AI spending cycle might unwind. We closed by discussing how members use AI in their own research. For those who co…
[dry-run excerpt] Mosaic mines potash at three sites in Saskatchewan and phosphate rock in Florida, and it makes about 72% of North America’s concentrated phosphates. In 2025 its potash segment earned $1,183m of adjusted EBITDA, Mosaic’s non-GAAP measure, and left about $930m after capital spending and closure cash, while its phosphate segment used about $207m. In Q2 2026 (April to June 2026) Mosaic sold DAP at $77…
[dry-run excerpt] Ole Søeberg of Nordic Investment Partners presented his thesis on DSV (Denmark: DSV) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: DSV became the world’s largest freight forwarder with its €14.3bn acquisition of DB Schenker, which closed in April 2025 and doubled revenue and staff. Founded in 1976 by Danish hauliers, it has about 147,000 employees in 90 countries and moves 2m tonnes of air an…
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part One of the Latticework Business Intelligence audio program on Mosaic, from Latticework by MOI Global. It is the first of two audio programs that accompany our research report on The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), and it is the story of the company, told for a general audience. The account is built from documented scenes, with the people named, the dates given, and the participants quoted…
[dry-run excerpt] This is Part Two of the Latticework Business Intelligence audio program on Mosaic, from Latticework by MOI Global. It is the second of two audio programs that accompany our research report on The Mosaic Company (NYSE: MOS), and it is the deep dive, made for professional investors and for anyone who analyzes fertilizer producers for a living. It assumes … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] James Emanuel of Rock & Turner presented his thesis on Craneware (UK: CRW) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: Craneware is a Scotland-headquartered, London-listed provider of mission-critical US healthcare SaaS, with all of its customers in the US. Founded in 1999 and listed in 2006, it is still run by its founder-CEO, who owns about 9.5%; insiders hold 31%. Its Trisus platform hel…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Episode 38 of the Preferred Shares Podcast. In this episode, we interview James Davolos, Portfolio Manager and Director of Research of Horizon Kinetics . James gives an overview of Horizon’s contrarian value approach, and we then discuss the broad topic of inflation. We then move onto the types of businesses James feels should benefit from a higher interest rate environment such which a…
[dry-run excerpt] Mark Zuckerberg renamed his company Meta in October 2021 to reflect his ambitions for the metaverse. By the end of 2025, Reality Labs, the division responsible for the project, had lost $77 billion since 2021, while its revenue remained below the 2021 level. In 2022, with the losses mounting and costs rising across the company, he had told analysts that “those who are patient and invest with us wi…
[dry-run excerpt] Juan Huerta de Soto of Cobas Asset Management presented his thesis on Trigano (France: TRI) at European Investing Summit 2026. Thesis summary: Trigano is Europe’s leading recreational vehicle maker, with about 30% of the European motorhome market, 40% in France and 50% in Spain. Motorhomes are 75% of revenues, alongside accessories, mobile homes, trailers and caravans, and the French Feuillet fami…
[dry-run excerpt] Hermès reported Q3 2026 revenue this morning and the stock dropped pretty significantly, marking new 52-week lows! The revenue update comes almost exactly a month after I discussed in I s Hermès “there” yet? whether the stock was finally cheap. Headline organic growth slowed to +4.3%, but the details tell a more interesting story. We are going to probably be bombarded with... Why pay a 30x multipl…
[dry-run excerpt] The index level hides a much more complicated market underneath. The S&P 500 is roughly 1% below its high, while Goldman’s high beta momentum basket is down about 41% from its peak. (Goldman Sachs) Morgan Stanley’s tech momentum basket has recorded 65 daily moves exceeding 5% in either direction this year. That compares with 9 in 2020 and the previous record of 37 in 2000. Extraordinary volatility…
[dry-run excerpt] As expected CPI inflation in Japan picked up in September, and leading indicators point to further upside ahead. Taiwan softened last month, but that is at odds with strong exports. Retail sales, by contrast, were strong, consistent with labour market dynamics explored in a longer note on wages.
[dry-run excerpt] Like so much else in Taiwan, labour market dynamics will be determined by the fortunes of the AI cycle. If that turns down, it will be hugely important. A sharp downturn hasn't, however, been the CBC's expectation, but existing wage trends seem inconsistent with the bank's view that inflation slows.
[dry-run excerpt] Overview 11 days to the US mid terms. With Trump rating’s low, we now hear that nearly 200 people granted clemency by Trump are now suing for compensation, including dozens convicted of attacking or impeding law enforcement employees. Adding to Trump’s woes he has been ordered to sit for deposition in defamation case against BBC by December 11 or face sanctions including the possible dismissal of …
[dry-run excerpt] The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.65% between August and September on a seasonally-adjusted basis, or 8.1% annualized. Consumer spending at retailers, bars, and restaurants jumped by 0.77% , or 9.7% annualized, in September, after rising 1.29% (16.6% annualized) in August. Even more striking, the prices of finished goods and services sold by U.S. businesses (PPI final demand) rose by 1.34% …
[dry-run excerpt] Hello, Haymakers: One of the most important services we attempt to provide to our beloved paid subscribers is to share the insights of the extraordinary collection of financial industry analysts and strategists with whom we regularly communicate. As many of you are aware, Jesse Felder, author of, logically, The Felder Report , is right at the top of the list. Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe now Everywhere I look in markets is pricing the end of the AI trade. It is even turning up in sovereign bonds, with yields now falling, after rising for most of the year. I find it a bit odd, as every physical commodity price I look at is still going up. The issue here is that you have to be sure that equities are accurately pricing the future. SK Hynix has typically been pretty responsi…
[dry-run excerpt] The last time the economy broke, this company had the best years in its history. From 2009 through 2011, banks were failing and home prices were collapsing. Meanwhile, one subsidiary of this little-known company was printing money. Over those three years, the parent’s share of that subsidiary’s profit came to roughly one and a half times what the entire company sells for today, before tax. That wa…
[dry-run excerpt] A brilliant song by a friend of CU. Extremely well-done. I posted it to my YouTube channel, and embedded it below. Catchy - I promise you will not regret listening. Lyrics below. Compression, The End of Moats By Friend of CU Subscribe now Lyrics Oh I remember when they built the towers glass and steel reaching for the sky Billion-dollar monuments to human hours and nobody stopped to ask them why T…
[dry-run excerpt] This will be an interesting article for me to research and write. I threw DCM in the garbage and my AI said I was wrong - pulled it out of the garbage and flagged it for more research. This is a HUMAN vs AI article - who will be right? Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and is not investment advice. Link to YahooFinance HERE When I research stocks for confe…
[dry-run excerpt] Meta has finally joined the “illustrious” Big Tech club of negative free cash flow , whose membership already includes Alphabet and Amazon (perhaps I should add OpenAI and Anthropic to the list as well?). FCF was -$2.1 billion in the quarter, and with the capex guide implying $49-59 billion of spending in the fourth quarter alone, it will be a good deal more negative three months from now. This is…
[dry-run excerpt] Thanks for reading The Dig! This post is public so feel free to share it. Share It’s been a busy few weeks at The Dig headquarters. I’ve been traveling and, unfortunately, struggling a bit to keep up with all of the AI-related news. If it weren’t for my friend and frequent collaborator Olga Usvyatsky to share the burden of eyes and ears open, not sure what I would do! Source: https://posteritati.c…
[dry-run excerpt] Last night, Meta submitted its third-quarter financial results for the period ending September 30. It was a strong quarter overall, the core business continued its solid performance with revenue up 26% year over year, while Reality Labs losses narrowed. However, two developments stood out to me: Free cash flow turned negative for the first time since 2012. Meta announced a new class of non-voting …
[dry-run excerpt] DISCLAIMER: This is not investment advice. PLEASE DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH !!!! Management Summary: Rubis, the French listed Fuel distribution company, represents a potentially interesting Special Situation investment, despite (or because of) the current negative sentiment towards French stocks. On the back of strong earnings momentum (6M earnings +18%), Rubis has almost no exposure to France and has …
[dry-run excerpt] This week’s best investing news: Howard Marks Explains Why Gold & Bitcoin Can’t Be Valued (And Why Gold Has Lagged Stocks) (RWH) Bill Nygren: The Art of Value Investing, AI Valuations & Finding Overlooked Opportunities (CTP) Michael Burry Warns Stock Market Could Be Months Away From A 2000-Style Reckoning — ‘The Preconditions Seem Set For Fireworks’ (Yahoo) Why Value Managers are Looking Beyond th…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode of the Acquirers Podcast, Travis and Carlisle discussed Micron Stock Valuation: Why Cheap Earnings Can Be Misleading. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Tim] Oh yeah. I mean, it’s, it’s, I mean, you look at like Micron for instance. So like you said, I mean, so earnings are growing very rapidly. I mean, this is a period of extreme earnings growth, but then you also ha…
[dry-run excerpt] During their recent episode, Taylor, Carlisle, and Ryan Albert discussed Can South Korea’s Corporate Governance Reforms Unlock Lasting Value?. Here’s an excerpt from the episode: [Ryan] I think the bear case is simply one of the things that I mentioned earlier, which is there’s no precedence. So it will take a while for precedence to happen and maybe foreign investors give up or get tired of all t…
[dry-run excerpt] “Superior investors know—and buy—when the price of something is lower than it should be. And the price of an investment can be lower than it should be only when most people don’t see its merit. Yogi Berra is famous for having said, ‘Nobody goes to that restaurant anymore; it’s too crowded.’ It’s just as nonsensical to say, ‘Everyone realizes that invest… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] By: Wilson Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. That’s how I really feel about my memos over the past 2 weeks. October 8 - AI Fatigue October 14 - I just don’t see how this ends well at all Since April, I have been baffled by the broader market’s move higher. Then June came along; Trump timed the MOU signing with the largest IPO in history, SpaceX, and it all made sense. It was all just a pump job. …
[dry-run excerpt] Trade Alert Long $570,000 of RIG at $6.05 or 94,214 shares. Rationale was explained here . Link to HFI Portfolio . Read more
[dry-run excerpt] My largest holding announced a highly accretive acquisition this week. The market loved the deal, with shares of this company surging more than 15% on the announcement, extending their outperformance versus $XOP since my original write-up : The business has become more valuable as a result of the acquisition, increasing its pro forma free cash flow yield - despite its rising share price! A re-rati…
[dry-run excerpt] No one has walked the walk more than Tim: he moved his family to Dar es Salaam in 2020, started the fund, and delivered 28.6% compound annual returns (in USD) over the last 6 years. This interview was… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] This weekend’s update said “I am constructive on Monday–Tuesday: roughly 60%–65% subjective odds of a higher Monday close for SPY and QQQ , while keeping the Wednesday outlook only moderately bullish” with the “base case, a 750–775 range”. We tested the upper bound of that range as expected on Wednesday and I said to fade the strength largely because “ every major tech earnings reaction” I was tra…
[dry-run excerpt] Subscribe to watch the full Daily Update video Subscribe now Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Photo by Julia Taubitz on Unsplash If you had to pick one number to measure the health of the AI buildout—or, conversely, the probability of an AI bubble—what number would you choose? For AI boosters, the trendy pick might be “GPU rental prices.” Despite all the investment in new AI chips, it costs a quarter more to rent older GPUs than it did a year ago. This tells us that demand for AI computing…
[dry-run excerpt] A defence expert cited by the Times said he could not recall a deployment to the region “that ever came close to 600, except for contingencies like invasions or natural disasters.”
[dry-run excerpt] Imagine a room full of biotech heavyweights, all there for panels hosted by STAT News . That’s where I was last week, and I’ll admit I braced myself. Private-sector innovation and creative thinking are exciting and much needed, but on-stage discussions often miss what’s actually happening on the ground, including needs, access barriers, fears, and hopes for health. Throughout the day, though, ther…
[dry-run excerpt] Sharp Tech is, for the first time, available on video. You have two ways to consume it: YouTube, and here on Stratechery
[dry-run excerpt] The administration says the arch fulfills the “historic design intent” of a proposal from the 1920s. But does it honor history or flout it?
[dry-run excerpt] Banks worry that AI agents are going rogue inside customer accounts.
[dry-run excerpt] Neoliberalism, or more accurately, the inequality it was designed to create, has generated major backlash. But will positive change follow?
[dry-run excerpt] A still from Rock & Roll on the New Long March (2000) Welcome! In this Thursday issue of the Animation Obsessive newsletter, we’re looking at China around the turn of the millennium. Back then, an online Flash craze swept the country. For China, it was the first emergence of indie animation as a major thing. Here was a movement of “artists, designers and … Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome back to Asia Tech Review, your curated digest to keep up to date with tech news across Asia. Grab’s planned expansion into Taiwan, its first move outside of Southeast Asia, is dead after its deal to acquire Foodpanda was blocked by the competition commission. Grab and Uber are rivals, but their close links, including ownership and board membership, raise sufficient concern that the impact …
[dry-run excerpt] I blogged here highlighting the nature of metropolitan growth. Historically, metropolitan growth is characterised by separation of the geographies of residences and workplaces, facilitated by mass transit systems. Accordingly, all great cities are workplaces in the day. This is made possible by mass transit infrastructure that shrinks the commutes from the hinterland and expands the potential work…
[dry-run excerpt] By: Mahi Ramakrishnan Anwar Ibrahim visited Indonesia in 2015. Wikimedia photo There was a time when I thought I was witnessing a political transformation in real time. Anwar Ibrahim, a man many believed carried UMNO’s DNA in his political bloodstream, seemed to be breaking free of it when he broke with his mentor, Mahathir Mohamad. I reported on his tria… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] Share Just recently, New South Wales lawmakers gave final approval to a bill allowing “natural organic reduction”, the conversion of human remains into nutrient-rich soil. Independent MP Alex Greenwich’s proposal passed the upper house after sailing through the lower house, and the bill now awaits assent into law. Once operational, after a minimum two-year lead time, residents will be able to choo…
[dry-run excerpt] I was interviewed by Saurabh Gupta of Earth5R on their Sustainable Futures Podcast: They also posted an article about it here . Here is their podcast page with links to more of their podcasts.
[dry-run excerpt] I’m generally pretty harsh on sell-side Wall Street analysts, and for good reason. For years I’ve watched them with their collective heads up their asses while frauds ran rampant on U.S. exchanges. They don’t take accountability when markets eventually crash and they seem to be just fine with bizarre price targets that, in my opinion, are catnip for fle… Read more
[dry-run excerpt] We revisit history to draw wisdom and strength for forging ahead. Looking back again today, 90 years later, on that period of suffering and glory, we recognize even more profoundly that victory in the Long March was inevitable and that it contained the path to victory by which the Party and the people’s army marched forward with resounding steps. 我们重温历史，是为了汲取奋进的智慧和力量。90年后的今天，再次回望那段苦难辉煌，我们更加深刻认识到，长…
[dry-run excerpt] Why: We’re having our usual round of fall meetups , and San Francisco is one of them. I’m signal-boosting this one because it’s likely to be our biggest, and because I plan to be there. I’ll do a Q&A if the sound system is up for it. When: Saturday, October 24, 1 PM to late afternoon Where: Mox , 1680 Mission St, San Francisco, CA 94103. Please RSVP here for the door code , we will work to make su…
[dry-run excerpt] I wanted to take a moment today, as the market continues to show signs of weakness, to revisit what is increasingly coming into focus as my potential strategy heading into next year. Today’s heatmap (via Finviz) Most of my regular readers know that roughly two months ago, I laid out my expectation that the AI bubble could begin to unravel within the following six to ten months . Since then, we’ve …
[dry-run excerpt] As previously documented in these missives, after my second child was born, I fell apart. I didn’t want to be around family or friends. All the joy had been sucked out of my life. It took me months to call it what it was: depression. When I looked for answers, I found none. Because no one was asking how dads were doing. I didn’t know then what I know now: my life wasn’t just going through a fundam…
[dry-run excerpt] In this special edition of Model Behavior—our series that asks top thinkers, writers, and creatives how they consider and use AI—Substack founder speaks with legendary music producer . Rick writes on Substack, where he shares reflective insights and practical creative exercises drawn from his approach to art and awareness. Rick had questions for Chris about Substack’s decision to introduce the Pan…
[dry-run excerpt] It was the probably worst day in cybersecurity history. So far. Not only is there a critical flaw in PHP that due to a leak was announced a day before the fix would be available, sending most of the internet scrambling for solutions and likely dooming a lot of long tail websites permanently, there were several other unrelated incidents. The floodgates seem to have been opened. I have a market on w…
[dry-run excerpt] I spent two days touring Intel’s most advanced fab and talking to its technical leadership to understand what the chips of the future will look like. A lot of what’s coming next – gate-all-around transistors, backside power, CFET, hybrid bonding – is hard to follow without actually seeing it, so we made all the awesome animated explainers that I wish I had while I was prepping. I also asked Intel’…
[dry-run excerpt] Gulf Economies to Shrink 4.8% This Year, Rebound Strongly in 2027 - IMF The National “ Gulf economies are set to shrink 4.8 per cent this year as the Iran war disrupts energy exports and weighs on non-oil activity, before rebounding 9.1 per cent in 2027, the International Monetary Fund said on Thursday,” The National reports. …“‘While some economies have remained relatively resilient, others have …
[dry-run excerpt] There’s a lot happening at MO on the business side, and we couldn’t be more excited about the future of the community and the tools/research we’re building to bring you the best version of Macro Ops yet. To start, we’ve added three new Operators to our MO team: Dean, Mike G, and Tony. Each is the best at their respective domains and brings differentiated (but complementary) skills to our core MO T…
[dry-run excerpt] Health insurance cost in the US continue to rise to the sky. Guess what? AI is a big driver.
[dry-run excerpt] Painting is by my father, Naum Katsenelson. Prints available on Katsenelson.com A note before we start: this piece began as part of the Fall Letter I sent to IMA clients last week. The rest of that letter dealt with our individual holdings, which is not something I write about publicly. But the section on AI stocks and the pandemic kept growing as I wrote it, and I think it deserves a wider audien…
[dry-run excerpt] Not Investment Advice. Read Disclaimers. One reason that Zoetis has captured the investor’s imagination is because families tend to treat pets as one of their own. They love their furkids, and as a result tend to spare no expense sending their pets to the vet when they fall sick. FreshPet occupies the same mindshare, serving premium fresh dog food for humans who want only the very best when it com…
[dry-run excerpt] I’ve long admired Harris Kupperman, the founder of Praetorian Capital , for his ability to cut through noise and spot big-picture themes before they become consensus. Harris just released his thoughts on markets, AI and his positions in his Q3 investor letter, which I’m happy to share with my subscribers. Harris warns that the long-awaited AI reckoning is finally here, and a broader market crash m…
[dry-run excerpt] Welcome to Speedwell Memos. Our main website is SpeedwellResearch.com . This is a business update on a company we have previously written an in-depth research report on . To read the full research report become a member today . Members get access all of our research reports and all prior updates (most of which are paywalled). You can see a list of all the companies we have written on here . 3Q26 B…
[dry-run excerpt] No one enjoys paying taxes, but the property tax serves an important purpose, and Wyoming has already implemented significant property tax relief. Proposition 1 would undercut local finances to a degree that would likely force reliance on worse taxes (local or state) and prompt spending cuts that reduce homeowners’ property values.
[dry-run excerpt] Nearly half of all hospitals are exempt from paying US corporate income taxes. As healthcare spending rises, lawmakers have questioned whether hospitals are providing as much in community benefits as they derive from tax exemptions.
[dry-run excerpt] Energy is playing a starring role in this year’s most hyped midterm races, particularly for Congressional seats and governors’ offices . But contests further down the ballot can have more direct impacts on rising bills, the grid buildout, and data center expansion. Here are the low-profile races we’re watching this year—and why they deserve more attention: Public utility commissions: These regulat…